Transcript No Slide Title

“Possible R&D Futures for
the Canadian Oil and Gas Industry”
Bruce R. Peachey, MCIC, P.Eng.
On Forecasts & Opinions
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Opinions are like watches; no two are ever the
same; but each believes their own.
Forecasts are science-fiction.
• Predicting R&D breakthroughs and examining their impacts is
needed to focus and stimulate research efforts. Where would
NASA be without Jules Verne or Star Trek?
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Forecasts help plan to meet future needs.
• Directionally correct; precisely wrong.
R&D Needs Identification
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Key Sources:
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Petroleum Technology Alliance Canada (PTAC)
Canadian Oilsands Network for R&D (CONRAD)
Panel on Energy Research and Development (PERD)
Alberta Chamber of Resources (ACR)
Experience with New Paradigm Development
Petroleum Technology Alliance
Canada (PTAC)
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Objective:
• Technology for WCSB conventional oil and gas.
• Fill the R&D gap left by downsizing of the majors.
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Activities:
• Focused on the process of collaboration. Put researchers
together with funding.
• Open to membership by individuals ($100) and major producers
($11,000)
• Workshops to highlight needs --> generate proposals
Canadian Oilsands Network for R&D (CONRAD)
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Objective:
• Share expensive R&D infrastructure for Oil Sands
development
• Work on common problems/issues through collaboration
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Activities:
• Generation of projects that members opt into
• Membership Oil Sands Producers, Government Research
Organizations
• Sub-Committees to focus effort and set goals
Panel on Energy Research & Development (PERD)
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Objective:
• Provide support to energy resource development through
additional funding to Federal researchers.
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Activities:
• Several Tasks - Total 1998/99 Budget $54 million
• Tasks - Energy Efficiency, Energy & Climate Change,
Transportation, Renewable Energy and Hydrocarbons with
input from industry
• Hydrocarbons $15.6 million. Planning Study in 1998 to
provide input on needs.
Alberta Chamber of Resources (ACR)
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Objective:
• Ensure Alberta resource development remains competitive in
a Global Environment
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Activities:
• Form focus task groups - Oil Sands, Blackoil Pipelines,
Carbon Dioxide Utilization
• Membership open to small and large firms.
• Commissions studies to evaluate external forces and initiate
actions in response.
New Oil & Gas Developments
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Horizontal Wells
• Enhance reservoir access with less surface impact.
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3-D, 4-D and Comparative Seismic
• Understanding the reservoirs and how fluid flows.
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Downhole Oil/Water Separation/Processing
• Remove contaminants at or near the source.
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Oil Sands Mining, Extraction, Upgrading
• Cost/bbl reduced from $35 to $13 and potentially lower.
Planning for the Future
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R&D will be based on Collaboration
• Meet needs of producers, inventors, researchers,
manufacturers, governments and the public.
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Main Canadian industry threats or opportunities
will be from Global factors
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World Oil Price Fluctuations
Venezuelan/Mexican Heavy Oil Production
Increasing Energy Demand - Decreasing Reserves
Global Climate Change Impacts
What Specifically is Needed?
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Oil Sand Mining
• Improved Upgrading Processes
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Oil Sands In-Situ
• Improved Energy Utilization
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Conventional Heavy Oil
• Opportunity to Improve Access
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Convention Oil
• Enhance Recovery of Original Oil in Place (OOIP)
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Natural Gas
• Reduce Energy Costs of Compression
Critical Change Analysis
Current State
More or less
Defined
Change
Needed
Outcome 4
…..etc.
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Outcome 3
Synthetic Crude Production 1970-1996
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Thousands Cubic Metres
Oil-Sands Mining
(Synthetic Crude)
Upgrading Hydrogen Supply
Costs and CO2
Emissions High
Improve
Upgrading
Processes
Low cost CO2
Disposal Process
Upgrading
Breakthrough
Improved
Methane
Reforming
Catalysts
Find a use
for CO2
from
Reforming
Bitumen Production 1970-1996
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Thousands Cubic Metres/yr
Oil Sands In-situ
(Bitumen)
Thermal
Recovery
Energy
Intensive
Improve
Energy
Utilization
Co-Generation on
Surface
Monitoring of
Reservoir
Distribution
Control of
Reservoir
Heating
In-Situ
Upgrading
Conventional Heavy Oil Production 1971-1996
30000
20000
10000
0
Thousands Cubic Metres/yr
Conventional Heavy Oil
Large
Volumes of
Sand - Poor
Access
Turn Into
Opportunity
Enhanced In-Situ
Separation
Produce
the
Reservoir
Stir Up the
Reservoir
Access
Without
Casing
Conventional Oil Production 1971-1996
120,000
80,000
40,000
0
Thousands Cubic Metres/yr
Conventional Oil
High Cost of
Injectants for
EOR
Low Cost
Injectant
Supplies
Air or
Oxygen
Alternate Water
Sources
Carbon
Dioxide
Nitrogen
Natural Gas Production 1971-1996
160,000
120,000
80,000
40,000
0
Million Cubic Metres/yr
Co-generation in
Gas Treating
Natural Gas
10-15% of Gas
Used for Fuel
Reduce
Fuel
Costs
Gas Liquefaction
for Pipelines
Geothermal
Co-generation
Technology
Acid Gas
Injection
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1958
Source: Statistics Canada
CO2 Emissions
(Megatonnes)
CO2 Emissions
(Tonnes per
Capita)
1968
1978
1988
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
CO2 Emissions
(Tonnes per Capita)
CO2 Emissions
(Megatonnes)
Canadian Fossil Fuel Emissions
Environmental Responses
Oil & Gas
Industry Major
Emitter
Focus on
End-Use
Public
Information
Better
Lifestyle
Decisions
Full-Cycle
Analysis of
Energy
Alternatives
Producers
vs... Users
Sharing
Comments on Other Futures
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Hydrocarbon Use will not go Away
• Will remain largest Global energy source.
• “Renewables” not all environmentally friendly
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Coal Bed Methane - Newest Source
• Enhanced contact for CO2 to CH4 exchange.
• Potential for major impacts on industry
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Natural Gas Hydrates - Unlikely Source
• Energy required to produce likely higher than energy
contained.
Oil and Gas Industry R&D Supporting the 3R’s
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Reduce - Main R&D thrust = Efficient use
• Life Vs.. Lifestyle and reduce energy waste
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Reuse - All energy/processing industries will
become more integrated
• Co-generation with waste heat, minimize hauling of wastes or
intermediate products
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Renewal - Oil and Gas Industry has lots of room to
adapt to change.
For Chemical Engineers
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Will likely be considerable work to do
Future will demand
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Flexibility
Broad Knowledge Base
Collaboration between industries
Innovative Ideas
Everyone should look forward to:
“Living in Interesting Times!”
Acknowledgments
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Clients - NRCan & PERD, Oil & Gas Producers
Alliance Partners - C-FER Technologies Inc.,
KR Croasdale & Associates, R&D 2000, Colin
Gosselin
Contact Networks - CSChE, PTAC, ACR, CIM,
SPE, CAPP, individual colleagues
New Paradigm Affiliates - KeyTech Energy Inc. &
Avatar Systems Inc.
Family and Friends
Contact Information
Advanced Technology Centre
9650-20 Avenue
Edmonton, Alberta
Canada T6N 1G1
tel: 780.450.3613
fax: 780.462.7297
email: [email protected]
web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca