Transcript Turkey’s EU Membership: opportunities and challenges

TURKEY’S EU MEMBERSHIP:
OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES
Sophie Di Francesco-Mayot
Monash European and EU Centre, Monash University
Outline
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Brief history
Membership conditions
Discourses “For” and “Against” Turkish EU membership
Official views: UK, French, German, Turkish
Public opinions: European and Turkish
Current Challenges & Future prospects
Reflective Questions
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Is Turkey a European Country?
What is the nature of the EU?
Will Turkey be an asset or a liability to the EU?
What are the economic, political, social-cultural &
religious implications of Turkish accession?
Brief History
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1959 Turkey applied for “associate membership”
1963 the ‘Ankara Agreement’
1970s ‘Additional protocol’
1987 application for formal membership into EC
1995 establishment of Custom Union
1999 Helsinki European Council officially recognises
Turkey as candidate for membership
2004 initiation of EU negotiations with Turkey
2005 Turkey’s official status as candidate for full
membership.
Membership conditions
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1) Legal requirements
 Article
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237 Treaty of Rome
‘any European state may apply
to become a member of the
Community’.
 Article
F Maastricht Treaty
member
states shall have
‘systems of government […]
founded on the principles of
democracy’.
Membership conditions
2) ‘Copenhagen Criteria’
 1993- European Council establishes three criteria:
1. Stable institutions guaranteeing
2. Functioning market economy and the capacity to
cope with competitive pressure and market forces
within the Union;
3. Ability to take on the obligations of membership,
3) The accession process
 Negotiations between candidate country and European
Commission.
Discourses “For” and “Against”
Turkish EU membership
Geographic Debate
For
Unique geo-strategic
position would
contribute to European
security.
 Invaluable bridge
between Europe and
Asia.
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Against
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97% of its territory lies in
Asia
Political Debate
Against
For
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Turkey a vibrant
democracy.
Strengthen pluralistic
politics & improve
human rights.
Strong NATO ally.
Undermine European
credibility.
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Not a mature European-style
democracy.
Human rights abused.
Amnesty International’s
annual report
Europe would import the
Kurdish issue.
Economic Debate
Against
For
Populous & youthful
population
 2011- fastest growing
economy in Europe
(8.5%)
 2013- Turkey expected to
have 3.5% growth (IMF)
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“too big, too poor and
too Muslim.
 Underdeveloped
economy
 Its GDP per capita
less than half EU
average.
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Identity Debate
Against
For
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Limitations of “Clash of
Civilisation” theory
EU open to Islamic world.
European identity based on
values
Euro-Islam against Islamic
radicalisation.
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Historic & cultural roots in
Central Asia and Middle East.
Lacks shared experiences
which prompted drive for united
Europe.
Cultural & religious traditions
are fundamentally different
from Christian Europe.
The EU and Turkish membership
Official UK view
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4 November 2009, David Miliband, stated
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“I am very clear that Turkish accession to the EU is important and
will be of huge benefit to both Turkey and the EU.”
27 July 2010, David Cameron, promised to "fight" for
Turkey's membership of EU.
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“A European Union without Turkey at its heart is not stronger but
weaker... not more secure but less... not richer but poorer.”
Official French view
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Nicolas Sarkozy opposed Turkish EU
membership:
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“I do not believe that Turkey belongs to
Europe, and for a simple reason: because it
is in Asia Minor”…what I wish to offer
Turkey is a true partnership with Europe,
but not integration into Europe".
François Hollande: open talks on
chapter related to EU support for
regions
Official German view
A privileged partnership
 September 2011 Merkel stated:
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“We don't want the full membership of Turkey. But
we don't want to lose Turkey as an important country.”
February 2013 Merkel stated:
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“I believe we have a long negotiation road ahead of
us. Although I am sceptical, I am for the continuation
of the process and for opening a new chapter.”
European Public
2006 Eurobarometer: 59% EU-27 citizens against
 Underpinning factors:
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Human rights
Job loss
Threat to National cultures
Support - predominantly based on ‘right-based’ postnational arguments
 Opposition- mainly connected with ‘identity-related’
arguments
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Turkey’s view on EU membership
Istanbul
Ankara
Official Turkish Opinion
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September 2012, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, PM of
Turkey:
"There are 5 million Turks in Europe and 3 million Turk in
Germany alone. We are a natural member of the European
Union. Germany invited Turkish workers 50 years ago,
however 50 years have passed and we have waited at
the European Union's doorstep. No other country has
experienced such a thing. We will be patient until a point.
However when we cross that point, we will bring light to the
situation and decide accordingly."
Turkish public opinion
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Increasingly sceptical
2006 Eurobarometer survey:
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43% of Turkish citizens view the EU positively
Turks divided on whether to join.
2007 poll Turkish support for EU (41.9% ) with 27.7% opposed &
24% indifferent.
2009 poll support for accession (48%) & negative views of EU (32%).
2012 Transatlantic Trends survey- (53%) of Turks have an
unfavourable view of EU.
Majority Turks believe working with Asia more important to their
national interests than with Europe.
44% of Turks believe EU membership good for the economy in
contrast with 61% for EU citizens.
The Cyprus Issue
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Divided almost 40 years
Conflict between the Republic of
Cyprus and Turkey over the
Turkish occupied northern part of
Cyprus
Chapters
Frozen Chapters
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Chapters Frozen:
1,2,3,9,11,13,14,15,17,22,23,24,26,29,30,31,33,(34)
17 Frozen making it difficult for Turkey to complete
Acquis.
The EU Council froze the opening of eight chapters over
Turkey's rejection to open its ports & airports to traffic
from Cyprus in 2006
Some of the chapters do not proceed to the next stage in
the process, because they are blocked by Cyprus.
Some of the chapters do not proceed to the next stage in
the process, because they are blocked by France.
Current challenges
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February 2013- France agrees to lift
objections
28 May 2013- Turkish government’s
crackdown on nationwide protests
25 June 2013- member states
resume talks with Turkey. End of 3year suspension of talks.
EP criticised Turkey’s handling of
demonstration: “disproportionate
unbalance and irrational
declarations”
Anti- Government Protests
25 June 2013:
 EU rebuked Turkey on antigovernment protesters.
 EU governments back
German-inspired proposal
 9 October 2013:
 European Commission
report on reforms & human
rights in Turkey
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Future Prospects
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Turkey EU membership presents EU with many challenges
& opportunities.
EU could serve as a model for the Middle Eastern region
by demonstrating that democracy and Islam are not
antagonists.
The EU a model for the world? Built on recognition of
universal rights & values as opposed to exclusionary
ideas of cultural and religious homogeneity.