Transcript Calculating Emissions Within a Travel Demand Model Using

Calculating Emissions Within a Travel Demand
Model Using MOVES Emissions Rates
Florida Department of Transportation
Air Quality Postprocessor Framework
presented to
TRB Planning Applications Conference
presented by
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Keli P. Kemp, AICP
May 9, 2011
Transportation leadership you can trust.
Acknowledgements
Diana Fields & Vidya Mysore
Florida Department of Transportation
Systems Planning Office
Tallahassee, FL
David Kall, Sheldon Harrison, Kazi Ullah
Cambridge Systematics
Atlanta, GA; Tallahassee, FL; & Cambridge, MA
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Overview
Overview of Project
MOVES Inventory Mode v. Emissions Rate Mode
Interagency Coordination
FSUTMS Air Quality Postprocessor Framework
Emission Reduction Strategies
Lessons Learned
Implementation
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Overview of Project
Need:
» EPA’s new 8-hour ozone standards
» Wide-spread impact on Florida
» Florida’s updated platform no longer included an emissions
calculation process
» EPA’s release of MOVES
Purpose:
» Bridge the gap between the TDM and MOVES
» Automatically calculate emissions within TDM
» Use for conformity determinations by NAAs and scenario
analysis
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Overview of Project
Geography
FDOT District 3
Northwest
Florida Regional
Planning Model
Escambia, Santa
Rosa, & Bay
Counties
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Overview of Project
What is MOVES?
Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES)
U.S. EPA’s model for estimating emissions from vehicles
Replaces previous model, MOBILE6.2
Required for State Implementation Plan (SIP) and
transportation conformity emissions inventories
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Overview of Project
What is the FSUTMS Air Quality Postprocessor?
A module within Florida Standard Urbanized Transportation
Model Structure (FSUTMS)/Cube Voyager that calculates
emissions
Calculates:
» Emissions related to Ozone formation
• Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)
• Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)
» Emissions related to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) formation
• Carbon Dioxide Equivalents (CO2eq)
• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Users:
» Ozone NAAs for conformity
» Areas
interested in measuring GHG emissions
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Interagency Consultation
Overview of Project
Schedule
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April 2009: EPA
Released Draft
MOVES2009
Began development of
FSUTMS Air Quality
Postprocessor (AQPP)
December 2009:
EPA Released MOVES
2010
August 2010: EPA
Released MOVES
2010a
July 2010: Conducted
AQPP webinar for
FDOT District 3
Incorporated nonrunning emissions and
vehicle type
implications
Updated AQPP to
reflect MOVES 2010a
(new car and light
truck energy and GHG
rates)
Documented
emissions calculation
process
December 2010:
Completed AQPP
Framework
MOVES Inventory v. Rate Mode
Two Options for Applying MOVES
Option 1: MOVES as an Emissions
Inventory Model
» Requires running of MOVES every
time the travel demand model is
modified
Travel
Demand
Model
MOVES
MOVES
Travel
Demand
Model
» Uses output loaded network
from travel demand model
Option 2: MOVES as an Emissions
Rates Model
» Significantly reduces frequency of
MOVES runs
» Uses emissions rates from
MOVES as inputs into travel
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demand
model
MOVES Inventory v. Rate Mode
Benefits of the FSUTMS AQPP
Streamlines Calculation of Emissions
» Minimizes number of times needed to run MOVES
» Shorter run times (TDM v. MOVES)
» Outputs summary tables in .csv and .dbf format
Standardized approach
» Reduces human error
» Facilitates transferability
» Streamlines interagency consultation process
Outputs link level running emissions that can be mapped
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MOVES Inventory v. Rate Mode
FSUTMS AQPP Outputs
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Interagency Coordination
Florida Department of Transportation
» Systems Planning Office Modeling Section
» Office of Policy Planning
» Public Transportation Office
» Transportation Statistics Office
» District 3
Florida Department of Environmental Protection
Federal Highway Administration, Florida Division
West Florida Regional Planning Council (staffs 3 MPOs)
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Interagency Coordination
Data Requirements for County Data Manager
Likely Use Local VMT Population
with MOVES National Default
Vehicle Type Ratios
No National Defaults
Available in MOVES (Must
Use Travel Demand Model
or HPMS Data)
National Defaults
Available in
MOVES (Obtain
ICC Approval to
Use National
Defaults)
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AQPP
Framework Uses
MOVES National
Defaults
Interagency Coordination
Vehicle Type VMT
Motorcycles
Motorcycles
Passenger Cars
Passenger Cars
Passenger Trucks
Light Trucks
Light Commercial Trucks
Intercity Buses
Buses
Passenger Trips
Transit Buses
School Buses
Refuse Trucks
Single Unit
Trucks
MOVES
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Single Unit Long-Haul Trucks
Motor Homes
Model
HPMS
Single Unit Short-Haul Trucks
Combination
Trucks
Combination Short-Haul Trucks
Combination Long-Haul Trucks
Emissions Modeling Process
Simplified Structure
Run MOVES
Reformat
Emission Factors
Prepare Model
Links
Calculate and
Summarize
Emissions
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Emissions Modeling Process
Step 1: Run MOVES in Emissions Rate Mode
Run MOVES
Emissions rates for
each analysis year
Calculate Emissions Rates
3-County
Emission Rates
(run for each
individual
county1 )
Ozone (NOx ,
VOCs)
(run as average
summer day)
NOx & VOC
Running Hourly
Emission Rates by MOVES
Source (Vehicle) Type2
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NOx & VOC
Nonrunning Hourly
Emission Rates by MOVES
Source (Vehicle) Type 3, 4
GHG (CO2 eq)
(run as average
annual day)
CO2 eq
Running Daily
Emission Rates by MOVES
Source (Vehicle) Type5
CO2 eq
Nonrunning Daily Emission
Rates by MOVES Source
(Vehicle) Type 6,7
Emissions Modeling Process
Step 2A: Reformat Emissions Factors
Reformat 5 MOVES
Emission Rate Tables to be
easily read in
FSUTMS/Voyager to reduce
run time
Post Process Nonrunning Emission Rates
Get
Emissions Process
(crank,
evaporative, etc)
Get Hours of Day
for NOx & VOC
Emissions
Factors
Get Vehicle
Population Data
(local vehicle
population data by
vehicle type)
Lookup Table by Pollutant
Lookup based on Emissions Process, Hour of Day and Vehicle type for
Ozone analysis. Hour is excluded for GHG analysis. Results in one
nonrunning emission factor per pollutant (g/vehicle)
Post Process Running Emission Rates
Get Emissions
Emissions Process
(crank,
evaporative, etc.)
