Building & Infrastructure Martyn Hulme

Deputy Chair of the AGMA Environment Commission & Managing Director of Co-operative Estates

Adapting the city

Buildings and infrastructure workshop EcoCities research summary

Jeremy Carter

Research Fellow, University of Manchester, School of Environment & Development

Recent trends in GM weather and climate events

Weather/ climate event Flood Storm Cold Fog Heat Drought Air Quality Smog Number of recorded events across GM (1945-2008)

158 85 63 28 22 8 7 6

% of total recorded events across GM (1945-2008)

41.9

22.5

16.7

7.4

5.8

2.1

1.9

1.7

Consequences of weather/climate events in GM

Receptor type Total number of recorded consequences (1945-2008) % of total recorded consequences (1945-2008)

Critical infrastructure 155 37.5% Health and wellbeing Natural environment 128 56 31% 13.6% Built environment Social and emergency infrastructure 54 20 13.1% 4.8%

Critical infrastructure and the built environment in GM

Weather/ climate event Floods Storms Cold Fog Heat Drought Critical infrastructure (1945-2008)

Number of events 61 % of total events 39.5

25 39 16 8 6 16.1

25.2

10.3

5.2

3.9

Built environment (1945-2008)

Number of events 18 % of total events 33.3

30 3 0 3 0 55.6

5.7

0 5.7

0

Susceptibility of GM infrastructure to flood risk • • • • 7% of hazardous substance instillations in flood zone 3 6% of motorway junctions in flood zone 3 5% of fire stations in flood zone 3 2.4% educational establishments in flood zone 3

The EcoCities Spatial Portal Mapping flood zones 2 and 3, and educational establishments.

Mapping the urban heat island and residential care homes.

Weather/climate event

Fluvial floods (inc. more winter rainfall) Pluvial floods (inc. more winter rainfall) Storms (inc. high winds) Cold events Heat waves (inc. higher temps) Air quality (inc. smog)

Projections for Greater Manchester Increasing:

events.

Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall

Increasing:

events.

Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall

Variable:

Possible fall in summer storms. Possible rise in winter gales. More wind storms.

Decreasing:

Winter temps increasing. Winter night time minimum temps increasing.

Increasing:

Increasing summer temps. Higher summer night time and warmest summer day temps.

Decreasing:

Fewer blocking anticyclones under some metrics Drought (inc. fall in summer rainfall)

Increasing:

Fall in summer rainfall. Increase in summer temp.

Weather/ climate event projections Implications for critical infrastructure

Fluvial floods (inc more winter rainfall)

Increasing

- Damage to infrastructure - Service disruption - Silting/overtopping of reservoirs - Landslips on road/rail networks - Damage to bridges Pluvial floods (inc more winter rainfall)

Increasing

- Damage to infrastructures - Service disruption - Treatment of polluted runoff - Urban drainage capacity pressure

Implications for the built environment

- Internal and external building damage - Risk of slope instability - Internal and external building damage - Increased damp risk in buildings

Weather/ climate event projections

Heat waves (inc higher temperature)

Increasing

Drought (inc less summer rainfall)

Increasing Implications for critical infrastructure

- Less water for cooling power stations - Impact on water utility planning and processes - Soil shrinkage and subsidence

Implications for the built environment

- Higher energy demand for cooling - Water supply constraints - Risk of rails buckling and roads deteriorating - Soil shrinkage and subsidence - Higher rates of deterioration of concrete - Internal overheating of some buildings - Soil shrinkage and subsidence - Less water for building maintenance

Human comfort in office buildings • Productivity and health of workers are associated with thermal comfort in offices • Level of control over temperature and ventilation in offices is crucial for employees’ comfort, health and productivity. • Landlord regarded as responsible for physical building changes, tenants for adjusting behaviour. • Behavioural adaptation measures affected by common reliance on air conditioning and the variability of tenant companies.

This study used Arup Appraise data

Urban green/blue infrastructure • • • • • •

Benefits of green infrastructure

Reduced surface runoff Moderating air temperatures Improving air quality Protecting and enhancing biodiversity Providing recreation space Reducing carbon emissions Artificial wetland Green roof Flood detention basin

Oxford Road: green infrastructure scenarios Business as usual 15% green space High development 4% green space

45 43 41 39 37

Deep green 34% green space

35 33 31 29 27 25 1961-1990 Current situation Business as usual Deep green High development Development scenarios for 2050s high emissions scenario High development = +5ºC Business as usual Deep green = -6ºC

~21% green space will maintain surface temperatures at baseline

Greater Manchester – future land use scenarios Long descent scenario 2050 Upward Spiral scenario 2050

Summary • • • • • • Weather/climate risks to buildings and infrastructure are evolving Today’s developments will be operating in a different climate regime in the future New developments need to be resilient to future climate change Adaptation needs to mix physical and behavioural responses Green and blue infrastructure is a valuable adaptation response Climate change projections should ideally be considered alongside socio-economic projections.

Acknowledgements Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.

