Transcript Slide 1

Threats and opportunities in milk
and dairy products trade
Ankara, 20th May 2014
Béranger GUYONNET, CNIEL, France
WORLD DAIRY PRODUCTION
2
World dairy production
(all categories included)
Geographic breakdown of world milk production in 2013 (million tonnes)
Europe 216
28%
EU-27 157
Russia 31
Ukraine 12
Belarus 7
N. America 100
13%
United States 91
Canada 8
Asia 292
38%
Central America 17
2%
Mexico 11
S. America 67
9%
Brazil 34
Argentina 11
Colombia 7
Africa 47
6%
India 138
China 40
Pakistan 39
Turkey 17
Sudan 8
Egypt 6
Kenya 5
Oceania 29
4%
World total: 767 million tonnes
FAO Food Outlook May 2014, IDF-DCANZ for NZ
New Zealand 20
Australia 9
Asia biggest contributor to milk output
increase
Evolution of dairy production (all categories included) 2007 to 2013
North & Central America + 8 Mt
Europe + 2 Mt
Asia + 54 Mt
Africa + 7 Mt
South America + 11 Mt
World average annual
growth rate
+ 2.1%
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook
Oceania + 3 Mt
World total: + 91 million tonnes
4
Mt: million tonnes
Growth dynamics in main dairy
producing countries (1/2)
USA
Million tonnes
Million tonnes
EU 25, EU 27(cow's milk deliveries)
145
100
+ 1,7% / year
+ 1,1% / year
140
90
80
80,3
82,5
86,2
84,2
85,9
87,5
90,9
89,0
91,6
70
135
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13 (e)
Turkey (cow’s milk production)
Million tonnes
22
132
133
05
06
07
22
+ 10,3% / year
14
135
134
08
09
10,0
10,9
11,3
11,3
11,6
11,9
05
06
07
08
09
10
13,8
142
136
10
11
12
13 (e)
20,5
20,1
+ 4,0% / year
18
+ 3,5% / year
10
141
New Zealand
Million tonnes
+ 6,0% / year
18
139
133
130
05

