Transcript Presentation to INPE***

The next generation of GFDL's
land model: Improving the fire
component in the Earth
System Modeling framework
Sam Rabin
PhD student, Ecology & Evolutionary Biology
Princeton University
Advisor: Dr. Stephen Pacala
Outline
1.
2.
GFDL’s Earth System Model
Land model (LM3)
1.
2.
3.
3.
Published processes
Results
Developments
Fire module
1.
2.
3.
Present formulation
New model
My plans
Earth System Modeling framework
Atmospheric circulation and radiation
Climate Model
Sea ice
Ocean circulation
Land physics
and hydrology
Atmospheric circulation and radiation
Allows interactive CO2
Earth System
Model
Sea ice
Ocean ecology and
biogeochemistry
Ocean circulation
*Many other definitions of an ESM
Plant ecology and
land use
Land physics
and hydrology
GFDL’s ESM
Atmosphere: AM2.1 (AM3 in development)
 2-degree grid, 24 layers
 No atmospheric chemistry
Ocean (MOM & GOLD)
 1-degree grid
 Models differ in layering & coordinate systems
 MOM: Z coordinate system
 GOLD: Isopycnal
Land (LM3v and LM3)…
Land model: LM3
 Land surface, hydrological processes
 Ecological processes, biogeochemical cycling
 Land use & management (works with AR5 LU scenarios)
Shevliakova et al., 2009
LM3: Vegetation structure
5 veg. types
5 veg. C pools
2 soil C pools
Mortality (fire, other)
Shevliakova et al., 2009
LM3: Land use
Shevliakova et al., 2009
Outline
1.
2.
GFDL’s Earth System Model
Land model (LM3)
1.
2.
3.
3.
Published processes
Results
Developments
Fire module
1.
2.
3.
Present formulation
New model
My plans
Modeled C distributions (present)
Observation-based
estimates
LM3v potential,
current climate
Vegetation C, Kg/m2
Soil C, Kg/m2
Modeled C distributions (present)
R. Stouffer, pers. communication
Pg C
Model
• ESM and Tans’
estimates similar in
magnitude
• Land flux changes
sign near 1950
Tans, 2009
Land use
Wood harvest:
LM3 simulations vs.
FAO-based data
C flux from land use
Shevliakova et al., 2009
Outline
1.
2.
GFDL’s Earth System Model
Land model (LM3)
1.
2.
3.
3.
Published processes
Results
Developments
Fire module
1.
2.
3.
Present formulation
New model
My plans
Development: Nitrogen
Recently implemented, still experimental
Processes
 Limiting productivity
 Limiting C decomposition & stabilization
 N competition among biotic & abiotic processes
 Ecosystem losses (DON, volatile N)
 Inputs through deposition, fixation
See Gerber et al. (2010)
LM3: Coupled C-N cycling
Adapted from Gerber et al. (2010).
Respiration
CO2, N2, reactive N
Fire
Photosynthesis
(+)
Deposition
Fixation
Litterfall
(+)
Litter
Stabilization
(+)
Mineralization
Immobilization
Soil organic
matter
Organic C/N
Mineral N
Mineralization
Inorganic C
Mineral N
Uptake
Leaching/Denitrification
Leaching
LM3: Vegetation N
Leaves
~30:1
Sapwood
150:1
Heartwood
500:1
Storage
Roots
~50:1
 Specify C:N ratio in
tissues as a parameter
 Storage = 1 year of
tissue regeneration.
 Not enough storage?
Photosynthesis
reduced
 Enough storage?
Plant N uptake reduced
Nitrate and
Ammonium
Adapted from Gerber et al. (2010).
Modeled
vegetation
N
(kg m-2)
Modeled soil N
(kg m-2)
“Observed”
soil N
(kg m-2)
(Global Soil Data
Task Group, 2000)
Development:
Perfect Plasticity Approximation
Individual traits  Community dynamics
 Parameterize with forest inventory data
Simulates layered canopies, not just “green
carpet”
 Separate energy balances, temperatures,
photosynthetic rates
 Understory and overstory  Fire modeling
Improves allocation
From Strigul et al. (2008)
Other PPA implications
Allows modeling of invasion
Describes canopy structure…
 Shape & spacing of crowns
 Allows development of customized BRDF
PPA canopy simulation
PPA and forest canopy
From Strigul et al. (2008)
Outline
1.
2.
GFDL’s Earth System Model
Land model (LM3)
1.
2.
3.
3.
Published processes
Results
Developments
Fire module
1.
2.
3.
Present formulation
New model
My plans
Fire: Current model
Product of…
 Historic fire return interval (3 for entire globe)
 Fuel loading relative to quasi-equilibrium value
(3 for entire globe)
 Drought indicator (binary)
Fire mortality rate calculated annually
 Based on monthly values for fuel, drought
Fire: Current model (continued)
From Shevliakova et al. (2009)
Outline
1.
2.
GFDL’s Earth System Model
Land model (LM3)
1.
2.
3.
3.
Published processes
Results
Developments
Fire module
1.
2.
3.
Present formulation
New model
My plans
Fire: New model
 B. Magi et al., paper in preparation
 Materials provided by Magi
primary
crop, pasture
secondary
Fire: New model (continued)
inputs
-lightning (OTD/LIS)
-population density (HYDE)
-meteorology (T, q, precip)
-crop residue burning (YL2003)
-land use (H2006)
deforestation
primary
crop, pasture
secondary
climate
ignition
fire size
climate
ignition
fire size
residue
climate
ignition
fire size
burned area
burned area
constraints
-satellite products
-ground-based data
- fire agency reports
burned
area
total burned area
References: B. Magi et al., in preparation, 2011; OTD/LIS from NASA; HYDE3.1 described by Klein
Goldewijk et al. 2010; YL2003 is Yevich and Logan, 2003; H2006 is Hurtt et al., 2006.
burned area
New model output:
Monthly burned area
References: Fire Model described in Magi et al., in preparation, 2011; GFED3.1 burned area from Giglio et al., 2010.
