Transcript Population Ageing and its Challenges on Social Policies

The ICPD Programme of Action
and International Migration at the
Start of the 21st Century
Ronald C. Schoenmaeckers, Ph.D.
Scientific Director CBGS
CBGS - Population and Family Study Centre
(Flemish Community, Belgium)
The objective of this presentation is to
give a statistical overview on international
migration
… in not more than 20 minutes.
CBGS
“Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and
residence within the borders of each state.”
“Everyone has the right to leave any country, including
his own, and to return to his country.”
Article 13, Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted
and proclaimed by the General Assembly of the UN on 10
December, 1948
CBGS
As ‘objectives’, the PoA states (para 10.2):
(a) To address the root causes of migration, especially those
related to poverty;
(b) To encourage more co-operation and dialogue between
countries of origin and countries of destination in order
to maximise the benefits of migration to those concerned
and increase the likelihood that migration has positive
consequences for the development of both sending and
receiving countries;
(c) To facilitate the reintegration process of returning
migrants.
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As part of the list of ‘actions’ to be taken,
the PoA mentions, among others:
(a) “Governments of countries of origin and of countries of
destination should seek to make the option of remaining
in one’s country viable for all people. To that end, efforts
to achieve sustainable economic and social development,
ensuring a better economic balance between developed
and developing countries and countries with economies in
transition should be strengthened” (para 10.3);
(b) “Governments of countries of destination are invited to
consider the use of certain forms of temporary migration,
such as short-term and project-related migrations, as a
means of improving the skills of nationals of countries of
origin, especially developing countries and countries with
economies in transition” (para 10.5).
CBGS
200
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
By major area
150
100
50
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
200
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
By major area
190m
150
100
75m
LDR
50
MDR
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
200
190m
Trend in
• Atotal
nearly threefold increase over last 45
migrant stock
150
years
(millions),
• About 63% of all migrants worldwide
1960-2005
are in More Developed Countries
By major area
100
75m
LDR
50
MDR
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
By major region
40
30
20
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
By major region
40
Asia
30
20
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
40
Asia
30
Europe
By major region
20
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
40
Asia
30
Europe
By major region
N.America
20
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
40
Asia
30
Europe
By major region
N.America
20
Africa
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
40
Asia
30
Europe
By major region
N.America
20
Africa
L.America
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0
50
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
40
Asia
30
Europe
N.America
20
Africa
L.America
10
2005
2000
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
CBGS
1995
Oceania
0
1990
By major region
50
Trend in
total
• Important
40differences between regions
migrant stock
Asia are observed
• Largest relative increases
(millions),
for Europe and Northern America
30
1960-2005
Europe
N.America
20
Africa
L.America
10
2005
2000
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
CBGS
1995
Oceania
0
1990
By major region
20%
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
As percentage of
the population
15%
World
average
10%
5%
3.0%
2.5%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0%
20%
Oceania
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
As percentage of
the population
By major region
(>15%)
15%
N.America
(13%)
10%
Europe
(8%)
5%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0%
54%
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
Share of female
migrants
World
average
51%
50%
48%
47%
45%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
42%
54%
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
Share of female
migrants
By major region
N.America
51%
48%
Africa
45%
Asia
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
42%
54%
N.America
Trend in
total
• In
Northern America (and since shortly
migrant stock
51%
also in Europe,
Oceania, and Latin
America) about 51% of migrants are
(millions),
women
1960-2005
• Sharp increase
in the number of female
48%
Share of female
migrants in Africa (while decline in
migrants Asia)
By major region
Africa
45%
Asia
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
42%
32%
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
Share of
refugees
12%
(1990)
24%
World
average
16%
8%
7%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0%
32%
Trend in
total pattern
12%
• Erratic
(1990)
migrant stock
24%
• Number of refugees is function of
(millions),
conflict
1960-2005
World
• The latter becomes especially obvious
average
16% at
when
looking
the numbers by region
Share of
refugees
8%
7%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0%
32%
Trend in total
migrant stock
(millions),
