Transcript 1st December world AIDS Day (WAD) CD4 testing camps

The economic impact of demographic trends and
population growth: A look at Thabo Mofutsanyane
District-Free State Province
Author: Mpfuleni Khoza
Statistics South Africa, Free State Province
Introduction
Classical population theories and more recent studies are at logger heads about the
relationship between population growth and economic development (First view,
Malthus; Early 1960s, Marxian; late 1960s Neo-Malthusians; 1980-1990s, Neutralism;
Coale and Hoover 1958; Boserup, 1981, Hirschman 1958, Kuznets 1967 and Simon
1981). For example The ‘population optimists’ or ‘boomsters’ stress the importance of
population growth in advancing productivity, promoting technological innovation and
capturing economies of scale. On the other hand recent economic research shows
that economic growth or “demographic dividend” is only realized when appropriate
investments in education, employment, and health services are made. (Dr. J Baudouy
2006).
Figure 3: Enrollment by gender (%)
52.0
51.5
51.0
50.5
50.0
49.5
49.0
The aim of the study is to investigate change in demographic trends with a focus on
the following variables; population growth, age/sex structure and dependency ratio.
Further to that a conclusion will be drawn on how the demographic dynamics in Thabo
Mofutsanyane may impact on future economic development. This will be achieved by
examining the population pyramid and compare recent demographic trends from
Census 2001 data to Census 2011 data.
Male
48.5
Female
48.0
47.5
47.0
46.5
Enrolled in School
Enrolled in School
2001
2011
Figure 3 Source: Statistics South Africa: Census 2011
Source: Statistics South Africa: Census 2001 and 2011
Population Structure
Enrolment
hasMofutsanyane
hovered around
95 percent
from 2001
2011
Generally the Net
population
size Ratio,
of Thabo
District
has decrease
from to
782
302 inin Mangaung
2001 to 736
Metropolitan
Municipality
(Figure 2).
This of
study
reveals
that Mangaung
238 in 2011 The
Study reveals
that the population
structure
Thabo
Mofutsanyane
changed Metropolitan
between 2001
net enrolment
rate
of 95.2 percent
2001 and
94.8 percent
2011
and 2011. TheMunicipality
population recorded
pyramids areveal
that Thabo
Mofutsanyane
is ainyouthful
population
with in
0-14
age
2). Figure
shows
outatof5.5%
95.2 from
percent
of pupils
enrolled
in 2001,
50.2
group standing(Fig
at 31.9%,
and365+
agethat
group
Census
2011.who
Thewere
structure
in 2001
shows
that
weregroup
boys 0-4
and is
49.8
were
Thisgroup
indicates
morethe
boys
were enrolled
the populationpercent
of the age
lesspercent
than that
ofgirls.
the age
5-9.that
In 2011
structure
shows a
schools
girls in 2001.
In age
2011group
out of0-4
94.8
percent that
of pupils
enrolled,
50.7 percent
much broaderinbase
with than
the population
of the
exceeding
of other
age groups..
Census
werethe
boys
percent
were girls.from
The 4.9%
study in
shows
the proportion
of apex
girls who
results show that
0-4and
age49.3
group
has increased
2001that
to 5.7.
The narrow
of the
were enrolled
in 2001
declined in 2011.
population pyramids
indicates
that has
life expectancy
is low for both males and females, although females
above 84+ have better survival rates than males.
Discussions
Thestructure
results from
study that
indicate
thatMofutsanyane
out of every 100
of primary
age
The population
also this
indicates
Thabo
haschildren
more females
thanschool
males,
this
94-95 are
in school.
is comparable to international accepted standards.
becomes moregroup
pronounced
for enrolled
age groups
35 and This
above.
(see Langsten, 2013). However NER does not report on the quality of education and does
not indicate grade repetition.
Dependency Ratios
NOW
GENDERactive
DIFFERENTIALS
ALSO
CONCLUDE
THEM
The data shows
thatDISCUSS
the districtTHE
economically
age populationAND
15-64
was 62.6%
in 2011ON
of the
total,
BELOW
as compared to
61.4% in 2001. The numbers also show that the ‘dependency ratio’ of children (0-14) and
the elderly (65+) to those in the economic active age has shrunk from 63% in 2001 to 59.6% in 2011.
Figure 1 Source: Demarcation Board: 2012
Discussion and Conclusion
Methods
South Africa has conducted three Censuses after the 1994 democratic elections
(1996, 2001 and 2011). During the process, population and household attributes
were enumerated and a variety of indicators generated. Censuses are principal
means of collecting basic population and housing statistics required for social and
economic development, policy interventions, their implementation and evaluation.
Census 2011 data will be employed to observe demographic changes in Thabo
Mofutsanyane District. The data was analyzed using SUPERCROSS software and
Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.
Results
The population of Thabo Mofutsanyane is experiencing a negative growth (decline from 782 302 in 2001 to
736 238 in 2011). A negative population growth can be beneficial in settings of limited resources but may
have an impact on local economic development and dependency ratios in future.Census 2011 data shows
that the district’s youth bulge is pronounced at the 15-34 age groups. Without opportunities for the youthful
population in education and in the labour market, the demographic dividends will not be realised.
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
As indicated inThe
thestudy
results,
censusthat
2001
records
fewera births
in 2001 compared
to 2011 2001
were and
the 0-4
age
indicates
there
has been
0.4% enrolment
decline between
2011.
group exceedsThis
all other
ageindication
groups. The
the 0-4quo
age group
populationmangaung
in 2001 maybe
due to the
is an
thatdecline
if theinstatus
is maintained,
metropolitan
impact of HIV/AIDS
on thewill
population
of Thabo
Mofutsanyane
and the
increasea infullchild
mortality
municipality
not be able
to ensure
that all boys
andresulting
girls complete
course
of
together with an
increase
in contraceptive
use, abstinence
and in fecundity
due Metropolitan
to HIV/AIDS.Municipality
This calls for
primary
education
by 2015. Progress
will be needed
if Mangaung
more studies to
conducted
orderofto100%
establish
the cause of the anomaly in the population structure.
is be
to achieve
theintarget
by 2015.
High dependency ratios in Thabo Mofutsanyane may cause a strain on the small fraction of those who are
employed (31.3% of adults in the economically active age groups are employed in Thabo Mofutsanyane) .
The dependency ratios also put a strain on government provided welfare services (e.g. subsidised health,
social security, housing and education). Declining dependency ratio and increases in economic active age
(2008)
. Country
report:potential
South Africa
population are Education
necessaryfor
butallnot
sufficient
to realise
of the “demographic dividend”. A “window of
opportunity” needs good policies and institutions. It is thus imperative for local government authorities to
http://www.education.gov.za/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=rJwNOU9f82I%3d&tabid=452&mid=1034
place an emphasis on education and creating employment opportunities for younger people and those in
Kiringai,J.
their economically
active and
age Levin,
groups.J (2008) Achieving the MDGs in Kenya with some aid and reallocation of
public expenditures.Obrero : Obrero University.
Literature cited
Langsten R (2013) Measuring progress toward universal primary education: An examination of
indicators. Social Research Center: American University in Cairo.
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(2006).(2013)
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and Sustainable
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Tshepang Chueu for data analysis
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StatisticsMrs
South
Africa.Kgabanyane
(2012). Census
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(2011) Statistical
release,
Mid-Year
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Mr Karl Heinz
Joubert
for mapping
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Mr Pub.
Thabo
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Mrs Ntebogeng Madlopha for data analysis
Acknowledgments
Figure 2 Source: Statistics South Africa: Census 2001
Presented at AIDS 2010 in Vienna - Austria
Presented at AIDS 2010 in Vienna - Austria