Get Hour of Day for
NOx & VOC
Emissions
Factors
Get HPMS vehicle
categories (to be
used to calculate
appropriate VMT
fractions )
Lookup MOVES
default VMT
fractions for each
HPMS vehicle
category
Lookup Table by Pollutant
Running emissions factors by speed, vehicle type, process (ozone),
hour (ozone) and roadway type (g/mile) Get weighted average
emissions factor by MOVES default VMT percentage within each
HPMS category8
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Emissions Modeling Process
Step 2B: Prepare Model Links
Post Process Travel Model Output
Verify Each Link has an HPMS
Functional Class Code
Append MOVES road type
codes to each link using
HPMS Functional Class to
MOVES Road Type lookup
table
Calculate Intrazonal VMT and
append to centroid connector
links
Extract link Level VMT from
travel demand model
Apply HPMS Adjustment
Factor to link-level VMT by
HPMS Functional Class9
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Emissions Modeling Process
Step 3: Calculate and Summarize Emissions
HPMS-Adjusted
Link-Level VMT by County
Calculate Emissions by County
Apply Ozone
(NOx & VOC) Hourly
Running Emissions
Factors to Link-Level
hourly VMT
distribution by vehicle
type( lookup road type
and speed; aggregate by
HPMS FC)
Apply Ozone Hourly
Nonrunning Emissions
Factors to vehicle
population and sum
hourly emissions to
daily emissions
Sum Ozone
daily running and
nonrunning emissions
Apply GHG Daily
Running Emissions
Factors to Link-Level
Average Annual Daily
VMT *365 and adjust
for seasonality (lookup
road type and speed;
aggregate by HPMS FC)
Apply GHG Daily
Nonrunning Emissions
Factor to vehicle
population * 365
Sum GHG
annual running and
nonrunning emissions
Sum Emissions for Each Pollutant to 3-County Level
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(Produce summary reports/updated network by County and 3 county level and append non-running emissions to loaded network)
Emission Reduction Strategies
Strategies that can be tested within the AQPP1
Highway Only
Model
• Bottleneck relief
• Capacity
expansion
• Land Use &
Smart Growth
(large scale)
• HOV lanes
• Toll lanes
• Pricing strategies2
1 SHRP2
Transit Included
• Transit fare
measures
• Transit frequency/
LOS/Extent
• Urban transit
expansion
Trucks Included
• Truck only toll
lanes
Bike/Ped Included
• Bike facilities
• Pedestrian
facilities
• Land use and
smart growth
strategies with
pedestrian design
characteristics
C09 Incorporating GHG Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process, PB Americas with Cambridge Systematics and E.H. Pechan &
Associates, Inc. (work underway).
2 Regional models generally require significant enhancement in order to fully capture the effects of pricing policies. Most models have some capabilities to
model mode-shift, route-shift (e.g. from tolling specific roads), and destination choice (e.g., from CBD/activity center parking pricing) effects. However,
they cannot model trips foregone (e.g., due to a VMT fee) or time-of-day shifts (e.g. due to congestion pricing).
Emission Reduction Strategies Ozone & GHG Reduction
Strategies that can NOT be tested within the AQPP3
ITS/Systems Management
Carpool/vanpool/employer-based commute programs/incentives
and other TDM strategies
Regulatory measures (urban parking restrictions and speed limit
reductions)
Multimodal freight strategies (rail capacity, marine system
improvements, shipping container permits, LCV permits, weight
station bypass, truck idle reduction, freight villages)
3 SHRP2
C09 Incorporating GHG Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process, PB Americas with Cambridge Systematics and E.H. Pechan &
Associates, Inc. (work underway).
Lessons Learned
Education is key
MOVES has new local data requirements that require more
than just conversion of MOBILE6 inputs
Data coordination is imperative
Is your HPMS data reliable?
An in-depth knowledge of MOVES calculations processes is
required to make your AQPP mirror MOVES inventory
calculations
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Implementation
Nonattainment Areas expected to develop their own local
input data for MOVES (national defaults used in AQPP
framework)
FDOT creating a generic AQPP for integration by the masses
» Expected to be completed by Fall 2011
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Contact Information
Keli P. Kemp, AICP
Senior Associate
Cambridge Systematics
1566 Village Square Blvd., Ste. 2
Tallahassee, FL 32309
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 850-219-6388
Diana Fields
Transportation Planner
Florida Department of Transportation
605 Suwannee St., MS 19
Tallahassee, FL 32399
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 850-414-4901