Transcript Document

2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE
Fourth Edition
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
State, Nine Regions, and 93 Counties
Demographic Change in the State
Economic Influences at Work
Housing Statistics, Trends, & Forecast
Summary of Findings
2006 Nebraska Profile
1
January 25, 2006
Nine Regions and 93 Counties
2006 Nebraska Profile
2
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
Racial Minorities still growing quickly
 Growth of Hispanics is strong as well
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Nebraska Population by Race
2000
Race
White
Black
All Other
Total
Ethnicity
Hispanic
2006 Nebraska Profile
2004 % Change
1,585,617
70,043
55,603
1,711,263
1,609,056
74,815
63,343
1,747,214
1.5%
6.8%
13.9%
2.1%
94,425
119,975
27.1%
3
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
Losing population < 20 years old
 Seem to be gaining 20-24 and 55-64
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Population Change by Age
Age
Under 20
20-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
65 or Older
Total
2006 Nebraska Profile
2000 Census
504,336
120,331
223,273
489,588
141,540
232,195
1,711,263
Jul-04
488,597
136,736
229,273
493,630
167,175
231,803
1,747,214
4
% Change
-3.12%
13.63%
2.69%
0.83%
18.11%
-0.17%
2.10%
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
North and South declining
 Only urbanized counties growing:
Urban = Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy
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Regional Population Change
2000 Census, 2003 and 2004 Population Estimates
Region 2000 Census July 2003 Est July 2004 Est
Change
North
390,293
385,444
383,095
-7,198
South
484,499
483,470
484,489
-10
Urban
836,471
868,561
879,630
43,159
Nebraska
1,711,263
1,737,475
1,747,214
35,951
2006 Nebraska Profile
5
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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Census Bureau estimates by county
2006 Nebraska Profile
6
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
Fewer people leaving Nebraska
 Significant international migration
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CENSUS BUREAU POPULATION ESTIMATES
BIRTHS, DEATHS, AND MIGRATION: 2000-2005
April 2000 to July 2005
Starting Population
Births
Deaths
Natural Increase
International Migration
Domestic Migration
Net Migration
Residual
July 1, 2005 Population
2006 Nebraska Profile
1,711,263
132,394
80,290
52,104
22,199
-26,206
-4,007
-573
1,758,787
7
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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IRS net migration data for Nebraska
Nebraska Net Migration by Zone
2000 through 2004
Num ber of Persons
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
2000
North
2006 Nebraska Profile
2001
2002
South
8
2003
2004
Urban
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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IRS returns and exemptions for Nebraska
IRS Returns and Exemptions
Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006 Nebraska Profile
Net Returns
-3,453
-2,950
-3,537
-4,111
-3,144
-1,507
-2,479
Total Returns Exemptions
600,068
1,370,621
608,292
1,380,325
617,254
1,394,264
622,009
1,399,145
626,689
1,404,327
630,009
1,415,070
630,593
1,418,198
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January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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DMV data indicates otherwise
Quarterly Net Migration In Nebraska
Drawn From Driver's License Exchanges 2001 - 2004
2,000
1,674
1,367 1,500
Net Driver's Licenses
1,500
1,477
1,851
1,368
865
1,000
743 625
447
543
500
274
0
-500
-18 -180
-359
-605
-1,000
01.1 01.2 01.3 01.4 02.1 02.2 02.3 02.4 03.1 03.2 03.3 03.4 04.1 04.2 04.3 04.4
Year and Quarter
2006 Nebraska Profile
10
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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Positive change strong in working years
Indicators of Migration
Nebr. Department of Motor Vehicles - Net Exchanged
Age
2001
2002
2003
2004
14-25
-1,222
1,081
1,358
362
26-45
251
2,400
3,303
1,347
46-65
-290
514
709
649
66+
95
282
375
357
Missing
4
-2
.
-1
Total
-1,162
4,275
5,745
2,714
2006 Nebraska Profile
11
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
Positive change in South and Urban
 Urban has most of increase
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Driver's License Net of Exchanged and Surrendered Licenses
Region
North
South
Urban
Out of State
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
2001
-325
-193
-616
-28
-1,162
2002
614
781
2,867
13
4,275
12
2003
583
1,236
3,960
-34
5,745
2004
-215
339
2,619
-29
2,714
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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PUMS data shows domestic migration
Population Migration
(Place of Residence One Year Ago)
PUMS 2000, 2001, 2003, AND 2004
Where From…
2000
2001
2003
2004
Nebraska Intrastate
234,529 234,081 224,061 212,385
Domestic Interstate
32,606 35,868 63,717 50,285
Total U.S.
267,135 269,949 287,778 262,670
International
11,238
8,149
3,518 10,358
Total Migration
278,373 278,098 291,296 273,028
2006 Nebraska Profile
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January 25, 2006
Demographics:
Domestic Migration
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PUMS data shows
where people came
from in 2004
2006 Nebraska Profile
14
State
California
Iowa
Texas
Kansas
Florida
Colorado
Other States
Nebraska
Total
2004
7,011
6,944
5,573
4,139
3,538
3,004
20,076
212,385
262,670
January 25, 2006
Demographics:
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PUMS data shows international declined
over last couple of years, up in 2004
Population Migration - International
Region
Europe & Eastern Europe
Central & South America
Africa
Asia
Middle East
North America/Australia
Total
2006 Nebraska Profile
2000
450
6,522
422
3,844
.
.
11,238
15
2001
1,846
1,382
687
3,636
288
310
8,149
2003
477
1,207
233
1,283
108
210
3,518
2004
2,587
1,161
1,854
3,893
346
517
10,358
January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Employment has expanded moderately
Nebraska Full and Part-Time Employment
1969-2004
1,250,000
Employment: Jobs
1,150,000
1,050,000
950,000
850,000
750,000
650,000
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
Year
2006 Nebraska Profile
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January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Nebraska business establishments
Nebraska Business Establishments
1986-2003
Business Establishm ents
52,000
50,000
48,000
46,000
44,000
42,000
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Year
2006 Nebraska Profile
17
January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Nebraska vs U.S. unemployment rates
Nebraska vs U.S. Unemployment Rates
1978-2004
Unem ploym ent Rate
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
78
81
84
87
90
Nebraska Unemployment Rate
2006 Nebraska Profile
93
96
99
02
U.S. Unemployment Rate
18
January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Nebraska unemployment rates by Zone
Nebraska Unemployment Rates by Zone
2000 - 2004
Unem ploym ent Rate
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2000
North
2006 Nebraska Profile
2001
2002
South
19
2003
2004
Urban
January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Income – earned income per job
Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings per Job
2004 Dollars
50,000
Real Average
$ per Job
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
Earnings per Job in Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
Earnings per Job in U.S.
20
January 25, 2006
Economics:
Industries with highest rates of pay
 Farm earnings up 154% 02-03, 8.5% 04
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Employment and Real Earnings per Job
Nebraska: BEA 2004
NAICS Categories
Management of companies
Information
Transportation & warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Mining
2006 Nebraska Profile
Emp
14,837
23,373
55,803
43,998
2,520
21
Earnings
1,015,771
1,259,267
2,965,650
2,238,090
127,575
Per Job
68,462
53,877
53,145
50,868
50,625
January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Per capita income keeps pace with U.S.
Nebraska vs U.S. Real per Capita Income
2004 Dollars
Real per Capita Income
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
U.S.
22
January 25, 2006
Economics:

