Transcript Slide 1

Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K12 Education in South Carolina
James H. Johnson, Jr.
Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
Kenan-Flagler Business School
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
February 2014
OVERVIEW
• Demographic Trends
• Challenges & Opportunities
• Discussion
what
CENSUS 2010
will REVEAL
February 2014
6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS
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The South Rises – Again
The Browning of America
Marrying Out is “In”
The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit
The End of Men?
Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well…
and Grandpa’s Too!
The South
Continues To Rise
...Again!
SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET
POPULATION GROWTH,
SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010
Years
1910-1930
U.S. Absolute
Population
Change
30,974,129
1930-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
28,123,138
51,886,128
45,497,947
1990-2010
60,035,665
South’s
Absolute
Population
Change
8,468,303
9,339,455
15,598,279
22,650,563
29,104,814
South’s Share
of Change
27%
33%
30%
50%
49%
U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY
REGION, 2000-2010
2010
Population
Absolute
Population
Change,
2000-2010
Percent
Population
Change,
2000-2010
309,050,816
26,884,972
9.5%
Northeast
55,417,311
1,753,978
3.3%
Midwest
66,972,887
2,480,998
3.0%
South
114,555,744
14,318,924
14.3%
West
72,256,183
8,774,852
13.8%
4,625,364
613,352
15.3%
Region
U.S.
South Carolina
SHARES OF NET POPULATION
GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010
Absolute Population
Change
Percent of Total
UNITED STATES
26,884,972
100.0
NORTHEAST
1,753,978
6.0
MIDWEST
2,480,998
9.0
SOUTH
14,318,924
53.0
WEST
8,774,852
32.0
Region
NET MIGRATION TRENDS,
2000-2008
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Total
-1,032
-2,008
+2,287
+46
Black
-346
-71
+376
+41
Hispanic
-292
-109
+520
-117
Elderly
-115
+42
+97
-27
Foreign born
-147
-3
+145
+3
= Net Import
= Net Export
STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET
GROWTH, 2000-2010
Region/State
Absolute Change
State’s Share
14,318,924
100.0%
Texas
4,293,741
30.0%
Florida
2,818,932
19.7%
Georgia
1,501,200
10.5%
North Carolina
1,486,170
10.4%
Other Southern States
4,218,881
29.4%
The South
GROSS AND NET MIGRATION
FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010
The Region
Domestic
Years
In
Out
Foreign
Net
In
Out
Net
2004-2007 4,125,096 3,470,431 654,665
268,619 132,382 136,237
2007-2010 3,874,414 3,477,899 396,525
232,501 132,201 100,300
Florida
Domestic
Years
In
Out
Foreign
Net
In
Out
Net
2004-2007
812,053
630,051 182,002
41,745
24,108
17,637
2007-2010
654,931
668,087
33,095
32,094
1,001
-13,156
U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY
REGION, 2010-2013
2013
Population
Absolute
Population
Change,
2010-2013
Percent
Population
Change,
2010-2013
316,128,839
6,802,554
2.2%
Northeast
55,943,073
566,751
1.0%
Midwest
67,547,890
571,569
0.9%
South
118,383,453
3,525,554
3.1%
West
74,254,423
2,138,670
3.0%
4,774,839
149,475
3.2%
Region
U.S.
South Carolina
SHARES OF NET POPULATION
GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2013
Absolute Population
Change
Percent of Total
6,802,554
100.0
NORTHEAST
566,751
8.3
MIDWEST
571,569
8.4
SOUTH
3,525,554
51.8
WEST
2,138,670
31.4
Region
UNITED STATES
STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S
NET GROWTH, 2010-2013
Region/State
Absolute Change
State’s Share
The South
3,525,554
100.0%
Texas
1,203,015
34.1%
Florida
736,806
20.9%
Georgia
278,919
7.9%
North Carolina
258,527
7.3%
Virginia
235,988
6.7%
Other Southern States
812,299
23.1%
Continued Uneven Population
Growth in South Carolina, 2010-2012
Dying Counties
Growth Magnets
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McCormick
Union
Edgefield
Colleton
Fairfield
Williamsburg
Bamberg
Calhoun
Clarendon
Marlboro
Abbeville
Marion
Spartanburg
Dorchester
Beaufort
Richland
Lexington
York
Berkeley
Greenville
Charleston
Horry
THE “BROWNING”
OF AMERICA
Number of Immigrants (in millions)
U.S. Immigrant Population,
1900-2011
45
40.4
40
35.2
35
31.1
30
25
19.8
20
15
10
13.5 13.9 14.2
10.3
11.6
14.1
10.3 9.7 9.6
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2011
U.S. Foreign Born Population by
Race/Ethnicity, 2011
Race/Ethnicity
Foreign Population
Share of Total (%)
Total
Hispanic
White Alone, not
Hispanic
Black Alone, not
Hispanic
Asian Alone, not
Hispanic
Other Alone, not
Hispanic
40,381,574
18,788,300
7,608,236
100.0
46.5
18.8
3,130,348
7.8
9,988,159
24.7
866,531
2.1
19
U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY
RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010
Absolute Change
2000 – 2010
Percentage
Change
2000 - 2010
Race
2010 Population
Total
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Non-Hispanic
258,267,944
12,151,856
4.9%
White
196,817,552
2,264,778
1.2%
Black
37,685,848
3,738,011
11.0%
AI/AN
2,247,098
178,215
8.6%
Asian
14,465,124
4,341,955
42.9%
NH/PI
481,576
128,067
36.2%
5,966,481
1,364,335
29.6%
50,477,594
15,171,776
43.0%
2 or More Races
Hispanic
NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF
POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010
Area
Absolute
Population
Change
Non-White
Share
Hispanic
Share
US
27,323,632
91.7
55.5
South
14,318,924
79.6
46.4
Texas
4,293,741
89.2
65.0
Florida
2,818,932
84.9
54.7
Georgia
1,501,206
81.0
27.9
North Carolina
1,486,170
61.2
28.3
South Carolina
613,352
49.4
22.9
Marrying Out
October 2012
is “In”
22
INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008
% Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity
October 2012
23
INTERMARRIAGE TYPES
Newly Married Couples in 2008
October 2012
24
MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY
RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009
Race
Total
Male
Female
United States
36.8
35.4
38.2
White Alone
38.3
37.0
39.6
White, Non-Hispanic
41.2
39.9
42.6
Black Alone
31.3
29.4
33.3
AI/AN Alone
29.5
29.0
30.2
Asian Alone
33.6
32.6
34.6
NH/PI Alone
29.9
29.5
30.3
Two or More Races
19.7
18.9
20.5
Hispanic
27.4
27.4
27.5
June 2013
25
Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in
South Carolina, 2007-2011
Demographic Group
All Females
White, Not Hispanic
Black
American Indian & Alaskan Native
Asian
Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander
Some other race
Two or more races
Hispanic
Native Born
Foreign Born
Source: www.census.gov
*Women 15 to 50 with births in past
12 months.
Median Age
38.8
42.2
34.9
37.4
34.6
26.5
24.6
16.3
24.6
39.0
37.2
Fertility/1000
women*
56
51
61
93
49
161
98
59
94
55
80
RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S.
BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY
Race/Ethnicity
1990
2008
2011
White
66%
50%
49.6%
Blacks
17%
16%
15.0%
Hispanics
15%
26%
26.0%
2%
8%
9.4%
Other
Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).
THE SILVER TSUNAMI
U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY
AGE, 2000-2009
Age
<25
2009
Absolute
Change
2000 - 2009
Percentage
Change
2000 - 2009
104,960,250
5,258,492
5.3
25-44
84,096,278
-1,898,345
-2.2
45-64
79,379,439
16,977,567
27.2
65+
39,570,590
4,496,886
12.8
307,006,550
24,834,593
8.8
TOTAL
June 2013
29
U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62,
AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)
Average Number/Day
Average Number/Minute
October 2012
Age
50
Age
55
Age
62
Age
65
12,344
11,541
9,221
8,032
8.6
8.0
6.4
5.6
30
TOTAL AND ELDERLY POPULATION
CHANGE, 2000-2010
Total
Population
Percent
Change
Absolute
Change
Elderly
Population
Percent
Change
Absolute
Change
U.S.
9.5
26,884.972
U.S.
