Transcript EMG PowerPoint Template

Impact of Power Rationing
On the Tanzanian Economy
20 April 2006
Quantification of Impact
 Based on TANESCO 1980 study
 Cost of “un-served” energy is US$1.0 per kWh
 A 2004 study result was US$2.0 per kWh
 Reflecting increased electricity use in the
economy
Source: World Bank - Tanzania
2
World Bank Shortage Estimate
Unserved Energy
90
80
70
M kWh
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006
Source: World Bank - Tanzania
3
World Bank Shortage Estimate
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
TOTAL
Unserved
Energy
(Million kWh}
5
42
65
28
13
31
44
56
66
77
69
63
559
Source: World Bank - Tanzania
4
US$ Million
Estimated Cost to the Economy
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
Mar
May
US$1.1 per kWh
Jul
Sep
Nov
US$2.0 per kWh
Source: World Bank - Tanzania
5
Estimated Cost to the Economy
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
TOTAL
Cost to
Economy
assuming
U$1.1/kWh
(US$mil)
5.5
46.2
71.5
30.8
14.3
34.1
48.4
61.6
72.6
84.7
75.9
69.3
614.9
Cost to
Economy
assuming
U$2/kWh
(US$Mil )
10
84
130
56
26
62
88
112
132
154
138
126
1,118.00
Source: World Bank - Tanzania
6
Impact on Estimated GDP
 Tanzania GDP for 2006 estimated at
$614.9
million without power rationing
 5% reduction - assuming cost impact of US$1.1
per un-served kWh
 9% reduction – assuming cost impact of US$2.0
per un-served kWh
Source: World Bank - Tanzania
7