Transcript IPM Business Development Plan

Floating Production Systems
Presentation at
Tulane Energy Week 2010
Jim McCaul – IMA
Outline of Presentation

Overview of FPS Technology

Current FPS Situation

FPS Projects Being Planned

Forecast of FPS Orders
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Four Basic FPS Solutions

FPSO

Production Semi

Tension Leg Platform

Production Spar
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FPSO
Weathervaning
Spread Moored
Serpentina FPSO
Pazflor FPSO
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FPSO
PRO
 Has field storage and can be
used in remote locations.
Leasing transfers some risk
from field operator to contractor.
Can operate on shallow or
ultra-deepwater fields.
Assumed residual value a
competitive tool in leasing bids.
Less weight sensitive than
other types of FPSs.
Deck area allows flexibility in
process plant layout.
CON
Subsea tiebacks create higher
well maintenance costs.
Surplus/aging tankers can be
used for conversion.
Turret/swivel machinery
expensive, high maintenance.
Can be modified/redeployed
following field depletion.
Redeploying an FPSO not as
easy as it may appear.
Quick disconnect turrets
enable emergency relocation.
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Production Semi
PRO
Relatively wide deck space provides good
layout footprint for process plant.
Can support large number of risers.
Has relatively little surface motion.
Water depth not a limitation.
CON
No storage – requires either an FSO or
pipeline offtake.
Hull weight carrying capacity imposes
limitations on deckload.
P-51 Production Semi
Deck space more limited than large FPSO.
Dry tree designs developed, but to date wet
trees utilized with production semis.
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Tension Leg Platform
PRO
ETLP
Moses TLP
Surface motion limited by tendon
tension, providing stable platform
for dry trees.
CON
Tendon weight grows with water
depth and increasingly restricts
deck payload capacity.
Deepest TLP water depth to date
has been Magnolia, in 1430 meters
water.
TLPs are inherently unstable and
will capsize if tendons fail.
Sea Star TLP
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Production Spar
PRO
Can accommodate dry trees.
Water depth does not seem to be a
limitation – Perdido Host spar is in
water depth of 2400 meters.
Spars can provide storage but to date
no spar has been used in this capacity.
Inherently stable, will remain upright
if moorings fail.
CON
Kikeh Spar
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Need to utilize heavy lift or floatover
for hull/topsides mating – an expensive
proposition.
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Optimum Application Range
Source: FloaTEC, Review of Deepwater Floating Structures and Dry Tree Semi Developments, November 2006
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FPS Units in Operation
(as of July 2010)
22 tension leg platforms
 43 production semis
 152 FPSOs
 18 production spars
 8 production barges
 5 FSRUs
 95 FSOs

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Where FPSs are Operating
(as of July 2010)
22
13
7
2
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
2
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
7 5
8
4
17
15
14
43
1
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
1
19
9
1
35
P MI O R U U O
TL SE PS PA FP SR FS
F
F S
1 1
4
28
1
1 1
1 2
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
5
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
17
2
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
16
1
15
3 5
3
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
P MI O R E U O
TLSE PS PA RG SR FS
F S A F
B
Not shown in the bar charts are 6 FPSOs, 2 production semis and 2 FSOs that are off-field
and available for reuse. Also not included is an FPSO in China that is off-field for repair.
2 FPSOs and an FPU in the GOM are employed in emergency use.
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FPSs Being Built/Converted
(as of July 2010)
39 FPSOs (16 new, 23 conversions)
 4 production semis (new)
 1 TLP (new)
 1 FSRU (conversion)
 4 FLNGs (new)
 3 MOPUs (2 new, 1 conversion)
 2 FSOs (1 new, 1 conversion)

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Where FPSs Are Being Built
(as of July 2010)
K anfa
H yundai
Lamprell
FlexFLNG Producer 1 (top)
Usan FPSO (n)
Goliat FPSO (n)
Deep Producer 1 FPSO (top)
Liv orno FSRU (top)
Adyard
Yme MOPU (n)
D. Panuke MOPU (n)
Samsung
Skarv FPSO (n)
FlexLNG Producer 1 (n)
FlexLNG Producer 2 (n)
FlexLNG Producer 3 (n)
FlexLNG Producer 4 (n)
Waimea OSX-1 FPSO (n)
D ubai D D
Deep Producer 1 FPSO (c-hull)
Liv orno FSRU (c)
Aquila FPSO (c)
D aewoo
Pazflor FPSO (n)
Toyo Eng.
JR ay McD ermott
Peregrino FPSO (top)
K eppel
Jubarte P57 FPSO (c-hull)
Peregrino FPSO (c)
Cossack FPSO (c)
Technip/K eppel Fels B razil
Aseng FPSO (c)
Marlim Sul P56 Semi (top)
P. Das Baleais P58 FPSO (c)
Chim Sao FPSO (c)
B rasfels
C osco N antong
Chev iot Semi (n)
C OOEC
Tupi Pilot (top)
MMH E
Gumusut semi (n)
Papa Terra P61 TLP
Jubarte P57 FPSO (top)
Marlim Sul P56 Semi (n-hull)
Technip
Atlantico Sul
Roncador P55 FPSO
(hull assembly)
Serial Pre-salt FPSOs (n-hulls)
Roncador P55 FPSO (top)
Papa Terra P63 FPSO (top)
Tupi Pilot (c-hull)
Guara FPSO (c)
Papa Terra P63 FPSO (c-hull)
Gumusut semi (top)
Yulian
Jurong
Quip
STX D alian
Soroosh FSU (n)
C osco D alian
Roncador P55 FPSO (hull blocks)
R io Grande Sul
H antong
Sev an #4 FPSO (n-hull)
Sev an #5 FPSO (n-hull)
Gulf Island Fab.
Chev iot Semi (top)
PSVM FPSO (top)
PetroProd 1 FPSO (c)
PSVM FPSO (c)
Roncador P62 FPSO (c)
Sembawang
Ebok FPSO (c)
Pipa II FPSO (c)
Kitan FPSO (c)
Carioca EWT (c)
Notes: (1) n=new, c=conversion, top=topsides plant (2) Not shown are builders or converters
where the facility has not been selected or hulls or topsides have essentially been completed.
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FPS Construction Has Shifted to Asia
(number of facilities involved in FPS construction/conversion)
Europe
Asia
No. America
Braz il
Africa
11
1 1 4
1
4
1 3 4 4
2
6 6 6
6 8 8 8 9 7
5
5 8
7
8
11 9 9 10 10 11 9
7 6
3
1
4
5
2
2 2 1 2
1 3
2 2
1 1 7 2
3 3 3
1 2
4
2
8
4
7
4
7 5
4
6
14
13
7 12
12
13 12 11 13
7 8 6 6
4 5 5 4 6 5
Middle East
3 3
4 3
3 3
2 3 4
1
1 1 4 3
2 2 4
1 4 4
5 3 3 3 3
4
3
5 5
6
2 4 4 4 5 3 3
6
6
22
2 2
21
19
3 3 5 5
20
4
1 1
16
5 7
15
3
15 15
14
17
14
16 16
8 10 11
16 16
9 10 11 11 9 8 7
7
6
5 4 3 5
4 3 2
1 1
7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0
'9 t '9 r '9 l '9 v '9 r '9 '9 c '9 r '0 '0 '0 l '0 v '0 r '0 '0 '0 '0 t '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 . '0 v '0 r '1 l '1
g e
g b n c r l v r l v r l v r l v r l c r l
p b u
n c
u
u
Ju O Ma J No Ma Au D Ap Se Fe J No Ap Au Fe Ju O Ma Ju No Ap Ju No Ma Ju No Ma Ju No Ma Ju De Ma Ju No Ma J
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Where FPSs Will Be Installed
(as of July 2010)
1
4
1
P MI O R U O
TL SE PS PA OP FS
F S M
1
P MI O U O
TL SE PS OP FS
F M
1
1
P MI O R U O
TL SE PS PA SR FS
F S F
1
P MI O U U O
TLSE PS SR OP FS
F F M
20
5
1 3
P MI O E U O
TL SE PS RG OP FS
F A M
B
1 1
P MI O R U O
TL SE PS PA OP FS
F S M
1 2
2
P MI O O
TL SE PS FS
F
P MI O R U O
TL SE PS PA SR FS Not shown are 4 FPSOs and 4 FLNGs being built on speculation without a field contract.
F S F
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Trend in FPS Order Backlog
6765
60
60
57
56
4646
43
3736 35
32 3330
31
41
37373839 383737
34343534
49
49
4140 39
37
}
8 Petrobras
FPSO hulls
27
2321 2122
17
6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0
'9 '9 '9 t '9 '9 l '9 '9 '9 '9 c '9 r '0 '0 '0 l '0 '0 r '0 '0 '0 '0 t '0 '0 l '0 '0 r '0 l '0 '0 '0 l '0 '0 '0 l '0 '0 '0 l '0 c '0 '0 l '0 '0 '1 l '1
r u v r u
g b n c r u v
p
p b u v
b n c r u v r g
u v r u v r u v r u
Se Fe Ju O Ma J No Ma Au De Ap Se Fe J No Ap Au Fe Ju O Ma J No Ap J No Ma J No Ma J No Ma J De Ma J No Ma J
International Maritime Associates
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FPS Projects Planned/Under Study
(as of July 2010)