10.7
3,787,660
South
14.3
14,318,924
South
19.7
2,455,718
The
Carolinas
17.4
2,099,702
The
Carolinas
28.2
411,572
North
Carolina
18.5
1,486,170
North
Carolina
27.3
265,031
South
Carolina
15.3
613,532
South
Carolina
30.2
146,541
ELDERLY SHARE OF NET
POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2010
Area
Total Population
Change
Elderly
Population
Change
Elderly Share of
Net Change
United States
26,884,972
3,737,660
13.9%
South Region
14,318,924
2,455,718
17.2%
The Carolinas
2,099,702
411,572
19.6%
North Carolina
1,486,170
265,031
17.8%
South Carolina
613,532
146,541
23.9%
Absolute and Percent Population
Change by Age, 2000-2010
Age
United States
All Ages
27,323,632
(9.7%)
5,416,292
(5.4%)
613,352
(15.3% )
139,427
(9.8%)
-2,905,697
(-3.4%)
19,536,809
(31.5%)
7,393
(0.6%)
319,991
(34.7%)
5,276,231
(15.1%)
146,541
(30.2%)
<25
25-44
45-64
65+
South Carolina
DISTRIBUTION OF WIDOWED
ELDERLY WOMEN BY COUNTY, THE
CAROLINAS, 2010
Alleghany
Northampton GatesPasquotank
Ashe
Camden
Surry Stokes
CaswellPerson VanceWarren
Hertford
Granville
Currituck
Rockingham
Halifax
Watauga Wilkes
ChowanPerquimans
Yadkin Forsyth
Avery
Franklin
Guilford
Bertie
Orange
Mitchell
NashEdgecombe
CaldwellAlexander Davie
Durham
Alamance
Washington
MadisonYancey
Martin
Iredell
Davidson
Tyrrell Dare
Wake
McDowellBurke
Randolph
Wilson
Chatham
Catawba
Rowan
Pitt Beaufort
HaywoodBuncombe
Johnston
Greene
Swain
Hyde
LincolnCabarrus Montgomery Lee
Harnett
Wayne
HendersonRutherfordCleveland
Graham
Stanly
Jackson
Moore
Gaston
Lenoir Craven
Polk
Mecklenburg
Pamlico
Cherokee Macon Transylvania
Cumberland
Cherokee
Jones
Hoke
Union
Richmond
Clay
SampsonDuplin
Anson
York
Spartanburg
PickensGreenville
Scotland
Carteret
Lancaster
Oconee
Onslow
Union Chester
Chesterfield
Robeson Bladen
Pender
Anderson Laurens
Marlboro
Fairfield Kershaw Darlington Dillon
Newberry
Columbus New Hanover
Abbeville
Lee
Greenwood
Marion
Brunswick
Florence
Richland
Saluda
Sumter
Horry
McCormick
Lexington
Edgefield
CalhounClarendonWilliamsburg
Aiken
Legend
Georgetown
Orangeburg
Barnwell
Berkeley
51% or more
Bamberg
Dorchester
41% - 50%
Allendale
HamptonColleton
36% - 40%
Charleston
JasperBeaufort
4
0
37.5
75
Miles
150
25%-35%
DISTRIBUTION OF ELDERLY
WOMEN LIVING ALONE IN THE
CAROLINAS, 2010
Alleghany
Northampton GatesPasquotank
Ashe
Camden
Surry Stokes
CaswellPerson VanceWarren
Hertford
Granville
Currituck
Rockingham
Halifax
Watauga Wilkes
ChowanPerquimans
Yadkin Forsyth
Avery
Franklin
Guilford
Bertie
Orange
Mitchell
NashEdgecombe
CaldwellAlexander Davie
Durham
Alamance
Washington
MadisonYancey
Martin
Iredell
Davidson
Tyrrell Dare
Wake
McDowellBurke
RandolphChatham
Wilson
Catawba
Rowan
Pitt Beaufort
HaywoodBuncombe
Johnston
Greene
Swain
Hyde
LincolnCabarrus Montgomery Lee
Harnett
Wayne
HendersonRutherfordCleveland
Graham
Stanly
Jackson
Gaston
Moore
Lenoir Craven
Polk
Mecklenburg
Macon Transylvania
Pamlico
Cherokee
Cumberland
Cherokee
Jones
Hoke
Union
Richmond
Clay
SampsonDuplin
Anson
York
Spartanburg
PickensGreenville
Scotland
Carteret
Lancaster
Oconee
Onslow
Union Chester
Chesterfield
Robeson Bladen
Pender
Anderson Laurens
Marlboro
Fairfield Kershaw Darlington Dillon
Newberry
Columbus New Hanover
Abbeville
Lee
Greenwood
Marion
Brunswick
Florence
Richland
Saluda
Sumter
Horry
McCormick
Lexington
Edgefield
CalhounClarendonWilliamsburg
Aiken
Legend
Georgetown
Orangeburg
Barnwell
Berkeley
26 or more
Bamberg
Dorchester
20% - 25%
Allendale
HamptonColleton
15% - 19%
Charleston
JasperBeaufort
4
0
37.5
75
Miles
150
Less than 15%
DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE
AMERICAN SOUTH
Source: Census 2010
Dependency Ratios for Selected South
Carolina Counties
[State Ratio = 73.4]
County
Total Dependency Ratio
Allendale
172.8
Bamberg
119.5
Clarendon
113.1
Georgetown
101.2
Hampton
113.7
Lee
154.0
McCormick
161.8
Marlboro
138.6
Williamsburg
123.5
COOLING WATERS FROM
GRANDMA’S WELL
And Grandpa’s Too!
Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent
Households, 2001-2010
Household Type
Absolute Number Absolute Change
2010
2001-2010
All
74,718
2,712
3.8
No Grandparents 67,209
917
1.4
Both
Grandparents
2,610
771
41.9
Grandmother
Only
1,922
164
9.3
318
71
28.7
Grandfather Only
October 2012
Percent Change
2001-2010
39
Children Living in Non-Grandparent and
Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence
of Parents, 2010
Household
Type
All Children
Living with
(in thousands) Both
Parents
Living with
Mother
Only
Living with
Father
Only
Living with
Neither
parent
All
74,718
69.3%
23.1%
3.4%
4.0%
No
Grandparents
67,209
73.4%
21.2%
3.3%
2.1%
Both
Grandparents
2,610
18.1%
40.6%
5.2%
36.1%
Grandmother
Only
1,922
13.8%
48.4%
4.5%
33.2%
Grandfather
Only
318
26.4%
45.9%
4.4%
23.6%
October 2012
40
The End of Men?
FEMALE WORKFORCE
REPRESENTATION
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
% Female
2000
2010
JOBS LOST/GAINED BY
GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) –
2009 (Q3) RECESSION
Industry
Construction
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Government
Total
Women
-106,000
-106,000
+451,800
+176,000
-1,700,000
Men
-1,300,000
-1,900,000
+118,100
+12,000
-4,700,000
THE PLIGHT OF MEN
• Today, three times as many men of working age do not
work at all compared to 1969.
• Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising
non-employment due largely to skills mismatches,
disabilities & incarceration.
• The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability
insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009
(4.8%).
• Since 1969 median wage of the American male has
declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation.
• After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates
have barely changed over the past 35 years.
COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010
DEGREE
MALE
FEMALE
DIFFERENCE
Associate’s
293,000
486,000
193,000
Bachelor’s
702,000
946,000
244,000
Master’s
257,000
391,000
134,000
Professional
46,800
46,400
-400
Doctor’s
31,500
32,900
1,400
1,330,300
1,902,300
572,000
TOTAL
ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR
COLLEGES, 2009
Area
U.S.
Southeast
Region
North
Carolina
NC- 2 Yr
Colleges
Total
Enrollment
20,966,826
4,731,356
Full Time
Enrollment
(%)
63
65
Male
Enrollment
(%)
43
41
Black
Enrollment
(%)
13
23
574,135
64
41
24
253,383
43
40
25
UNC SYSTEM STUDENT
ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND
TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010
Type of
Institution
UNC System
Majority
Serving
Minority
Serving
HBUs
Total
Enrollment
175,281
Male
Enrollment
76,953
Percent
Male
44
139,250
63,403
46
36,031
13,550
38
29,865
11,191
37
Average EOG Scores
Math 8 EOG Scores
90.00
83.88
84.44
80.42
Percentage Passed
80.00
81.20
81.87
75.37
70.00
68.22
Boys
72.17
70.15
65.25
72.22
State Avg.
