Transcript Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Local government in
2013…
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Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
[email protected]
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@benatipsosmori
www.ipsos-mori.com
Impressive reductions in spending….
Real budget increase 2010–11 to 2015–16
International Development
NHS (Health)
Transport
Energy and Climate Change
Education
Defence
Total DEL
Home Office
Business, Innovation and Skills
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Justice
CLG Local Government
Work and Pensions
Culture, Media and Sport
Foreign and Commonwealth Office
CLG Communities
Note: Figures show cumulative change in total DEL after economy-wide inflation.
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35.5
4.2
0.3
-4.8
-8.4
-8.9
-10.3
-24.1
-25.9
-33.6
-34.1
-35.0
-38.3
-45.0
-55.1
-60.6
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, July 2013
Half full or half
empty?
Paste cobrand logo
here
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Formerly loony councils now pretty good!
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council runs things?
100
% satisfied with council
90
% of residents satisfied with Hackney Council
80
74
70
60
53
50
40
30
23
20
10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year of survey
Base: Hackney Residents Survey All respondents (1,016). Fieldwork dates 5 January – 6 March 2013; Inner LB Residents Survey (1,153, 16+, face to
face ). Fieldwork dates 18 April - 28 June 2011; 2011 Ipsos MORI National Capibus, (875, 15+ face to face). Fieldwork October 2011.
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Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their council’s
services
Q
On balance, do you think services
provided by your local council have
got better or worse over the last 12
months, or do you think they have
stayed the same?
2%
Net better
Got better
14%
Got worse
Stayed the same
Don't know
56%
Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, August 2013
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GB
-14
London
-7
South
-11
Midlands
-8
North
-27
28%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
No sign of a crisis in trust
Trust %
70
60
Parliament
Local Council
60
61
35
34
62
64
63
57
52
54
36
38
50
40
37
36
33
29
30
20
10
2001
2003
2005
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Base: Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521,
Aug 2012 – April 2013: 6,915)
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2010-11
2012-13
Source: Citizenship Survey/ Community Life Survey
Nationally as many services improving as
deteriorating
Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed
the same?
Got much better
Recycling collection
Parks and open spaces
GPs surgeries
Refuse collection
Hospitals
Schools and colleges
Leisure centres
Bus service
Street lighting
Libraries
Street cleaning
The police
Care for the elderly
Road maintenance
Meals-on-wheels
Base: 1,031
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Got a little better
27
15
18
11
18
13
16
11
16
8
20
14
11
8
13
8
12
9
11
7
12
5
10
4
7
4
7
3
Got a little worse
Got much worse
21
6
9
6
6
14
18
14
11
12
14
16
9
8
4 3
11
8
9
8
9
7
10
11
15
13
10
12
49
3 2
Source: BBC October 2013
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Street lighting ok – not road condition….
Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…?
Street
lighting
Overall
67.9
67.2
62.3
59.5
58.8
58.5
54.6
53.8
51.9
51.9
51.0
48.1
30.3
Buses
Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013
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Cycle
routes/
facilities
Road
condition
Source: m2i
Clear what’s getting worse
Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…?
Change +
+6.0
Reducing traffic
+1.1
Safer roads
+0.7
Pavements
Local buses
+0.5
Taxi services
+0.5
Rights of Way
-0.3
Demand responsive transport
-0.4
Community transport
-0.8
Cycle routes
-0.8
Street lighting
-1.4
Overall*
-3.9
Highway condition
-10.5
Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013
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*vs 2010
Source: m2i
Not always been like this
Q.
% Dissatisfied
Satisfied
How satisfied or dissatisfied
would you%say
you are with road maintenance in this area?
60
52
51
50
45
40
30
42
47
46
41
42
36
46
45
41
40
30
20
10
0
2003
2004
Source: Ipsos MORI for CSS
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Base: 1,000-2,000 GB adults
Dissatisfaction in County Councils – from 53% to 81%...
70 LAs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Base: valid responses among 53,676 English adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013
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60%
70%
80%
90%
Source: Ipsos MORI
100%
Among users…look at the bottom….
Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed
the same?
Better
Leisure centres
36
Bus services
36
16
23
Base: Response from those who use the service
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+20
29
+7
29
+6
29
28
28
+1
22
23
Hospitals
+21
+12
11
GP service
Care for the elderly
+27
43
22
Parks and open spaces
Libraries
Net score
9
Schools and colleges
Meals on wheels
Worse
32
22
32
-4
-10
Source: BBC October 2013
Care for people with dementia is considered poor
Q How well do you feel that these groups are currently cared for by the NHS in
your local area?
