Transcript Cogito Ergo Sum (iThink Therefore iAm)

WMST 245
INNOVATIONS – AND THEIR ADOPTION
Cogito Ergo Sum (iThink Therefore iAm)
iPod Advertisement 2004, featuring U2 performing “Vertigo”
iPod Advertisement May 2006
iPod Advertisement 2008
iPod Sales, Quarterly 2001-2007
iPod Sales – Total, 2001-2007
Quarterly iPod Sales Figures
iPods Sold
iPods Sold
Date
(This Quarter)
(Total)
12/31/2001
125,000
125,000
3/31/2002
57,000
182,000
6/30/2002
54,000
236,000
9/30/2002
145,000
381,000
12/31/2002
219,000
600,000
3/31/2003
80,000
680,000
6/30/2003
304,000
984,000
9/30/2003
336,000
1,320,000
12/31/2003
733,000
2,053,000
3/31/2004
807,000
2,860,000
6/30/2004
860,000
3,720,000
9/30/2004
2,016,000
5,736,000
12/31/2004
4,500,000
10,236,000
3/31/2005
5,311,000
15,547,000
6/30/2005
6,155,000
21,702,000
9/30/2005
6,451,000
28,153,000
12/31/2005
14,043,000
42,196,000
3/31/2006
8,526,000
50,722,000
6/30/2006
8,111,000
58,833,000
9/30/2006
8,729,000
67,562,000
12/31/2006
21,066,000
88,628,000
3/31/2007
10,549,000
99,177,000
6/30/2007
9,815,000
108,992,000
9/30/2007
10,200,000
119,192,000
12/31/2007
22,121,000
141,313,000
3/31/2008
10,644,000
151,957,000
6/30/2008
11,011,000
162,968,000
9/30/2008
11,052,000
174,020,000
12/31/2008
22,727,000
196,747,000
3/31/2009
11,013,000
207,760,000
6/30/2009
10,215,000
217,975,000
9/30/2009
10,177,000
228,152,000
12/31/2009
20,970,000
249,122,000
iPod Sales
“Today Apple announced that after 5 years of selling ipods, they’ve sold 100
million on them. The ipod has dethroned Sony’s Walkman as “the fastest selling
music player in history.” Poor Walkman.” Posted April 9, 2007
Footnote: Sony sold 150 million Walkmans from 1979 to 1995, and possibly 340 million to date
The Next Generation - iPhones
The Third Generation - iPads
Classical Adoption Curve for an Innovation
Everett Rogers (1962) “Diffusion of Innovations”
Adoption of Innovations by Different Groups of People
Innovators: (a) venturesome - desire for the rash, the daring, and the risky; (b) control of
substantial financial resources to absorb possible loss from an unprofitable innovation; (c) ability
to understand and apply complex technical knowledge; (d) ability to cope with a high degree of
uncertainty.
Early Adopters: (a) integrated part of the local social system; (b) greatest degree of opinion
leadership in most systems; (c) serve as role model for other members or society; (d) respected by
peers; (e) successful.
Early Majority: (a) interact frequently with peers; (b) seldom hold positions of opinion
leadership; (c) one-third of the members of a system, making the early majority the largest
category; (d) deliberate before adopting a new idea.
Late Majority:
(a) one-third of the members of a system; (b) pressure from peers; (c)
economic necessity; (d) skeptical; (e) cautious.
Laggards:
(a) possess no opinion leadership; (b) isolates; (c) point of reference in the past; (d)
suspicious of innovations; (e) innovation-decision process is lengthy; (f) resources are limited.
Laggards are very set in their ways, and
will only adopt an innovation when it has
become mainstream i.e. standard practice
in an organisation
Technology Adoption?
WOMEN FARMERS AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION
• Women lack secure land tenure and titles to land
• Women lack access to finance (credit) and inputs (seeds, fertilizer, water,
tools)
• Technologies may not be designed for women’s farming systems
• Women may be illiterate or have limited education
• Women may lack access to media of extension methods, such as radio
• Extension agents may ignore women farmers, or not interact well with them
• Extension agents may not communicate well in the local language
• The extension service may not be trained to work with groups, which work
best for women farmers
• In some cultures, male extensions agents are not permitted to talk to women
farmers
• There may be very small numbers of women extension agents, who
concentrate on home economics rather than farm management
• Problems faced by women farmers may not be communicated to research
• There may be very small numbers of women scientists
THE 20TH CENTURY WAS THE MOST
REMARKABLE IN THE HISTORY OF
AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASED
HUGELY DUE TO:
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MORE FERTILIZER
NEW HIGH YIELDING CROP VARIETIES
INVESTMENTS IN IRRIGATION
BETTER CROP PROTECTION
MECHANIZATION
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASED
IN THE 20TH CENTURY
• 1930-1980 MAIZE YIELDS QUADRUPLED IN THE USA
• 1950-1986 WHEAT YIELDS TRIPLED IN THE WORLD
(770 TO 2,160 KG/HA)
• 1965-1980 RICE PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD GREW
AT 3.2 PERCENT PER YEAR
1985-2020 WE NEED CEREAL YIELDS TO INCREASE BY
MORE THAN 56 PERCENT [1.3 % P.A.] TO FEED A
WORLD POPULATION PROJECTED AT 7.8 BILLION.
CAN WE DO IT?
