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THE SHARE IMPERATIVE
!
Richard Suzman
Director, Behavioral and Social Research
National Institute on Aging, NIH, HHS
DELFT
April 2008
20
United Nations Projected Percentages
of Global Population
Actual
Projected
% of Global Population
15
Age 65+
10
Age <5
5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Source: World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex 2 (low-variant projection). UN Population Division.
1
Aging Reshaping our World
1.
2.
Speed of population aging –Incl. Third
World
Simultaneous population aging & pop.
decline
3.
Prospects for human longevity
4.
Changing 65+ burden of disease
5.
Prospects of huge increases in dementia
6.
7.
8.
Technology pressure on health system
costs
Impact of evolving family structures 65+
support
Worker-Dependant ratio and old-age
Communiqué: Denver G-8 Summit
• We discussed how our nations can promote active aging of our
older citizens with due regard to their individual choices and
circumstances, including removing disincentives to labor force
participation and lowering barriers to flexible and part- time
employment that exist in some countries.
• In addition, we discussed the transition from work to
retirement, life-long learning and ways to encourage
volunteerism and to support family care-giving.
• We considered new evidence suggesting that disability rates
among seniors have declined in some countries while
recognizing the wide variation in the health of older people.
Communiqué: Denver G-8 Summit
– It is important to learn from one another how our policies
and programs can promote active aging and advance
structural reforms to preserve and strengthen our pension,
health and long-term care systems.
– Our governments will work together to promote active aging
through information exchanges and cross-national research.
– We encourage collaborative biomedical and behavioral
research to improve active life expectancy and reduce
disability, and have directed our officials to identify gaps in
knowledge and explore developing comparable data in our
nations to improve our capacity to address the challenges of
population aging.
US National Academy of Science (NAS) Report:
Preparing for an Aging World
• Expert recommendations for:
• International research agenda
• Comparable Data needed to
implement that agenda
National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National
Research.”
NAS Panel Recommendations
• Creation of measures that are
conceptually comparable across
societies (harmonization)
• Database development that can
support critical multidisciplinary
research
National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National
Research.”
The Demographic
Imperative May be Worse
than we Think

!
Projections of Older Population
Very Uncertain
Uncertain Future of:
Fertility Mortality Migration




UN’s Usual High-Medium-Low Variant
Projections only reflect fertility uncertainty.
The future path of old age mortality is very
uncertain and heavily influences the
projected proportions of elderly.
Lutz IIASA
95
90
85
Life-expectancy in years
Female life expectancy in
the record-holding
country
from 1840 to 2000
80
75
Norway
New Zealand
Iceland
Sweden
Japan
The Netherlands
Switzerland
Australia
70
65
60
55
50
45
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
Year
1940
1960
1980
2000
Record Female LE --Another 6 years
Life Expectancy in G-7 Industrialized Nations, 2050
US
UK
Tuljapurkar
Govt Estimate
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Canada
75
80
85
90
Median Life Expectancy, 2050
95
Source: Shripad Tuljapurkar, Nan Li and Carl Boe. A UNIVERSAL PATTERN OF MORTALITY DECLINE IN
THE G-7 COUNTRIES.
Nature 405: 789-792 (15 June 2000).
Western Europe, Uncertainty Distribution of
Proportion above
Age 80 (2000-2100)
Western Europe, Proportion above age 80
Fractiles
0.5
0.45
0.975
Proportion above age 80
0.4
0.35
0.8
0.3
0.25
0.6
Median
0.2
0.4
UN “low”
0.15
0.2
0.1
UN “high”
0.05
0.025
Year
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07:36
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
European Union, 2050
Age
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Period of Birth
males
4.0
3.0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
females
2.0
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1.0
14:36
1.0
0.0 0.0
Population (millions)
2.0
3.0
4.0
European Union, Demographic Support Ratio
(20-64/65+)
European Union, Support ratio
Fractiles
4.50
4.00
Support ratio
3.50
3.00
2.50
0.975
0.8
2.00
0.6
Median
0.4
0.2
1.50
0.025
Year
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2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1.00
PUBLIC PENSION INCENTIVES TO LEAVE THE LABOR FORCE
FOR MEN IN 11 COUNTRIES
Percent of men age 55 and 65 not working
Source: Gruber J, Wise DA, eds. Social Security and Retirement around the World. Chicago, IL: University
of Chicago Press, 1999.
