Transcript Addressing the Disparity between Climate Models and

Is the reported global surface
warming of 1978 to 1997 real?
Conference on Global and Regional
Climate Variability
Santa Fe, NM
Oct 31-Nov 4, 2011
(Prof.) S. Fred Singer
University of Virginia/ SEPP
<[email protected]>
Three Fundamental Issues: in
Climate science, Economics, Policy
• 1. Is climate change of the 20th century
human-caused (anthropogenic GW -- AGW)?
• 2. If AGW is significant, is a future warmer
climate (and higher CO2 level) good or bad ?
• 3. If a future warming is calamitous, can we
really do something about it – technically and
economically? Can we lower atmospheric
CO2 levels: phase out fossil fuels, capture &
sequester CO2, make solar and wind power
reliable and cheap, produce low-cost biofuels?
IPCC reports cannot show
evidence in support of AGW
• IPCC-1 [1990] claimed CO2- temp correlation.
But no warming seen 1940-75 or since 2002
• IPCC-2 [1996] claimed model-obs ‘fingerprints’
agreed. But claim based on doctored graphs.
• IPCC-3 [2001] claimed (failed) ‘Hockeystick’ as
proof. But 20th cy warming was not unusual.
• IPCC-4 [2007] claimed post-1978 warming as
proof of AGW. *But such warming is not real
th
20
Sfc Warmings reported for
cy:
1910-40 is real, but not 1978-2000
• Sfc Warming of 1910-40 confirmed by proxies
• Warming of 1978-2000, used by IPCC to claim
AGW – shown by PhysicsToday and by BEST,
but not seen by independent datasets:
– Atmospheric data (satellites, radiosondes)
• Disparity between GH models and Observations
– Ocean data (SST, NMAT, Heat Content-OHC)
– Proxy data (tree rings, ice cores, ocean/lake
sediments, stalagmites, etc)
__________________________
Why the Disparity: Land-Sfc temp vs All other data
a.
b.
BEST (Berkeley Earth Sfc Temp):
• Uses (surface) temp data from weatherstation thermometers, like CRU, GISS, NCDC
• Hence finds similar global sfc trends, but is
fully documented and transparent
• BEST used only land-based data – so far
• One-third of BEST stations show cooling
• 70% of US stations are poorly sited
• Did station “demographics” change between
1970-2000? UHI? Airports? Other problems?
• Has not performed geographic decomposition
Reported sfc warmings: 1910-40 is
real; 1978-2000 is not. Evidence:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
MSU-Satellites show no atmospheric warming
Balloon-radiosondes: little atm. warming trend
Missing amplification “puzzle” [Santer 2005]
Solar activity “paradox” [Lockwood 2007]
NRC-NAS [2000] cannot reconcile sfc-atm temp
SST trend – an artifact of instrumentation?
OHC: data show no appreciable warming
Proxy data show no warming. Hockeystick hides
“divergence” post-1978: “Mike’s Nature trick”?
Earlier indications of disparity
between sfc and troposphere temp
• [from HTCS 1997]: In tropics, sfc data show
pos trend while satellite temp show neg trend
• Suspected causes: Urban Heat Island effect;
land use changes; changes in sampling
population (latitude, altitude, fraction of
airports) between 1970 and 2000
Disparity between tropical sfc and atm
trends, as already indicated by data in 1997
A more detailed view of the disparity of trends (K/dec):
Douglass, Knox, Pearson, Singer IJC 2007
Four “puzzles” –easily solved
• Disparity between GH models and sfc
temperatures (1970-2000): IPCC-4 Fig.9.5-b
• Santer [Science 2005]: Lack of “amplification”
for decadal trends, but not short-term ones
• NAS-NRC [2000] failed to “reconcile” sfc with
tropospheric trends (balloons and satellites)
• Lockwood & Frohlich [2007] claim disparity
between solar data and a sfc warming trend
IPCC-AR4 Conclusion on AGW:
Just a “curve-fitting” exercise?
• “Most of the observed increase in global average
[surface] temperatures since the mid-20th century is
very likely [90 to 99% certain] due to the observed
increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.” [Ref:
IPCC-AR4 [2007], Summary for Policymakers, page 10]
--------------------------------------------------
• IPCC-AR4 Fig 9.5b (p.684) assigns the difference
between “naturally-caused” (blue) and “observed”
(black line) warming to GHG. [Hence, in the absence
of such a difference (i.e., absence of post-1978
warming), the human contribution would be ~zero]
Amplification (Scaling Ratio) of Surface Warming Trend
Fig. 3. Atmospheric profiles of temp scaling ratios in models, theory, and radiosonde data.