60.00
61.30
50.00
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Girls
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
Average EOG Scores
Reading 8 EOG Scores
90.00
82.44
80.64
Percentage Passed
80.00
66.61
70.00
60.00
54.17
Boys
56.83
60.08
54.92
50.00
40.00
30.00
Girls
State Avg.
42.92
49.97
49.63
48.38
38.05
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
Average EOC Scores
Algebra 1 EOC Scores
90.00
77.78
Percentage Passed
80.00
70.00
69.04
76.65
67.73
69.50
60.00
69.33
Girls
62.92
57.98
58.92
57.10
50.00
48.73
50.67
40.00
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Boys
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
State Avg.
EOC Composite Scores
EOC Composite Pass Rates
85.0
80.8
% of Students Passing
80.0
75.0
70.0
68.4
71.5
71.6
65.0
67.4
60.0
55.0
50.0
53.85
50.8
79.7
73.95
67.8
Females
55.7
State
52.6
45.0
40.0
2007/2008
Males
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
Male-Female Presence Disparity
Total Number of EOC Test Takers
6400
6200
Number of Test Takers
6000
5800
5600
5400
males
5200
females
5000
4800
4600
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs
(Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)
High School Graduation Rates
Graduation Rates (LEAs Grouped)
90
77.37
Percent Graduated
80
78.42
75.17
81.30
70
50
60.65
69.42
63.75
60
59.58
Boys
40
Girls
30
20
10
0
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Avg. graduation rates of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
The Minority Male
Challenge
Third Grade EOG Reading Test Pass
Rates For Males by Race/Ethnicity
80%
70%
65%
EOG Pass Rate
68%
59%
60%
55%
50%
52%
45%
55%
50%
69%
57%
52%
White Boys
46%
46%
38%
40%
30%
66%
Black Boys
48%
49%
American Indian
43%
33%
31%
20%
2008
2009
Latino Boys
2010
Year
2011
2012
Third Grade EOG Math Test Pass
Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity
100%
90%
90%
90%
90%
79%
80%
76%
77%
74%
75%
84%
80%
EOG Pass Rate
90%
80%
70%
67%
67%
60%
50%
77%
Black Boys
65%
65%
2009
2010
Year
67%
68%
Latino Boys
American Indian
54%
40%
2008
White Boys
2011
2012
Eighth Grade EOG Reading Test Pass
Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity
100%
90%
77%
EOG Pass Rate
80%
80%
60%
54%
49%
50%
54%
44%
55%
56%
52%
50%
48%
30%
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
Black Boys
Latino Boys
43%
32%
White Boys
56%
48%
35%
40%
20%
81%
66%
70%
30%
80%
2012
American Indian
Eighth Grade EOG Math Test Pass
Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity
100%
87%
90%
78%
EOG Pass Rate
80%
89%
77%
73%
70%
66%
89%
90%
79%
80%
78%
74%
56%
65%
68%
51%
54%
40%
2009
2010
Year
Latino Boys
American Indian
65%
50%
2008
White Boys
Black Boys
67%
60%
77%
2011
2012
DIVERSITY RULES
...but Challenges Abound
September 2012
59
September 2012
60
Percent of High School Graduates
Requiring Remedial Course Work
2010
26.8
19.2
54
1,725
2009
24
20.8
55.2
1,587
2008
23.8
20.2
55.9
1,534
55.2
1,261
2007
25.6
2006
19.2
28.7
0
10
23.3
20
30
None
40
One
1,047
48
50
60
70
Two or
or MoreHS
more GradsPercent of HS Grads
80
90
100
THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT
• Analytical Reasoning
• Entrepreneurial Acumen
• Contextual Intelligence
• Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity
• Agility and Flexibility
Implications for Workforce Planning
and Development
• Managing transition from the “graying”
to the “browning” of America.
• Competition for talent will be fierce –
and global.
• Successful recruitment and retention will
hinge on your ability to effectively
manage the full nexus of “diversity”
issues.
September 2012
63
MOVING FORWARD
• Higher Education must become more actively
engaged in K-12 Education.
• Improve Male Education Outcomes.
• Embrace immigrants.
• Develop effective strategies to address childhood
hunger
• Establish stronger ties with business to ensure that
students graduate with the requisite skills to
compete in an ever-changing global economy.
• Prepare students for the freelance economy.