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Rohan Samarajiva & Nuwan Waidyanatha
IDRC-CIDA workshop
12 July 2007, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka
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Early warning systems in disasterrisk reduction
Agenda



Different communication technologies
ERP [Emergency Response Planning] training v no training
Organized villages vs. less organized villages
 Findings






Efficacy of Hazard Info Hub at SCMDC
Reliability of technologies
Reliability of systems
Training
Organizational development
Women
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 Disaster risk reduction: what must be done
 The LIRNEasia-Sarvodaya community-based approach to
early warning
 Pilot project research design
Sri Lanka on December 26th, 2004
One in 500 died in Sri Lanka without one minute of official warning
With a few insignificant exceptions,
a world without ICTs
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Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
Physical world where originates
hazards occur
How ICTs should be deployed
Warnings
Physical world where
hazards occur
Warnings
More time to run; more lives saved
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Mass media
Mediated
interpersonal
Symbolic world
where action
originates
Who should act?
 Early warning is a classic public good
 Government must supply
 Early warning is based on incomplete, probabilistic
information and judgment
 75% of tsunami warnings in the Pacific are false; false
warnings can be dangerous
 Community preparedness (e.g., “tsunami ready”
designations in the US) is vital
 But if government appears unready to act . . .
 Second-best options must be explored
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 Government must take the responsibility
Early warning chain (standard form)
National early
warning
center
First responders
Citizens
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Media
Early warning chain (community based;
applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project)
National early
warning
center
SCDMC
From domestic &
international
sources
ICT ERP2
Guard
ians
ERP3
ERP4
Villagers
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ERP1
Pilot project design, 32 villages
With ERP Training
Urawatha
(Galle)
AREA +
RAD
Modarapallas
sa
(Hambantota
)
VSAT
Modaragama
(Hambantota
)
AREA +
RAD
Kalmunai II
(Kalmunai)
MoP
Nidavur
(Batticalo)
AREA +
FxP
Wathegama
North
(Matara)
MoP
Diyalagoda
(Kalutara)
AREA +
FxP
Samudragam
a
(Trincomalee
FxP
AREA
MoP
MoP
FxP
AREA
AREA +
MoP
AREA +
RAD
AREA +
FxP
AREA +
MoP
Palmunnai
(Batticalo)
Control Village
Abeyasinghepu
ra
(Ampara)
Karathivu
(Kalmunai)
Munnai
(Jaffna)
Control
Village
Modara
(Colombo)
FxP
AREA
MoP
FxP
Thirukadalar
(Trincomale
e)
Periyakallar
(Batticalo)
AREA +
MoP
Valhengoda
(Galle)
Moratuwella
(Colombo)
Panama North
(Ampara)
Control Village
Mirissa South
(Matara)
Meddhawatha
(Matara)
Thondamanar
(Jaffna)
MoP
Saturkondagnya
(Batticallo)
AREA +
RAD
Venamulla
(Galle)
Thambiluvil
(Kalmunai)
Samodhagama
(Hambantota)
AREA +
FxP
Kottegoda
(Matara)
Oluville
(Kalmunai)
Indivinna
(Galle)
AREA +
MoP
Thallala
South
(Matara)
Maggona
(Kalutara)
AREA
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Sarvodaya Stage Sarvodaya
1, 2, 3
Stage 4
VSAT
No ERP Training
Brahamanawattha
(Galle)
Control
Village
Thalpitiya
(Kalutara)
AREA: Addressable Radio for Emergency Alerts, Class B configuration of WorldSpace System
MoP: Java enabled Mobile Phone, Dialog-Microimage innovation MiDews application
RAD: Remote Alarm Device, Dialog-University-of-Moratuwa Innovation
FxP: CDMA Wireless Fixed Phones with 1xRTT functions, Sri Lanka Telecom
VSAT: Very Small Aperture Terminals coupled with Internet Public Alerting System InnovativeTech & Solana Networks
Research questions
 How important is training?