Outline
1.
2.
GFDL’s Earth System Model
Land model (LM3)
1.
2.
3.
3.
Published processes
Results
Developments
Fire module
1.
2.
3.
Present formulation
New model
My plans
Fire: Next steps
Implement new model into LM3
“Fire scar” tiles
Explicitly model litter
 Also helps decomposition, C & N
Improve dependence of burned area on
weather, fuel loading
 Established methods
 Adapt – or remake – for tropics?
Model vegetation effects
Tropical fire modeling
Ignitions
 Pop. density
 Deforestation
 GDP
 Roads
 Crops/pasture
Fire size
 Humidity
 Fragmentation
All while considering fire type
Acknowledgements
Elena Shevliakova & Sergey Malyshev (Princeton/GFDL)
John P. Krasting (GFDL)
Steve Pacala (advisor, Princeton)
Funding provided by:
My hosts
Works cited
 Gerber, S., Hedin, L. O., Oppenheimer, M., Pacala, S. W., & Shevliakova, E.
(2010). Nitrogen cycling and feedbacks in a global dynamic land model. Global
Biogeochemical Cycles 24(1), GB1001.
 Global Soil Data Task Group. 2000. Global Gridded Surfaces of Selected Soil
Characteristics (IGBP-DIS). [Global Gridded Surfaces of Selected Soil
Characteristics (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme - Data and
Information System)]. Data set. Available on-line [http://www.daac.ornl.gov] from
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge,
Tennessee, U.S.A. doi:10.3334/ORNLDAAC/569.
 Magi, B., et al., in preparation, 2011.
 Shevliakova, E., Pacala, S., Malyshev, S., Hurtt, G., Milly, P., Caspersen, J.,
Sentman, L., et al. (2009). Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change:
Importance of the secondary vegetation sink. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
23(2).
 Strigul, N., Pristinski, D., Purves, D., Dushoff, J., & Pacala, S. (2008). Scaling
from trees to forests: tractable macroscopic equations for forest dynamics.
Ecological Monographs 78(4), 523–545.
 Tans, P. (2009), An accounting of the observed increase in oceanic and
atmospheric CO2 and an outlook for the future, Oceanography 22(4), 26-35.
Supplemental slides
Why only 5 vegetation types?
 Different from PFT’s
 Can represent many different PFT’s
 PFT-like properties are emergent from climate, nutrients
 Downside: No mixed forest
 PPA
 Allows many species
 Eventually, even vegetation type is an emergent property
Canopy and
canopy air
Atmosphere
C & N uptake and release
Carbon gain
Plant type
LAI, height,
roots
leaching
wood
sapwood
labile
fine leaves
roots
Land-use management, t ~ 1 year
Land-use
transitions
Climate statistics
Biogeography, t ~ 1 year
Mortality, natural and fire t ~ 1 year
Phenology, t~ 1 month
C & N allocation and growth, t ~ 1 day
t~ 30 min
{
Photosynthesis
Plant and soil respiration
Energy and moisture balance
Soil/snow
Dynamic Land Model LM3
structure
Land energy, water, carbon
and nitrogen exchange
Vegetation dynamics
Annual Burned Area Simulated by the Fire Model
Fire Model Burned Area
Annual Burned Area (Mha)
r = 0.61
fraction of gridcell burned (0-1)
fire model (411 Mha*)
r = 0.89
GFED3.1 (355 Mha*)
Key Points
•Spatial correlation with GFED3.1 is 0.61
•Burned area simulated by the fire model is
within the range (285-408 Mha*) of
satellite-based estimates from GFED3.1,
L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MCD45
*1 Mha = 10,000 km2
Years (2000-2009)
References: Fire Model described in B. Magi et al., in preparation, 2011; GFED3.1 burned area from Giglio et al., 2010. Other burned
area products are L3JRC (Tansey et al., 2008), MODIS MCD45 (Roy et al., 2008), and GLOBCARBON (Plummer et al., 2006).
Mean Monthly Burned Area Simulated by the Fire Model
Burned area (Mha/month)
Northern Hemisphere
Tropics
Southern Hemisphere
Tropics
GFED3.1
GFED3.1
fire model total
naturally-occuring
agricultural
Months
Months
References: Fire Model described in Magi et al., in preparation, 2011; GFED3.1 burned area from Giglio et al., 2010.
Mean Monthly Burned Area Simulated by the Fire Model
Burned area (Mha/month)
Boreal North America
Central Asia
(Ukraine to SE Russia)
GFED3.1
GFED3.1
fire model total
agricultural
naturally-occurring
Months
Months
References: Fire Model described in Magi et al., in preparation, 2011; GFED3.1 burned area from Giglio et al., 2010.
Mean Monthly Burned Area Simulated by the Fire Model
References: Fire Model described in Magi et al., in preparation, 2011; GFED3.1 burned area from Giglio et al., 2010.
Adapted from Gerber et al. (2010).
LM3: Coupled C-N cycling
Respiration
CO2, N2, reactive N
Fire
Photosynthesis
(+)
Deposition
Fixation
Litterfall
(+)
Litter
Stabilization
(+)
Mineralization
Immobilization
Soil organic
matter
Organic C/N
Mineral N
Mineralization
Inorganic C
Mineral N
Uptake
Leaching/Denitrification
Leaching