Transcript Geopolitics: A Guide to the Issues

Geopolitics: A Guide to the
Issues
Bert Chapman
INDIGO Meeting
Indiana University
May 20, 2011
What is geopolitics?
Study of the relationships between
demography, economics,
environment, geography, and politics
and how they influence countries
foreign and national security policies.
Geopolitical Schools of thought:
Classical Geopolitics: Methodologically traditionalist
interpretation of the roles played by geography, natural
resources, and transportation in formulating and
implementing national and international political,
economic, diplomatic, and military strategies.
Geopolitical Schools of Thought
Critical geopolitics: Leftist political and methodological
approach heavily influenced by deconstructionist and
postmodern political theories. Seeks to expose what it
claims are deterministic, exceptionalist, geographic,
ideological, and other flaws it claims exist in traditional
politics.
Modern History of Geopolitics
and Key Founders
Geopolitics first used by Swedish
political scientist Rudolf Kjellén (18641922) in 1899 article in Swedish journal
Ymer.
Kjellén Contributions
• Influenced by German idealist philosophy, social Darwinism,
and prevailing imperialist views
• Believed nation-states were more important than individuals
• Asserted states should be studied as geographical organisms
or spatial phenomena with particular emphasis on a state’s
location to other states in its territorial form or size.
• Believed states possessing the greatest power resources
would win wars
• Supported many German WWI objectives and believed the
U.S. and Russia were the only two countries capable of
becoming world powers.
Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914(
• Professor at U.S. Naval War College whose work
continues influencing the U.S. and other navies.
• Seminal work is The Influence of Sea Power Upon
History, 1660-1783 (1890)
• This work asserted naval and merchant marine
assets were the key reasons England, France,
Holland, and Spain won wars enabling them to
seize overseas colonies, eliminate enemy access
to these colonies, and exploit their natural
resources.
Mahan-Influence of Seapower
• Its publication came at a time of European and
Japanese expansion in Africa and Asia. They soon
would be joined by the U.S.
• Influenced pro-expansionist Americans such as
Secretary of State John Hay; Senator Henry Cabot
Lodge; and Theodore Roosevelt.
• Mahan advocated a larger navy to patrol and defend
the Gulf and Caribbean coasts; believed there would be
a Central American canal; and favored establishing an
eastern Pacific naval perimeter to keep Japan and any
other country from getting within 3,000 miles of San
Francisco.
Friedrich Ratzel (1844-1904)
• German regarded as founder of modern human and political
geography
• Political Geography (1897) credited with establishing the
foundations of geopolitics and saw him introduce lebensraum
to German political rhetoric.
• Believed state space increases with territorial growth; that
states grow by absorbing other smaller units; and that
frontiers are peripheral state organs reflecting a states
strength and growth and aren’t permanent.
• The Sea as the Source of the Greatness of a People (1900)
stressed German commitment to Weltpolitik and maritime
expansion .
• Ratzel was also interested in the importance of environmental
influences such as climate, resources, terrain, and vegetation.
Halford Mackinder (1861-1947)
• Preeminent British promoter of geopolitics
• Stressed the strategic importance of the British
Isles physical location and natural resources
endowment.
• “The Geographical Pivot of History” (1904)
published by the Royal Geographical Society’s
Geographical Journal stressed his concern that
one power or alliance of powers could gain
control of Eurasia and use that region’s resources
for global domination.
Mackinder
• Believed Russia’s geographic position made it
possible for it to expand its power and saw China and
Japan as future challengers to Russia.
• Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919) contended
power was becoming more centralized in all large
states and that populations would be susceptible to
government manipulation.
• Supported the League of Nations and established the
concept of the heartland including all of Eastern
Europe saying that Germany and Russia would seek
to control this region contending:
Mackinder
• Who rules East Europe commands the
Heartland
• Who Rules the Heartland Commands the
World Island
• Who Rules the World Island commands the
world.
• This work had limited immediate impact in the
U.S. and UK, but stronger impact in Germany.
Sergei Gorshkov (1910-1988)
• Admiral and commander-in-chief of the Soviet
Navy (1956-1985)
• Transformed the Soviet navy from a coastal
force to a blue water maritime power with
aircraft carriers and submarines capable of
challenging U.S. naval supremacy globally.
• Wrote books such as Red Star Rising at Sea
(1974); Seapower of the State (1983); and
articles in the journal Military Thought
Golbery do Couto e Silva (1911-1987)
• Brazilian military figure involved with that country’s Superior War
College.
• In works such as Brazilian Geopolitics (1981), advocated exclusive
Brazilian leadership in South America.
• Favored an anti-Communist partnership with the U.S. to protect
South Atlantic maritime waters from a Soviet attack between the
Atlantic Narrows and West African bulge.
• Distrusted adjacent Spanish-speaking countries such as Argentina,
Colombia, and Peru whom he believed wanted to encircle Brazil.
• Advocating expanding internal Brazilian frontiers by developing the
Amazon and Brazil’s northeastern and southern regions.
• Incorporated Mackinder and Mahan into his writings.
Selected Countries & Geopolitical
Interests/Practices
• Australia: Maintaining close security ties with
the U.S., concerned with access to Persian
Gulf; desires unfettered access to Antarctica;
has growing trade relationships with China
and other East Asian countries; concerned
with political and security developments in
Indonesian archipelago; has intervened
militarily in Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor,
Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands.
