Transcript Slide 1

The Prospects for Nuclear New Build
Chris Savage
Nuclear Industry Association
CIC Economic and Policy Forum
24th June 2011
About the NIA
•
The voice of the UK
civil nuclear Industry
•
250 members across
whole nuclear sector
•
Members range from
utilities to small
enterprises
NIA with DECC Secretary of State Chris Huhne at
the Lib Dem Party Conference (2010)
NIA – membership diversity
•
•
•
•
•
•
Utilities, Contractors and vendors
Fuel cycle and decommissioning
Civil, process, design and
multidiscipline engineering
Project management, engineering,
safety case and consultancy
Equipment and component
manufacturers
Legal, financial, insurance, training
and agency services
Supply Chain Development
SC@nuclear
The Essential Guide
to the new build nuclear
supply chain
Stage One February 2011
UK Nuclear Industry
•
•
•
•
Pioneer in nuclear
generation
Full fuel cycle capability
Highly skilled workforce
Mature and flexible supply
chain
The UK electricity mix
•Coal - 28%
•Oil - 1%
Coal
•Nuclear – 18.5%
Oil
Gas
•Gas – 44.5%
Nuclear
Renewable
•Renewable – 3.5%
Hydro
Other
•Hydro - 1%
•Other – 3.5%
Source: DECC, 2009 Digest of UK Energy
Statistics
Nuclear’s global contribution
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
14% world electricity
32% EU electricity
436 plants operating
63 plants under construction
13 plants started in 2010
156 ordered or planned
332 proposed
Sizewell B, PWR Suffolk
Nuclear New Build Projections
About 230* new nuclear power plants
will be ordered by 2020
Market research
• North America
- EPRI reported that 64 GWe of new nuclear capacity
in the USA by 2030
- Government R&D funding for nuclear is being revived.
New plants order projections by 2020
(44)
N. America
(40)
China
• China
- Increase in nuclear capacity to 40GWe by 2020 and its
target for nuclear capacity in 2030 is 160GWe.
India
• India
- India expects to have 20GWe(30 units) nuclear
capacity on line by 2020
Russia
France
(10)
• Asia
- Japan : 12 units of new plant will be on line by 2020
- Korea : 10 units will be placed order by 2020
- Thailand : planning to 4 GWe nuclear capacity by 2020
- Vietnam and Indonesia are planning to adopt nuclear
options by early 2010s (7 units)
U.K.
(10)
• South Africa
- South Africa expects nuclear capacity to increase to
about 11 GWe by 2020
Japan
E. Europe
(30)
(12)
(40)
(11)
Asia
(11)
Africa
(11)
Korea
(10)
Total
(229)
* WNA reports and DOOSAN’s analysis
UK Nuclear Renaissance
•
Three new build consortia
•
Plans for 16GW of new plant
•
Typical plant £8bn capital spend
•
Multi-unit sites
•
5000 construction jobs per site at peak
•
First commissioning in 2018
Interim report on Fukushima by the
Chief Nuclear Inspector
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Rt.
Hon Chris Huhne MP: “Safety is and will continue to be our
number one priority. I am pleased that today’s report confirms that
the UK’s current safety arrangements are working.”
Chief Nuclear Inspector, Dr. Mike Weightman: “The
extreme natural events that preceded the accident at Fukushima –
the magnitude 9 earthquake and subsequent huge tsunami – are
not credible in the UK…But we are not complacent. No matter what
the differences are, and how high the standard of design and
subsequent operation of the nuclear facilities here in the UK, the
quest for improvement must never stop.”
Closure dates for AGR and PWR fleet
Hartlepool
Heysham 1
Hinkley Point B
Hunterston B
Dungeness B
Heysham 2
Torness
2014
2014
2016
2016
2018
2023
2023
Sizewell B
2035
Next Generation
Capacity Profile
Nuclear is low carbon
lea
r
Nu
c
Wi
nd
Hy
dro
Ma
rin
e
ic
vo
lta
Ph
oto
CC
S
Co
al
+
Ga
s
Co
al
Grams per kWhr
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Nuclear is affordable
Review of the costs of generation
Cost breakdown
Cost (p/kWh)
25.00
Carbon emissions
Standby energy
20.00
General overhead
Operation & maintenance
Fuel
15.00
Capital expenditure
10.00
Nuclear
5.00
Wave
Tidal
Wind
Turbine
(Offshore)
BFBC
OCGT
IGCC
Technology
Wind
Turbine
(Onshore)
CFBC
CCGT
Coal Plant
Nuclear
Parsons Brinkerhoff, May 2008
Where are we now…
•Justification: Completed October 2010
2008
W&D
FUNDING
•GDA: Conclusions, September 2011
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
INDICATIVE TIMELINE FOR
FIRST NEW NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS
FIRST FDPs
Generic activity
Project-specific
activity
GDA
Nuclear NPS
FIRST SITE
LICENSING
REGULATORY
HOLD POINTS AND PERMISSIONS
SSA
COMMERCIAL
OPERATION
FIRST
PLANNING
•Electricity Market Reform: White
Paper expected July 2011
IPC ready
CONSTRUCTION
2008
•Investment approval for first plant:
2012
2010
JUSTIFICATION
WHITE PAPER, JAN. 2008
•National Policy Statements: Approval
expected Summer 2011
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Nominated and approved sites
1. Bradwell, Essex, NDA
2. Hartlepool, Durham, EDF Energy
3. Heysham, Lancashire, EDF Energy
4. Hinkley Point, Somerset, EDF Energy
5. Oldbury, Gloucestershire, the NDA and Eon
6. Sellafield, Cumbria, NDA
7. Sizewell, Suffolk, EDF Energy
8. Wylfa, Anglesey, RWE npower and the NDA
New Build Plans for UK
EDF Energy UK
(EDF Energy/Centrica Joint Venture)
2 x 1600 MW EPRs for Hinkley
2 x 1600 MW EPRs for Sizewell
1st operating 2018, 4 by 2025
second tranche to follow
Horizon Nuclear Power Ltd
(RWE/EoN Joint Venture)
6000 MW operating by 2025
Technology to be decided in 2011
NuGeneration Ltd
(Iberdrola/GDF Suez/SSE Joint Venture)
Up to 3600MW operating by 2025
Technology to be decided
New build locations
AREVA EPR
•
PWR - 1650 Mwe
•
Being built in Finland and France
•
2 being built in China
•
Traditional layout & improved safety
& design
•
Seeking UK localisation
AP1000®
• Based on principles of simplicity and
standardisation
• Modular approach to construction
• 10 units under contract around the
world
• Of these, four are currently under
construction in China - first unit will be
on line in late 2013
Supply Chain Hierarchy
Schematic Order Timeline for UK
Nuclear New Build Programme
Next Generation
16GWe Scenario
Next Generation
Workforce for 16GWe New Build
www.nuclearsupplychain.com
www.niauk.org