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SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES
is funded principally
through a grant of the
SPE FOUNDATION
The Society gratefully acknowledges
those companies that support the program
by allowing their professionals
to participate as Lecturers.
And special thanks to The American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical,
and Petroleum Engineers (AIME) for their contribution to the program.
The Medium (2020) and Long-Term (2050)
of Oil, Natural Gas and Other Energies
By Pierre-René BAUQUIS
Associated Professor IFP-School
Professor TPA
2003-2004 SPE Distinguished Lecturers Program
Growth rate
% / year
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH RATE
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2100
3/28
HISTORY OF PRIMARY ENERGIES (1850  2000)
Coal
Oil
Hydropower
100%
Renewables (except hydro.)
Natural gas
Nuclear
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1850
1900
1950
2000
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HISTORICAL CHANGES IN WORLD ENERGIES
CARBON INTENSITY
tC/toe
Carbon intensity
1.3
Wood = 1.25
1.2
1.1
Coal = 1.08
1.0
Oil = 0.84
0.9
0.8
Natural gas = 0.64
0.7
0.6
1850
1900
Source: ENERGIE from Nakicenovic & al. '96
1950
2000
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PESSIMISTS HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN WRONG
1919
1936
1981
1990
1998
“... The peak of U.S. production will soon be past possibly within three years”
“…it is unsafe to rest in the assurance that plenty of
petroleum will be found in the future merely because it
has been in the past.”
“If petroleum is not there to begin with, all of the
human ingenuity that can be mustered into the service
of exploration cannot put it there…”
“… non-OPEC production in the longer term will at best
remain stagnant and is more likely to fall gradually due
to resource constraints.”
“Global production of conventional oil will begin to
decline sooner than most people think probably within
10 years”
Source : Daniel BUTLER, U.S. EIA/DOE AEO 2001 conference
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RESERVES and RESSOURCES
 What people "can see": published information, i.e. proven
reserves, which is an economical concept, which therefore
changes with changes in technology and oil prices - These are the
visible part of the iceberg
 What 99% of people "cannot see", i.e. the non visible part of the
iceberg, i.e. the already discovered resources in place on one
hand the ultimate reserves on the other hand
Discovered resources
are not published, but could be
estimated at 3,000 Gbbl i.e. three times
the proven reserves of 1,000 Gbbl
Ultimate reserves
today (estimated 2000/3000 Gbbl) are
two to three times the proven reserves
of around 1,000 Gbbl
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PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE
1973
GTOE
2000
Years of
consumption
GTOE
Years of
consumption
Oil world reserves
86
30
140
40
Gas world reserves
52
48
140
65
Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude
that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves
and that there is no problem
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ULTIMATE RESERVES : A PESSIMISTIC VIEW
Ultimate world oil
conventional reserves
1973
2000
Gbarrels
2000 - 3000
2000 - 3000
Beetween 1973 and 2000 there is practically no increase in
ultimate conventional oil reserves estimates
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Pratt (1942)
Duce (1946)
Pouge (1946)
Weeks (1948)
Leverson (1949)
Weeks (1949)
MacNaughton (1953)
Hubbert (1956)
Weeks (1958)
Weeks (1959)
Hendricks (1965)
Ryamn (1967)
Shell (1968)
Weeks (1968)
Hubbert (1969)
Moody (1970)
Weeks (1971)
Warman (1972)
Bauquis (1972)
Schweinfurth (1973)
Linden (1973)
Bonillas (1974)
Howitt (1974)
Moody (1975)
WEC (1977)
Nelson (1977)
De Bruyne (1978)
Klemme (1978)
Nehring (1978)
Nehring (1979)
Halbouty (1979)
Meyerhoff (1979)
Roorda (1979)
Halbouty (1979)
WEC (1980)
Strickland (1981)
Coliti (1981)
Nehring (1982)
Masters (1983)
Kalinin (1983)
Martin (1984)
Ivanhoe (1984)
Masters (1987)
Campbell (1991)
Masters (1991)
Townes (1993)
Petroconsult. (1993)
Masters (1994)
USGS (2000)
HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES
Gb
0
* Cumulative production + proven reserves +
possible reserves yet to be discovered
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
1940
1949
1950
1959
1960
1969
1970
1979
1980
1989
1990
2000
Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000
10/28
THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONS IN THE
USA
Gbbl/year
Discoveries(*)
Productions
years
(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing
is « forwarded » by 33 years
Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere
11/28
AN USGS VIEW ON WORLD ULTIMATE RESERVES
Already produced :
800
Proven conventional : 1000
Remaining to be discovered :
725
Future "reserve growth" :
610
3135 million of barrels
Source: USGS - WPC - Calgary - June 2000
12/28
CAN WE RECONCILE LONG-TERM VIEWS
 Increase in proven reserves from 1973 to 2000 largely
due to old discoveries reevaluations and not essentially
to new discoveries
 Reevaluations due both to increases in expected
recovery rates, and to underestimation of accumulation
volumes at early evaluation stages
 A secondary factor has been the acceleration of the
delineation - development process
 Last but not least the emergence of non conventional
reserves as part of new proven reserves (permanent
blurring of frontiers beetween the two categories)
Source : P.R. BAUQUIS. Fort Lauderdale 28 NOV 2000
13/28
THE ROLE OF ULTRA-HEAVY OIL IN FUTURE
RESERVES GROWTH
Estimated
volume in place
1995 estimated
reserves
2030 estimated
reserves
Orinoco
1,200
100
300
Athabasca
1,700
100
300
In billion
of barrels
Extra heavy crude - bitumens will represent the major portion of
new "reserves"
(See World Energy Congress Houston September 1998 - Paper by P.R. Bauquis)
14/28
Main uncertainties which could affect oil reserves evolutions
beetween now and 2020 - 2030
 The climate change factor and the resulting CO2
emissions limitation legislation (i.e. Kyoto Protocol and
subsequent
legislation
at
world
and
individual
countries levels)
 The irrationality - Political factors and their possible
effects on energy policies = oil and gas exploration (see
greenpeace campaign to stop all exploration), and even
more important enhanced recovery methods possible
environmental limitations
Global Foundation - November 26/28, 2000
0PRB9_01.ppt - Pierre René BAUQUIS
15/28
WHAT CONTRIBUTION FROM RENEWABLE ENERGIES ?
Power installed
MW
Source: Revue de l'Energie,
50 ans, n° 509 Sept. 99
Electricity generated
TWh
1995
2050
Hydropower
700.000
1.000.000
2.400
3.000
Wind power
5.000
200.000
10
500
Biomass
(for electricity production)
10.000
100.000
50
500
Geothermal
7.000
20.000
30
100
Solar (photovoltaïc)
600
30.000
1
100
Solar (thermal)
-
-
10
50
722.600
1.350.000
2.501
4.250
Total
1995
2050
* Energy equivalence used for electricity: nuclear power and renewables have been accounted as if
they had been generated by conventional thermal power plants having an efficiency of 40% (as
conventionally done by TotalFina)
16/28
IN WORLD ENERGY TERMS, RENEWABLES SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL
ei in pourcentage
of electricity
generated
Electricity generated
in TWh
in Gtep *
1995
2050
Electricity consumptions
(all origins)
13 000
42 000
2.8
Hydropower **
2 400
3 000
Other renewables
100
2 500
Total renewables
1995
2050
ei in pourcentage
of overall
energy
consumptions
1995
2050
1995
2050
9.0
100%
100%
34.0%
50.0%
0.5
0.6
18.0%
7.0%
6.5%
3.5%
1 250
0.02
0.3
0.8%
3.0%
0.3%
1.5%
4 250
0.52
0.9
18.8%
10.0%
6.8%
5.0%
* Energy equivalence used for electricity: nuclear power and renewables have been accounted as
if they had been generated by conventional thermal power plants having an efficiency of 40% (as
conventionally done by TotalFina)
** From which over 95% of large hydropower plants (i.e. plants larger than 10 MW)
17/28
AUTHOR SYNTHETIC ENERGY FUTURE VIEW
2000
Source: Revue de l'Energie,
50 ans, n° 509 Sept. 99
Gtep
2020
%
Gtep
2050
%
Gtep
%
Oil
Natural gas
Coal (including lignite)
3.7
2.1
2.2
40
22
24
5.0
4.0
3.0
40
27
20
3.5
4.5
4.5
20
25
25
Total fossil fuels
8.0
86
12.0
87
12.5
70
Renewables
From which used for
electricity generation
0.7
(0.5)
7.5
1
(0.7)
6.5
1.5
(0.9)
8
Nuclear
0.6
6.5
1
6.5
4
22
Total commercial energies
9.3
100.0
14.0
100.0
18.0
100.0
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APPENDIX
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THE ENREGY MIX UP TO 2050
Coal
Oil
Hydropower
100%
Renewables (except hydro.)
Natural gas
Nuclear
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1900
1950
2000
2050
20/28
THE RELATED GREEN-HOUSE GASES ISSUE
CO2 ppm
550
Assumption 1
500
450
400
Assumption 2
350
300
Mauna Loa
data
250
200
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
Assumption 1: use of 1 GtC generates an increase of 0.277 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere
Assumption 2: use of 1 GtC generates an increase of 0.228 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere
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24/28
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,
HYDROCARBONS AND NUCLEAR:
COMPLEMENTARY ENERGIES 
Making optimum use of each energy source
 Liquid hydrocarbon resources are limited, so they should be
used efficiently - i.e. where their high energy density and
chemical richness are fully exploited:

as transport fuels (land, sea and air)

as raw materials (petrochemicals, chemicals, solvents, etc)
 Heat production, including for power generation, is a less
efficient use of liquid hydrocarbons (except “bottom of the
barrel” cuts and for off-grid consumers or cases where the
grid is deficient)

gaseous hydrocarbons are a more efficient option in certain
cases in both the short and medium terms. However, after
2050 gas resource problems become very likely

in other cases, nuclear power is (already) the best solution in
countries with high safety standards. By 2020-2050, nuclear
power should be very widespread (need for small “fail-safe”
reactors)
25/28
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,
HYDROCARBONS AND NUCLEAR:
COMPLEMENTARY ENERGIES 
Energy complementarities: 2050 and beyond
 Production of hydrocarbons that are difficult to extract from
the reservoirs holding them requires considerable amounts of
energy (e.g. steam injected into the reservoir, thermal
treatment on the surface in the case of mined production).
One way to minimize CO2 production is to use nucleargenerated calories.



further improvement in recovery rates from conventional
deposits, and a fortiori in the case of heavy or extra-heavy
crudes (Athabasca, Orinoco) using nuclear-generated heat
possibility of economic production of oil shales or gas
hydrates?
possibility of improving gas-to-liquid (GTL) or “coal
liquefaction” processes using nuclear-generated hydrogen:
eco-friendly Fischer Tropsch
 The nuclear industry could produce hydrogen for massive
demand in refining and petrochemicals processes
26/28
HYDROGEN AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:
SOME PARADOXES - 
Hydrogen and economic fundamentals
 Hydrogen is and will remain expensive to produce:
currently and until about 2030-2050, hydrogen will be
produced using fossil energies, and will cost some 2 to 5
times (per energy unit) the cost of the fossil fuels used to
produce it

in future, i.e. 2030 onwards, nuclear hydrogen will gradually
take over (produced either by electrolysis or by direct thermal
water decomposition)
 Hydrogen is and will remain expensive to transport and store

pipeline transport of hydrogen costs and will continue to cost
10 times more (per energy unit) than liquid hydrocarbons
(« technical progress » cannot change the basic laws of
thermodynamics)

the cost of storing hydrogen (pressurized, cryogenic,
adsorbed or chemically combined) may come down, but it will
remain much more expensive than storing liquid
hydrocarbons (a 100 times factor … even in 2050)

27/28
HYDROGEN AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:
SOME PARADOXES - 
Hydrogen and its uses
 As heat energy (industrial boilers, steam, electricity, space
heating, air-conditioning, etc.)

hydrogen is a less efficient vector than electricity. Both
electricity and natural gas involve equivalent logistics costs,
whether for huge quantities or for final networks, while
hydrogen is and will remain 2 to 3 times more expensive than
natural gas to transport and distribute (basic physics)
 As transport fuel (road transport, aviation, maritime shipping)

the advantage of using hydrogen is its absence of urban
pollution (whether used in internal combustion engines,
turbines or fuel cells). But the high cost of logistics and onboard storage (cars, aircraft, ships) means that hydrogen is
handicapped by its low volumic energy content
 The most efficient way to use hydrogen as a transport fuel
would probably be to “carbonize” it, thus producing synthetic
hydrocarbons
28/28