Transcript Document

Using Prevention Science
to Guide Community Action
J. David Hawkins, Ph.D.
Endowed Professor of Prevention
Social Development Research Group
School of Social Work
University of Washington
[email protected]
www.sdrg.org
Objectives

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A science-based public health approach to
violence prevention.
Advances in identifying effective and
ineffective youth violence prevention policies
and programs.
A strategy for enhancing protection,
reducing risk and preventing youth violence.
A process for community wide youth
violence prevention.
History of Delinquency
Prevention in the U.S.

Before 1980, nine experimental tests of
delinquency prevention programs were
conducted in the U.S.
– NONE found desired effects in preventing
delinquency. (Berleman, 1980)
The Premise of Prevention
Science
To prevent a problem before it
happens, the factors that
predict the problem must be
changed.
Advances in Prediction
•
Longitudinal studies have identified predictors
of delinquency, violence, and other problem
behaviors –
Called : Risk factors.
•
AND predictors of positive outcomes
including success in school
•
Called : Promotive and protective
factors.
Risk Factors for
Adolescent Problem Behaviors
Depression &
Anxiety
Violence
School Drop-Out
Teen Pregnancy
Delinquency
Substance Abuse
Risk Factors
Community
Availability of Drugs
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Availability of Firearms
Community Laws and Norms Favorable
Toward Drug Use, Firearms, and Crime
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Media Portrayals of Violence
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Transitions and Mobility
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Low Neighborhood Attachment and
Community Disorganization
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Extreme Economic Deprivation
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Risk Factors for
Adolescent Problem Behaviors
Depression &
Anxiety
Violence
School Drop-Out
Teen Pregnancy
Delinquency
Substance Abuse
Risk Factors
Family
Family History of the Problem Behavior
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Family Management Problems
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Family Conflict
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Favorable Parental Attitudes and
Involvement in the Problem Behavior
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Risk Factors for
Adolescent Problem Behaviors
Delinquency
Teen Pregnancy
School Drop-Out
Violence
Depression & Anxiety
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Lack of Commitment to School
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Substance Abuse
Academic Failure Beginning in Late
Elementary School
Risk Factors
School
Risk Factors for
Adolescent Problem Behaviors
School Drop-Out
Violence
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Depression &
Anxiety
Teen Pregnancy
Delinquency
Substance Abuse
Risk Factors
Individual/Peer
Early and Persistent Antisocial Behavior
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Rebelliousness
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Early Initiation of the Problem Behavior
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Gang Membership
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Constitutional Factors
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Friends Who Engage in the Problem
Behavior
Favorable Attitudes Toward the Problem
Behavior
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Promotive and Protective
Factors
• Individual Characteristics
• High Intelligence
• Resilient Temperament
• Competencies and Skills
• In social domains of family, school, peer group and
neighborhood
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•
•
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Prosocial Opportunities
Reinforcement for Prosocial Involvement
Bonding
Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards for
Behavior
Prevalence of “Attacked to Hurt”
By Risk and Protection Levels
60%
Prevalence
50%
40%
30%
20%
Protection, Level 0
Protection, Level 1
Protection, Level 2
Protection, Level 3
Protection, Level 4
10%
0%
Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level
0
1
2
3
4
Prevalence of Academic Success
By Number of Risk and Protective Factors
Six State Student Survey of 6th-12th Graders,
Public School Students
100%
90%
Number of
Protective
Factors
80%
Prevalence
70%
0
2
4
6
8
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 to 1
2 to 3
4 to 5
6 to 7
Number of Risk Factors
8 to 9
10+
to
to
to
to
to
1
3
5
7
9
What Is Known About
Predictors of Youth Violence
 Risk & protective factors are found in communities,
families, schools, peer groups and individuals.
 The same risk & protective factors predict violence
and other health and behavior problems of youth.
 Risk & protective factors show much consistency in
effects across races and genders in samples from
the US, the UK, Australia and the Netherlands.
 The more risk factors present, the greater
likelihood of violence, and the less likelihood of
successful outcomes.
 Protective factors reduce effects of exposure to
risk -- the greater the level of protection, the less
likelihood of violence.
Advances in Prevention
Controlled studies have identified
both ineffective and effective
prevention and youth development
policies and programs.
What Doesn’t Work?
*Negative Effects
• Waivers to Adult (Criminal Courts)*
• “Scared Straight”*
• D.A.R.E.
• Guided Group Interaction & Positive Peer Culture
• Gun Buyback Programs
• Peer Counseling Programs
• Summer Job Programs for At Risk Youth
* Adapted from Sherman et al., 1997.
Effective Programs and Policies Have Been
Identified in a Wide Range of Areas
1.
Prenatal & Infancy
Programs
2.
3.
4.
5.
Early Childhood Education
6.
Youth Employment with
Education
7.
Organizational Change in
Schools
Parent Training
After-school Recreation
Mentoring with Contingent
Reinforcement
8.
Classroom Organization,
Management, and
Instructional Strategies
9. School Behavior
Management Strategies
10. Curricula for Social
Competence Promotion
11. Community & School
Policies
12. Community Mobilization
(Hawkins & Catalano, 2004)
Lists of Rigorously Tested and
Effective Youth Violence Prevention
Approaches
• Blueprints for Violence Prevention
www.colorado.edu/cspv/blueprints/
• Communities That Care Prevention
Strategies Guide
http://preventionplatform.samhsa.gov/
Nurse-Family Partnership
Description:
Nurse home visitation
Target:
Low-income, at-risk pregnant women bearing
their first child
Contact:
David Olds, M.D., Director
Prevention Research Center
1825 Marion Street
Denver, CO 80218
303-864-5200
Nurse-Family Partnership
Evidence of Effect
Reductions in:
Prenatal Health Problems.
Subsequent Births.
Welfare and Food Stamp Use.
Maternal Arrests (61%) and
Convictions (72%).
Nurse-Family Partnership
Evidence of Effect
Reductions in:
 Maternal Unemployment.
 Child abuse, neglect, and injuries
(48%).
 Child Arrests (59%) and Adjudications
as PINS (90%) @ age 15.
Promoting Alternative Thinking
Strategies (PATHS)
Description:
Social and emotional competence
Target:
Grades K-5
Cost:
$82/student Yr 1 (training & FT consultant included)
Costs in Year 2 reduced by half
Contact:
Mark Greenberg, Ph.D., Director
Prevention Research Center,
Penn State University
110 HDFS-Henderson Building South
University Park, PA 16802
814-863-0112
PATHS
Evidence of Effect
• Decreased conduct problems, including
aggression.
• Improved self-control.
• Improved understanding and recognition
of emotions.
• Improved conflict resolution strategies.
• Improved cognitive planning.
Bullying
Prevention Program
Description: Reduction of victim/bully problems
Target:
Grades 4-7
Cost:
Full-time consultant, minimal classroom
costs
Contact:
Dan Olweus, Ph.D.
Research Center for Health Promotion
(HEMIL)
University of Bergen
Christiesgt. 13, N-5015
Bergen, Norway 47-55-58-23-27
Bullying Prevention Program
Evidence of Effect
• Reductions in bully/victim problems of 50
percent.
• Reductions in antisocial behavior (theft,
vandalism, truancy).
• Improvement in school climate.
Seattle Social Development
Project
Description: Promote bonding to school and family by
increasing youths’ opportunities, skills and
recognition for prosocial involvement.
Target:
Grades 1-6 (ages 6-12)
Contact:
J. David Hawkins Ph.D.
Social Development Research Group
University of Washington
www.sdrg.org
Risk Factors Addressed By the SSDP
Intervention
Family
School
X
X
X
X
X
X
Individual/Peer
X
X
X
The Social Development Strategy
The Goal…
Healthy Behaviors
Ensure…
Healthy Beliefs
and
Clear Standards
By providing…
…in families, schools,
and peer groups
Bonding
Build…
…to families, schools,
and peer groups
–Attachment
–Commitment
Opportunities
Skills
…for all children and youth
Recognition
…in families, schools,
and peer groups
Be Aware of…
Individual Characteristics
Seattle Social Development Project
Core Components
Teacher
Training in Classroom
Instruction and Management
Parent Training
in Behavior Management and
Academic Support
Child Social and Emotional Skill
Development
Intervention Component:
Teacher In-Service
Proactive classroom management (grades 1-6)
•
•
•
•
Establish consistent classroom expectations and routines at the beginning of the year
Give clear, explicit instructions for behavior
Recognize and reward desirable student behavior and efforts to comply
Use methods that keep minor classroom disruptions from interrupting instruction
Effective Direct Instruction (grades 1-6)
•
•
•
•
•
Assess and activate foundation knowledge before teaching
Teach to explicit learning objectives
Model skills to be learned
Frequently monitor student comprehension as material is presented
Re-teach material when necessary
Cooperative learning (grades 1-6)
•
•
Involve small teams of students of different ability levels and backgrounds as
learning partners
Provide recognition to teams for academic improvement of individual members
over past performance
Parent Programs
Raising Healthy Children (grades 1-2)
•
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Observe and pinpoint desirable and undesirable child behaviors
Teach expectations for behaviors
Provide consistent positive reinforcement for desired behavior
Provide consistent and moderate consequences for undesired
behaviors
Supporting School Success (grades 2-3)
•


