Transcript Bild 1 - Chalmers

Global change
Examiner:
Guest lecturers:
Bertil Dynefors
Jee-Hoon Jeong
Johan Mellqvist
From Atm science
centre
Lecturs of 2 or 3 hours according to schedule.
Examination:
Main examination.
- three packages of homework
the last one far more extensive than the
others.
Additional examination
- short written examination of 2 hours
on Nov 4
Topics of the course:
-The concept and meaning of Global change.
- Air pollutants. Example: carbon monoxide
- Soil acidification
- The stratosphere and global change
- Permafrost
- Solar winds and climate change
- Clouds or terrestrial responses
- Guest lectures
- radiation and atmosphere
- aerosols and climate
- climate modelling
Hemsida:http://fy.chalmers.se/~funbd/GC/GC-11-index.htm
check also GUL
Global change and international operators
-How do we identify and confirm Global changes?
-How do we find out the consequences of Global changes?
- Who is responsible to take actions due to global changes?
In this course ”Global change” is a change in the natural system,
atmosphere, land, sea.
We also mean such changes which are caused by anthropogenic
activities and are of detrimental effects on health or environment.
Toward global attention
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Suppose that a situation we study will be of global concern.
To whom do we turn?
Maybe, after a while, to the national environmental protection
agency.
They most certainly will ask: what is your evidences of changes and
what is the evidences of negative effects of the changes.
If you are successful, your supposition can reach the inernational
level and international organizations. Which are they?
UN  UNEP (United Nations Environment programme)
WHO (World Health Organization)
OECD– on the relation between economy and environment
Some rich and developed countries have organizations of global range
like
- US with its EPA
- EU with its correspondning EEA( European environment agency)
What is the authorization of these organizations?
One of UNEP’s main functions since its inception at the
Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment in 1972
is to keep under review the world environmental situation, as
mandated by UN General Assembly resolution 2997 (XXVII).
By carrying out this function, UNEP is to ensure that
emerging environmental problems of wide international
significance receive appropriate and adequate considerations
by Governments.
Environmental Governance
UNEP has a rich history assisting governments in obtaining environmental
information for decision-making, enhancing global and regional environmental
cooperation, developing and applying national and international environmental law,
advancing national and regional implementation of environmental objectives, and
bridging major groups and governments in policy development and implementation
processes.
DEWA
The Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA) provides timely,
scientifically credible, policy-relevant environmental analyses, data and information
for decision-making and action planning for sustainable development. It monitors,
analyzes and reports on the state of the global environment, assesses global and
regional environmental trends and provides early warning of emerging
environmental threats.
Working through five sections at headquarters in Nairobi and six regional offices,
DEWA also maintains an office at the UNEP World Conservation Monitoring
Centre (UNEP - WCMC) in Cambridge, UK and administers the Secretariat for
the United Nations Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR)
in Vienna, Austria
The Division works closely with a large number of partners and collaborating
centres in all regions of the world and has established functional networks for
data, information, assessments and capacity development.
Science is at the foundation of UNEP’s work and its Science Strategy aims to
lay out a clear pathway for strengthening this cornerstone in the service of
member states and to reinforce its work on the science-policy interface.
ABOUT GEO
Keeping the global environment under review
Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is a consultative,
participatory process that builds capacity for conducting
integrated environmental assessments for reporting on the
state, trends and outlooks of the environment. GEO is also
a series of products that informs environmental decisionmaking and aims to facilitate the interaction between
science and policy.
The rigorous assessment process aims to make GEO
products scientifically credible and policy relevant providing information to support environmental
management and policy development. GEO also supports
multi-stakeholder networking and intra and inter-regional
cooperation to identify and assess key priority
environmental issues at the regional levels.
EU
Environment Protecting, preserving and improving
the world around us
The EU has some of the highest environment standards in the
world, developed over decades to address a wide range of
issues. Today the main priorities are combating climate change,
preserving biodiversity, reducing health problems from
pollution and using natural resources more responsibly.
Priority tasks by the international organizations, when they
are paid attention to a possible Global change
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To measure and observe. To built up a monitoring system.
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To verify and establish possible health and environmental effects.
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To propose standards and try to enact legislation
Increasing global divergence in population trends — global megatrend 1
Living in an urban world — global megatrend 2
Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics — global megatrend 3
Accelerating technological change: racing into the unknown — global megatrend 4
Continued economic growth? — global megatrend 5
From a unipolar to a multipolar world — global megatrend 6
Intensified global competition for resources — global megatrend 7
Decreasing stocks of natural resources — global megatrend 8
Increasingly severe consequences of climate change — global megatrend 9
Increasing environmental pollution load — global megatrend 10
Environmental regulation and governance: increasing fragmentation and convergence — global
megatrend 11
climate change
stratospheric ozone
forest clearance and land cover changes
Global changes
land degradation and desertification
wetland loss and damages
biodiversity loss
freshwater depletion and contamination
urbanization and its impact
damage to coastal reefs and ecosystems
Air pollution
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Indoor air pollution is estimated to cause approximately 2 million
premature deaths per year. Half due to pneumonia in children
under 5 years of age.
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Outdoor air pollution is estimated to cause 1,3 million deaths per
year.
What is an air pollutant?
There are hundreds, maybe thousands of polluting gases in the
atmosphere.
Further there are plenty of different aerosol particles.
The pollutants can be homogenously distributed in the atmosphere or
it can be variation in mixing ratios as function of time and space.
Effects are usually stated in terms of influence on human health or on
the environment.
Let us study a specific air pollutant and illustrate some general
problems with this specific example.
Carbon monoxide as an example of global change air pollutant.
Concentrations in Gothenburg the last seven days.
CO concentrations Göteborg January 2011
Carbon monoxide, CO
Average value
Diurnal peak value
Highest hourly average
Highest 8‐hours average
98%‐il 8‐hours
626
Femman
326
1049
1273
Haga
447
804
2304
Mob
294
1021
808
1847
1340
1210
871
1700
Typical CO concentrations
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0,1 ppm
0,5-5 ppm
5-15 ppm
100-200 ppm
5000 ppm
7000 ppm
natural atmosphere level
average levels in homes
modern vehicle exhaust emission
exhaust Mexico city
exhaust from wood fire
exhasut from car without catalytic converter
Oktober 2009
CO-concentration
Januari 2010
CO-concentration
Mars 2010
CO-concentration
CO measurements
WMO
In Europe, emissions of many air pollutants
have fallen substantially since 1990, resulting in
improved air quality over the region. However,
since 1997, measured concentrations of
particulate matter and ozone in the air have
not shown any significant improvement despite
the decrease in emissions.
Emissions of carbon monoxide
Table 3-1. Summary of Major Sources and Sinks of Carbon Monoxide
Sources and Sinks
Sources
Notes
Fossil fuel combustion
Transportation and coal, oil, and natural gas burning
Biomass burning
Agricultural clearing, wood and refuse burning, and
forest fires
Methane (CH4) oxidation
Wetlands agriculture (rice cultivation, animal husbandry,
and biomass burning), landfills, coal mining, and natural gas
and petroleum industry
Non-methane hydrocarbon
(NMHC) oxidation
Transportation (alkanes, alkenes, and aromatic compounds)
and vegetation (isoprene and terpenes)
Organic matter oxidation
Humic and other organic substances in surface waters and
soils
Metabolic by-product
Vegetation
Sinks
Reaction with OH radicals
Hydroxyl radicals are ubiquitous scavengers of many atmospheric
pollutants.
Soil microorganisms
Responsible microorganisms still need to be cataloged.
