Transcript Corporate Powerpoint Template

Portfolio of Risk Premia: A New
Approach to Diversification
March 20, 2009
Dan Stefek, Managing Director, Research
1
Overview
 A significant portion of investment return arises from exposure (beta) to
different sources of systematic risk and return
 There is a growing interest in implementing investment views through
exposures to these sources of return at low cost
 In this session, we:
 Review a range of risk premia that may be captured by rules-based indices
 Examine the return and risk profiles of these sources of return
 Illustrate their potential use in asset allocation
© 2009. All rights reserved.
2
Return Equals Betas Plus Alpha
Return
=
Traditional
+ Style Beta +
Beta
Strategy
Beta
+ Alpha
 Traditional Beta captures broad asset class risk premia
 Style Beta captures the systematic return to specific investment
dimensions
 Strategy Beta captures systematic return to trading strategies
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3
Examples of Sources of Systematic Risk and Return
 This framework can be expanded to include alternative asset classes
such as commodities and real estate, as well as additional strategies
such as volatility arbitrage
Asset Class
Equity
Traditional Beta
Broad Equity
Markets
Style Beta
Strategy Beta
Size
Merger Arbitrage
Value
Momentum
Credit Spread
Fixed Income
Broad FI Markets
High Yield Spread
Convertible
Arbitrage
Term Structure
Spread
Carry Trade
Currency
Momentum
Value
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4
Capturing Style Premia
 Historically, style and traditional betas were bundled together in
investment vehicles.
Value
Growth
Market
Market
 Recently, there has been interest in isolating exposures to individual
sources of return and capturing the return to that exposure in investment
offerings.
Value
Market
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Growth
-
Market
=
Value
-
Growth
5
Capturing Strategy Risk Premia: Convertible Arbitrage
 Define and maintain eligible universe
 Create trades
Convertible
-

Underlying
Stock
 Assume
 Borrowing costs of 25 bps
 Short Interest: Libor -25 bps
 Equally weight and rebalance monthly
© 2009. All rights reserved.
6
Ways of Capturing Risk Premia - An Illustration
Definition
Risk premium
Traditional beta
Equity exposure
Fixed income exposure
MSCI EAFE, MSCI Japan, MSCI USA, MSCI EM
Lehman US Aggregate Index
Long position
Short position
Style beta
Value
Size
Momentum
Credit Spread
High Yield Spread
Term Spread
MSCI World Value
AC World Small Cap
Simulated MSCI World Momentum
Lehman US Agg. Corporate (AAA)
ML High Yield US Corporate
SB US Gov 10+ years
MSCI World Growth
AC World Large Cap
MSCI World
Lehman US Agg. Government
ML High Quality US Corporate
SB US Gov Bond 1-3 years
Strategy beta
Merger Arbitrage
Convertible Arbitrage
Carry Trade
Currency Value
Currency Momentum
Targets
Convertible Bond
3 highest interest rate G10 currencies
3 most undervalued G10 currencies
3 best performing G10 currencies
Acquirers
Underlying stock
3 lowest interest rate G10 currencies
3 most overvalued G10 currencies
3 worst performing G10 currencies
 For the purposes of illustration, style and strategy indices are constructed
as simple combinations of long and short positions and cash
© 2009. All rights reserved.
7
Risk and Return Profiles of Selected Risk Premia
Monthly data from May 1995 through October 2008
* MSCI HFI Merger Arbitrage before 2003, afterwards as simulated Merger Arbitrage index
© 2009. All rights reserved.
** MSCI HFI Convertible Arbitrage before 2003, afterwards as simulated Convertible Arbitrage index
*** Merrill Lynch Domestic Master follows the US dollar denominated investment grade Public
Corporate and Government Debt
8
Correlations with Traditional Asset Classes
 Correlations of style and strategy premia – May 1995 through October 2008
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9
Correlations with Traditional Asset Classes
 Returns from May 1995 through October 2008
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10
Asset Allocation – Case Study

To illustrate a possible use of strategy and style betas, we compare two asset allocation
schemes

A traditional 60/40 equity-bond mix.

A simple equally-weighted mix of strategy and style indices rebalanced monthly.
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
60/40 Index
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Risk Premia Index
11
Performance During Extreme Months
Note: Excess Returns for the month
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12
Summary
 The use of risk premia as diversifying building blocks of return
holds promise
 We’ve scratched the surface
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13
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© 2009 MSCI Barra. All rights reserved.
© 2009. All rights reserved.
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