B D Santer et al. Science 2005;309:1551-1556
NAS-NRC Report [2000]:
“Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change”
• The NAS-NRC panel (chaired by Prof J M Wallace) failed
to “reconcile” the disparity in temperature trends
between SURFACE and TROPOSPHERE --as measured
by balloon-borne radiosondes and also by independent
Satellite Microwave Sounding Units (MSU).
• The simplest explanation would be to discard the
reported sfc warming trends. Yet the panel preferred
the opposite conclusion, disregarding also the “moist
adiabatic” adjustment to the lapse rate.
Solar “Paradox” of Lockwood-Fröhlich
• “There is considerable evidence for solar influence on
the Earth's pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well
have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in
the first half of the last century. Here we show that
over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that
could have had an influence on the Earth's climate
have been in the opposite direction to that required to
explain the observed rise in global mean
temperatures.” [emphasis added] [Ref: ProcRoySoc 2007]
• Comment: The absence of this reported post-1978
surface warming explains the (artificial) paradox
Be-10 – proxy for Cosmic Rays and
Solar Activity
Ocean data show no significant
warming during 1978-1997
• Troposphere temp same over land and ocean
• NMAT results disagree with SST trends
• SST results: an artifact of increasing buoy data
• Problem: Where does downwelling IR energy go after
absorption in sea surface “skin”?
• Proxy data (corals) show no warming
• Ocean Heat Content (OHC) shows no increase
– Problem: Inconsistencies in downward energy
transfer from “Mixed layer” to deep ocean
(Ocean-minus-Land) Atm Temp
Difference: from MSU-Tropics-LT
0.5
0.4
0.3
Temperature
0.2
0.1
0
1
21
41
61
81
101
121
141
161
181
201
221
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
Month, 1978 to 2008
241
261
281
301
UK Met Office Historic Marine Air
Temperature--MOHMAT/HadMAT
Night-time Marine Air Temp (NMAT) is warming less
rapidly than average SST during 1978-1997
• NMAT 1990 temp is about equal to its 1940 value
• Indicates a large diurnal range of SST, with day-time
warming trend due to increasing drifter buoy data
• Thus reported SST warming trend may be an artifact
of instrumentation; not a GH effect
•
•
•
Christy, JR, et al. 2001. Differential trends in tropical SST and atmospheric
temp [NMAT] since 1979. GRL 28(1), 183–186, doi:10.1029/2000GL011167.
Trends and Variations in South Pacific Island and Ocean Surface
Temperature, Folland CK, et al. 2003 J. Climate 16(17), 2859-2874.
Global analyses of SST, sea ice, and NMAT, Rayner NA, et al. JGR 108,
doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003
1
0.8
Global Average Anomalies
0.6
Tropical Average Anomalies
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1900
1920
1940
1960
5 year running average. Source: John Kennedy
1980
2000
Buoys introduce an Artificial Trend
• The claimed SST warming may be close to zero
and an artifact of the measurements that
combine ship and buoy data. We base this
assertion on satellite and independent
radiosonde data, on NMAT data, as well as on
ocean heat content (OHC) data. Observations
of late 20th century Sea Level Rise (SLR) and of
solar activity changes do not support any
significant global SST warming -- nor do proxy
data (corals).
Temperature Data from Buoys Rose
from Zero (1980) to 90% (2010),
creating an artificial warming trend
• The contribution from drifter buoys rose almost
linearly from 0% in 1980 to 72% in 2010. During the
same interval, moored buoys rose from 0% to 18%
• Ref: Composition of ICOADSv2.5.1 Annual number of sea surface
temperature observations per year by platform type, expressed as a
fraction of total number of observations. [Figure 2 of Effects of
instrumentation changes on sea surface temperature measured in situ
• Elizabeth C. Kent, et al. online: 17 MAY 2010. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.55.
• in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
• Volume 1, Issue 5, pages 718–728, September/October 2010
Composition of ICOADSv2.5. (a) Annual number of sea surface
temperature observations per year by platform type. (b) As (a) but
expressed as a fraction of total number of observations. [For the period
centered on around 1900, most of the ‘unknown or other’ observations
are of unknown source, and after 1962 almost all have come from
oceanographic sources.]