The tropospheric burden of carbon monoxide, like that of many other trace gases,
has been increasing due to man’s activities, although its upward trend ceased
around 1995. Average CO abundances for the NH and SH are approximately 110
and 60 nmole/mole (ppb). The lifetime of CO is on the order of a few months only,
and its significance in atmospheric chemistry lies mainly in its competition with
many other gaseous pollutants—importantly the greenhouse gas CH4—for the
hydroxyl radical (OH, CO + OH → CO2 + H). Increased CO emissions cause
higher CO burdens and more reaction with OH, leaving less OH for cleansing the
troposphere of other reduced gases. In the background troposphere, about one
third of all OH is removed by CO that reacts rapidly with OH (contributing to the
latter’s very short lifetime of 1 second only).
Until recently, we were mostly informed about tropospheric CO concentrations via
surface measurements. Now, results from remote sensing and an increasing number
of aircraft flights give improved global coverage and some vertical resolution. Since
the launch of the MOPITT satellite instrument, followed by SCIAMACHY, AIRS and
others, we have a much better picture of large scale continental pollution plumes.
The vertical resolution of satellite based remote sensing is limited to several km at
best, and vertical profiles coordinated with satellite overpasses are needed to
better define vertical variability. Before the satellite, surface and aircraft
measurements are combined, their relative calibration must be accurately
determined.
Health effects of CO
The Administrator of EPA concluded that cardiovascular effects, as
measured by decreased time to onset of angina pain and by decreased time
to onset of significant electrocardiogram (ECG) ST-segment
depression, were the health effects of greatest concern to be clearly
associated with CO exposures at levels observed in the ambient air. These
effects were demonstrated in angina patients at postexposure COHb
levels that were elevated to 2.9 to 5.9% (CO-Oximetry [CO-Ox]
measurement), representing incremental increases of 1.5 to 4.4% from
baseline levels. Time to onset of significant ECG ST-segment change, which
is indicative of myocardial ischemia in patients with documented coronary
artery disease and a more 1-4 objective indicator of ischemia than angina
pain, provided supportive evidence of health effects occurring at exposures
as low as 2.9 to 3.0% COHb (CO-Ox). The clinical importance of
cardiovascular effects associated with exposures to CO resulting in COHb
levels less than 2.9% remains less certain and was considered only in
evaluating whether the current CO standards provide an adequate margin
of safety.
Mechanisms of Action for CO
The principle cause of CO toxicity is tissue hypoxia caused by CO
binding to hemoglobin (Hb) and failure of vasodilation to compensate
for the reduced oxygen delivery. Secondary mechanisms related to
intracellular uptake of CO have been the focus of recent research.
Current knowledge summarized in this document suggests that the
most likely protein other than Hb to be inhibited functionally at
relevant levels of COHb is myoglobin, found in heart and skeletal
muscle. The extent of effects caused by CO molecules
in solution needs to be evaluated in relation to typical ambient CO
exposures in the population. Other mechanisms of interest, which
have not yet been demonstrated to occur at ambient CO levels, are
cytotoxic effects (e.g., vasomotor control, free oxygen radicals)
independent of impaired oxygen delivery.
On April 30, 1971, EPA promulgated identical primary and
secondary NAAQS for CO at levels of
10 mg/m3 (9 ppm) for an 8-h average and 40 mg/m3 (35 ppm) for a
1-h average, not to be exceeded more than once per year.
On August 18, 1980, EPA proposed changes to the standard (Federal
Register, 1980) based on the findings of the revised criteria. The
proposed changes included (1) retaining the 8-h primary standard
level of 9 ppm, (2) revising the 1-h primary standard level from 35
ppm to 25 ppm,
On August 1, 1994, EPA issued a final decision (Federal Register, 1994)
that revisions of the NAAQS for CO were not appropriate at that
time.
Air pollution
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgates the
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) on the basis of an
up-to-date compilation of scientific knowledge about the relationship
between various concentrations of ambient air pollutants and their
adverse effects on man and on the environment.