Trends in Late-Life Disability
50
1992-2004
Percent
40
1982, 1984, 1989,
1994, 1999, 2004
30
1998, 2000,
2002, 2004
1983-2005
20
10
0
NHIS 70+
NLTCS 65+
HRS 65+
MCBS 65+
Sources: NLTCS, Manton et al. (2006); NHIS, Schoeni, Freedman, Martin (2006);
MCBS, Trends in Health and Aging (2007); and HRS, unpublished tabulations by Freedman,
Martin, and Schoeni (2007). All estimates age-adjusted.
Projections of Number of Disabled Americans Age 65 & Over
(in millions)
24.0
22.0
20.2
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
10.4
12.0
10.0
8.6
7.3
8.0
6.0
7.0
1.5% decline per annum
(1989-1994)
4.0
2.0
0.0
1996
2004
2012
2020
2028
2036
2044
Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1994 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.) Revised November 1999
2052
22
Increasing Disability
Japan
Belgium
Percentage of those over 65 who qualify
for Long Term Care Services
Sweden
Great Britain –LE and HLE
1981-2001 (ONS)
Expansion of disabled life expectancy
Decline in Disability Rates
Denmark
Italy
Finland
Netherlands
Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment
and Dementia, by Age (HRS-ADAMS)
100%
80%
60%
CIND
Demented
40%
20%
0%
70
75
80
85
90
95
Hours of Care
Hours of Family Care, by Severity of
Cognitive Limitation (HRS data)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Normal
Cognition
Mild
Moderate
Severe
Severity of Cognitive Limitation
Langa K, Kabeto M, Herzog AR, Chernew M, Ofstedal MB, Willis R, Wallace R, Mucha L, Straus W, Fendrick AM. “The quantity and cost of informal
caregiving for the elderly with dementia: Estimates from a nationally representative sample,” Journal of General Internal Medicine 2000; 15 (
Additional Annual Cost of
Informal Caregiving per Person
$18,000
$17,000
$5,000
$1,700
$2,000
Diabetes
Incont.
$0
HRS
Stroke
Chronic Condition
Dementia
Some observations on social and
behavioral research on aging
• Acceleration of interdisciplinary and multilevel
integrative research
• Newly hyphenated-fields – neuro-economics,
behavioral-economics, social-neuroscience,
macro-economic-demography becoming
prominent
• Increasingly, Giga-scale team-science, using largescale costly infrastructure – longitudinal surveys
collecting behavioral data, clinical data !
• Regular interval Longitudinal Studies, essential
• Growing interest in x-national comparative studies
• More thought being given to developing largescale multilevel randomized interventions.
National Institute on Aging (NIA)
investments in large scale
research and resources
• Centers: Demography; Roybal; RCMAR; NACDA
Archive
• Interventions: REACH, ACTIVE, Experience
Corps and more
• Data collection: 40+ Public-use longitudinal
studies including HRS, NLTCS, WLS, MIDUS II,
NSHAP, ELSA, SHARE, SAGE, INDEPTH
• Multi-level vertically-integrated
Program Projects
Does the EU Need a National
Institute on Ageing (NIA) ?
• NIA’s annual budget is over $1 billion –
even with the Euro strength that is quite a
lot
• Enormous improvements in EU research
capacity on ageing, but still fragmented and
lacking in infrastructure for data collection
and analyses
• SHARE is a leader but under-funded
HRS Report
http://www.nia.nih.gov/ResearchInformation/ExtramuralPrograms/BehavioralAndSocialResearch/HRS.htm
The Health and Retirement Study
1992-2008+
a cooperative agreement between
the National Institute on Aging
and the Survey Research Center
of the Institute for Social Research
at the University of Michigan
Motivation for HRS
• Concern over the impact of population aging
on Social Security and Medicare
– and their private counterparts, pensions and retiree
health insurance
• Concern about impact on older people and
their families from reforms of Social Security
and Medicare
– And changes in private pensions and insurance
HRS
The HRS is:
•
•
•
•
A study of aging in the US (population over age 50)
Multi-disciplinary in content
A longitudinal study with replenishment
A public-use dataset: collects data for distribution to
other researchers, does not control analysis
• A foundation for smaller, more focused studies
• A leader in administrative linkages
• An example and support for similar studies in other
countries
How Big is the HRS?