 How significant is the level of organization in the
village?
 How does the intervention affect women?
 Will the ICTs be integrated into everyday
life?
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 What technology is best for reaching the
community?
 What emergency response plans are best for
saving lives of villagers?
CDMA Fixed Phone
GSM Mobile Phone
Addressable Radios for Emergency
Alerts
Remote Alarm Device
Very Small Aperture
Terminals
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ICTs used in reaching communities
Reliability of technologies &
systems
HIH-Monitor
t0
Reliability is the difference
between the time it takes
HIH Monitor to issue the
CAP message and the time
the message is received
by the ICT Guardian.
Download Alert()
Activate HIH ERP()
T0
t1
Resolve CAP Alert()
Reliability is the
difference between the
time it takes HIH Monitor
to receive message and
the time the message is
received by the
Community.
Activate ICTG ERP()
Acknowledge
T1
ERP Coordinators
Dissemminate
t2
T2
Report Status
Relay Results
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ICT Guardian
Relay Alert
Activate Community ERP()
Early warning chain (community based;
applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project)
National early
warning
center
From domestic &
international
sources
SCDMC
HIH
ICT ERP2
Guard
ians
ERP3
ERP4
Villagers
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ERP1
Evaluation of Hazard Info Hub (HIH)
actions
Reliability of HIH Monitor Tasks
1.00
Average
Variance
0.7725
0.0609
Reliability
0.81
0.69
A
Task
Is
su
e
pp
ro
va
l
O
I
E
A
ck
no
w
le
dg
em
en
t
D
ow
nl
oa
d
0.39
HIH Monitor
Message Relay
Process
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0.97
Expected value = 95%
Download was quick because the simulation was staged within a defined three-hour
time period. Acknowledgement was rare, possibly because they knew it was a drill.
Event of Interest step was time consuming (2-page form) and needs improvement.
Approval was instantaneous because the SCDMC Director was on premises during
drills. Issue of alert took time because Each ICT required its own interface to issue the
alert.
What is being measured . . .
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 difference between the time it takes HIH
Monitor to issue the CAP message and the
time the message is received by the ICT
Guardian
Reliability of technology connecting
HIH to ICT Guardians (inner circle)
Reliability of ICT Configurations in Last Mile Hazard Warning System
0.89
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.17
AREA
FXP
MOP
AREA+FXP
AREA+MOP
ICT Configuration in Community
AREA+RAD
None
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Reliability
0.67
Coupled ICTs performed better than individual ICTs with the AREA + FXP
combination being most reliable. Of the stand alone devices AREA is the most
reliable with 13 of 16 working; The community had difficulty in installing and
maintaining the MiDews Java applet on their MOPs and 7 of 10 participating MOPs
failed; RADs were not tested as stand alone devices. FXP and MOP failed in NorthEast due to services being deactivated due to war.
Early warning chain (community based;
applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project)
National early
warning
center
SCDMC
From domestic &
international
sources
ICT ERP2
Guard
ians
ERP3
ERP4
Villagers
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ERP1
What is being measured. . .