Shown in this chart is the num ber of proj ects by region where floating
production or storage is under consideration as a developm ent solution.
Several proj ects involve m ultiple production units. One proj ect in
Brazil potentially involves 6 or m ore units. Data reflect the situation
as of 19 July 2010.
11
Ultra-De e pwate r >1500m
19
De e pwate r 1000-1500m
3
2
<1000m wate r de pth
13
14
4
6
1
21
13
6
12
17
12
10
5
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a
Br
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G
f
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ex
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co
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International Maritime Associates
3
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as
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/
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ia
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Eu
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r
r
.
A
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N
it
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1
1
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Ca
3
1
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Forecast of FPSO Orders
Over the Next Five Years
Scenario 3
$90-$100 oil
150 FPSOs
Scenario 2
~$80 oil
120 FPSOs
Scenario 1
$50-$70 oil
95 FPSOs
Actual
Orders
64 FPSOs
9
Redeployments
Available
Spec Units
New Orders
25
8
20
8
15
8
117
92
72
55
Past Five
Years
International Maritime Associates
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Forecast of Production Semi Orders
Over the Next Five Years
Actual
Orders
9 Semis
1
Scenario 1
$50-70 oil
10 Semis
Redeployments
Available
Spec Unit
1
1
Scenario 2
~$80 oil
12 Semis
2
Past Five
Years
International Maritime Associates
3
1
1
New Orders
8
Scenario 3
$90-100 oil
14 Semis
9
8
10
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Forecast of TLP Orders
Over the Next Five Years
Scenario 3
$90-100 oil
5 TLPs
Scenario 2
~$80 oil
4 TLPs
Scenario 1
$50-70 oil
3 TLPs
Actual
Orders
2 TLPs
3
2
Production
TLPs
2
1
1
Wellhead
TLPs
Past Five
Years
International Maritime Associates
2
2
1
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Forecast of Production Spar Orders
Over the Next Five Years
Scenario 3
$90-100 oil
5 Spars
Scenario 2
~$80 oil
4 Spars
Scenario 1
$50-70 oil
3 Spars
Actual
Orders
2 Spars
1
Light
Deckload
Heavy/Medium
Deckload
3
2
1
2
2
2
1
Past Five
Years
International Maritime Associates
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Forecast of FSO Orders
Over the Next Five Years
Actual
Orders
26 FSOs
Scenario 1
$50-70 oil
25 FSOs
Scenario 2
~$80 oil
30 FSOs
Scenario 3
$90-100 oil
35 FSOs
29
Conversions
22
25
21
Purpose
Built Units
4
Past Five
Years
International Maritime Associates
5
4
6
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Summary Forecast of FPS Orders
Over the Next Five Years
Most Likely
Scenario
Scenario 1
$50-70 Oil
Type FPSO
No. Units
Scenario 2
~$80 Oil
Total
Capex
No. Units
(bil of $)
Scenario 3
$90-100 Oil
Total
Capex
No. Units
(bil of $)
Total
Capex
(bil of $)
Production Floaters
FPSOs
95
$56.6
120
$67.1
150
$81.8
Semis
10
$5.6
12
$6.1
14
$6.7
TLPs
3
$2.2
4
$3.2
5
$3.8
Spars
3
$1.5
4
$1.8
5
$2.1
111
$65.9
140
$78.2
174
$94.4
25
$2.6
30
$3.2
35
$3.7
All production floaters
Storage Floaters
FSOs
Total Market
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136
$68.5
170
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$81.4
209
$98.1
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International Maritime Associates, Inc.
1250 24th Street, NW — Suite 350
Washington, DC 20037 USA
Tel: 202-333-8501 (Washington)
Tel: 832-203-5622 (Houston)
Fax: 202-333-8504
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.imastudies.com