Transcript DendroClim 2002 - The Laboratory of Tree

Climate Response with DendroClim 2002
DendroClim 2002
•
Performs classic climate response analyses, moving and evolutionary
correlation and response function analyses for temporal stability tests,
calculates bootstrapped confidence intervals.
•
Developed by Dr. Franco Biondi of the Tree-Ring Laboratory at the
University of Nevada-Reno, with assistance from Scotty Strachan and
Kishor Waikul.
•
Biondi, F. and K. Waikul. DENDROCLIM2002: A C++ program for
statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies.
Computers & Geosciences 30: 303-311.
•
Program has become the standard for testing
the temporal stability of the climate response
in trees before conducting further analyses,
such as reconstructing climate.
•
Available for free download from Dr. Biondi
after notifying him by email.
DendroClim 2002
•
The data used include:
• (1) a tree-ring chronology, which must be in 2-column format (year and
index) –you can obtain this format using program FMT to convert Index
format to any other format.
• (2) climate data, which must be in standard “met” data format, i.e. 12
columns of monthly climate data, each row preceded by the year.
•
Note: the program will ask for the standard temperature and precipitation
data files, does it really does not care about the type of data.
•
For example, each column could instead contain seasonal precipitation
data, PDSI/PHDI data, PRISM data, even streamflow data. It doesn’t
matter.
•
It also does not care about the tree-ring chronology type. You should test
all three chronology types, however, to ensure you choose the one that
has the maximum amount of climate signal.
•
The graphical output is its strongest contribution! Note also that tables are
created and the output from these can easily be imported into Excel.
DendroClim 2002
•
To demonstrate DendroClim 2002, I’m going to use tree-ring data from
bristlecone pine trees growing at the famous Methuselah Walk site that
we developed as part of the 2010 North American Dendroecological
Fieldweek, with the cores courtesy of Dr. Linah Ababneh.
•
The samples have already been crossdated graphically and statistically
using COFECHA. The data set extends from 1895 to 2001.
•
The climate data tested must be inclusive!
• NOAA Divisional Climate Data
• Temperature, Precipitation, SPI, PDSI, PHDI
• PRISM Climate Data (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/)
• Local Station Data (Bishop CA, Independence CA, Mina NV)
• Precipitation, Maximum Temperature, Mean Temperature
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index (Nina3.4)
• Streamflow Data (Big Pine Creek, CA)
DendroClim 2002
•
Met data format, in this case, monthly SPI for NOAA California Climate
Division 03:
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1.18
1.23
-1.38
-2.01
0.33
-0.18
0.75
-1.13
1.04
-0.57
-0.59
1.52
1.16
0.33
2.43
0.53
2.06
0.24
0.42
2.30
0.39
2.23
-1.13
-1.24
-0.59
-2.38
0.89
-0.15
0.15
-0.71
-0.44
-0.23
0.07
-0.26
-1.15
0.71
-0.32
-1.43
-1.22
0.63
1.19
-1.12
1.29
-0.62
0.28
0.22
-0.22
1.01
-0.40
-0.34
-1.25
-1.42
0.37
1.31
0.11
0.57
0.62
0.94
-0.92
-0.49
0.84
-1.54
-0.77
0.60
0.59
1.07
-0.18
0.57
0.79
-2.11
1.38
-0.26
-1.19
0.55
0.96
1.90
-0.07
1.48
2.08
-1.50
-0.16
-0.12
0.83
0.11
-0.24
-2.11
-0.59
0.24
-0.30
1.02
0.28
0.99
-0.02
0.31
-2.11
-0.52
-0.29
-2.11
-0.25
0.19
1.48
-0.75
-1.39
-0.60
-0.01
0.65
0.53
-0.08
0.73
-2.56
0.00
-0.33
-0.90
-1.53
-0.71
0.47
0.94
0.11
0.58
-0.26
-0.94
-0.10
-0.47
-0.65
0.88
