Transcript Weather Forecast Demonstration Project A proposal to be

WWRP/Beijing 2008 Olympics
Forecast Demonstration Project
Implementation Plan (Draft)
XIAODING YU
China Meteorological Administration
September 2005
A WMO/WWRP-FDP will be conducted during
the period of Beijing 2008 Olympics
Focus: 0-6h Nowcast
Beijing 2008 Olympics: 8 to 24 August
Beijing
Position: 39.6 ° N, 116.7
°E
Population: 16 Millions
Area: 16800 km2
Topography
Mountains located to the
northeast, north and
west. The southeast is a
smooth plain sloping to
the Bohai Bay
Venues
The locations and areas of competition for Beijing 2008 Olympics Games
Climate （August 8-24, 1980—2001）
Elements
Value
Average Temperature（℃）
25.2
Average Maximum. temperature （℃）
29.9
Extreme Maximum. temperature (℃)
35.7
Average Minimum. temperature（℃）
21.1
Extreme Minimum. temperature (℃)
14.3
Average Relative humidity（%）
75
Maximum Relative Humidity(%)
99
Minimum Relative Humidity(%)
13
Average wind speed (m/s)
1.8
Precipitation probability（%）
Thunderstorm probability（%）
49.2
25.9
2004/07/10
Torrential rain hits Beijing
Goals
• demonstrate how operationally tested state-of-the-art
nowcast systems can provide an improved nowcast
service in Beijing area where weather is highly
impacted by complex topography.
• provide the weather service for the Olympics ;
• demonstrate the progress of nowcast techniques since
S2000 FDP;
• promote the application of advanced nowcast
techniques in China and other countries.
Participating Systems
• Beijing-ANC (BMB/China and NCAR/US)
• CARDS (Canada)
• GRAPES (CAMS/China)
• NIWOT(NCAR/US)
• STEPS (BOM/Australia)
• SWIRLS (HKO/HK/China)
• TIFS (BOM/ Australia)
• WDSS II (NSSL/US)
B08FDP Content
• Nowcasting
• FDP products dissemination
• Verification
• Social and Economic Impacts Assessment
• Training
Nowcast
For local thunderstorms:
0-1h nowcast of time- and space-specific storm tracks, intensities,
precipitation, and accompanying severe weather such as large hails, wind
gust and flash flooding. Forecasts updated every 10min. Resolution better
than 2km.
For larger scale precipitation system:
A mix of expert system based method and NWP model is encouraged
to provide 0-6h forecasts of precipitation, severe weather potential if possible.
For near storm environments:
High resolution (1-4km) NWP model is encouraged to provide 0-18h
prediction of storm environments or directly the meso- ß scale weather
systems, and associated precipitation, wind.
Data and Infrastructure Available
• Observational Network
• NWP Models
Observational Network
Radar: Two in Beijing, four in surrounding areas
Satellite: Chinese and Japanese, updated every 15min by 2008.
Radiosonde: twice daily to four times daily.
AWS: 80 now to 133 by 2008
Profiler: 3 by 2008
Ground-based GPS: 11 now, 14 by 2008.
Lightening locating systems : 1 now
Doppler Weather Radar in Beijing and Surrounding Areas
Tianjin
Hefei
Installed in 1999
Installed in 2001
Tianjin: 2002/07/01 Supercell
with hails of 5cm diameter
7月1日19：01
7月1日19：01
7月1日19：01
Radiosonde Network in
China
Beijing
Current observational network in Beijing area (2004)
Observational network in Beijing area by 2008
NWP models
NMC/CMA:
Global T213L31
BMB/CMA:
WRF with 3D-VAR (resolution 1-3km)
6 Time Table
2006.8: Preliminary trials of nowcast FDP;
2007.8: Second round trials of nowcast FDP;
2007.8: Training Course for direct users of FDP products;
2008.6-9: Formal B08FDP;
2008.10: International training workshop on nowcast