Transcript Slide 1
Anthony Bridges, Deputy Executive Officer, FCMAT Andrew Prestage, Management Analyst, FCMAT Ajit Mandal, Software Developer, Proxient Technologies Fiscal Projections: A Good Idea? District Fiscal Problems due to: • Declining Enrollment • Salary Compensation • Health & Welfare Benefits • Changes in State Economy FCMAT recommendation: Delay decisions regarding Collective Bargaining or significant ongoing expenditures until after 1/15/08; • The Governor will soon declare a fiscal emergency; • Mid-year cuts will be a reality; • State of the State message delivered 1/8/08; • The Preliminary State Budget will be released on January 10th. FCMAT recommendation: Regarding multi-year forecasting, the focus has to be on the current plus one additional year only. • The state’s fiscal situation is too volatile and unstable to project further. • Until housing, energy, construction and unemployment begin to move in a more positive direction, the state’s revenue position and cash will remain unstable which will affect Proposition 98. FCMAT recommendation: In the creation of a multi-year forecast using BE, create a projection using the 4.3% COLA (sourced from the SSC Projection Dartboard), and another reflecting a 0% COLA. • Produces “what if?” analysis of alternative scenarios. Historical Perspective: • SACS Software • Spreadsheets (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel) • MYP by BEv2 System Requirements: Browser: Internet Explorer Platform: PC-Based ¹ Screen Resolution: 1,280 x 1,024 ¹ This is a minimum resolution setting. Use of higher resolution settings is acceptable. Logging In www.budgetexplorer.org Morning Session: Username Password Accounts Already Exist For: oesquivel cookie Salyards cdavis cookie Giggy mmendenhall cookie Harte pquinn cookie Schimelpfening mflores cookie Favereaux kgainey cookie awentland cookie khoward cookie Logging In www.budgetexplorer.org Afternoon Session: Username Password Accounts Already Exist For: kgragg cookie Hawkins kwatson cookie Ero Dbentley cookie Riedmiller Bhinton cookie Robinson eisaacs cookie Bingham Thomas Projection List Screen Creating a New Projection: 1. Projections are created by uploading SACS data obtained: from your financial system, or; from the state’s Financial Reporting (SACS) software. RL supplemental form data is uploaded as well (if it has been entered), thereby reducing data input. Step 1: To import a new data file, use this radio button. To use a previously imported data file, use this radio button. Your list of available data files will grow over time, and older files will need to be removed. Use the button to remove data files that are no longer of value. Step 2: Step 2a: Use these options to specify the data to use as your “Base Year”. The checkbox can be used to also upload “Historical” data. Historical data adds perspective by allowing visual comparison of Base Year data with prior year Estimated Actuals. Step 2b: Use this dropdown field to specify the “Base Year”. Step 3: Select which fund to project forward using this dropdown field. Select how many years to project forward (2, 3, 4 or 5) Step 4: Home Screen The Button Bar provides access to frequently used screens. The Navigation Tree provides access to frequently used screens. Fully Integrated System… ENR ADA Staff Projection Variables Salary Forecaster Other Revs, Exp’s. Salaries & Benefits Ending Fund Balance RL $ Home Screen This toolbar offers: Change the forecasting period or projection description. Go Back Add Object Save Export to Excel Export to PDF Graphs Help Small Font Medium Font Large Font A Five Minute Process… Steps: Upload your SACS Data Check your Projection Rules Check your Enrollment & ADA Review the Salary Forecaster Check the RL Calculation Balance the Restricted Resources Print Reports Projection Rules Values for these rules are obtained from the SSC Projection Dartboard. Updates are made each time a new Dartboard is released. How Rules Work Consumer Price Index (CPI) rule settings: Base Year Object Description 2006-07 4100 Texts/Materials 100,000 Rule Name CPI ProjYr1 2007-08 103,000 BE applies the BE BE looks up the value oftothe looks upincrease the value of the 3% Projection RuleRule thatthat hashas been Projection been the Base Year applied for and ProjYr2. applied for ProjYr1. places the result in the 1st projected year. ProjYr2 2008-09 105,575 BE applies the 2.5% increase to ProjYr1 and places the result in the 2nd projected year. Enrollment & ADA The Enr/ADA/Staffing area is divided into 2 screens: 5 years of state-reported CBEDS data is loaded automatically. Enrollment is projected based on the Weighted Moving Cohort Progression model. Salary Forecaster Revenue Limit Calculation Reports Sharing a Projection The ability to “share” projections Separates BEv2 as an information sharing, planning, and collaboration resource; Can be “R/O” or; Can be “R/W”. Sharing a Projection District Office County Office COE creates projection(s) forand each district District creates projection(s) when using SACS shares the ready, sharesdata the and projection(s) with COE projection(s) district personnel forwith review and personnel comment. for review and comment. End – Thank You