- 0,7%
16,0
16,0
6
14
14,6
15,2
15,9
15,6
05
06
07
08
17,0
17,1
09
10
18,9
10
11
12
13 (e)
CNIEL / ZMB, FAO Food Outlook
11
12
13 (e)
5
Growth dynamics in main dairy
producing countries (2/2)
Brazil
Million tonnes
I India
Millions tonnes
150
35
+ 5,0% / year
+ 4,0% / year
130
30
25
25,4
26,7
27,6
28,4
30,0
31,6
32,9
33,7
34,8
110
90
20
05
06
Million tonnes
07
08
09
10
11
12
+ 13% / year
06
108
112
07
08
09
34
- 5,6%
+ 0,6% / y.
122
10
127
11
12
141
13 (e)
Russia
Million tonnes
+ 3,2% / year
40
05
13 (e)
China (cow's milk production)
95
100
116
134
- 0,2% / year
+ 1,1% / year
- 1,7% / year
32
35
35,3
30
35,6
35,2
35,8
36,6
37,4
35,3
30
31,9
32,2
31,1
31,3
05
06
32,5
32,6
31,9
31,6
31,9
30,5
27,5
25
28
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13 (e)
07
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, national statistics
08
09
10
11
12
13 (e)
6
Growth dynamics in main dairy
producing countries – rolling 12 month basis
146
millions de tonnes
95
EU 28
144
91
140
89
138
87
14
2011
2012
2013
2014
millions de tonnes
85
24
Australia
12
20
8
18
6
16
4
14
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
2014
millions de tonnes
22
10
2011
USA
93
142
136
millions de tonnes
2014
New Zealand
2011
2012
2013
2014
NB : deliveries in Europe
CNIEL / USDA, ZMB, PZ, DCANZ,
Dairy Australia
7
In most areas, agricultural yields may
drop by 2050
Projected percentage in agricultural yields by 2050
(given current agricultural practices and crop varieties)
World Bank (World Development Report 2010)
8
Many dairy regions face water
scarcity issues
Low
Moderate
High
FAO – The State of the World's Land and Water Resources for food and agriculture, 2011
9
WORLD DAIRY TRADE
10
Most emerging countries present a
trade deficit for dairy products
Representation of dairy product surplus and deficit countries in 2011
Trade surplus (positive balance > 2% production)
Trade balanced
CNIEL
Trade deficit (negative balance < 2% production)
11
World Trade
World trade: key exporters, export share (%) (B)
New Zealand
28%
EU 27
26%
Global trade:
USA
12%
Australia
53 million tonnes
7%
Belarus
4%
Argentina
7% of global production
4%
Rest of world
19%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
(B) Based on milk equivalents.
IDF, FAO Food Outlook
12
Presence on the world market
Recent export tendencies among major suppliers of the world market
EU-28
United States
Exports
SMP
Cheese
2013
+25%
+22%
3 m 2014
+26%
+42%
Exports
SMP
WMP
Butter
Cheese
Whey
2013
-21%
-3%
+0%
+3%
+5%
2 m 2014
+49%
+22%
+21%
+0%
+7%
New Zealand
Exports
SMP
WMP
Butter
Cheese
Whey
Argentina
Exports
WMP
Cheese
2013
-10%
-6%
1 m 2014
-10%
-3%
2013
+0%
+2%
-3%
+2%
-10%
3 m 2014
-25%
+13%
+41%
-9%
-63%
Australia
Exports
SMP
WMP
Cheese
2013
-29%
-11%
+1%
3 m 2014
+34%
+19%
-9%
NB: Evolution of exports on a volume basis
CNIEL / USDA, Dairy Australia, Commission, ZMB, Ubifrance, national customs
13
Demand is sustained on main markets
Recent import tendencies on substantial markets
Russia
Imports*
Butter
Cheese
2013
+20%
+3%
3 m 2014
+29%
+3%
United States
Imports
Cheese
Caseins
2013
-4%
-4%
3 m 2014
-2%
-4%
Japan
Imports
Cheese
2013
+1%
3 m 2014
-10%
China
Imports
SMP
WMP
Whey
Brazil
Imports
WMP
Cheese
2013
-23%
+14%
3 m 2014
-58%
-30%
2013
+40%
+53%
+15%
3 m 2014
+100%
+72%
-3%
Algeria
Imports
SMP
WMP
2013
+6%
-25%
*Russian imports do not account for volumes originating from Belarus
NB: Evolution of imports based on volume
CNIEL / Ubifrance, national customs
14
WORLD DAIRY CONSUMPTION
15
Geographical variations of dairy
product consumption
Apparent dairy product consumption levels in 2013
Canada
243
(kg per capita)
Russia 243
EU
286
USA
275
Algeria
147
Mexico
116
China 41
Iran
107
Sudan
229
Brazil
178
India
109
Philippines 12
Indonesia 13
World average:
109 kg/capita
Australia 309
Less than 50 kg
100 to 200 kg
50 to 100 kg
More than 200 kg
Argentina 232
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, PRB
Japan 70
Geographical variations of dairy
product consumption
Apparent per capita consumption (kg – in milk equivalent)
2006
2012
%
World
101
108
+7
Asia
61
71
+16
Africa
42
48
+14
Latin America
129
151
+17
Russia + Ukraine + Belarus
253
255
+1
EU + North America + Australia
+ New Zealand
290
284
-2
CNIEL / IDF, FAO Food Outlook, PRB
Dairy consumption: fast growing
regions
Development per capita consumption in fast-growing countries per region
(2012 compared to 2005)
Brazil
Colombia
+26%
India
+13%
2012
China
+62%
Venezuela
South
America
2005
+ 27%
0
50
100 150 200 250
kg
IDF, FAO Food Outlook
Africa
Asia
South America
+24%
+39%
2012
+22%
30
2012
+26%
Egypt
Asia
0
+24%
Kenya
2005
+28%
Indonesia
+38%
Algeria
60
90
+16%
Africa
120 150
kg
2005
0
50
100 150 200 250
kg
Income and dairy consumption
in the BRIC
Dairy product consumption
per capita (kg)
GNP per capita (USD)
6000
40
Dairy product consumption
per capita (kg)
GNP per capita (USD)
1 500
80
India
China
30
60
1 000
4000
20
2000
40
500
10
0
0
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
12 000
0
11
0
71
Dairy product consumption
per capita (kg)
GNP per capita (USD)
20
76
81
86
12000
100
8000
96
01
06
11
Dairy product consumption
per capita (kg)
GNP per capita (USD)
150
91
200
Brazil
150
8 000
Russia
4 000
50
100
4000
50
0
0
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
11
0
0
71
76
81
86
91
NB : Human consumption of dairy products, butter excluded, in milk equivalent ; losses and dairy used as animal feed excluded.
CNIEL / FAOSTAT, FMI
96
01
06
11
Strong growth, especially in Asia
Middle class projections
Billion people
4.9 Billion
5
7%
4
3.2 Billion
7%
66%
3
Asia Pacific
1.8 Billion
Central & South America
54%
2
Africa & Middle East
Europe
8%
North America
28%
10%
8%
6%
36%
22%
14%
18%
10%
7%
1
0
2009
2020
Middle class : people living in households
with daily per capita incomes of between
USD10 and USD100 in Purchasing Power
Parities (PPP) terms.
2030
20
OECD
WORLD DAIRY PRICES
21
World market prices still at high levels
FOB price in Oceania US$ 1,000 / tonne up until April 2014
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
SMP
BUTTER
2
2
1
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1
2009
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
2010
2012
2013
2014
3
CHEDDAR CHEESE
WMP
2
1
2011
2
2009
CNIEL / USDA
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
22
What next?
USD per tonne
6 000
5 000
?
4 000
3 000
2 000
Butter
SMP
WMP
Cheddar cheese
1 000
23
SUMMARY
 Bad weather + High input prices had led to a low start
in 2013
 But global dairy production is now rapidly rebounding
 Dairy demand remains strong, esp. from emerging
markets
 Markets put under pressure and reached record levels
 Next?




Seasonal peak in Northern hemisphere
End of quotas in Europe
Weather & sanitary issues
...
Q&A
Thank you
for your attention