• From 1992 through 2004:
– 30,000 people were interviewed at least
once
– 135,000 interviews were completed
– 7,000 people died
– 5,000 workers retired
HRS Designed to Understand Decisions,
Choices, and Behaviors As People Age, and in
Response to Change in Policies, the Economy,
and Public Health
• Study families rather than individuals
• Gather integrated multidisciplinary information about
all aspects of life
• Follow people over time as events happen and their
choices get made
• Make the data available to researchers and policymakers as quickly as possible
• Let the full power and creativity of America’s scientific
community address the challenges of an aging
population
Fundamental Objects of Measurement
• Resources for successful aging
– Economic, public, familial, physical, psychological
• Behaviors and choices
– Work, health, residence, transfers, use of programs
• Events and transitions
– Health, widowhood, institutionalization
A multidisciplinary effort
A large and diverse community of researchers
actively participated in the study design and
implementation
• Economics
• Sociology
• Demography
•Medicine
•Public Health
•Psychology
Core Content Areas in HRS
• Health
Physical/psychological self-report, conditions, disabilities;
Cognitive testing
Behaviors (smoking, drinking, exercise)
• Health Services
Utilization, expenditure, insurance, out-of-pocket spending
Labor Force
Employment status/history, earnings, disability, retirement, type of work
• Economic Status
Income by source, wealth by asset type, capital gains/debt, consumption
Linkage to pensions, Social Security earnings/benefit histories
• Family Structure
Extended family, proximity, transfers to/from of money, time, housing.
Biomarkers and Performance Tests
– Measures of cardiovascular risk, metabolic
syndrome Cholesterol, A1c, CRP
– Blood Pressure
– DNA
– Physical performance measures
– Anthropometry
– Psychosocial questionnaire
HRS is a foundation for many smaller,
innovative studies:
• Dementia study (ADAMS)
– First nationally representative study of dementia
• Consumption and Activities Study (CAMS)
– Longitudinal data on consumption and time-use
• Diabetes study
– Use of mail survey to collect clinical measure (HbA1c)
• Internet interviewing
– Mode comparisons
• Prescription Drug Study (PDS)
– To evaluate new Medicare drug benefit begun in 2006
The HRS Commitment to Rapid Public
Release
• Interviews every even-numbered year
• Complete at end of year or early the next year
• Early release 3-4 months later
– Nearly complete data
• Final release 12-18 months later
HRS is used by multiple US
Government
HRS ScientificDepartments
Productivity
Creation
of
a
Scientific
Community
And has become the
premier data source in
many areas
HRS: A Public Use Data Set
with an Impact on Research
• 6,000 registered users
• 32,097 downloads in past 2 years
• 600+ scientific papers published using HRS 1,000
total papers
• 1,000 unique authors
• 4 special issues of journals
• 75 Ph.D. dissertations
International standard for similar studies
in other countries
• MHAS: Mexican Health and Ageing Study
• ELSA: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
• SHARE: Survey of Health, Ageing and
Retirement in Europe
• KloSA: Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging
• CHARLS: China HRS
• LASI: India HRS
HRS has created powerful new scientific
communities and new science
• It is a powerful engine for creating new fusions
in science :
–
–
–
–
–
–
psychology and economics
Cognitive neuroscience and economics
Epidemiology and economics
Bio-demography and social neuroscience
Development of new methodologies
International scientific cooperation
HRS Studies’ Global Coverage
?
?
?
HRS in Argentina
Mexican HRS (MHAS)
Health and Retirement Study (HRS)
English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)
Planned Asian HRS studies
Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)
47
SAGE and INDEPTH
•China
•India
•Russia
•Mexico
•South Africa
•Ghana
•Kenya
•Tanzania
•Bangladesh
•Viet Nam
•Indonesia
Evidence and Information for Policy - Global Study on Ageing
Essential Harmonization !
• Cross-national comparisons demand
harmonization
• Without harmonization very difficult if
not impossible
• Requires strong Central coordination
• SHARE’s harmonization must rank as
one of the great feats of social science
in the last 100 years!
Harmonization of Longitudinal CrossNational Surveys of Aging
This must be a critical area for the EU and
SHARE is a world leader in this area
Longitudinal Studies !
• Longitudinal Studies essential for
understanding causal dynamics of aging
• Without longitudinal studies easy to
make incorrect causal inferences e.g.
on wealth health relationship
• Requires equal interval waves
• Our experience -- unequal interval
surveys much more difficult to analyze
Are Americans Really Sicker than the
English?
