Transcript ClimDev-Africa Dinner Dialogue

ClimDev-Africa Dinner Dialogue
Science for development:
Can Africa Sustain its Transformational
Development Without Investing in
Climate Science?
Outline
Climate Science
– Situation
– Objectives & experience of pilot projects of ClimDevAfrica/ACPC
– Advancing knowledge and research priorities for users
The Dinner Dialogue Questions
Discussions
Climate Impacts
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and
Agricultural GDP growth
MADAGASCAR:
80
25
20
60
10
20
5
0
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
-20
1983
0
1982
%
15
40
In Feb 2012 Cyclone Giovanna
killed 10 people
-5
-10
-15
-40
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
-60
-80
-20
-25
-30
year
MOZAMBIQUE Flood
40 people died, 150,000
people fled in Chokwe
town, and surroundings
(Jan 2013)
Loss in production, infrastructure,
and increased poverty
SOUTH AFRICA:
6 died when the Limpopo river
burst its banks (Jan 2013)
Climate Science Situation
• Meteorological & hydrological data are basis for knowledge,
decision making & actions
• Application fields include DRR, water management,
agriculture, aviation, transport, risk management, etc
Data
Observations, climate
models, time series,
trends, projections,
event frequency, ….
Information
Measures of
vulnerability and risk,
impacts, uncertainty
and confidence,
variations, …
Delivery of science
Focus
Knowledge
Understanding
consequences,
evaluating responses,
informing decision
making, …
Decision
Strategic, policy,
investment, new
research avenues,
response frameworks,
…
Societal and developmental
needs
Climate Science- Data Situation
African climate stations network
• There are about 1152
meteorological stations
in Africa (GTS)
• It is 8 times lower than
WMO recommendations
• Most of the stations are
confined along the roads,
cities or airports
• Satellite information is
widely used for weather
and climate monitoring
activities
Air quality monitoring
Not responded (18)
No air quality stations (27)
Have air quality stations (10)
Air quality or greenhouse gases
monitoring stations in Africa
Climate Science- Prediction Situation
Predictions and related data
and information
– Most of the prediction
information comes from the
developed country prediction
center (ECMWF, NCEP,..)
– Satellite information is quite
useful in real time data
monitoring and early warning
activities
• Modeling in Africa is at infant
stage
– Lack of trained man power
– Lack of computing facilities
Climate Research Gaps in Africa-Situation
Knowledge Gap in Climate
Science
– Scientific research is very
weak at all levels (NMHS,
RCC, Universities)
– Chronic lack of investment
in postgraduate education
and research infrastructure
– Less priority is given to
climate issues relative to
other pressing problems
The comparison of African Authors with
others (data from Washington et al)
ACPC Pilot Projects- Needs Assessment
Ethiopia, Rwanda and The Gambia
• Poor network of first class met stations
• Existing synoptic stations should be fully
operational
• Absence of upper-air stations
• Water flow measurement technology is not
up-to-date including collection and recording
• Current data transmission is by mail. There is
a need to automate the using real time data
collection platform such as SMS, GMS, and
GPRS needed.
• Database servers have capacity limitation.
Should be maintained by qualified
information technology personnel.
