Transcript Slide 1

Anthony Bridges, Deputy Executive Officer, FCMAT
Andrew Prestage, Management Analyst, FCMAT
Ajit Mandal, Software Developer, Proxient Technologies
Fiscal Projections: A Good Idea?

District Fiscal Problems due to:
• Declining Enrollment
• Salary Compensation
• Health & Welfare Benefits
• Changes in State Economy
FCMAT recommendation:
Delay decisions regarding Collective Bargaining or
significant ongoing expenditures until after 1/15/08;
• The Governor will soon declare a fiscal
emergency;
• Mid-year cuts will be a reality;
• State of the State message delivered
1/8/08;
• The Preliminary State Budget will be
released on January 10th.
FCMAT recommendation:
Regarding multi-year forecasting, the focus has to be
on the current plus one additional year only.
• The state’s fiscal situation is too volatile and
unstable to project further.
• Until housing, energy, construction and
unemployment begin to move in a more
positive direction, the state’s revenue
position and cash will remain unstable
which will affect Proposition 98.
FCMAT recommendation:
In the creation of a multi-year forecast using BE, create
a projection using the 4.3% COLA (sourced from the
SSC Projection Dartboard), and another reflecting a
0% COLA.
• Produces “what if?” analysis of alternative
scenarios.
Historical Perspective:
• SACS Software
• Spreadsheets (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel)
• MYP by
BEv2 System Requirements:
 Browser: Internet Explorer
 Platform: PC-Based
¹
 Screen Resolution: 1,280 x 1,024
¹ This is a minimum resolution setting. Use of
higher resolution settings is acceptable.
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Projection List Screen
Creating a New Projection:
1. Projections are created by
uploading SACS data obtained:


from your financial system, or;
from the state’s Financial Reporting
(SACS) software. RL supplemental form
data is uploaded as well (if it has been
entered), thereby reducing data input.
Step 1:
To import a new data file, use
this radio button.
To use a previously imported
data file, use this radio
button.
Your list of available data files
will grow over time, and
older files will need to be
removed.
Use the
button to remove data
files that are no longer
of value.
Step 2:
Step 2a: Use these options to specify the data
to use as your “Base Year”. The checkbox
can be used to also upload “Historical”
data. Historical data adds perspective by
allowing visual comparison of Base Year
data with prior year Estimated Actuals.
Step 2b: Use this dropdown field to
specify the “Base Year”.
Step 3:
Select which fund to
project forward
using this
dropdown field.
Select how many years to
project forward (2, 3, 4
or 5)
Step 4:
Home Screen
The Button Bar provides
access to frequently
used screens.
The Navigation Tree
provides access to
frequently used screens.
Fully Integrated System…
ENR
ADA
Staff
Projection
Variables
Salary
Forecaster
Other Revs, Exp’s.
Salaries & Benefits
Ending Fund Balance
RL $
Home Screen
This toolbar offers:
Change the
forecasting
period or
projection
description.
Go Back
Add Object
Save
Export to Excel
Export to PDF
Graphs
Help
Small Font
Medium Font
Large Font
A Five Minute Process…
Steps:
Upload your SACS Data
Check your Projection Rules
Check your Enrollment & ADA
Review the Salary Forecaster
Check the RL Calculation
Balance the Restricted Resources
Print Reports
Projection Rules
Values for
these rules are
obtained from
the SSC
Projection
Dartboard.
Updates are
made each
time a new
Dartboard is
released.
How Rules Work
Consumer Price Index (CPI) rule settings:
Base Year
Object Description
2006-07
4100
Texts/Materials 100,000
Rule
Name
CPI
ProjYr1
2007-08
103,000
BE applies the
BE BE
looks
up
the
value
oftothe
looks
upincrease
the
value
of the
3%
Projection
RuleRule
thatthat
hashas
been
Projection
been
the
Base
Year
applied
for and
ProjYr2.
applied
for ProjYr1.
places the
result in the 1st
projected year.
ProjYr2
2008-09
105,575
BE applies the
2.5% increase to
ProjYr1 and
places the result
in the 2nd
projected year.
Enrollment & ADA
The Enr/ADA/Staffing
area is divided into 2
screens:
5 years of state-reported
CBEDS data is loaded
automatically. Enrollment is
projected based on the
Weighted Moving Cohort
Progression model.
Salary Forecaster
Revenue Limit Calculation
Reports
Sharing a Projection
The ability to “share” projections
Separates BEv2 as
an information
sharing, planning,
and collaboration
resource;
 Can be “R/O” or;
 Can be “R/W”.

Sharing a Projection
District Office
County Office
COE creates
projection(s)
forand
each
district
District
creates
projection(s)
when
using SACS
shares the
ready,
sharesdata
the and
projection(s)
with COE
projection(s)
district
personnel
forwith
review
and personnel
comment. for
review and comment.
End – Thank You