Very well
Quite well
Children and families
People over 65
Not very well
20%
9%
People with mental health
conditions
5%
People with dementia
Base: Adults aged 16+ in England, December 2012 (1004)
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4%
9% 2% 20%
49%
10%
People with long term
illnesses or conditions
Don’t know
Not well at all
45%
17%
46%
30%
23%
6%
15% 5%
23%
24%
8%
10%
21%
25%
35%
39%
Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker
Almost 2 in 3 lack confidence that older people receiving
care services are treated with dignity and respect
How confident are you or not that older people who receive care services
(such as help with getting dressed or washing) either at home or in a care
home are treated with dignity and respect?
Don’t know
9%
Not
confident
63%
0%
0%
0%Very
confident
5%
Fairly
23% confident
Not at all confident 21%
Confident
28%
42%
Not very confident
Base: General public aged 50+ (971) 8-26 March 2013
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Source: Ipsos MORI/Age UK
Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT...
To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements
Disagree
Agree
Around one in four people agree with both statements....
I haven’t really noticed any changes to the
services provided by my local council
34
The cuts in local council services have gone
too far and will lead to social unrest
47
65
48
Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+
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Ipsos MORI/ NLGN, January 2013
BUT… although economic worry on wane nationally, locally
public growing concerned about what is yet to come
Q How concerned, if at all, are you about the effect of cuts to local council services
on you and your family in the next 12 months?
Very concerned
Fairly concerned
Not very concerned
Not at all concerned
Don't know
January 2013
August 2013
1%
12%
10%
1%
21%
31%
Concerned
55%
Concerned
66%
23%
32%
34%
35%
Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Britain, August 2013 / 1,015 adults aged 18+ in Britain, January 2013
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Varies as you’d expect…
% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their
families
77
69
61
All
55
AB
58
C1
62
C2
D
E
Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012
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72
60
Social grade
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72
Up to
£19k
£20k £35k
Income
61
54
52
£35k £55k
£55k+
54
1-2
3 services
4+
services
services
Public service use
Source: Ipsos MORI
Public contradiction about the tough road ahead presents
challenges for how things are managed in the future
Q To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following
statements
Disagree
I am personally happy to accept less from my
local council than I currently get in order to
help pay off the national debt
I would be happy to pay more council tax if it
helped my local council maintain current
levels of service
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, January 2013
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57
64
Agree
40
34
Source: Ipsos MORI/ NLGN
At a time when councils have to manage this...
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Generations – expecting better or
worse life than parents?
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Better
%
Worse
%
Generation Y
42
29
Generation X
60
19
Baby Boomers
70
14
Pre-War
79
8
Generational
change makes
your jobs harder
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Different generations now have very different expectations
“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state
is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”
80%
% % Agree/Strongly agree
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2001
Pre war (before 1945)
All data points represent > 200 responses
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2002
2003
2004
Baby boomers (1945-65)
2005
2006
2007
Generation x (1966-1979)
2008
2009
2010
Generation y (1980-2000)
Source: British Social Attitudes
A noble goal...what would make you happiest?
%
Double
my
income
60
50
Better Health
40
30
20
10
0
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
Age
Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept
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75+
The public claim to be in good health
Q How is your health in general? Would you say it was...
100
%
90
Very good/ good health
80
76
70
60
50
40
30
20
Very bad/ bad health
10
6
0
Data up to 2002 are unweighted. From 2003 onwards, data have been weighted for non-response
Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (at least 4,500 per wave)
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Source: Health Survey for England
The facts say …..obesity levels
Source: Health Survey for England
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The facts say - booze consumed
Source: Health Survey for England
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They are aware of the big health issues
Q Thinking generally, what are the biggest health problems facing people today? What else?
Cancer
Obesity/overeating
Alcohol abuse
Heart disease
Age-related illnesses
Smoking
Diabetes
Unhealthy lifestyle
Stress/pressure
Obesity in children
Dementia
Mental health
Poor diet
Drugs abuse
Lack of exercise
Base: 1,004 English adults aged 16+, Dec 2012
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34%
30%
16%
16%
16%
13%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%
7%
6%
5% All mentions above 2%
Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker
And they say they recognise the importance of lifestyle
Q Looking at this card, which factors, if any, do you think have the biggest impact on your chances of
living a long and healthy life?
79%
Your lifestyle
Your genes
39%
35%
Your social circumstances
17%
NHS
7%
Whether you are male or female
Having a university degree
2%
No answer
1%
Don't know
1%
Base: 1,994 British adults, Aug 2008
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Source: Ipsos MORI
They claim price is key to helping them be healthier
Q Which of the following would encourage you to lead a healthier lifestyle?
Lower prices for using leisure centres
44%
40%
Lower prices for healthy food
Better sports and leisure facilities
Having more time
Being told to by my doctor for health reasons
Having more healthy food available in local shops
Better access to weight loss services
Better information about how to eat healthily
Better information about how to be more physically active
Having help with my caring responsibilities
Better access to stop smoking services
Advice and support to stop/cut down drinking alcohol
Nothing, I already lead a healthy lifestyle
Base: 4,824 adults, Sept - Dec 2011
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24%
23%
17%
15%
10%
9%
6%
4%
3%
2%
19%
Source: Ipsos MORI
How do human beings make choices/decisions ?
