Transcript ARENA National Forum

The role of Government in improving the competitiveness of
renewable energy technologies and increasing the supply of
renewable energy in Australia
Solar Power 2013
19 February 2013
www.arena.gov.au
Summary
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Assisting relatively mature solutions to bridge the commercialisation gap by
contributing to project financing
Supporting off-grid applications of renewable energy
Developing industry learning and capabilities through an ongoing pipeline of
projects for widespread deployment of renewable energy
Reducing barriers to renewable energy technology deployment by sharing
project information and learning, and increasing awareness and acceptance of
the technologies
Australian renewable energy landscape
Solar landscape
Policy drivers
ARENA strategy and investment plan
Investment highlights.
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1. The Australian Renewable Energy Landscape
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2.
Renewables
Australia’s
energy
Renewables in in
Australia’s
energy
mix mix
Australian Electricity Generation 2009-10
Source: ABARES, Australian Energy Statistics (2011)
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3.
Australia’s renewable energy mix
This diagram shows Australia’s current mix of renewable generation capacity including bagasse, landfill gas, solar, wood
waste, wind and hydro and the percentage of installed capacity for each between 2001-2012.
Source: CCA Discussion Paper Oct 2012
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4.
Location of renewable energy capacity
Source: BREE (2012) Energy in Australia 2012
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5.
Changing mix of Australia's energy demand
Australian Primary Energy Consumption By Sector: 2012/3 – 2034/5
(PJ)
Proportion of
total in 2012/3
8000
344
6000
Proportion of
growth
2012/3- 34/5
5%
2%
29%
50%
1256
21%
-2%
899
145
5%
2%
88%
6%
38%
-45%
333
2095
1760
4000
1268
310
2000
105
2293
1996
0
2012-13
Electricity
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
2034-35
Transport
Commercial and Residential
Sources: “Australian Energy Projections: December 2012”, BREE, 2012
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2. The Solar Landscape
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Australia’s Renewable Resources: a Track Record of
Innovation
Source: Professor Stuart Wenham, China: Threat or Opportunity? (2012)
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Compared to major solar markets, Australia is sunny
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Solar in Australia’s 2050 electricity mix
Source: BREE (2012d)
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10.
Levelised costs in 2012 and 2020 – Photovoltaic,
Concentrating Solar Power, Gas
Source: BREE, Australian Energy Technologies Assessment 2012
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11.
Levelised
costs
in 2030
LCOEs
forenergy
renewable
energy
technologies - 2012
This slide shows the forecasted Levelised Costs of Energies (LCOE)
across renewable and non-renewable energy technology in 2030.
Source: BREE, Australian Energy Technologies Assessment 2012
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12.
Progress across the full set of costs is required to
increase commercial viability and deployment
LCOE Drivers
Finance
Channel
Margins
Other
Hardware,
Civils, Install,
Land, O&M
Solar Device
PV LCOE now <$200MWHr
Local
costs
70-80% of
employment
in these
areas
Global
costs
Technology
IP key value
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13.
Solar innovation chain – key challenges
TECHNOLOGY PUSH
Research
Development
Demonstration
Pilot
Scale
Imagining
Incubating
MARKET PULL
Commercial
Scale
Demonstrating
IMPACT
Deployment
Supported
Commercial
Promoting
Competitive
Commercial
Sustaining
Proving it Works
Securing Capital
Project Finance & Revenue Certainty
Higher Efficiency
Lower Technology Risk
Proof of Cost
Supply Chain
Development
System Integration –
improving capacity
factors & Yields
Manufacturing Process
Improvement
O&M track record
Proving cash flows
Maximising NPV
Forecasting, storage, PPA terms
Lower Cost Materials &
Components
Thermal & Chemical Storage
Control Strategies – Demand
side management, resource
forecasting
Capturing PPA value in uncertain
markets – carbon, regulation,
ownership structures etc
Cost of ownership, permitting, social
acceptance, skills availability etc
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Unlocking the capital
Commercial viability
– Upfront costs vs. long-term revenues
– Highly sensitive to cost of finance
– Bankable PPAs at market value
$$$
Debt &
Equity
Technology Risk
Technology risk (CSP)
– Long-term nature of R&D
– Funding the cost of proving its “bankability”
Market
– Policy stability
– Variation between jurisdictions
– People and skills
Market
Commercial
Viability
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15.
3. Policy drivers
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16.
Australia’s targets - projected growth in emissions and
the abatement challenge
Source: Treasury modelling, 2011 (medium global action scenario)
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17.
Australian Government support for renewable
energy technology development
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The basics
ARENA - objectives
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4. ARENA’s Strategy and Investment Plan
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The basics
ARENA - objectives
$3.2 billion in funding
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Strong foundations
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Doing business
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General Funding Strategy
GENERAL PRINCIPLES
COMPLEMENTARITY
CONFIDENCE BUILDING
DIVERSITY
ALONG THE WHOLE
INNOVATION CHAIN
RESEARCH (basic and applied)
DEVELOPMENT
DEMONSTRATION
COMMERCIALISATION
INVESTMENT PLAN
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES
SUPPORTING INITIATIVES
COMPLEMENTARY INITIATIVES
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24.
Investment Plan
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES
are larger in scope and scale
and typically fund marketoriented, near commercial,
demand pull projects
• Regional Australia’s
Renewables
• Deploying utility scale
renewable energy
SUPPORTING INITIATIVES
more limited in scope and
address specific roadblocks
to the success of a strategic
initiative
• Removing roadblocks for
regional and remote renewable
energy
• Building Australia’s next
generation solar
COMPLEMENTARY INITIATIVES
provide ARENA with the
flexibility to do those things
necessary to fulfil all of its
functions
•Supporting High value
Australian Renewable Energy
knowledge (SHARE)
•Continuing programs such as
ERP and REVCF
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25.
Regional Australia’s Renewables
PROPOSED OUTCOMES
At least 50 MW of
renewable energy
capacity installed
by 2020
Industry
10 MW or more
renewable energy
systems by 2018
Community
Size
1MW or more
100kW – 1MW
Type of
Support
Grants - capital / or revenue
subsidy
Grants - capital subsidy
Location
of
projects
Off-grid or fringe-of-grid
Off-grid
Roadblocks
removed. Trained
operators of
renewables
Roadblocks
No size
Grants – project costs
Focus on - system issues,
demand management,
control systems, storage
optimisation etc
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26.
Demand for Off-Grid electricity is large in the
minerals & energy sector
WA Forecast Increased Minerals And Energy Electricity Demand By
Source
(GWh per annum, incremental above 2012 levels)
95% of new
energy
demand
expected to
be provided
off-grid
Sources: “WA State Growth Outlook 2013”, PwC 2012
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27.
There are successful Case Studies of
renewables in the mining industry
Sources:
Remote Miners Investing in Renewables to Power Operations”, Renewable Energy World 2012, accessed at:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/12/remote-miners-investing-in-renewables-to-power-operations, ARENA analysis
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5. Investment highlights
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$650 million in investments
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30.
CS Energy Kogan Creek Solar Boost Project
$A34.9m funding for $A104.9m project
• The project will be the world's largest
solar integration with a coal fired
power station.
• 44 MW solar thermal addition to the
existing 750MW Kogan Creek Power
Station in South West Queensland.
• AREVA Solar's CLFR technology.
• 30 hectare solar field.
• Operational in 2013.
www.arena.gov.au
31.
Solar Energy Management (SEM) system for
utilities
CSIRO, Ergon Energy, GWA Group
$A0.2m funding for $A0.6m project
Combines CSIRO’s thermally-driven
residential desiccant solar cooling
technology with a novel SEM system
and natural gas-powered back-up to
reduce peak electrical consumption from the grid with certainty
while providing continuous operation of air-conditioning.
The SEM technology will be tested in 3
residential buildings to verify its ability
to address grid stability issues and test
customer acceptance as “winx3” for the environment,
consumers and utilities.
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32.
Other Opportunities
Current funding opportunities
through ARENA:
•$126 million Emerging
Renewables program
•$200 million Southern Cross
Renewable Energy Fund
Coming up:
•PhD Scholarships and
Postdoctoral Fellowships
•Regional Australia’s Renewables
program
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