Initiate conversation with teachers about children’s learning
Help children develop reading and math skills
Create a home environment supportive of learning
Guiding Good Choices (grades 5-6)
•


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Establish a family policy on drug use
Practice refusal skills with children
Use self-control skills to reduce family conflict
Create new opportunities in the family for children to contribute
and learn
Social, Cognitive and
Emotional Skills Training
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
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
Listening
Following directions
Social awareness (boundaries, taking perspective
of others)
Sharing and working together
Manners and civility (please and thank you)
Compliments and encouragement
Problem solving
Emotional regulation (anger control)
Refusal skills
Support Structures

School Staff
– Implementation team training
– 7 days of teacher training
– Coaching
– Principal support

Family
– Training in each parenting curriculum
SSDP Intervention Effects
Compared to Controls
By the start of 5th grade, those in the full
intervention had
• less initiation of alcohol
• less initiation of delinquency
• better family management
• better family communication
• better family involvement
• higher attachment to family
• higher school rewards
• higher school bonding
At the end of the 2nd grade
• boys less aggressive
• girls less self-destructive
Late Tx
Late Tx
Full Intervention
Full Intervention
Control
Control
Grade
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Age
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Level of School Bonding
Effects of SSDP Intervention on
School Bonding from Age 13 to 18
3.10
Full Treatment
Late Treatment
Control
3.05
3.00
2.95
2.90
2.85
2.80
2.75
2.70
13
14
15
Age
16
Hawkins, Guo, Hill, Battin-Pearson & Abbott (2001)
17
18
SSDP Intervention Effects
Compared to Controls
By age 18 Youths in the
Full Intervention had
less heavy alcohol use: 25.0% Control vs. 15.4% Full
less lifetime violence: 59.7% Control vs. 48.3% Full
fewer lifetime sex partners: 61.5% Control vs. 49.7% Full
less grade repetition: 22.8% Control vs. 14.0% Full
Late Tx
Late Tx
Full Intervention
Full Intervention
Control
Control
Grade
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Age
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
SSDP Intervention Effects
Compared to Controls
By age 21, full intervention
group had:
More high school graduates: 81% Control vs. 91% Full
More attending college: 6% Control vs. 14% Full
Fewer selling drugs: 13% Control vs. 4% Full
Fewer with a criminal record: 53% Control vs. 42% Full
Late Tx
Late Tx
Full Intervention
Full Intervention
Control
Control
Grade
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Age
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Benefits and Costs of
Prevention and Early
Intervention Programs for Youth
Steve Aos, Associate Director
Washington State Institute for Public Policy
Phone: (360) 586-2768
E-mail: [email protected]
Institute Publications: www.wa.gov/wsipp
Selected Findings
Summary of Benefits and Costs (2003 Dollars)
Dollars Per Youth (PV lifecycle)
Benefits
Costs
B-C
Early Childhood Education
Nurse Family Partnership
Functional Family Therapy
Aggression Repl. Trng.
Life Skills Training
Seattle Soc. Dev. Project
$17,202
$26,298
$16,455
$9,564
$746
$14,246
$7,301
$9,118
$2,140
$759
$29
$4,590
$9,901
$17,180
$14,315
$8,805
$717
$9,837
Guiding
Choices
$7,605
BenefitsGood
Per Youth
Reduced
crime
Multi-D
Treat.
Foster Care
$26,748
Increased
high
school graduation $0
Intensive
Juv.
Supervision
Reduced K-12 grade repetition
Cost Per Youth
Benefits Per Dollar of Cost
$687 $14,426
$6,918
$3,957$24,290
$2,459
$10,320 -$1,482
$1,482
$150
$4,590
$3.14
7 of 10
But…
Prevention approaches that do not
work or have not been evaluated have
been more widely used than those
shown to be effective.
(Gottfredson & Gottfredson, 2002, Hallfors et al 2001,
Ringwalt et al., 2002.)
Empowering Communities
to Prevent Youth Violence

