Transcript Downstream Processing and Refining

Global Warming and
Energy
June 20, 2006
Maria A. Barrufet
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Global Warming
Global warming refers to the gradual
increase of the Earth’s temperature
because of energy trapped by the
Earth’s atmosphere
The retention of the heat by the
atmosphere is called the greenhouse
effect
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Agenda
ENERGY
FACTS
&
FACTOIDS
POLITICS
ENVIRONMENT
GLOBAL WARMING
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A hostile climate (Ice Ages)
made life hard for our ancestors
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Earth Energy Balance
If not for this natural greenhouse
effect, the earth surface would
still be covered by ice.
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As a result of a favorable
climate, population grew…
World Population Growth, 1750–2150
And so did
energy
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects,
The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.
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And so did energy ‘offspring’…
Antihistamines
Antiseptics
Artificial hearts
Clothing
Pacemakers
Fertilizers
Food preservatives and
storage bags
Heart valve replacements
Insecticides
Toothpaste and dentures
Vitamin capsules
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U.S. energy use doubled since
1960…
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‘Clean’ & ‘Dirty’ Energy Sources
Oil
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Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro/Renewables
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2001
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Altered Carbon Dioxide Balance
Photosynthesis  CO2 + H2O + light  CH2O + O2
Respiration O2 + CH2O  Energy + H2O + CO2
Burning Fuels CH4+O2 CO2+H2O+Energy
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Why is the Carbon Cycle
Important?
Carbon dioxide is the main
anthropogenic greenhouse gas
We have significantly altered the CO2
balance of the atmosphere
We need to implement measures to
slow the increase rate of CO2 in the
atmosphere
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Global warming enhanced by
emissions of man-made gases
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Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997
CO2 contributed most to global
warming over past century
Methane
23%
Carbon
Dioxide
70%
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Nitrous
Oxide
7%
Permanent & Variable Gases in
the Atmosphere
Permanent gases in the atmosphere include:
Nitrogen 78.1%
Oxygen 20.9%
Argon 0.9%
Neon 0.002%
Helium 0.0005%
Krypton 0.0001%
Hydrogen 0.00005%
Variable gases in the atmosphere (greenhouse
gases)
Water vapor 0 to 4%
Carbon Dioxide 0.035%
Methane 0.0002%
Ozone 0.000004%
CFC’s (not naturally occurring)
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Relative Concerns Over
Greenhouse gases
Several gases act as heat sinks in the atmosphere
CO2
CFCs
Methane
Water vapor
CO2 is the largest concern, being the largest
constituent of the atmosphere
Methane holds more heat, but because it is
chemically more active, its atmospheric duration
is about 10 years
CFC’s hold much more heat, and last a very long
time, but still are a smaller portion
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CFC - Fluorocarbons
Only anthropogenic
CFC’s come from
Refrigerants
Styrofoam, foaming agents
Cleaning electronics
Spray propellants
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Have we significantly altered the
CO2 balance of the atmosphere?
Are current CO2 levels unprecedented?
Yet it has been over 16-18 times higher in
the past.
Was in the air long before there was free O2
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Source: Bruce R. Peachey, President New Paradigm Engineering
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CO2 is building up in the
atmosphere
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Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997
Earth’s temperature
continues to rise rapidly
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Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997
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Increased atmospheric CO2
leads to
Increasingly unpredictable weather patterns
Increase in species migrations and
extinctions
Rising sea levels
Health effects from the spread of tropical
Are heat
these
factsand
or so-called
factoids?“natural
diseases,
waves,
disasters”
What is the evidence?
Loss of agricultural land in developing
countries
Disappearance of ecosystems
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Reliable Information Sources
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/ann/ann05.html
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Hurricanes & Global Warming
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2005 - Record Number of Storms
(27 named, 15 hurricanes)
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Hurricane  Warming
Relation
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Earth is projected to grow
warmer
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Source: Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC
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What is the evidence for
global warming?
Data Source: NCEP ( National Centers for Environmental Prediction) US.
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http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/Anomaly_Loops.html
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Artic Melting
www.net.org/ warming/stills.html
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, November 2004
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The polar ice cap is melting
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Selected Examples: Human
toll of heat wave, August 2003
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Warming Not Happening?
Various reports and data adjustments
both ways
Historical record is not long
Motivation and accuracy of
measurement not constant
Are we comparing apples and
oranges?
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Global Temperature
Increases
1980-90 Transition to digital temperature
measurement
Truncated readings?