• Disease and Disadvantage in the United
States and in England
– Banks, Marmot, Oldfield, and Smith (JAMA
May 2006
• Non-Hispanic Whites ages 55-64
DATA
England
– ELSA–2002
– HSE 2003 (clinical measures)
USA
– HRS–2002
– NHANES–1999-2002 (clinical
measures)
Disease Prevalence in England and the
United States (ages 55-64)
14
12
12.5
10
9.5
8
8.1
6
6.3
6.1
5.5
5.4
4
4.0
2
3.8
2.3
0
Diabetes
Heart
Attack
Stroke
England Unadjusted
Lung
Disease
Cancer
United States
Source: Banks, Marmot, Oldfield, and Smith, 2006.
Biological Markers Exhibit
Differences Too
3.8
HbA1c > 6.5%
6.4
32.2
BP>140/90
34.5
England
US
30.4
CRP high risk
40.1
10.0
Fibrinogen high risk
24.0
8.0
Low HDL cholesterol
21.6
0
10
20
30
Prevalence (%)
40
50
Source: Banks et al., JAMA, 2006.
Some differences in risk factors
55-64 year olds
21.9
Current smoker
20.1
66.1
Ever smoked
61.9
England
US
23.0
Obese
31.1
40.9
Overweight
38.8
30.0
Heavy drinker
14.4
0
10
20
30
40
Prevalence (%)
Source: Banks, Marmot, Oldfield, and Smith, JAMA 2006.
50
60
70
The Americans are Sicker
than the English
55-64 year olds; controlling for differences in risk factors
7.2
Diabetes
12.5
35.1
Hypertension
42.4
10.1
Heart Disease
15.1
Stroke
England
US
4.2
5.4
Heart Attack
2.3
3.8
6.2
Lung Disease
8.1
5.4
Cancer
9.5
0
10
20
30
Prevalence (%)
40
50
Source: Banks et al., JAMA, 2006
Diabetes Prevalence
14
12
13
13
10
10
8
9
9
9
8
6
6
7
6
4
7
6
5
2
0
England
Germany
Sweden
United States
Greece
Switzerland
Smith (2008)
Austria
Italy
Total
Denmark
Netherlands
France
Spain
What We Said
• Middle-aged Americans are a sickly lot
– Both self-reports and biomarkers confirm it
• Standard risk factors (smoking, excess drinking,
obesity, minority groups, health insurance) do not
fully explain it
END
HRS Longitudinal Sample Design
AGE
90
AHEAD
85
CODA
80
75
HRS
70
War
Babies
65
60
Early
Boomers
55
Mid
Boomers
50
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
YEAR
C. J. L. Murray, et al., Eight Americas: Investigating Mortality Disparities
across Races, Counties, and Race-Counties in the United States. PLoS
Medicine: Sept. 2006. Vol. 3, Issue 1513 9, e260
www.plosmedicine.org
County life expectancy 1997-2001
Males
Females
Average age-sex race adjusted per-capita Medicare spending
1996 Per-capita
Medicare Spending
$ 3,922
$ 4,439
$ 4,940
$ 5,444
$ 6,304
Ratio: High to Low:
1.61
23 new applications submitted to
Retirement Economics PA
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Economic Decision Making: The Role of Expectations, Information and Cognition
Financial Planning for Retirement: A Psychological Model
Premium Support and Risk Segmentation
The First Decade of Retirement: A Two-Cohort Comparison of Wealth, Health, & Work
Social Influences and Retirement Decisions
Financial Planning for Retirement: How and Why Minorities Differ from the Majority
Unemployment Insurance and Retirement Transitions
Obesity and Work Across the Life Course
Retirement in Pay-as-You-Go versus Personal Accounts Systems - Evidence from
New Directions for Disability Insurance
An Investigation of the Experiences of Early Adopters of Health Savings Accounts
Retirement Contrast: Canada and the United States
Determinants of Pre-Retirees' Decision-Making Competence
The Impact of Labor Markets on Retirement: Evidence from the US Census
Building Retirement Wealth: Evidence from Large Randomized Field Experiments
Modeling the Effect of Health on Retirement
Are Individuals Prepared for Retirement? Five Decades of Retirement Surveys
The Economic Consequences of Disability Onset Near Retirement
The Health and Economic Consequences of Retirement: Longitudinal Trends
A Longitudinal Study of Health, Retirement and Long-Term Care Insurance
Part of the social network from the Framingham Heart Study with
information about BMI in 1975 compared to the year 2000
The Increasing Burden of Chronic
Non-Communicable Diseases: 2002-2030
Source: P01 AG 017625 (PI Murray)
Lopez, et al. Global Burden of Disease by Risk Factors. (2006)
The Smoking Gun?