Personal Bankruptcies continue upward
Nebraska Personal Bankruptcies
1987 Through September 2005
Personal Bankruptcies
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
87
2006 Nebraska Profile
89
91
93
95
23
97
99
01
03
05
January 25, 2006
Economics:
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Nebraska Poverty Rates
Poverty Rates
Nebraska and U.S. - 1998-2003
13
Poverty Rate
12
11
10
9
8
1998
1999
2000
2001
U.S.
2006 Nebraska Profile
2002
2003
Nebraska
24
January 25, 2006
Housing:
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Housing Production: SF and MF
Total Dwelling Units Permitted in Nebraska
1980 through 2004
12,000
Perm its Issued
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
80
82
84
86
88
90
Single-family Units
2006 Nebraska Profile
92
Year
25
94
96
98
00
02
04
Total Units
January 25, 2006
Housing:
With
pop down, housing is up everywhere
Housing Unit Change by Zone
2000 Census and 2004 Housing Estimates
Region
2000
2004
Change
North
170,412
174,106
3,694
South
210,386
216,133
5,747
Urban
341,870
367,504
25,634
Nebraska
722,668
757,743
35,075
2006 Nebraska Profile
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January 25, 2006
Housing:
 Average
prices for single-family homes
Average Sales Prices in PA&T Data
Zone
North
South
Urban
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
Single-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
66,996 67,588 72,693 74,639 78,653 83,181
67,630 68,191 73,377 77,460 81,279 88,307
114,143 113,358 128,058 129,124 138,363 144,876
91,617 91,441 102,885 105,570 113,329 119,116
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January 25, 2006
Housing:
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Prices by County from PA&T
2006 Nebraska Profile
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January 25, 2006
Housing:
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Size and market values per square foot
Average Price, Size, and Unit Cost
Single-Family Homes
Year Built
Average $ Square feet $/Sq Ft
Before 1930
56,100
1,234
45.45
1931-1960
79,910
1,113
71.8
1961-1970
103,794
1,281
81.01
1971-1980
114,911
1,392
82.54
1981-1990
141,019
1,526
92.39
1991-2004
174,689
1,694
103.11
77.05
Average
104,114
1,351
2006 Nebraska Profile
29
January 25, 2006
Housing:
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Value of Single Family Construction
Value of Single-Family Construction
1980 through 2004
$138,650
Real Value, $1,000s
140
120
100
80
60
80
2006 Nebraska Profile
82
84
86
88
90
92
30
94
96
98
00
02
04
January 25, 2006
Housing:

Nebraska Association of Realtors
Nebraska Association of Realtors
Average Home Sales Prices
1998 through August 2005
Average Nom inal Price
160,000
156,135
150,000
142,859
139,109
140,000
129,499
130,000
119,552
131,867
123,780
120,000
111,442
110,000
100,000
1998
2006 Nebraska Profile
1999
2000
2001
31
2002
2003
2004
2005
January 25, 2006
Housing:

OFHEO – Housing Price Index
OFHEO Housing Price Index
Nebraska vs U.S. 1975 through 2005: 1980 = 100
400
373
Price Index
350
300
251
250
200
150
100
50
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
U.S.
32
January 25, 2006
Housing:
Results from November 2005 survey
 Statewide vacancy rate up from 5.9%

Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys
Zone
North
South
Urban
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
2005 Survey
Srvys.
Units
287
6,474
367
12,580
304
63,197
958
82,251
2002
6.3
5.3
6.0
5.9
33
Vacancy Rates
2003
2004
8.9
9.3
9.8
7.2
5.1
6.1
6.1
6.6
2005
8.4
8.8
6.4
6.9
January 25, 2006
Housing:
Degree of need for new construction
 1 = no need; 5 = extreme need

Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys
Zone
North
South
Urban
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
1
131
135
164
430
Degree of Need for New Units
2
3
4
43
46
21
54
73
33
39
40
13
136
159
67
34
5
23
35
13
71
January 25, 2006
Housing:

Degree of need for new construction
Nebraska Rental Survey
Need for New Rental Construction
60%
Pe r ce nt Dis tr ibution
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
2002
2006 Nebraska Profile
3
2003
4
2004
35
5
2005
January 25, 2006
Housing:
 Asked
for need for rehab as well
 Extreme need occurring more frequently
Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys
Zone
North
South
Urban
Nebraska
2006 Nebraska Profile
Degree of Need for Rehab of Existing Units
1
2
3
4
5
32
38
74
55
27
53
45
90
50
56
42
18
95
36
27
127
101
259
141
110
36
January 25, 2006
Housing:
Sentiment
is moderate need for rehab
N ebraska R ental S urvey
N e e d for R e habilitation of Existing U nits
Pe r ce n t Dis tr ib u tio n
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
2002
2006 Nebraska Profile
3
2003
4
2004
37
5
2005
January 25, 2006
Summary of Findings:
Population declines in rural areas
 Pop growth in cities and east
 Nebr. is more racially diverse
 Nebr. employment grows modestly
 Income rises
 Homeownership continues rising

2006 Nebraska Profile
38
January 25, 2006
Summary of Findings:
SF housing production high
 Homeowner prices rise everywhere
 Problems persist for low-income persons
 Emerging weakness in some rental
markets

2006 Nebraska Profile
39
January 25, 2006
Summary of Findings:
Changing
characteristics and attributes
of market present opportunities to
realign housing resources - urban/rural
 Upgrades and preservation
 Lot production
 New construction in selected markets
2006 Nebraska Profile
40
January 25, 2006