Transcript Global Nutrition and Humanitarian Issues

Global Nutrition and
Humanitarian Issues
Will Masters
8 November 2010
Global Nutrition and Humanitarian Issues:
The agenda ahead
• World food price spikes and trends
– Another food crisis?
– The investor’s-eye view
• Regional productivity & demographic conditions
– Technology versus climate change
– Population growth and urbanization
• Country-level nutrition outcomes
– Successes (and failures) around the world
• Friedman school responses
World food price spikes and trends:
Another food crisis?
Monthly average
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan. 2000-Oct. 2010
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System price data
(http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool), Nov. 7, 2010. All are monthly
export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US No. 2 Hard Red
Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.
World food price spikes and trends:
The investor’s-eye view
Food commodities, equities and the dollar, Mar. 2nd 2007-Nov. 5th 2010
Food commodities
(DB Agriculture index)
US dollars
(per unit of major currencies)
US equities
(S&P 500 index)
Source: Google Finance, downloaded Nov.7, 2010. Cost of food is shown by the DB Agriculture Index
(DBA), which tracks US dollar prices for near-term futures contracts on nine major commodities. Value of
the US dollar is shown by the DB Short US Dollar Futures Index (UDN), which tracks the price of selling
US dollars to buy a basket of six major currencies. The S&P 500 index is a value-weighted sum of major
publicly-traded corporations on U.S. stock markets.
Regional productivity & demographic conditions:
Technology versus climate change
Africa’s green revolution finally arrives?
USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2010
4.5
4.0
Rest-of-World
World
3.5
Southeast Asia
3.0
South Asia
2.5
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline),
downloaded 7 Nov 2010. Results shown are each region’s total production per
harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.
Regional productivity & demographic conditions:
Population growth and urbanization
Billions
10
World (total)
2.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.8
8
Total
1.6
Total
7
Urban
1.4
Urban
1.2
2010
Rural
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision ,
released April 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010.
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1970
0.0
2050
0
2040
0.2
2030
1
2020
0.4
2000
2
1990
0.6
1980
3
1970
0.8
1960
4
1950
2010
1.0
1960
Rural
5
1950
6
1980
9
2010
Billions
Slowing rural population growth allows for greater food sales:
UN Population Projections estimates of urban and rural population, 1950-2050
Country-level nutrition outcomes:
Success is possible!
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010,
at http://www.unscn.org.
Country-level nutrition outcomes:
Success (and failures) in East Africa
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010,
at http://www.unscn.org.
Country-level nutrition outcomes:
Failures (and successes) in W. &S. Africa
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010,
at http://www.unscn.org.
Friedman School Responses
• Learning from cross-country data
– Opportunities in Africa
• Learning from successful interventions
– Opportunities for nutrition programming
• Learning from students and alumni
– Opportunities for the school