• SMOKING?
• OBESITY?
• STRESS?
• LOW SOCIAL INTEGRATION?
Years smoked before age 40
Changes in smoking behavior and the impact on mortality
20
Men
Women
15
10
5
0
1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950
Birth Year
Source: Preston and Wang. 2006. Demography 43(43): 631-46.
Cancer Rates, US 1930-2003
Women
Men
'Per 100,000, age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population
Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes 1960 to 2003, US Mortality Volumes 1930 to 1959, National Center for Health
Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2006. American Cancer Society, Surveillance Research, 2007
Trends in Late-Life Disability
50
MCBS 65+
30
NLTCS 65+
HRS 75+
20
NHIS 70+
10
0
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Percent
40
Sources: NLTCS, Manton et al. (2006); NHIS, Schoeni, Freedman, Martin (2006);
MCBS, Trends in Health and Aging (2007); and HRS, unpublished tabulations by Freedman,
Martin, and Schoeni (2007). All estimates age-adjusted.
Trends in Late-Life Disability
50
1992-2004
Percent
40
1982, 1984, 1989,
1994, 1999, 2004
30
1998, 2000,
2002, 2004
1983-2005
20
10
0
NHIS 70+
NLTCS 65+
HRS 65+
MCBS 65+
Sources: NLTCS, Manton et al. (2006); NHIS, Schoeni, Freedman, Martin (2006);
MCBS, Trends in Health and Aging (2007); and HRS, unpublished tabulations by Freedman,
Martin, and Schoeni (2007). All estimates age-adjusted.
Declining Disability Trend in Japan?
Figure 1. Number of Disabled Japanese if Disability Prevalence Had Not Improved
8.0
If disability rate
had not changed since 1993
7.0
6.0
5.6
5.9
6.1
5.7
5.0
Millions of
Disabled 65 4.0
and Older
6.9
Actual
5.4
4.7
3.0
2.0
1.0
Total Population 65 and Older in Each Year (in Millions)
19.0
21.2
16.9
23.6
0.0
'93
'94
'95
Source: Schoeni, Liang, and Bennett, 2004.
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
Projections of Functional Status of Future Elderly
“As the number and share of the population aged 65 and over will continue
to grow steadily in OECD countries, improvements in the functional status
of elderly people could help mitigate the rise in the demand for, and hence
expenditures on, long-term care… One of the main policy implications that
can be drawn from the findings of this study is that it would not be prudent
for policymakers to count on future reductions in the prevalence of future
disability to offset completely the rising demand for long-term care that will
result from population aging…”
Stable Rates
Australia
Canada
Increasing Disability
Japan
Belgium
Percentage of those over 65 who qualify
for Long Term Care Services
Sweden
Great Britain –LE and HLE
1981-2001 (ONS)
Expansion of disabled life expectancy
But Will the Decline Continue?
COMPETING VECTORS:
• Increased Education and better TX for CVD are
major factors that account for the disability
decline, but their push ending
• But three+ analyses of cohorts find disability for
adults under age 65, either increased or showed
no improvement, and some predict end of trend
• Today obesity appears to influence disability
more than mortality
Table 1: Cross-Cohort Comparisons of Health Measures for
Male Respondents Aged 51-56 in Different HRS Cohorts
Birth Year
Self-rated
Health
(5=poor, 1=
excellent)
Fair or Poor
Health
Subjective
Probability
of Survival
to Age 75
Health Limits
Work
Number of
Limitations
Number of
Health
Conditions
1936-41 2.39
16.7%
62.3%
17.5%
2.12
0.70
1942-47 2.51
19.3%
61.8%
17.8%
2.12
0.68
1948-53 2.59
22.1%
60.7%
19.2%
2.06
0.71
t-statistic 4.82
3.83
-1.42
1.22
-0.69
0.42
Notes: The t-statistic tests the hypothesis of no change between the birth cohort
of 1936-41 (assessed in 1992) and the cohort of 1948-53 (assessed in 2004).
