Transcript Current Surveys of Manufacturing and Services

Current Surveys of
Manufacturing and Services
An Overview of the Manufacturing
and Services Programs
Ron Farrar
Service Sector Statistics Division
18 June 2011
0:00
Overview of Manufacturing and
Services Topic Areas









Importance of Manufacturing and Services Estimates
Annual Surveys
Quarterly/Monthly Surveys
Survey Processing
Benchmarking
Data Dissemination
Major Data Users
Story ideas
Wrap Up – strengths and weaknesses
2
1:34
Importance of Manufacturing and
Service industry estimates
 Provide the most comprehensive and timely data
on Manufacturing and Services activity in the US
 Significant inputs into estimates of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP)
 Estimates influence financial markets and affect
business decisions
 Provide indications of current economic trends
3
2:08
Finance Numbers Reveal the Recession
Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments
Activities (NAICS 523)1 -Estimated Revenue for Employer Firms 2005-2009
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
Operating Revenue
Billions of Dollars
$100
$0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Estimates are based on data from the 2009 Service Annual Survey
Estimates represent approximately 14% of the Finance and Insurance Sector
1
Excludes Securities and commodity contracts intermediation and brokerage (NAICS 5231), Portfolio management (NAICS 52392)
4
2:41
“Nearly 50 cents of every dollar spent on
health care in this country is spent by
federal, state or local government.”
Rep. Paul Ryan
“The Path to Prosperity”
5
5:06
Demo data
6:20
Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
 Annual since 1949 covering manufacturing
sector (NAICS 31-33)
 Published in years not covered by Economic
Census
 Sample of 50,000 manufacturing establishments
 Supplemented by 200,000 administrative payroll
records
7
8:22
Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
 Uses




Gross Domestic Product estimates
Index of Industrial Production
Producer Price Index weighting
To benchmark other manufacturing surveys
 M3
 MECS
 Current Industrial Reports (CIRs)
 General purpose business indicator
8
9:19
Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)




Mandatory survey, establishment based
High response rate
Extensive mail and telephone follow-up
Reviewed by staff of approximately 75
professional statisticians
 Publication – Thanksgiving of the following year
 i.e. 2010 ASM published Thanksgiving 2011
9
10:08
Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
 Data available
 Industries at the six-digit NAICS level (1998-present)
 Industries at SIC level (1949-1996)
 Approximately 70 data items covering





Shipments
Costs
Employment
Inventories
Capital Expenditures
 Approximately 1500 product classes
10
10:38
Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
 Data Available (continued)
 State industry data (4-digit NAICS) for major items
where significant (> 950) employment exists
 Data available on American Fact Finder (AFF);
located on www.census.gov under “Annual Economic
Surveys”
11
11:26
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
(M3)
 Conducted monthly since 1957
 NAICS Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing)
 Based upon data from manufacturing establishments
with $500 million or more in annual shipments
 Voluntary survey
12
12:08
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
(M3)

Data Items Collected
 Shipments
 New Orders (net of cancellations)
 Unfilled Orders
 End-of-Month Inventories
 Materials and Supplies
 Work-in-process
 Finished Goods Inventories

Advance Report
 Highly Sensitive Indicator
 Published about 18 working days following the reference month

Full Report
 Includes durable and non-durable manufacturing estimates
 Published about 23 working days following the reference month
13
12:40
Service Annual Survey (SAS)
 NAICS Sectors:











22, Utilities
48/49, Transportation & Warehousing
51, Information
52, Finance & Insurance
53, Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
54, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
56, Administrative & Support and Waste Management &
Remediation Services
61, Educational Services
62, Health Care and Social Assistance
71, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
81, Other Services (except Public Administration)
14
13:47
Service Annual Survey (SAS)




Sample of 70,000 companies
Mandatory survey with high response
Estimates benchmarked to the Economic Census
Data items collected
 Revenue
 E-commerce Revenue
 Expenses
 Data typically released in December of the year following
the reference period, i.e. December 2010 for 2009
survey data
15
15:15
Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)
 Conducted Quarterly since 2004
 First new Census Bureau indicator in over
30 years.
 NAICS Sectors: Coverage equal to SAS
 Sample of 17,000 companies
 Sub-sample of SAS
 Voluntary Survey
16
16:22
Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)
 Data Items Collected
 Revenue
 Class of Customer (Sectors 51, 54, & 56)
 Business
 Household
 Government
 Total discharges and number of in-patient
days (hospitals)
17
17:08
Survey Processing
 Mailout (includes faxed questionnaires)
 Data Collection
 Completed questionnaires are mailed or faxed back
by respondents.
 Internet reporting for M3, QSS, ASM and SAS.
 Use of online reporting has grown steadily in recent years.
 Fax reminders and telephone follow-up for delinquent
respondents and edit failures.
18
17:37
Survey Processing
 Tabulation
 Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent
with previous reporting or are growing or
declining faster than similar cases.
 Put all responses on a calendar basis.
 Impute for non-response based on response
data of similar cases.
 same approximate sales size
 same kind of business
19
17:44
Benchmarking
 Once a year we benchmark the QSS estimates
to the SAS estimates and the M3 to the ASM.
 The sampling error of the estimates is lower in
the annual surveys.
 Annual samples are larger than the quarterly
samples.
 Annual samples are mandatory and have better
response.
 Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and
annual estimates to the Economic Census.
20
20:28
Data Dissemination
 Press Release
 Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)
 Quarterly Services Survey
 Service Annual Survey
 Electronic




American Fact Finder for ASM
Census Bureau website: www.census.gov tables in Excel format
White House Briefing Room
CIDR for indicator data releases
21
20:32
Data demo
22
22:06
23
26:46
24
25
26:46
Major Data Users
 Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy
makers, investors, large companies, consultants,
etc.
 Users








Federal Reserve Board – economic trends
Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP
Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis
Large service Firms – economic conditions and market analysis
Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets
Consultants
Market Research Firms
Academia
26
26:56
Story Ideas – Manufacturing & Services
 Example Headlines
 Newspaper Publishers down 26.4% since 2005
 Motion Picture Industry down 11.1% in first quarter 2011
 Largest single quarter drop since 2006
 The 11.1% trend reflects seasonal adjustment
 Dentists up 9.1% in first quarter 2011
 This follows roughly two years of declines
 Total number of production workers in manufacturing down
4.5% since 1997
 Aircraft industry runs opposite to this trend; up 13.3%
 Kilowatt hours per employee in manufacturing up 36.8%
since 1997
27
27:03
Story Ideas – Manufacturing & Services
 Example Headlines
 Photofinishing down 48.7% since 2001
 Decline decelerated to just ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and
2009
 Revenue for Casinos up 47% since 2001,
 declined slightly ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009
 Grew 9.1% in first quarter 2011
 Architectural services rebounds from lagging 2009 and
early 2010 with 12.5% year to year increase for 2010/11
 One of the last service industries to rebound from the recession
 The value of manufacturers new orders decreased 1.2%
between March & April 2011, having increased 3.8% from
February to March
28
30:04
Wrap-up and Overview
Annual Estimates
Quarterly/Monthly Estimates
Detailed estimates that include
additional data items beyond core
items

Estimates at a higher level and
include core data items
Estimates not as timely

Estimates available shortly after
reference period

Voluntary response

Small sample size

Less reliable
Mandatory response
Larger sample size
More reliable
29
33:04
Thank You!
• Website address: www.census.gov
• Contact Information
U.S. Census Bureau
301-763-3030
30
33:38