The research support and assistance of the EcoCities team in developing the content for this presentation is much appreciated. Particular thanks go to: Gina Cavan Angela Connelly John Handley Simon Guy Aleksandra Kazmierczak

Principal sources of data Carter, J. G. and Lawson, N. (2011). Looking back and projecting forwards: Greater Manchester’s weather and climate. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.

Carter, J. G. (2012). Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis and implications for climate change adaptation. EcoCities project, University of Manchester.

Cavan, G. and Kazmierczak, A. (2011). Urban greening to adapt urban areas to climate change: Oxford Road Corridor case study. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.

Kazmierczak, A., and Kenny, C. (2011). Risk of flooding to infrastructure in Greater Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.

Kazmierczak, A. and Connelly, A. (2012). Adaptation to weather and climate in office buildings in Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.

Adapting the city

Building & Infrastructure Mike Kay

Network Strategic Director, Electricity North West

Building & Infrastructure Mike Kay

Network Strategic Director, Electricity North West

The challenge for the wires • Decarbonization of generation, of space heating, and of transport • Managing more extreme weather – flooding and wind storms • Increase in average temperatures

Electricity North West We serve only the North West of England and we are based here We serve approximately 5 million people at 2.4 million domestic and industrial locations £9bn of Network Assets 58,000km of cable 96 bulk supply substations 363 primary substations 34,000 transforming points

Carbon A doubling of electricity usage by 2050?

Smart grids; smart meters – smart cities Electric Vehicles Innovation – Capacity to Customers (C2C) to reduce the new build capacity needed; make it available quickly and without digging up the streets

The weather Electricity North West is defending its critical infrastructure Significant investment in flood defences

Ambient temperature Any rise in temperature is bad for electricity networks Load growth is a much bigger effect, and ambient temperature rise will be accommodated in our changes overall

http://www.enwl.co.uk

Adapting the city

Water Infrastructure & Climate Change Chris Matthews Head of Sustainability, United Utilities

Presentation Overview • About United Utilities • What climate change means for water and wastewater service provision and why this is a business imperative • Our response – water supply • Our response – wastewater service • Engaging with stakeholders – how we all need to work together

About United Utilities • Operations in the north west of England • 7 million customers • 57,000 hectares of catchment land • Over 40,000 km of distribution mains, supplying 1950Ml/day water • Over 72,000km of sewers, 582 Wastewater Treatment Works

Adaptation and water supply • 2035 estimate is a reduction in available supply of some 10% or around 180 million litres of water every day • • A combination of less yield and greater customer demand Intense rainfall may increase raw water colour increasing treatment costs • Flooding on water treatment facilities, interruption to service

Adaptation and wastewater service provision • • • • • • Increased incidences of flooding of homes Flooding on wastewater treatment facilities, interruption to service Water courses could have a lower dissolved oxygen content leading to tighter discharge consent standards to maintain water quality standards Potential for odour generation in warmer conditions and risk of causing nuisance to customers Impact on sludge as prolonged wet periods may restrict sludge to land recycling route Warmer weather may have a positive effect on biological treatment processes, which operate more effectively at higher temperatures

• • Our response – the process Adaptation integrated into our Strategic Direction Statement, company policies and strategies to develop optimised long-term asset management plans for the next 25 years. The plans provide the foundation for assessing the specific actions required to adapt to climate change risks over the planning horizon and beyond.

Climate change data (UKCIP) and assessment of risk is used in the development of company strategies, whilst climate change is accounted for in design, construction and operational activities.

Our response – water supply • Water Resources Management Plan • Reduce demand for water (leakage control and customer efficiency) • Increase supply of water (small scale new groundwater resource development and greater network integration) • 55 km West-East pipeline to link Lake District and Welsh sources and enable water to be moved to those areas most affected by climate change especially during drought period • £1.6m investment to manage flood risk at key assets and catchment land investment • All in a way that is good value for customers and is sustainable

• • • Our response – wastewater service Increased volumes of storm water exceed sewer capacity and cause customer flooding.

• Upsizing priority sections of sewer together with protecting customers’ property • Improving models of the sewer network • Engaging with local authorities and the EA on development of Surface Water Management Plans • On-going planning to protect wastewater treatment works at risk from flooding • Increasing emphasis on demand management approaches • Sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) analysis Building our way out of the problem on its own will not work and we already have a policy NOT to routinely upsize the sewer network Working with our customers to determine the level of service/protection that they want/can pay for

• Engaging with stakeholders Engagement to understand stakeholder priorities and preferences • Taken into account within our strategic asset planning process.

• Flooding from the sewerage system a symptom of more widespread problems in an entire drainage system which will often require actions from other stakeholders as well as United Utilities. • Support the adoption of a joined-up approach to drainage management based on the principles of integrated drainage as outlined in Making Space for Water (Defra, 2005), Future Water (Defra, 2008), the Pitt Review (Sir Michael Pitt, 2008) and Flood and Water Management Act (2010).

Key messages • • • Sustainable adaptation to climate change will involve partnership working and behavioural change. We expect the proportion of this type of work to increase as conventional solutions become unsustainable.

Climate change risks to our Water Service are well catered for in our existing business plans and statutory documents. We already plan for climate variability in our 25 year business planning horizon.

There are some long-term risks to our Wastewater Service from climate change. Current methods to manage these risks are unsustainable and innovation is needed to manage the issues in the long term.

Adapting the city

Building & Infrastructure David Hytch

Information Systems Director, Transport for Greater Manchester

Transport and Climate Change • • • Transport in GM is responsible for 4m tons of CO2 We recognise the problem Now to do something about it • • • Adapting Mitigating Business Continuity

Transport Adapting Energy • • • • • Green Sourced Managed • Re-useable Design & Build Educate BREEAM Materials

Transport Mitigation

New and existing infrastructure

• Metrolink • 5 million fewer car journeys • Cycling • Walking • Roads • Bus • Freight • Cars • Rail • Travel Planning • Smart Ticketing • Park & Ride

Transport Approach • Change Behaviour • Deliver best in class • Carbon footprint emissions

Transport and Climate Change Bus Hybrid Bus Cross City Bus Oxford Road Corridor LSM busway Route Northern Hub HS2 – not speed but capacity local & regional

Transport and Climate Mitigation Road Predictive Traffic Management Measurement Freight & Bus Incident Management Adaptive signal control Evidence: Eco driving 15% Adaptive cruise control 3-10% Satnav improvements 15% Speed management 20% Adaptive signalling 20%

Transport interventions Bus Rail Hybrid Bus Cross city Bus including Oxford Road Corridor LSM Busway Northern Hub Electrification HS2 – not speed but capacity

Transport Interventions The Informed Traveller Smart ticketing Mobile Apps Trip Planners at home and on the move In journey updates Real time is too late

THANK YOU

David Hytch

[email protected]

0161 244 1023

Adapting the city

Building & Infrastructure Iain Grant

Buildings Management Director, Bruntwood Building Retrofit

C40 Cities

The Key Issues • For property owners; the preservation of asset value and ensuring that buildings are fit for purpose; • For occupiers; ensuring that staff productivity is not impaired and where possible enhanced • How do we measure our success • Adaptation is a here and now issue

The Importance of Time (aka The Commercial Imperative) Includes the differences between • Strategy and tangible implementation • Short term mitigation and long term adaptation • Time horizon over which our investment plans are predicated

Building Retrofit – the key challenges ?

From 37% of UK emissions in 2009 to zero by 2050; principally from the existing building stock Heritage buildings How do we choose which buildings to adapt and what happens to those that we reject ?

Funding

VRF Market

Market Volumes Installed VRF in Use

VRF Market Growth of Heat Recovery systems Cooling only Heat Pump

12% 40%

Heat Recovery

48% 2000 27% 73% 2011

• • •

Why?

Flexibility Efficiency Cost

How do we fund ?

Has to be sustainable Stand alone adaptation doesn’t work financially, build in to current investment plans Inclusive rents may be the solution (Green Deal et al) Ultimately a move away from P & L funded costs to balance sheet investment

The Opportunities GM wide strategy We have a GM wide Governance Structure Technology exists today Large number of organisations keen to become involved, but haven't yet built an effective coalition for change

Adapting the city

Building & Infrastructure John Lorimer

Capital Programme Director, Manchester City Council

Public Sector Building Retrofit Case Study

Thank You

Adapting the city

Building & Infrastructure Dr Tim Whitley

Associate Director, Arup

Sustainable Building Retrofit Adaptation and Mitigation

Climate Change Impacts Lack of resilience High energy bills Summer overheating Customer discomfort

9.0

6 O C 9.67

O C 10.1

O C

Adaptation vs Mitigation and Retrofit Mitigation Reduce energy use Reduce water use Lower carbon footprint Adaptation Increased summer temperatures Increased flood risk More extreme weather events

Challenge

Potential increased cooling to cope with increased summer temperatures vs reducing energy use

Bruntwood– Adaptation and Mitigation

Three packages Two categories

1.

Behavioural 2.

Fabric 3.

Services 1.

Suite related (impact on customers’ electricity bills) 2.

Building related (impact on service charge energy costs)

Cost-benefit Analysis

Key Intervention examples Envelope and environmental system strategy High performance glazing Solar shading through glazing and blinds Insulation to roof and spandrel panels Expose soffits for passive/night time cooling Install high efficiency ventilation and conditioning systems Maximise daylight opportunities

Façade Mitigation and Adaptation BCO Guide Occupants Machines Spare Lighting 20 40 .5

1m 0.5m

.

5 60 1m 80 2m 2m 1m 3m 100 4m Blind in ventilated cavity 2m Clear double glazing + internal blind 3m Continuous glazing 3m 120 4m 140 High performance 66/34 glazing + internal blind 160 180 200 220 Total Cooling W/m 2 (perimeter areas)

Key Intervention examples Control & monitoring systems Enhanced BMS, increased controls, smaller zones Lighting control zones, low energy lighting Extensive sub-metering and real time displays Comprehensive behaviour change strategy Prompt energy conscious behaviour change

Overall Building Carbon savings Remaining Customer Saving Landlord Saving

40-50% Savings

Adapting the city

Building & Infrastructure Martyn Hulme

Deputy Chair of the AGMA Environment Commission & Managing Director of Co-operative Estates

Adapting the city