Traditional analysis of human decision making by economists
Rational
decision
-making
process
Gather pertinent
information
Shortcircuits
of the
‘rational’
process
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Decide
without all the
data/using
irrelevant
data
Process pertinent
information
Calculate optimal
choice
Decide without
fully
processing
the facts
Decide
based on
faulty calculations
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Case study – five a day
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Source: 5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US
Re-thinking approaches: the limitation of communications
Have you eaten any fruit and vegetables in the last 24 hours?
1 portion
Awareness of 5-a-day recommendation
5
2005
2009
7
2 portions
5 portions a day
68
78
10
1-4 portions a day
14
8
6+ portions a day
3
1
Don’t know
14
10
Not stated
2
3
11
12
13
4 portions
14
55
5+ portions
49
6
8
Base: 1,732, 2 February 27-March 2009
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2009
%
10
3 portions
Not stated
2005
%
Source: Ipsos MORI
What are
behaviour change
interventions?
“Spillage was reduced
by up to 80%”
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35
Any aspect of the choice
architecture that alters people’s
behaviour in a predictable way
Thaler & Sunstein, Nudge
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Successful change campaigns use a mix
of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing
Inform
Enable
Influence
Incentivise
Enforce
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Source: Websites, press search
But we can also learn from behavioural science
 People make choices without
going through a full ‘rational’
decision-making process’
Inform
Enable
Influence
Incentivise
Enforce
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 Certain biases pre-dispose
people to short-cut the rational
decision-making process
 Using these biases in a
systematic way can make
campaigns significantly more
likely to succeed
Or even more simply….
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Question
What percentage of
African countries
are members of the
United Nations?
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Evidence – anchoring
Numbers
shown on
“roulette”
wheel
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Mean
estimate of
respondents
10
25%
65
45%
Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974
The significance of framing/anchoring
Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an
operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you
that...
90% of people who have the operation are alive for at least 5 years following the
operation
10% of people who have the operation die within 5 years of the operation
56
Very likely
39
33
Quite likely
Not very likely
Not at all likely
Don't know
Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75
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38
3
6
1
2
7
16
Avoid communications on “negatives”
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
Example bias – anchoring
People’s estimates
are swayed by data
suggested to them
beforehand, even
when they know the
data is irrelevant or
false.
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Source: Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis
Case study – anchoring!
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Source: 6 a Day campaign in Denmark
Example bias – Social norms
People tend to
follow their peer
group – if they
see many people
doing something,
they aim to do it
too.
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Source: Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967); Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis
Example bias – reciprocity
You are more
likely to obtain a
large
commitment if
you obtain a
small one first.
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Source: Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis
Behavioural Norms we can use….
Short-circuits of rational
decision-making process
Our Biases
Reciprocity
Liking
Status quo
Consistency
Scarcity
Endowment
Social norms
Authority
Availability/
recency
Choice overload
Justifiability
Anchoring
Framing/
contrast
Regret aversion
Hyperbolic
discounting
Loss aversion
Certainty
preference
Probability
misassessment
Mental
accounting
Breakpoints
False memory
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Decide without
all the data/using
irrelevant data
Decide without
fully processing
all the facts
Decide
based on faulty
calculations
Smarter design to reduce error
Source: ‘Applying behavioural insights to reduce error, fraud and debt,’ Cabinet Office, 2012
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Using social norms
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Optimising messages
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Loft insulation – its not money
5.5
Loft insulation relative to baseline
4.8
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.1
Control
Group Discount
0.5
0.0
Source: Behavioural Insights Team, 2012
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Loft Clearance at cost
Handwritten envelopes
% Response Rate to white envelopes with personalised
messages vs. brown envelopes with no message
30%
25%
26.0%
21.8%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Brown
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Personalised
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52
Opportunities….
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Massive latent DIGITAL demand
54
Q Thinking about public services, which, if any, of the following would
you be prepared to do online?
Q And which have you actually done online in the last 6 months?
% Prepared to do
Find details of local doctors and dentists
% Have done
81
40
Finding out what public services are spending money
on
76
14
Get information about local schools
75
25
Register to vote
72
16
Apply for a driving licence or passport
72
22
Pay your local council tax bill or a parking fine
70
24
Make a complaint
22
Renew a library book
Report a crime
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66
12
2
Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010
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67
51
Source: Ipsos MORI
Paste cobrand logo
here
55
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In conclusion...
• You have dealt much better with austerity than even you
might have suspected!
• Public fearful about the future for services, and for
themselves
• The agenda just keeps getting bigger – focus becomes
more and more important
• Huge opportunities from technology to improve services
• More pressure to lead, rather than manage – tell the story
and take people with you
• Key question – what sort of country do we want to be?
• Good luck!
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