1960-2005
Share of
refugees
By major region
33%
36%
24%
Africa
Asia
16%
L.America
8%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
CBGS
1960
0%
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Net migration rate
=
in-migration – out-migration
per 100 population
CBGS
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
UKR
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
UKR
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
UKR
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
UKR
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
S
0.4
0.0
-0.4
UKR
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
in Europe,
1960-2002/3
Member States
of the Council of
Europe
0.8
S
0.4
0.0
TR
-0.4
UKR
-0.8
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
1.2
Net migration
• Relatively 0.8
low net migration
rate (on
S
in Europe,
‘average’, only 0.5%)
0.4
1960-2002/3
• Quite large differences between
individual countries
0.0
Member States
• Important
fluctuations by year
of the Council
of
TR
Europe • Some ‘migrant’
-0.4
countries may also be UKR
countries of destination for other
countries -0.8
(e.g. TR)
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2002/2003
CBGS
1965
1960
-1.2
12
Percentage of
foreign
population,
1971-2004
Former EU15
9
6
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
12
Percentage of
foreign
population,
1971-2004
Former EU15
9
B
6
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
12
Percentage of
foreign
population,
1971-2004
Former EU15
A
9
B
6
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
12
Percentage of
foreign
population,
1971-2004
Former EU15
A
9
B
6
E
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
12
Percentage of
foreign
population,
1971-2004
Former EU15
A
9
B
6
S
E
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
12
Percentage of
foreign
population,
1971-2004
Former EU15
A
9
B
6
S
E
DK
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
12
Percentage
of countries have experienced a
• Some
foreign threefold increase
since the 1970s
9
B
population,
• However, with the exception of
1971-2004
Luxembourg, where since 1991
A
proportions
of more than 30% are
6
S
Former EU15
observed (not shown),
in no country
the foreign population exceeds 9.5% of
E
the total population
DK
3
0
CBGS
1971
1981
1991
2002
2004
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
B
1.0
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
B
1.0
0.5
I
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
P
2.5
2.0
1.5
B
1.0
0.5
I
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
P
2.5
2.0
A
1.5
B
1.0
0.5
I
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
3.0
Recent •trends
P
Fluctuations
by year (depending
on
in inflowseconomic
of
achievement)
2.5
foreign •labour,
Differences between countries, e.g.
1998-2002
Ireland (not shown) experiencing
2.0
increases of more than x4
A
12% per annum
1.0
B
Selected Western
European• The median
1.5 indicates an overall
countries increase of foreign labour migration of
‘1998’-estimate = 1
0.5
I
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
P
2.5
2.0
A
1.5
B
1.0
0.5
I
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in inflows of
foreign labour,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
P
2.5
2.0
A
1.5
B
1.0
Md
0.5
I
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
S
1.0
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
I
2.5
2.0
1.5
S
1.0
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
I
2.5
2.0
1.5
S
1.0
B
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
3.0
Recent •trends
Some countries
- Italy, Belgium, and
in asylum
I
also Sweden - seem
to have been able
2.5 inflow of asylum seekers
to limit the
applications,
1998-2002
• These individual ‘successes’ have not
2.0
halted however the inflow of asylum
Selected Western
seekers to Western Europe …
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
1.5
S
1.0
B
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
I
2.5
2.0
1.5
S
1.0
B
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
A
I
2.5
2.0
1.5
S
1.0
B
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
Recent trends
in asylum
applications,
1998-2002
Selected Western
European
countries
‘1998’-estimate = 1
3.0
A
I
2.5
2.0
GR
1.5
S
1.0
B
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
3.5
3.0
Recent trends
in asylum
I
• These patterns
suggest that the
2.5
applications,
country of destination asylum seekers
1998-2002
‘choose’ depends on the legislation that
2.0
is in effect.
A
GR
Selected Western
European• When one1.5country ‘closes’ its borders,
countries asylum seekers will try their luck inS
another one.
1.0
‘1998’-estimate = 1
B
0.5
0.0
CBGS
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Some concluding remarks:
(a) “Many of the migration problems now confronting
governments [in Europe] have resulted from a piecewise
approach to specific problems, such as economic
requirements, social cohesion, asylum, illegality or return”
(Salt, 2005);
(b) Beginning of 2005 the European Commission published a
Green Paper on ‘Economic Migration’. However, the
objective is merely to get to a ‘comprehensive management
strategy’ (among EU Member States) – the paper does not
explicitly address the root causes of migration related to
poverty;
(c) In spite of the increasing number of international migrants,
countries cannot agree on organising a UN Conference on
international migration.
CBGS
Many thanks for your attention