Transcript Document
Inspiring change for people and the environment Green Deal for Real: Key Considerations for projects Stuart Hay Senior Consultant About Changeworks We work with public and third sector organisations, schools, communities and businesses to… Inspire and enable Share our action to reduce knowledge and CO2, waste and learn from others to fuel poverty maximise our impact Build confidence Deliver the best and skills to make possible service sustainable choices creatively and professionally …and we focus our expertise on energy, waste and the sustainable use of resources Consultancy services • Low-energy retrofit projects – Energy efficiency – Renewables • Technical support – Hard-to-treat housing • Energy & financial analysis – EPCs, SAP, NHER – SHQS / EES compliance – Stock modelling • Feasibility studies • Tenant guidance The Green Deal For Real • Context • The Carbon Heart Assessment Tool • Examples exploring issues around the Green Deal in terms of assessing projects • Some final thoughts on where we are Project Drivers Statutory target Maintain property CO2 Why Retrofit Finance Comfort Fuel bills The Green Deal A financial mechanism made possible by the magic of energy efficiency 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 + 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 ≥ 20 Its Simple: What could possibly go wrong? Capital costs • Market conditions / competition / uptake / innovation • Economies of scale (social housing) • Costs of finance (market) • Inflation • Fees and project management • Hidden additional costs • Re-decoration • Decanting / voids • Age and value of existing assets • Contingencies Actual costs • Golden Rule subsidy ECO Carbon Reduction • Social / fuel poverty subsidy ECO Affordable Warmth Carbon Saving Communities • Carbon price / factor for project (base price) 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 £ 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝐶𝑂2 = 𝑇𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑑 Savings • Software Predictions (SAP) • Real world – Actual user behaviour vs. software Rebound effect Comfort level Occupancy pattern – Actual performance of measure vs. software Installation Maintenance Operation • Fuel price increases • Inflation Project assessment tools – Carbon HEART • Home Energy Analysis Retrofit Tool (HEART) • Calculates: – Capital costs – Energy savings – Carbon savings – CO2 per £ spent – SAP and NHER ratings – SHQS compliance – Fuel poverty indicators – Green Deal/ECO finance – Analysis of retrofit scenarios – Investment recommendations Carbon HEART • Full, detailed analysis of investment options – For all stock – For each archetype – For each sub-archetype • Also analyses impact of numerous variables not recognised by other energy software – – – – Householder heating patterns Repayment interest rates Inflation (fuel bill rises) Rebound effect Carbon HEART • Up-to-date databases – Retrofit costs – CO2 factors – Fuel costs • Accurate, ‘real-life’ outputs – Uses actual property data (drawings, specifications etc.) – Uses actual retrofit costs (agreed in advance) – Can use any energy data (RdSAP, SAP, NHER etc.) – Does not rely on generic averages Carbon HEART • Well suited to complex property types – Blocks – Terraces – Tenements • – – – – Strategic investment tool for social landlords Baseline performance Impact of different retrofit scenarios Indentifies optimal scenario Best Value For Money Issue 1: Identifying Cost Effective Solutions • 3-storey No Fines block – Double glazing – Non-condensing gas combi boiler – Concrete walls, no insulation • Modelled 3 improvement scenarios 1. External wall insulation 2. As above, plus • Loft top-up • Condensing boilers • Lighting • Improved double glazing 3. As above, plus • Floor insulation • PV Carbon HEART –Targets No Eco support • • All 3 retrofit scenarios will meet 2020 CO2 target Meeting 2050 target will be much more challenging • • Limited additional savings achieved for higher-cost retrofit scenarios Scenario 2 & 3 waste resources Carbon HEART – Scenarios Limited additional benefit from investment Carbon HEART – Scenarios FITs level? Level of ECO available? Golden Rule Able? Carbon HEART – Example Issue 2: Hard to Treat Measures • Historic Scotland Technical Paper 16 • Financial modelling of traditional property types – Detached cottage – Tenement flat • Identified qualifying measures • Tested variables to assess impact on eligibility Hard to Treat Properties • Detached cottage – – – – – • 600mm sandstone walls Solid & timber floors Single glazing No loft insulation Coal & electric heating Tenement flat – – – – Mid-floor 600mm sandstone walls Single glazing (extensive) ‘G’ rated gas boiler Variables • Energy rating software • Interest rates • Inflation (fuel costs) • Rebound effect • Heating patterns / behaviour • Installation costs – (Used actual £ data provided by Historic Scotland) Improvement measures • Walls (internal only) – Blown beads – Slimline ‘blanket’ – Thicker (100mm) fibre board • Windows – – – – • Double glazing x 2 Secondary glazing x 2 Shutters Draughtproofing Floors – Timber floor hemp board – Solid floor board Improvement measures • Roofs – Sheep wool • Doors – New insulated front door – Insulate existing door • Heating – – – – – • Gas boiler & full controls Electric storage heaters Biomass boiler HWC & pipe insulation HWC thermostat (Also packaged measures) Results – detached house Wall insulation Eligible? (Blown beads) Loft insulation Solid floor Eligible? insulation HWC Eligible AW only insulation Secondary glazing Door upgrade Timber floor insulation Wall insulation (blanket) New door Biomass Eligible AW only boiler Double glazing Draught proofing Not recognised by RdSAP Results – tenement flat Eligible? Wall insulation (blown beads) Draught proofing Secondary glazing Gas boiler Slim double glazing Wall insulation (blanket) Wall insulation (fibre board) Shutters HWC insulation HWC thermostat Door Door Electric heating Secondary glazing Double glazing Not recognised by RdSAP Issue 3: Software Limitations • Theoretical average • High assumed heating use + poor assumed U-values = over-estimated savings • Only as good as the assessor collecting and entering the data • Time and cost penalty for going beyond default values In use factors • Performance factor catered for – – – – ‘In-use’ factors Will reduce available finance Will exclude some measures Will be updated over time & account for in situ results “The in-use factor is not intended to protect against occupants changing their behaviour, for example, comfort taking to achieve a warmer home. We recognise that such comfort taking can be a major reason for the apparent underperformance.” DECC Issue 4: Funding for measures • Green Deal Loan (7.5% over 20 years) • Savings (1% interest) or Mortgage (4.25% 20 years) (Public Sector 2.86%) • Energy Company Obligation ECO – – – – Rate of deployment and timing Development of the carbon market / brokerage Energy company priorities (PR) Ofgem and government tinkering Green Deal Loan Analysis Changes to loan details Effect on ECO The Market Place for ECO • Ideal ECO scenario – Avoid expensive hard to treat properties – Find tenants that qualify for affordable warmth stream – Similar properties / economies of scale (social housing) – Basic measures in poor (low SIMD) areas • Maximise £-per-tonne-CO2 – Off gas properties (rural?) – Terraces with external wall insulation £ CO2 Other Considerations • Timing and cost of technology – penalties for early adopters (e.g. solar PV) • Future proofing vs. shortterm targets • Full lifecycle costing / retrofit vs. replacement • Issues beyond energy efficiency e.g. housing management or property conservation • Wider project benefits e.g. health, energy security economic spin offs How the Green Deal is going to work is still a puzzle • Lots of variables • Lots of uncertainties – Technical – Human – Financial Fingers crossed! Inspiring change for people and the environment Thank you for listening [email protected]