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 difference between the time it takes HIH
Monitor to receive message and the time the
message is received by the Community
Reliability of systems (outer circle)
Effectiveness of ICT Confiurations in Last-Mile Hazard Warninig
System
AR
EA
+R
AD
XP
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ICT Configuration in Community
AR
EA
+F
O
P
AR
EA
+M
O
P
M
FX
P
0.13
0.07
VS
AT
0.09
0.08
AR
EA
0.69
0.43
0.39
RA
D
Effectiveness
0.7
AREA alone is unidirectional. Stand-alone AREA, RAD, and VSAT score low
because alerts received in English only; all other ICT configurations accommodate
three languages. Using a combination of FXP or MOP coupled with one-way
Satellite communication device AREA is most effective because it
- Provides larger geographic coverage with Satellite covering GSM and CDMA
shadow areas
- Increases bi-directional capabilities of communities to report local events to
the Hub
- Language diversity reduces ambiguity in messages
Effects of training of ICT Guardians
& ERP Coordinators
0.96
0.94
AREA
0.93
FXP
MOP
RAD
ICT Name
Trained
Untrained
0.87
0.99
VSAT
NONE
0.72
0.63
AREA
0.67
0.83
0.74
0.71
0.63
0.58
0.59
FXP
MOP
RAD
ICT Name
Trained
Untrained
VSAT
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1.00
0.99 0.99 0.99
0.99
0.97
Reliability of ICT w.r.t Training Regime
for ERP Coordinators
Reliability
Reliability
Reliability of ICT w.r.t Training Regime
for ICT Guardians
NONE
All 28 ICT Guardians received training. Only 16 of 32 Community ERP
Coordinators received ERP Training. ICT Guardians were coached during
live-exercises; random events over longer period would show different
results. ERP Coordinators were also coached therefore results are not
accurate. Still could not reach the required level.
Effect of organizational level of
villages
Reliability of ICTs w.r.t Organizaional Level
0.46
Reliability
0.43
0.29
0.28
0.17 0.17
0.13
0.13
AREA
FXP
MOP
RAD
VSAT
NONE
ICT Name
Stage 4 and 5
Stage 1, 2, & 3
Organizational capacity is unimportant in the adoption of existing
technologies such as Mobile and Fixed Phones. This is also evident from
the Control Villages, which used their own Mobile Phones and Fixed
Phones. Organizational capacity is important when adopting new
technologies such as AREA. Unfortunately RAD was not tested in less
organized villages. It is easier to organize disaster preparedness
activities in organized villages.
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0.09
Distribution of Male vs Female in Hazard
Mitigation
Adult
Female
72%
Adult Male
Adult Female
72% of adult participants were female because the simulations were
conducted between 0900 and 1200hrs when most men were out of
the home. The women showed enthusiasm and willingness to
participate in disaster management activities. High participation of
children occurred because the mothers brought their children along
as they could not be left at home alone.
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Adult Male
28%
Integration of ICTs into everyday life
 Expected to get data from
 Diaries that had been provided
 From use records
 Dairies were not maintained
 Use was very low
 In some cases, District Sarvodaya Offices has
reclaimed the phones for use in urgent IDP activities
 Appeared that people thought we did not want them to
use the ICTs for other purposes and did not volunteer
information such as listening to BBC on AREA sets
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 Both failed because
Conclusions
 Need to integrate management of all disaster projects
 Think beyond project horizon (has already started
through strategic planning process)
 Robust early warning for community-based approach
(as opposed to direct-to-citizen approach) requires
 Bidirectionality of media, for local reporting and
acknowledgement  No stand-alone AREA sets
 CAP compliance and ability to send long messages in
multiple languages  AREA sets in combination with
other media
 Mobile has potential, after software problems solved,
but script limitations make it a distinct also-ran
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 Critically important to get SCDMC running as a 24/7
operation and to have disaster risk-reduction
embedded as a central element of the worldview of
all at Sarvodaya
Conclusions
 A community-based approach requires
 No conclusive evidence, but training through periodic
simulations may be more effective than conventional
training
 No conclusive evidence, but integration into everyday
activities may not be very important in the case of
AREA+
 No conclusive evidence, but women are unlikely to be
marginalized from community-based approaches in
Sri Lanka
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 Training, both for ICT Guardians and for ERP
Coordinators
 Higher organizational levels
Project-specific conclusions
 Example: change from strict adherence to “notraining” condition in the face of demands from
villages
 Substitution of ham radios by other technologies
 Those closest to the action know best
 Project Director and IDRC Task Managers gave the
main players the freedom to run the project
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 Pilot projects on truly novel problems require
imagination and flexibility