Transcript Japan ppt - Brian Tempest

Exploring the Structural Changes
in the Global Pharmaceutical Marketplace
Dr. Brian W Tempest
www.briantempest.com
MAPE Fund Managers Conference
Mumbai, India
29 September 2010
Hale & Tempest
Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on
their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia
and India where he has lived for the last decade.
Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories since 1995 holding the position of Managing Director
and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until
2008. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip MNC and as a
result has a valuable insight into India. Brian has also been Regional Director, Far East for Glaxo
where he was responsible for businesses in Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan.
Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 39 years and led Healthcare businesses in
North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia and India. He has also led sessions
at Investor Meetings across Asia, Europe and USA. He is now an International Advisor to MAPE –
India, Religare -India and UNCTAD - Switzerland. In addition he is a member of the SCRIP Global
awards panel. Brian speaks at global conferences on the Challenge from India and China and more
information on these presentations can be found on his website www.briantempest.com.
Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemistry from Lancaster University and is a member of the Royal
Society of Medicine, the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a Chartered Chemist. He is now
Chairman of Hale & Tempest Co Ltd.
Hale & Tempest
Healthcare Pressures Forever (2050)
Hale & Tempest
Futuristic Pharma Vending Machines
-currently being test marketed in UK Hospitals & Supermarkets 2010
Hale & Tempest
The R&D Model is failing
Hale & Tempest
Approvals & Reimbursements
Source: Pharmatimes UK July-August 2010
Hale & Tempest
EU Surprise Anti Trust Raids 2008/9




1st - GSK, Astra Zeneca, Sanofi Aventis,
Pfizer, Wyeth, Teva in January 2008
2nd – Teva , Servier, Kirka in November 2008
3rd – Sanofi Aventis France, Novartis France,
Teva France in October 2009
4th – Lundbeck Italy, Teva UK in December
2009
Hale & Tempest
Many Drugs withdrawn this Decade
Source: Deutsche bank, FDA
Hale & Tempest
Generic Exposure
Hale & Tempest
Sales Force Job Cuts in Press
since 2009 in H1 2010
Hale & Tempest
82% of the world population accounts for
only 12% of the global pharma sales
Region
North America
Europe
Japan
Pharma Sales
$255 b
$158 b
$59 b
47%
30%
11%
Population
332
725
128
88%
Asia/Africa/Aus
Latam
$41 b
$20 b
8%
4%
18%
4711
558
12%
Worldwide
Sources:
1.
IMS Midas, March 2005
2.
Earth Trend Data Tables 2005
$533 b
100%
5%
11%
2%
73%
9%
82%
6454
100%
Hale & Tempest
Emerging World Share of Pharma Growth
source IMS
Hale & Tempest
Emerging World Share of Pharma Sales
Source EIU, OECD, WHO, IMS, Roland Berger
Hale & Tempest
Profitability in Branded Generic Markets
Hale & Tempest
Regional Operating Margins - GSK
Hale & Tempest
Big Pharma & the Emerging World
source IMS - BRIC, Mexico, Turkey, South Korea
Hale & Tempest
Emerging Markets & Big Pharma
Hale & Tempest
Big Pharma - New World Order is Coming
Hale & Tempest
Patent Expiries 2003-2013 (in 8 Markets)
Hale & Tempest
USA Generics Filings
Source: Deutsche bank July 2010
Hale & Tempest
USA - First to File Lawsuits
Source RBC Capital Markets January 15 2010
Hale & Tempest
USA - Litigation Success Rates
Source







RBC Capital Markets January 15 2010
Patent FTF Challenges on rise
Success litigation rate at 48% - or 76%
including deals with patent owner
3 courts hold 69% of cases with a 36%
success rate e.g. NJ
4 courts never ruled against generics e.g. NY
At risk launches on the rise – 6 in 2009
Teva has 12 of the 28 at risk launches – 2002/9
Settlements on the rise – 54 in 2009
Hale & Tempest
USA Challenge – Size of Product Basket
Source: Deutsche Bank
Hale & Tempest
EU Chain forms a China Generic Factory









UK Coop a GBP£10b UK company
Worlds largest consumer cooperative
running food stores, banks, insurance, funeral
homes, travel agents, farms and pharmacies
3rd rank pharmacy chain in UK with 800 stores
Owns UK pharmaceutical wholesaler Sants
Offers 113 products under “Prospect” brand
Tianjin Tasly Sants Chinese JV opens 2010/11
With Investment GBP£20m, 200 staff
Hale & Tempest
SAP went live Feb 2010
Generic Profit Margin Profile
in descending order source: Deutsche Bank July 2010
Hale & Tempest
Indian Generics have consistently
outperformed USA Generics
Hale & Tempest
Indian Deals Roaring Ahead
July 2010 Grant Thornton Deal Tracker
Hale & Tempest
Top 22 Generic Companies over $1b
Source: Company Reports Generics Bulletin 28 May 2010 (excludes Apotex & Actavis Private Companies)
Hale & Tempest
Next18 Generic Companies < $1b
Source: Company Reports Generics Bulletin 28 May 2010 (excludes Recalcine Private Company)
Hale & Tempest
The Tempest Crystal Ball
•Asia is becoming the Centre of Gravity for global business
•Big Pharma will develop Emerging World Strategies, Generics
Strategies, OTC Strategies, Vaccine Strategies, VC Strategies
•Big Pharma will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC, MO.
and to China for RM/Biology/Toxicology
•Big Pharma will develop dual IP as well as dual pricing
•In Commodity Generics risks and competition will rise further.
Branded Generics will continue to be very attractive
•Many Indian families are reviewing their family portfolios. M&A will
roar ahead
Hale & Tempest
•Oncology Monoclonals could be the next wave after HIV
Thank You
[email protected]
www.briantempest.com
Hale & Tempest