Youths in different neighborhoods and
communities are exposed to different
levels of risk and protection.
Distribution of Risk in a City
N eighborh oo d #2
In su f fic ie nt n um b e r of
st u de n ts in th is are a.
No s tu d en ts
in t his a re a .
N eighborh oo d #1
N eighborh oo d #3
J ohn A. Pollard , P h.D. Dev elopm ental Res earch and Pr ogram s
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Percent At Risk
Madison
Middle
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RiskProfile
Profile8th
8th Grade
Grade
Madison
Middle
School
2002
2002
100%
90%
Community
Family
School
Peer-Individual
80%
Survey Participation Rate 2002: 87.4%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
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School 2002
District 2002
Estimated National Value
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The Goal for Community Prevention
To identify and address those risk
factors that are most prevalent and
those protective factors that are most
depressed with tested and effective
policies and programs.
Challenges for Community
Prevention



To identify the community’s profile of
risk and protection.
To address elevated risks and low
protection with tested and effective
preventive actions.
To evaluate outcomes to insure desired
effects are achieved in the community.
The Communities That Care
Operating System
Get Started
Implement and
Evaluate
Creating
Communities
That Care
Create a Plan
Get Organized
Develop a Profile
The Communities That Care
Operating System
• Community readiness
assessment.
• Identification of key
individuals, stakeholders,
and organizations.
Get Started
Implement and
Evaluate
Creating
Communities
That Care
Create a Plan
Get Organized
Develop a Profile
The Communities That Care
Operating System
• Training key leaders
and board in CTC
Get Started
Implement and
Evaluate
• Building the
community coalition.
Creating
Communities
That Care
Create a Plan
Get Organized
Develop a Profile
The Communities That Care
Operating System
Get Started
Implement and
Evaluate
Creating
Communities
That Care
Create a Plan
• Collect
risk/protective factor
and outcome data.
•Collect information on
community resources
• Construct a
community profile from
the data.
Get Organized
Develop a Profile
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ing
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Lo
Percent At Risk
Madison Middle School Risk Profile 8th Grade
2002
100%
90%
Community
Diffusion Consortium Project
Social Development Research Group, University of Washington
Family
School
Peer-Individual
80%
Survey Participation Rate 2002: 87.4%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
School 2002
District 2002
Estimated National Value
The Communities That Care
Operating System
Get Started
Implement
and
• Define outcomes.
•Prioritize factors to be
Evaluate
targeted.
• Select tested, effective
interventions.
• Create action plan.
• Develop evaluation plan.
Creating
Communities
That Care
Create a Plan
Get Organized
Develop a Profile
Addressing Barriers with
Effective Action
Factor Addressed
Family Management
Problems
Diffusion Consortium Project
Social Development Research Group, University of Washington
Program Strategy
Developmental Period
Prenatal/Infancy Programs
prenatal-2
Early Childhood Education
3-5
Parent Training
prenatal-14
Family Therapy
6-14
Effective Training for
Middle School Parents
• Guiding Good Choices (Spoth et al., 1998)
• Adolescent Transitions Program (Dishion and
Andrews, 1995)
• Parenting Adolescents Wisely (Gordon et al.,
1998)
• Creating Lasting Connections (Johnson et al.,
1996)
• Strengthening Families 10 to 14 Program (Spoth,
1998)
• Focus on Families (Catalano et al., 1999; 1997)
Diffusion Consortium Project
Social Development Research Group, University of Washington
The Communities That Care
Operating System
• Form task forces.
• Identify and train
implementers.
• Sustain collaborative
relationships.
• Evaluate processes and
outcomes.
• Adjust programming.
Implement and
Evaluate
Get Started
Creating
Communities
That Care
Create a Plan
Get Organized
Develop a Profile
The Communities That Care Prevention
Operating System is available at:
http://preventionplatform.samhsa.gov/
Summary and Implications
Organizations concerned with violence and
health and behavior problems of youth
should:


Collect epidemiologic data on levels of risk
and protective factors to focus community
action on the most elevated risks.
Collaborate to strengthen protection and
reduce shared risks for these problems.
Summary and Implications



Tested and effective policies and
programs for preventing youth
violence are available.
Use tested and effective approaches
where possible and appropriate.
Support rigorous evaluation of these
approaches in these new contexts.
Using Prevention Science
to Guide Community Action
J. David Hawkins, Ph.D.
Endowed Professor of Prevention
Social Development Research Group
School of Social Work
University of Washington
[email protected]
www.sdrg.org