Source: Kent, Elizabeth et al. 2010. “Effects of instrumentation changes
on sea surface temperature measured in situ”. Wiley Interdisciplinary
Reviews: Climate Change. Vol 1(5) Sept/Oct 2010
SUN
IR
T + dT
BUOY
Engine Inlet
SHIP
Ocean Heat Content
Proxy data of temperatures
provide independent confirmation
• Tree ring data (shown in HTCS 1997) confirm
1910-40 warming but not a 1978-1997 wmg
• Ice core data (Dahl-Jensen et al. Science 1998)
– “Temperature cools between 1940 and 1995.”
• Assorted proxies (Ljungqvist 2011)
• Awaiting release of suppressed post-1978
Hockeystick’s multi-proxy temperature data
Fig. 16. The climate record as deduced from the width of tree rings. Compared are the ring-width chronology (solid line)
and the reconstruction of Arctic annual temperature anomalies (dashed line) [Jacoby et al. 1996, reprinted with
permission, (c) American Association for the Advancement of Science]. Note the sharp increase between 1880 and
1940.
(see posting of May 9, 2008 in http://climateaudit.org for
further discussion of IPCC 1990)
IPCC 1990
From H. H. Lamb,
first Director of
CRU at EAU
IPCC 2001
From M. Mann,
the celebrated
hockey stick!
Local warming can distort global
trends
• Example: Urban Heat Island effect in Calif, tied
to population density, affects temp levels and
trends; subsequent selection of “best”
stations may favor global warming trend
• Drastic changes in number of stations in 20th
cy, accompanied by “demographic” changes of
the samples; could produce artificial trends.
• E.g., from 1970 to 2000 airport stations
increased globally from 40% to 80%
Urban Heat Island Effect
Temperature Trends at 107 Californian Stations 1909 to 1994
Stratified by 1990 population of the county where station is located
Temperature in degF
(A) Large Counties:
More than 1 million people
Average 29 stations
(B) Midsized Counties:
100,000 to 1 million people
Average 51 stations
(C) Small Counties:
Less than 100,000 people
Average 27 stations
Fig. 17. Distribution of temperature trends for California weather stations. The arrows indicate the stations selected by GISS for a
global temperature compilation [Christy and Goodridge 1995].
NUMBERS OF WEATHER STATIONS AND GRID BOXES
4000
Source: NOAA Data - ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2
3500
3000
Number of
Stations
Stations
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1970
Number of
Stations at
Airports
1975
1980
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
13
Dulles - IAD
Temperature °C
12
11
Denver - DEN
10
9
8
1970
O'Hare - ORD
1980 Year
1990
11yr weighted mean
Source:ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2
2000
Conclusions on 1978-97 Temp
• Little global surface warming since 1940 –
contra IPCC – as shown by abundant evidence
• This removes support for IPCC-claimed AGW
• Reported sfc warming (1978-1997) likely due
to biased selection of weather-station data
• Suppressed (post-1978) Hockeystick proxy
data may supply key evidence; we need to
examine them.
Cause of GH model-Obs Disparity:
Neg. Feedback or CO2 Saturation?
• CO2 Saturation – calculable from spectroscopy
• Neg Feedback: Three basic possibilities to explain
model-obs disparity – with data deciding:
1. Enhanced evaporation & low-level cloudiness
2. “Iris Effect” (Lindzen): reduction in cirrus layer
3. Reduced Upper Troposph Water Vapor (UTWV)
– Due to Enhanced Hadley Circulation and Subsidence
(Ellsaesser); Due to local subsidence – between cloud
tops (Wm Gray); Due to detrainment (Lindzen)
So what is causing climate change?
• Internal: Atmosphere-ocean oscillations:
• PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); NAO (North
Atlantic Oscill; Arctic Oscill; etc
• External: Solar variability:
– UV variations affecting stratospheric ozone and
tropospheric circulation (Haigh)
– Solar-wind-interplanetary magnetic field, affecting
cosmic rays and cloud albedo (Svensmark, Tinsley)
Pacific Decadal Oscillator (PDO)
30 year cycles or warming and cooling
Warm Cycle
Cold Cycle
Stalagmite Records in Oman
– a Proxy for Solar Activity
18O – a Proxy for Temperature
14C
The stalagmite record shows
a remarkably close
correlation between 14C and
18O over a period of more
than 3,000 years.
Thus, a strong association
exists between solar activity
and temperature.
 One Century Duration!
Neff et al. (2001)