Transcript The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project

The Canadian Climate
Impacts Scenarios (CCIS)
Project
A collaborative project sponsored by the Climate
Change Action Fund
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Project Aims
To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change
scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada
By:
• providing basic national climate change scenarios
• developing a nationally-consistent framework within
which sector- and region-specific climate change
scenarios can be developed
• developing and maintaining a capacity to support
climate impacts and adaptation research and
assessments http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
• involving the university research community and
scenario users in the further development of climate
change scenarios
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Project conforms to IPCC-TGCIA recommendations:
Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate
Impact and Adaptation Assessment
(Download from: http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk)
Current focus is on climate change scenario construction
using GCM output:
• Warm start experiments
• IS92a, and now SRES
emissions scenarios
• GCMs which have been
involved in model
intercomparison
exercises
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
IPCC-TGCIA Recommendation
“Users should design and apply multiple
scenarios in impacts assessments, where
these scenarios span a range of possible
future climates, rather than designing and
applying a single ‘best guess’ scenario”
http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
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-20
-15 J
-20
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Precipitation
(mm)
Precipitation
(mm/day)
Precipitation (mm)
Mean
Mean temperature
temperature (°C)
(°C)
Mean temperature (°C)
Multiple Scenarios
F
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AA SS
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Month
Month
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J1.5 A
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Month1.010
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0
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J A
J Month
A
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S
Month
Month
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
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What’s available from CCIS...
• Climate change scenarios for Canada and North America
• At original GCM resolution; (0.5° latitude/longitude)
• Mean changes wrt 1961-1990 for the 2020s, 2050s and
2080s; also monthly time series, anomaly time series
• Monthly, seasonal and annual values
• Climate variables, minimum data set: mean, minimum
and maximum temperature, precipitation, a radiation
variable, a humidity variable, wind speed
• Advice on scenario construction, downscaling,
applications, limitations and uncertainties
http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenarios from ...
• Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
(CGCM1, CGCM2)
• Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
(HadCM2, HadCM3)
• Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIROMk2b)
• German Climate Research Centre (ECHAM4)
• Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-R15,
GFDL-R30)
• Japanese Centre for Climate Research Studies
(CCSR/NIES)
• US National Centre for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR-PCM)
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Available Scenarios
IS92a
SRES
• CGCM1, CGCM2
• HadCM2, HadCM3
• ECHAM4
• GFDL-R15
• CSIROMk2b
• CCSR/NIES
• NCAR-PCM
Total 26, + 4 means
• CGCM2
• HadCM3
• CSIROMk2b
• ECHAM4
• CCSR/NIES
• GFDL-R30
• NCAR-PCM
Total 29, + 3 means
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
What do you get?
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
How do you use this information?
Scenario for 2020s
5
4
Scenario for 2020s
3
2
1
0
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F
M
A
M
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J
Month
A
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
S 0 O
-5
-10
-15
-20
Precipitation change (%)
Mean temperature change
(°C)
6
N
J
D
F
M
A
M
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J
A
S
O
N
Month
Simplest method: apply monthly or seasonal scenario changes from
appropriate grid box to observed data (either daily, monthly or seasonal).
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
D
Results …
• A time series which has the same statistical characteristics
as the observed data, but with the mean values perturbed
by the scenario amount
• You can produce synthetic
weather data using a
stochastic weather
generator - statistical
characteristics will be similar
to observed, but day-to-day
values will be different
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenario Application
Present and Future
Precipitation in British
Columbia
mm
Sicamous
Kamloops A
Salmon Arm
Douglas Lake
Kelowna A
Princeton A
Penticton A
Osoyoos
PRISM: 1961-90 Normals
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
250
Sicamous
Kamloops A
Salmon Arm
51.5
Douglas Lake
Kelowna
A
51
Sicamous
Kamloops A
Princeton A
Salmon Arm
Penticton
50.5 A
51.5
Douglas Lake
Osoyoos
50
Kelowna A
51
Sicamous
2020s
49.5 Princeton A
Penticton A
Kamloops A
Salmon Arm
50.5
Douglas Lake
Osoyoos
49
50
-120.5
-120
2050s
-119.5
Kelowna A
-119
-118.5
49.5 Princeton A
Penticton A
2080s
Osoyoos
49
[Supplied by Bill Taylor, Environment Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region]
-120.5
-120
-119.5
-119
-118.5
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Bioclimate Profiles
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenario Tools
• Scatter plots to assist with scenario
selection
• Access to downscaling tools
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Cooler, wetter
Cooler, drier
Scatter Plots
Warmer, wetter
Warmer, drier
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Winter 2050s
50
50
40
40
Precipitation change (%)
Precipitation change (%)
Winter 2020s
30
20
10
0
-10
30
20
10
0
-10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mean tem perature change (°C)
Winter 2080s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mean tem perature change (°C)
Precipitation change (%)
50
Scatter Plots for winter
40
30
over land area only in Quebec
20
10
All SRES & IS92a
0
-10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mean tem perature change (°C)
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Sum m er 2050s
50
50
40
40
Precipitation change (%)
Precipitation change (%)
Sum m er 2020s
30
20
10
0
-10
30
20
10
0
-10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mean tem perature change (°C)
Sum m er 2080s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mean tem perature change (°C)
Precipitation change (%)
50
Scatter Plots for summer
40
30
over land area only in Quebec
20
10
All SRES & IS92a
0
-10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mean tem perature change (°C)
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
LARS-WG: stochastic
weather generator
Access to SDSM and
predictor variables for North
America (soon global)
Downscaling Tools
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
What’s next for the
CCIS Project?
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
In Progress ...
• Major revisions to web site content and
development of additional tools (ex. custom region)
• Major updates to bioclimate profiles
• Predictor datasets for use with SDSM
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
What’s planned ...
• Interpretation of scenarios
– descriptive indices, such as degree days, a
drought index …
• Scenarios of changes in climate
variability and extremes; significance of
scenario changes
• Further work on downscaling (statistical)
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Scenario
Significance
CGCM1 GAX:
Winter precipitation
change (%)
Climate Change versus Climate Variability
[Source: Nigel Arnell, in Hulme et al. (1999), Nature 397]
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
Significance of the Effect of Climate Change: Runoff
[Source: Nigel Arnell, in Hulme et al. (1999), Nature 397]
The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the
Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related
information to the VIA community in Canada
GCMs and Extreme
Events
‘Hot’ summer