Transcript 2009 PowerPoint Template Presentation Title Style 1

Creating a
Low-Carbon Future
EPRI’s 2009 PrismMERGE Study
Revis James
Director
Energy Technology Assessment Center
2010 AABE Conference
May 20, 2010
2009 Prism – U.S. Electricity Sector
U.S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions
(million metric tons)
3500
3000
EIA 2009 baseline
Efficiency
2500
Renewables
2000
Nuclear
Fossil
Efficiency
CCS
1500
41% below 2005
PEV
ElectroTechnologies
58% below 2005
1000
500
0
1990
1995
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
The CO2 Challenge
8
Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Reduction Target
(with no international offsets)
7
Historical
Emissions
Billion tons CO2
6
2005 = 5982 mmT CO2
5
Remainder
of U.S.
Economy
4
3
2030 = 42% below 2005
(3470 mmT CO2)
1017 mmT CO2
2
1
U.S. Electric
Sector
0
1990
2000
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
83% Reduction in CO2
emissions below 2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
MERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix
Limited
Portfolio
6
Full Portfolio
6
Demand
Reduction
Demand
Reduction
5
Trillion kWh per year
7
5
Biomass
4
Wind
Solar
4
Hydro
Wind
Nuclear
Biomass
3
3
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
2
2
Gas
Coal
1
Coal
0
2000
2010
New Coal
+ CCS
CCS
Retrofit
2020
2030
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2040
2050 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1
0
2050
Trillion kWh per year
7
Key Technology Insights from Economic Analyses
•Aggressive energy efficiency will be needed
under most scenarios.
•Substantial renewables generation (e.g.
>20%) will occur.
•Combined generation from nuclear and
coal will exceed 50% for several decades.
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost
Results
$220
Substantial increases in the cost of electricity
$200
$180
$/Mwh (2007$)
$160
Limited
Portfolio
$140
Limited
Portfolio
Full
Portfolio
160%
$120
Full
Portfolio
BAU U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost *
$100
$80
$60
50%
AverageWholesale
Wholesale Electricity
Cost
20072007
U.S.U.S.
Average
Electricity
Cost
$40
*
$20
$0
2020
Based on estimate of expected business as usual annual investment in generation expansion.
Source: “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010-2030”, The
Edison Foundation, 2008 (www.edisonfoundation.net) and U.S. DOE Energy Information
Administration 2008 Annual Energy Outlook.
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2030
2040
2050
MERGE De-carbonization Results
Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh)
Cost of Electricity
22
MERGE Projections 2020-2050
2050
2050
20
Limited
Limited
Portfolio
Portfolio
18
16
2040
2040
14
12
2020
2020
10
8
2007
6
2020
2020
Full
Portfolio
2030
2030
2030
2030
2040
2050
Full
Portfolio
4
2
0
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)
De-Carbonization
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0.10
0.00
Electrification under an 80% below policy
2.0
Full Portfolio
Electricity share of final energy
demand (indexed to 2000)
1.8
1.6
1.4
Limited Portfolio
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2000
2010
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2020
2030
2040
2050
Critical Conclusions
• With achievement of aggressive but technically feasible levels of
technology performance and deployment, annual U.S. electric
sector CO2 emissions could be reduced by 41% by 2030.
• An optimal technical and economic strategy is comprised of
aggressive end-use efficiency and a diverse generation technology
portfolio.
• All technologies are not yet ready - focused, sustained research,
development and demonstration over the next 20 years is
necessary.
• Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will
to a great extent shape the electricity future of 2050.
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
© 2010
Image
from Electric
NASA Power
VisibleResearch
Earth Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.