3. Project Interventions
•
Rescue meteorological data
•
Procure and establish upper air observing
station, automatic weather stations,
barometers, water level recorders with
telemetry, facilities, etc
•
Establish early warning system for selected
River basin and enhance flood forecasting
capacity at the Ministries
•
Provide training on hydro-meteorological
instrumentation, data base management and
information communication
•
Establish information systems to provide real
time climate and river flow information to
decision makers and a database
management system
•
Establish a map room to provide information
on the water resources for the general public
and a wide area network (WAN) between
central and regional offices
Other Examples of Science to Use
West Africa TB Aquifers Dialogue
• Analysis on scientific and technical
knowledge
• major environmental, social and
economic challenges for GW: CC, WS,
Irrigation
• Institutional, legal and political
framework for the basins
• A dialogue on national and
transboundary priorities
• Building and strengthening of capacities
•
•
•
•
Addressing the Climate Vulnerability of African
Infrastructure
Estimate the impacts of CC on the
performance of infrastructure
Develop and test a framework for the
planning and design of infrastructure
investment that can be “robust” under a
wide range of climate outcomes;
Enhance “investment readiness” of African
countries to use climate finance resources
geared at increasing their resilience to
climate variability and change
Irrigation, HP, Power Pools, Urban Water &
Roads
Senegal
Nile
Niger
Volta
Congo
Zambezi
Orange
•
•
•
•
Africa Climate Conference - ACC 2013
Process: Mapping African climate researchers and
institutions, established scientific steering committee
300+ of world’s best Africa climate researchers facing users
Task: Identify priorities to advance frontiers of African
climate research to address urgent societal needs, based
on:
• State of knowledge
• Current Gaps
• Concrete Proposals to overcome knowledge gaps and
deliver operational climate services
Over 700 abstracts received on call for papers
Africa-wide ACC2013 Steering Committee
Africa Climate Research For Development Agenda
Coordination
Platform
2. Improved
Observation
System and
Delivery
Scientific Steering
Committee
3. Scientific and
Institutional
Capacity
Development
1. Co-designed
multi-disciplinary climate
research
4. Mainstreaming
Cimate Services
and User
Intreface
Platform
Understanding underpinning
drivers of climate variability in
Africa
Proposed pan-African Research
Programs to address User-Driven
Priorities for Climate Research in
Africa
Towards Robust Climate change
projections over Africa
Integrated climate and impacts
research (across four priority
GFCS sectors- DRR sector, health,
water and agriculture)
1. Co-designed multi-disciplinary
research for improving climate
forecast skill and reliability,
across temporal and spatial
scales
(towards operational userrelevant seamless forecast
products)
Africa Sub-seasonal to Seasonal
Prediction Project
Multi-disciplinary validation of
forecast skill (including impacts
skill)
Proposed pan-African Research Programs to Address User-Driven
Priorities for Climate Research in Africa
2. Improved
Observation
System and
Delivery
Filling the Data GapMultidisciplinary data sets
(for both climate and sectorspecific vulnerability datasets)
Integrated Africa Climate Data
Information Systems
Future Risk Profiles for Major
African Cities
3. Scientific and
Institutional
Capacity
Development
4. Mainstreaming
Cimate Services
and User Intreface
Platform
Building African Capacity in Climate
Science & Communication for Linking
Climate Knowledge with Action
Framework for Co-producing
Climate Services and Integrating
Knowledge for Action
Nurturing African intellectual
leadership in Climate Research for
Development
Building the Interface: MultiStakeholder Platforms for
Dialogue
African research nodes of excellence
Co-producing climate knowledge
with local stakeholders – the End
of End-users
Mainstreaming training curricula for
a changing climate
From Global to Local: Linkages across
prediction centers for delivery of
operational climate services
Supporting Adaptation under
deep uncertainty- adaptation
scenarios addressing envelope of
uncertainty, across timescales
ClimDev-Africa
Thank you
The ACPC
[email protected]
Climate
Change
Meets
Policy
The Dialogue Questions
1. How do we strengthen the capacities of the National Hydrological and
Meteorological Services to enhance delivery of climate services?
– Delivery and utility of data and information for researchers, policy makers,
farmers, and others
2. How can we influence the discourse on climate change finance in order
to leverage resources for climate science, data and information needs?
– Sources of finance, access, and investment for climate science
3.
How do we enhance partnerships across institutions in integrating
climate services for development as part of their long term strategy?
– Institutional collaboration in data generation, planning and end use
4. What role can ClimDev-Africa play in popularizing the climate science
narrative in Africa?
– Key recommendations for ClimDev-Africa to enhance climate science delivery