Canada
• Cooperates with U.S. to prevent ballistic missile
attacks against North America; has military forces
in Afghanistan; seeks to protect national
sovereignty in Arctic region though it hasn’t put
significant military forces in that region until the
current Stephen Harper Conservative
Government; concerned with how climate
change may affect Arctic populations and how
this may increase international shipping traffic
and natural resources competition (oil and
natural gas) with nations such as Russia, the U.S.
et. al.
China
• Seeks to reclaim Taiwan; increasing the size of its
conventional and nuclear military forces; seeks to
provide maritime security for its growing demand
for natural resources from as far away as Latin
America and Africa; interested in South China Sea
natural resources and has disputes with countries
such as Japan; has close ties with Pakistan and
may compete with India for Indian Ocean control;
seeks to challenge U.S. Western Pacific naval
preeminence.
India
• Developing military capability to enable it to expand
beyond the South Asian subcontinent; its population is
expected to surpass China’s around 2025; has nuclear
weapons and a nuclear agreement with the U.S. giving it
access to nuclear fuel and technology; has challenging
relationship with Pakistan including their dispute over
Kashmir; hydropolitics challenges with neighboring
countries over the Ganges and Indus rivers; will increase
security cooperation with the U.S. to hedge against
China; may adopt an Indian Ocean Monroe Doctrine to
ensure no power(s) can restrict its access to the Indian
Ocean or natural resources
United States
• Remains world’s preeminent military power though
facing acute financial challenges such as $14 trillion
national debt; concerned with maintaining freedom
of the seas; working collaboratively with other
nations but taking preemptive military action if
needed; concerned with Chinese challenges in the
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, Africa etc.;
competition for natural resources and reducing
dependency on foreign imports; Islamist terrorism
(Afghanistan, Iraq); Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear
weapons aspirations.
Geography of U.S. Combatant Military
Commands
• Northern Command (NORTHCOM)-Covers N. America &
Arctic
• Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)-Covers Central & S.
America
• Africa Command (AFRICOM)-Covers Africa-established 2007
• Central Command(CENTCOM)-Covers Mideast from Egypt
to Kazakhstan)
• European Command (EUCOM)-Covers Europe, Turkey, & all
of Russia)
• Pacific Command (PACOM)-Covers India, China, SE Asia,
Oceania, & most of the Pacific Ocean
Current and Emerging Geopolitical
“Hot Spots”
• Afghanistan/Pakistan
• Arctic Natural Resources esp. oil/natural gas-Russia flag planting
North Pole 2007-Denmark expects to claim North Pole seabed by
2014
• China in Africa
• China’s “String of Pearls Basing Strategy” and Future Military
Objectives-Has support facilities in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistanparticipates in antipiracy efforts in Indian Ocean
• Climate Change
• Cyberwarfare
• Energy Policy and Competition (e.g. European dependence on
Russia for oil and natural gas-Dec. 2005 Russia cuts off natural gas
supplies to Ukraine-affects EU)
Geopolitical Hot Spots
•
•
•
•
•
Failed States e.g. Somalia
Global Immigration/Migration incl. U.S./Mexico border
Global Pandemics
Iran-nuclear weapons program
Islamic Integration in Europe (Current population estimated
15-18 million; estimated to reach 10% of Europe’s
population by 2020)
• Israel/Palestine
• Latin American Geopolitics (Drug wars; Iran’s desire to use
Hezbollah; Hugo Chavez, Charcas Triangle-resource rich
region involving surrounding countries Argentina, Bolivia,
Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay)
Geopolitical Hot Spots
•
•
•
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Maritime Piracy
Mexican Drug Wars and Central American Gangs
Nigeria’s Delta Region
Russian Foreign Policy toward “Near Abroad”
Countries (e.g.) 2008 war with Georgia
• South China Sea/Strait of Malacca
• Sovereign Debt e.g. Greece, Ireland, Portugal,
potentially U.S i.e high borrowing from China et. al.
• Terrorism, Turkey, Yemen & Bab el Mandeb Strait
Information Resources
• Militaries; especially war colleges and research
centers
• Foreign ministries; finance departments; energy,
environmental, natural resources departments
• Congressional and parliamentary committees
• International government organizations and nongovernment organizations
• Scholarly books, journals, dissertations/theses blogs,
Facebook, twitter
Conclusions
• Understanding geography is critical for
understanding and analyzing domestic and
international economic, environmental, diplomatic,
political, and security developments.
• We need to be able to read and understand political,
geographic, topographic, and other kinds of maps.
• Need to understand the critical importance of
strategic chokepoints such as Panama Canal, Strait of
Hormuz, Suez Canal, Strait of Malacca, Bab el
Mandeb Strait to national and international
economies and security.
Conclusions
• Recognize how geography has always affected and will always
affect international economic, political, and security
relationships.
• Recognize how international political power always has been
and always will be characterized by conflict, including military
conflict, and access to resources and economic markets.
• Geopolitics is the ultimate interdisciplinary subject with
unlimited research possibilities
• Importance of U.S. restoring fiscal solvency so it can
successfully defend its global economic and strategic interests
through military strength and prudent collaboration with
allied nations.
Yemen and Strait of Bab-el Mandeb
Spratly Islands
Strait of Malacca
China’s Disputed Territories
China Import Transit
Routes/Chokepoints
China Maritime Activity
• China is increasing its naval spending and
maritime security activities and is increasingly
interested in developing its power projection
capabilities to cover the two Pacific Island
chains as the map in the next slide
demonstrates.
China’s 1st & 2nd Island Chains
Maritime Perimeter