Source: Weir, David R. Are Baby Boomers Living Well Longer? in Bridget Madrian, Bridget,
Mitchell, Olivia S. and Soldo, Beth J. (eds.), Redefining Retirement How will Boomers Fare?
Obese Are More Disabled
Age
Obese
Not Obese
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Rate per 10,000
Source: Lakdawalla, Bhattacharya, Goldman, Health Affairs, 2004.
Where in the World are
the DATA?
RFA: “National Study of
Disability Trends and Dynamics”
• U.S. 65+ population in community and
institutional settings
• link to Medicare records
• New survey, or supplement existing
survey, or new wave or successor
NLTCS
• December 20/January 18, 2008
The shift from Defined Benefit Pensions to
401(K) Plans, Shifts Risk to Individuals
•
Source: Poterba, Venti, and Wise (2007), “The shift from defined benefit pensions to
401(k) plans and the pension assets of the baby boom cohort,” PNAS 104(3).
Procrastination in retirement savings
Choi, Laibson, Madrian, Metrick (2002)
 Survey
– Mailed to a random sample of employees
– Matched to administrative data on actual savings
behavior
 Consider a typical population of 100 employees
– 68% report saving too little
– 24 of 68 planned to raise 401(k) contribution in
next 2 months
– Only 3 of the 24 actually did so in the next 4 months
Clever Use of Behavioral Economics
Madrian and Shea (2001)
Choi, Laibson, Madrian, Metrick (2004)
401(k) participation by tenure at firm
100%
Automatic
enrollment
80%
60%
Standard
enrollment
40%
20%
0%
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
Tenure at company (months)
42
48
The HRS Data System: Counts for Y17-22
• 59,718 interviews
– 25,000 with biomarkers and other added content,
– 4,222 exits
• 32,138 mail surveys
– 12,138 CAMS panel
• 21,228 Social Security linkages
• 18,688 Medicare linkages (1800 MDS)
• 1,430 in-home neuropsychological assessments
– On 850 ADAMS respondents
HRS
Outline
• Institutional Aspects for Aging Research in
Europe and Asia
• Dealing with Uncertainty in
Future Aging Trends
• Adding Education to Age and Sex in the
Study of Population Aging
Institutional Challenges in Asia
• Need for skill upgrading among professionals and integration into
cutting age research (not just bi-lateral collaboration)
• More comparative analysis of joint challenges
• Asian MetaCentre (NUS, Chula, IIASA) – Wellcome Trust
Regional Centre of Excellence. Funding greatly reduced.
• Good new Journal “Asian Population Studies”
• Currently establishment of Asian Population Association
• Challenge of communication of demographic knowledge to policy
making audiences and public at large (Panic in Korea)
Institutional Challenges in Europe
• Fragmented research landscape. Not enough collaboration
between national demographic centers.
• Need for skill upgrading among professionals and integration in
cutting age research.
• More comparative analysis of joint challenges
• Increasing collaboration of scientists across border (EUFramework Programs).
• Intensifying collaboration among major research centers (INED,
NIDI, MPIDR, VID/IIASA)
• Increasingly active European Population Association (Barcelona)
• Challenge of communication of demographic knowledge to policy
making audiences and public at large (Panic in the East)
Future Aging
• For projecting the population by age and sex we need the
current population by age and sex and make assumptions
about the three components of change:
Fertility - Mortality - Migration
The future paths of all three components are
uncertain.
• The usual High-Medium-Low Variants Approach (UN
Population projections) only reflects fertility uncertainty.
• The future path of old age mortality is highly uncertain and
greatly influences the projected proportions of elderly.
• Hence the High-Medium-Low Approach is misleading.
er
st
We
Re
gio
n
30
20
t Un
ion
Am
o
Sov
ie
N
pea
n
40
rth
Eur
o
Western E
urope
50
a
ic
er
As
ia
60
Pa
cif
ic
70
uro
nE
Ch
ina
80
pe
Europ
e
90
Easte
rn
Jap
an
/Oc
ea
nia
100
Figure 1. Percentage of simulations when proportion 60+ is
greater of equal to 1/3
ti
La
10
0
2000
So
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
2060
eri
m
nA
ca
ia
As
h
ut
2070
World
Sub Saharan Africa
2080
2090
2100