-0.87
-0.67
1.53
-0.73
0.81
1.38
0.64
0.58
1.29
-0.52
1.27
0.27
0.74
0.29
0.00
-0.62
-0.58
1.33
1.96
-0.40
0.91
-0.73
-0.82
0.17
0.92
0.75
-0.12
2.27
0.00
0.74
-0.47
-0.75
-0.98
1.59
0.28
0.14
-1.83
1.01
-0.27
0.01
0.84
-0.73
0.21
-0.78
0.24
-0.25
-1.03
-1.00
-0.78
-1.13
-1.20
1.15
1.45
-0.10
-0.41
-1.43
-0.08
0.30
1.75
1.22
-1.31
-0.56
-0.96
-0.17
-1.51
0.13
-0.37
-0.25
1.19
-1.16
0.68
-0.67
-0.81
0.26
0.66
-0.57
-1.50
-1.50
0.15
-0.82
0.50
-1.26
0.32
-0.89
0.11
-1.37
-0.69
-0.52
0.52
-0.33
-0.09
2.43
-0.24
-0.33
1.35
-0.24
-0.09
-1.50
-0.05
-1.50
0.83
-0.42
-1.15
1.06
0.15
-0.16
-0.45
0.75
-0.29
-0.39
0.90
-0.29
1.55
-0.29
-0.50
1.19
-0.34
0.30
-0.12
-0.01
-0.25
-1.50
-1.27
0.19
0.90
-0.88
-0.34
0.03
0.03
-0.04
-1.11
0.94
-0.57
0.87
0.19
0.10
0.81
0.30
-0.45
0.31
0.06
-0.83
0.13
-0.89
-0.04
0.58
-0.46
-0.83
1.38
0.17
0.13
0.13
0.82
0.75
0.83
-0.01
0.66
0.23
0.43
0.25
-0.06
-0.32
1.70
0.60
0.23
0.01
-1.61
1.02
-0.32
0.72
-2.10
-0.14
-1.12
0.41
0.89
-0.50
1.87
1.23
0.56
0.74
-0.65
1.49
-1.43
-1.52
0.45
0.44
0.73
-0.14
-0.76
0.15
-1.50
0.52
-1.47
0.87
-1.52
0.14
-0.50
1.30
-0.25
0.54
-0.73
1.62
0.16
0.27
1.10
-0.29
0.84
-0.20
-0.53
0.92
1.39
0.36
0.83
1.43
-0.40
-0.18
-0.02
-1.67
-0.18
1.35
0.01
-0.68
0.51
1.32
-1.11
0.04
-0.12
-0.24
0.49
-1.12
1.43
-0.26
0.60
-1.36
0.23
-0.18
2.23
0.92
-0.02
0.02
-0.08
-1.60
0.23
-0.99
-0.69
0.03
-1.95
-0.01
-0.87
1.36
1.13
-1.39
0.98
-0.31
-0.67
-0.84
0.99
-0.09
0.58
0.62
-0.47
-0.84
0.40
0.86
1.17
1.23
-1.18
0.39
-0.80
-0.59
-0.32
DendroClim 2002
•
Important concepts:
•
Bootstrapping: a “resampling” technique that allows estimation of a sampling
distribution, especially when the sample size is small or the underlying
distribution is unknown (both occur in dendroclimatology).
•
Moving Response Functions: calculated over a moving window of years,
determined either by the software or by the user (35-40 yr window is most
common).
•
Evolutionary Response Functions: similar, but the first year or last year is
fixed and additional years are added to the window over time.
•
Temporal Stability: both are used to test the stability of the climate-tree
growth relationship over time. If the relationship is NOT stable, then the
principle of uniformitarianism does not hold.
•
Response Function Analysis ≠ Correlation Analysis! RFA uses principal
components multiple regression to determine climate relationship with tree
growth.
•
In the color-coded graphics, each box represents the last year in the moving
window. Very important to know this!
DendroClim 2002
•
Explanation of moving and evolutionary interval analyses:
DendroClim 2002
•
The DendroClim 2002 Main Menu, very simple interface:
Figure 5. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs PRISM
monthly precipitation.
Figure 6. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs
CA07 monthly precipitation.
Figure 7. Moving correlation analysis: residual
chronology vs CA07 monthly SPI.
Figure 8. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs
Independence monthly ppt.
Figure 9. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs
PRISM monthly max. temp.
Figure 10. Moving correlation analysis: residual
chronology vs Bishop monthly max. temp.
Figure 11. Moving correlation analysis: standard chronology vs CA07
monthly PDSI.
Figure 12. Moving correlation analysis: standard chronology vs
monthly PDO.
Figure 14. Moving correlation analysis: residual
chronology vs Big Pine Creek streamflow.
DendroClim 2002
•
Summary of our climate analyses:
PRISM May Temp