Transcript Document

POULTRY MARKETS IN A GLOBAL
PERSPECTIVE
Dr PIET SIMONS
Past President
World’s Poultry Science Association
(WPSA)
Ambassador Dutch Poultry Centre
Round Table Discussion
February 3, 2010
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Global poultry meat
Global egg production
Main poultry meat and egg producers
(various countries)
Poultry meat and egg consumption
Cost-price poultry meat and eggs in
various countries
Global poultry market
 Driving forces
 Barriers
World trade poultry products
New poultry products in the future
X Million tonnes
World poultry meat production 2007
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Poultry
Source: FAO
Chicken
Turkey
Duck
Goose and
guinea fowl
World poultry meat production
90
80
X Million MT
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Year
Source: FAO
2005
2006
2007
Poultry meat production in the
various continents over the years
30000000
25000000
1996
20000000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
15000000
2002
2003
2004
2005
10000000
2006
5000000
0
AFRICA
ASIA
EUROPE
LATIN AMERICA*
NORTHERN AMERICA
OCEANIA
Leading countries in poultry
meat production
1970
Country
2007
Production
Share
(000 tonnes
(%)
USA
4,645
30.8
USSR
1,071
China
Production
Share
(000 tonnes)
(%)
USA
19,481
22.4
7.1
China
16,034
18.5
971
6.4
EU 25
10,392
12.0
France
637
4.2
Brazil
8,908
10.3
World
15,101
100
World
86,800
100
Source: FAO
Country
Development of global meat production
(data in million ton, source FAO)
Year
Beef
and veal
Pig meat
Poultry
meat
1970
38
36
15
1975
44
41
19
1980
46
53
26
1985
49
60
31
1990
53
70
41
1995
54
80
55
2000
57
90
69
2007
65
115
87
Increase (%)
71
219
480
Source: FAPRI (forecast)
R
wa
n
a
da
ia
hi
n
In
d
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7)
pa
n
(2
Ja
s
a
ia
us
s
EU
R
au
rit
iu
M
ge
nt
in
Ar
il
SA
az
Br
U
kg/person/year
Chicken meat consumption 2008
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
World poultry production
Growth forecast
Year
1995
Poultry meat
(Million tonnes)
56
2000
74
2015
110
2030
140
Brazil: number 1 exporter in
broiler meat
Source: Nutreco/Gira
Advantages in Brazil
(opportunities India)
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Good climate: low cost housing
Low cost of labour
Inland feed ingredients (corn, soybeans)
Combined with:
 Integrated production (contract)
 Big companies with good management
 Modern equipment
 Innovative and market-driven
World table egg production
70
60
X Million tonnes
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
FAO Database
2004
2005
2006
2008 (exp)
Egg production in the various
continents over the years
40000000
35000000
30000000
1996
1997
25000000
1998
1999
2000
2001
20000000
2002
2003
2004
15000000
2005
2006
10000000
5000000
0
AFRICA
ASIA
EUROPE
LATIN AMERICA*
NORTHERN AMERICA
OCEANIA
The five leading countries in hen
egg production
1970
Country
2007
Production
Share
(000 tonnes)
(%)
USA
4,053
20.7
USSR
2,248
Japan
Production
Share
(000 tonnes)
(%)
China
25,846
41.3
11.5
USA
5,308
8.5
1,766
9.0
India
2,670
4.3
China
1,533
7.8
Japan
2,525
4.0
Germany
1,162
5.9
Russia
2,093
3.3
19,540
100.0
World
62,572
100.0
World
Source: FAO
Country
World egg consumption
10
9
8
kg/person/year
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
96
97
98
99
8.0 kg eggs ≈ 130 eggs
Source: FAO
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
DR
on
g
C
ad
e
ng
l
Ba
Source: International Egg Commission, annual review
o
sh
ia
In
d
il
Br
az
a
Li
by
L
N
a
ge
nt
in
Ar
SA
U
ia
pa
n
us
s
R
C
Ja
a
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
hi
n
numbers of eggs/person
Egg consumption 2006
in selected countries
Production cost Eggs in 2006, Farm
level (Ect/kg)
80
70
60
50
cent per kg
general
40
housing
38
labour
37
other
30
feed
hen
29
34
25
28
12
10
9
USA
BR
INDIA
20
10
16
15
6
10-
EU
PL
UKR
P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
Main trade flows in hen eggs
Main trade flow (> 100.000 ton):
Netherlands Germany
Malaysia  Singapore
Minor trade flows
Poland  Germany
USA  Hongkong
India  UAE
Source: ISPA
Global poultry market
Driving forces
Population growth and demographics
 Economic prosperity
 Relative cost/price advantage
 Health and nutrition
 Consumer friendly products
 Fast-food chains
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Driving livestock revolution
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China
India
Africa
1.3 billion
1.1 billion
1.0 billion
2009 (India):
Chicken meat consumption
2009 (Africa, estimated)
Egg consumption
2.4 kg/year
43 eggs/year
per cap
Global poultry market
Barriers
Trade barriers (high tariffs feedstuffs)
 Domestic monopolies
 Bilateral agreements
 Standards (sanitation, hygiene, disease,
environment, GMO, residues, animal
welfare, increase price feedstuffs,
money crisis, etc.).
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World poultry production
Future challenges
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Continued sophistication of the industry
(food safety, taste, nutritional value)
Shifting from “production” to “value-adding”
and marketing
Meeting consumer preferences/tastes
Competition for consumer expenditure for other
goods and services
Innovation should meet health, ethics and
environment (global warming, manure pollution)
Science-based development
Future (in practice)
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Poultry meat
 More further processed products
Eggs
 In medical science (purification proteins)
 To deliver antibodies to prevent disease
 Functional food (enriched eggs)
 Home replacement meals
Synopsis
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Poultry meat and egg production and
consumption are continuously increasing and
have a broad acceptability
Nutrition value of poultry products is high
Food security and safety must be assured
Free market and trade are important
Poultry diseases, environment, energy,
product quality and animal welfare need
attention
Thanks for your attention
[email protected]