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
INCREASED IN THE 20TH CENTURY
World Average Crop Yields (metric tons per hectare)
Crop
1961
1970
1980
1990
2000
Maize
Rice (Paddy)
Wheat
Sorghum
Lentils
1.94
1.87
1.09
0.89
0.53
2.35
2.38
1.49
1.13
0.57
3.16
2.75
1.86
1.30
0.59
3.68
3.53
2.56
1.36
0.80
4.27
3.90
2.74
1.38
0.89
%
incr.
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109
151
55
68
CEREAL PRODUCTION INCREASED ALMOST THREE TIMES
LAND PLANTED TO CEREALS STAYED THE SAME
CEREAL PRODUCTION INCREASED MORE THAN POPULATION
Year
1961
2006
% incr.
Cereal Area Cereal Yield Cereal Production World Population
(million ha) (tons/ha)
(million tons)
(billions)
648
674
4
1.35
3.30
144
877
2,221
153
3.082
6.525
112
TWO BIG THINGS HAPPENED IN AGRICULTURE
IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY
PLANT NUTRITION DISCOVERIES LED TO A HUGE
FERTILIZER INDUSTRY:
1900 2 MILLION TONS
1939 9 MILLION TONS
1955 21 MILLION TONS
1965 31 MILLION TONS
1975 90 MILLION TONS
2005 157 MILLION TONS
MENDEL’S LAWS OF GENETICS WERE REDISCOVERED
ABOUT 1900 BY:
•
HUGO DE VRIES (HOLLAND)
•
CARL CORRENS (GERMANY)
•
ERICH VON TSCHERMAK-SEYSENEGG (AUSTRIA)
EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (1):
Gregor Johann Mendel (1822-1884)
EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (2):
Hugo de Vries (1848-1935)
EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (3):
Carl Correns (1864-1933)
EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (4):
Erich von Tschermak-Seysenegg (1871-1962)
EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (5):
Barbara McClintock (1902-1992) First genetic map for maize
Nobel Prize for Medicine or Physiology for discovery of genetic transposition
THE BIG GAINS IN SCIENTIFIC
AGRICULTURE CAME AFTER 1945 (WW II)
IN JAPAN, RICE YIELDS INCREASED BY:
15 % 1550-1720 (MORE SYSTEMATIC IRRIGATION)
50 % 1721-1944 (BEGINNINGS OF CROP BREEDING)
100 % 1945-1985 (MORE BREEDING, HEAVY FERTILIZER USE,
PLANT PROTECTION CHEMICALS)
IN SPITE OF EVIDENCE FROM THE HIGH INCOME
COUNTRIES, PEOPLE REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
THE LOW INCOME COUNTRIES (PADDOCK BROS.; PAUL
EHRLICH)
THE GREEN REVOLUTION SWEPT IN MID TO LATE 1960s
THE GREEN REVOLUTION
“HISTORY RECORDS NO INCREASE IN FOOD
PRODUCTION THAT WAS REMOTELY
COMPARABLE IN SCALE, SPEED, SPREAD AND
DURATION” – LIPTON & LONGHURST (1989)
TERM “GREEN REVOLUTION” COINED BY
WILLIAM S. GAUD (Former Administrator of USAID)
1950-1985 INCREASED PRODUCTION OF CEREALS
FROM:
AREA (Multiple cropping)(25%); VARIETIES (23%);
FERTILIZER (33%); IRRIGATION (8%); OTHER
FACTORS (11%)
A “FATHER” OF THE GREEN REVOLUTION:
Norman Borlaug (1914- 2009), Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, 1970
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Yields (metric tons per hectare)
Progress in a Food Innovation
Worldwide Cereal Yield, 1961-1999
3
2.8
2.6
Trend
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
Slowing Progress in a Food Innovation
Average Growth Rates in Cereal Yields 1966-1999
4.5
4
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
-0.5
Average Grow th Rates in Yields
f or Previous 5 Years
Log. (Average Grow th Rates in
Yields f or Previous 5 Years)
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90
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72
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70
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68
0
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66
Annual Rate of Growth (%)
3.5
INNOVATIONS IN THE iPOD
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Flash memory
Click wheel (user interface)
Music store
Software (and compatibility)
Sound quality
Looks (font face)
Batteries & chargers
Earphones
INNOVATIONS IN WHEAT
• Dwarf stature – new architecture
• Less susceptible to lodging
• Higher harvest index – ratio of grain
to straw/leaves
• Photoperiod insensitivity
• Great tillering ability
• Grain dormancy in the head
• Short duration
• Responsive to nutrients
• Resistant to pests & diseases
PIETER BRUEGHELTHE ELDER
The Harvesters (1565) – Note height of wheat
COLLECTING MODERN WHEAT HEAD SAMPLES - Note height of wheat
Source: USDA www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=13779
LESSONS FROM THE GREEN REVOLUTION
• CROP YIELDS CAN GO HIGHER YET (range 5 to 25
tons/ha grain equivalent cf 2.75 tons on our average farm)
• ONCE HIGHER YIELDS ATTAINED, NEEDS
MUCH HIGHER FOR MAINTENANCE RESEARCH
• MOST GAINS FROM INCREASED HARVEST
INDEX RATHER THAN INCREASED BIOMASS
• INVESTMENTS IN PLANT BREEDING & CROP
IMPROVEMENT HAVE HIGH RATES OF RETURN
• FUTURE GAINS: COMBINATION OF BREEDING
& BETTER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT