Transcript Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought: a

Counting the costs of the
2005 Amazon drought:
a preliminary assessment
Earth System Science, 2010
Edinburgh
Mandar Trivedi1, Anderson, L2; Queiroz, J3;
Aragao, L4; Meir, P5; Marengo, J6; Young, C3;
Mitchell, A1
1Global
Canopy Programme, 2University of Oxford,
3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Exeter
University, 5University of Edinburgh, 6CPTECInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra
Counting the costs of the
2005 Amazon drought:
a preliminary assessment
Earth System Science, 2010
Edinburgh
Mandar Trivedi1, Anderson, L2; Queiroz, J3;
Aragao, L4; Meir, P5; Marengo, J6; Young, C3;
Mitchell, A1
1Global
Canopy Programme, 2University of Oxford,
3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Exeter
University, 5University of Edinburgh, 6CPTECInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra
Outline of talk
• Background of project
• Context of 2005 drought
• Impacts on socio-ecological system
• REDD+: opportunity for mitigation-adaptation
Background
• Valuing Rainforests as Eco-utilities
• Capacity-building: Ecosystem Services for Poverty
Alleviation (ESPA)
• PI: Patrick Meir, U. Edinburgh
• Future risks: Deforestation and climate change
• Current vulnerability: Dry season impacts important
to socio-ecological system
• Mitigation-adaptation: REDD+
Drought impacts in general
• 1997-98 El Niño: global impacts
• Amazonian drought resistance/resilience
– Roots access deep water (Nepstad et al. 2007; Meir et al.
2009)
– ‘Green-up’ (Saleska et al. 2007)
– High tree mortality in 2005 (Phillips et al. 2009)
• “One-two-punch”:
– 2002-03 El Niño
– 2005 Atlantic warming with dry season rainfall reduction
Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)
2005 Amazon drought
• El Niño: eastern
Amazonia
• 2005: southwestern
Amazonia
• El Niño:
– Pacific influence
– typically wet season
• 2005:
– Atlantic influence
– dry season
Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)
Impacts on aspects of the
socio-ecological system
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•
•
•
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Fire and forest function
Transport: flights
Health: waterborne diseases, pulmonary disease
Agriculture
Fisheries
Fires
• More than twice as frequent as the average
over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008)
• Fire leakage:
– Human ignition sources (pasture clearance)
– Close to forest edges
– Dry forest more likely to burn
Fires
• More than twice as frequent as the average
over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008)
• Fire leakage:
– Human ignition sources (pasture clearance)
– Close to forest edges
– Dry forest more likely to burn
Acre
Acre State
Aerosol Optical
Depth (AOD)
Transport (flights)
• Smoke from fires affected visibility
Flights
Transport (river)
Photo: Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra
Carbon
• Tree mortality in plots, Acre
(Phillips et al., 2009)
• Forest & pasture burnt area
(Shimabukuro et al., 2009)
• Multiplied by biomass loss
(Kaufman et al., 1998)
• Converted to C loss
• Dead trees & burnt standing forest
in Acre:
• 2.4 TgC
Acre State
Health
• Hospital admissions:
– Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS (SIH/SUS)
• Waterborne diseases:
– typhoid fever, cholera and diarrhoea
• Pulmonary diseases:
– asthma, bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
(COPD) and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI)
Waterborne disease
Costs of hospital treatment, Acre
Pulmonary disease
Costs of hospital treatment, Acre State
Agriculture
• Annual censuses of permanent and temporary crops
• Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
Agriculture
Extractive fisheries
© AP
Extractive fisheries
• Major livelihood assets of ribeirinho
• Major source of protein
• Data from IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of Environment
and Renewable Natural Resources
• Losses in four states: BRL$ 13.3 m
• Aquaculture unaffected
Extractive fisheries
Extractive Continental Fishery - Rondônia
16.500.000,00
Value (R$ of 2007)
14.000.000,00
11.500.000,00
Rondônia
media
9.000.000,00
6.500.000,00
4.000.000,00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Extractive fisheries
Extractive Continental Fishery - Acre
8.000.000,00
Value (R$ of 2007)
7.600.000,00
7.200.000,00
Acre
6.800.000,00
media
6.400.000,00
6.000.000,00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Extractive fisheries
Extractive Continental Fishery - Mato Grosso
22.000.000,00
Value (R$ of 2007)
20.600.000,00
19.200.000,00
Mato Grosso
media
17.800.000,00
16.400.000,00
15.000.000,00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Summary
• Large costs associated with drought:
–
–
–
–
–
Crops, especially manioc (staple crop)
Fires/forest function (large carbon emissions)
Extractive fisheries but not aquaculture
Health
Transport (flights)
Summary
• Impact on poor communities hard to quantify
• Lack of data:
–
–
–
–
–
–
non-marketed goods (crops & fish)
self-treated diseases
river transport - underpins economy
school closures
livestock losses
hydropower
REDD+
• Incentives to change
behaviour & conserve
forests
• Community-based
monitoring
• Maintain local knowledge:
– ecosystem services
– weather
– wellbeing
• Mitigation-Adaptation
opportunity
Baka people, Cameroon. Source: Helveta
Thank you
Funded by Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme
© L. Anderson