Deg C
Actual
Digital
Thermometer
15.57
15.5
15
30.25
30.2
30
40.75
40.7
40
-10.18
-10.1
-10
Deg F
Actual
60.026
Digital
60
Thermometer
60
86.45
86.4
86
105.35
105.3
105
13.676
13.6
13
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Average
35.85
28.06
35.8
28.025
35
27.5
Offset (C) -0.56
96.53
90.508
96.5
90.45
96
90
Offset (F) -0.2822
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The growing trend in global CO2
emissions
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Source: IPCC WGIII
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Rating Greenhouse Gases
Compound
Toxicity
Index
(GWI)
Atmospheric
Lifetime
(years)
HFC-152a
140
1.5
1000
5000
4.8-18.8
HFC-32
650
5.6
1000
3000
14.4-28.9
HFC-134a
1300
13.6
1000
3000
none
HFC- 125
2800
32.6
1000
3000
none
HFC-143a
3800
53.5
1000
3000
8.2-17.4
CO2
1
> 100
5000
30,000
none
Propane
3
0.04
1000
-
2.1-9.6
n-Butane
3
0.02
800
-
1.9-8.5
Ammonia
-
-
25
35
15-28
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Acceptable
Occupational
Long-term
exposure
(ppm)
Acceptable
Occupational
Short-term
exposure
(ppm)
Flammability
Limits
Vol% in Air
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Top 16 Carbon Emitters
Tonnes/Capita
U.S. Virgin Islands (21.6); Qatar (16.9)
United Arab Emirates (11.5); Luxembourg (7.6)
Aruba (6.9); Brunei Darussalem (6.8)
Bahrain (6.5); Netherlands Antilles (6.3)
Wake Island (5.2); United States (5.2)
Falkland Islands (5.1); Singapore (4.9)
Trinidad & Tobago (4.5); St. Pierre & Michelon (4.3)
Australia (4.2); Canada (4.1)
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Sheep & Cattle Cause 20% of
Pollution in Australia
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What do we do to lower the rate
of GHG’s in the atmosphere?
Common sense
solutions
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Common sense goals to cope
with the climate threat
Reduce CO2 and other GHG emissions
Require world economy to become much more
efficient
Start a world-wide shift from fossil to non-fossil
energy sources
Adaptation - A Necessary Response
Reduce current forest clearance rates
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Long Run Perspectives for
Energy Demand
Demand for energy will continue to grow,
linked to population growth and economic
activity
Growth will be fastest in the developing
world and weakest in Eastern Europe / FSU
A shift to low carbon, clean fuels will favor
natural gas and renewables
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Projected Increase in Energy
Demand
Global, 1990-2100
World
OECD
US
Brazil
Japan
China
India
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0.8%
1.1%
1.4%
1.5%
2.7%
3.2%
4.3%
5.5%
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Energy for the New
Millennium
Where do we stand and where do we
go?
From vision to implementation
Energy and economy
Environmental compliance
Our role in the future
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Long-Term
Planning
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What shall we do about it?
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CO2 Mitigation Options
Reduce
Energy Efficiency
New Technology
Fuel Choice
Stop Leaks,
Flares, Venting
Dispose
Saline Aquifers
Depleted Reservoirs
Coal beds
Deep Ocean
Use
EOR
EGR
ECBM
Agriculture
Forests
Chemicals
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Source: Advanced Resources International
Moving Towards Low
Carbon Energy Supply
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Decarbonization Trend
H
100
H
(H+C)
Projected
C
Hydrogen
Economy
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Batteries
Fuel Cells
Methane: H/C = 4
Methane Economy
Oil: H/C = 2
1
0.1
0.01
1800
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Non-fossil
Hydrogen
.80
.67
Coal: H/C = 1
.50
1935 (midpoint of process)
Wood H/C = 0.1
1850
.90
.09
1900
1950
2000
Year
2050
2100
2150
Source: Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April 1996
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What have we accomplished?
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Today it would take 37 new cars to
produce the same tailpipe emissions
as one new car in the 1960s
Emissions from new cars are 95%
lower than those in the 60s
Major multinational oil companies
are setting international standards
for safety and environmental
performance
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Before
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After
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For the record
The U.S. oil and natural gas industry
employs nearly 1.4 million people
Between 1990 and 2000, the U.S. oil and
natural gas industry spent about $98
billion to protect the nation’s
environment
Oil has a second life by recycling
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Photovoltaics (PV) produce
power with no emissions or
moving parts
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Energy Sources in USA
Renewable 6%
Solar 1%
Wind 2%
Share of total
energy (0.18% of
total use)
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Concentrating the Sun
Solar thermal devices use
direct heat from the sun,
concentrating it to produce
heat at useful temperatures.
The modern solar industry
began with the oil embargo of
1973-1974. The growth of the
solar industry during this
period of fuel shortages and
high prices (1974-1984)
soared from 45 solar collector
manufacturing firms to 225
firms
http://www.rpc.com.au/products/panels/pvmodules/pvmodules.html
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Accessed February, 2006
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Solar Architecture Examples
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Austria - Institute for Marketing
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Wind Power
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U.S. wind power map. Source: United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html (accessed February, 2006)
Wind power sources growing
rapidly worldwide
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Alternative Energy Sources
How much is this?
More than 500 utilities in 34
states, generate electricity
equivalent to the needs of
400,000 homes.
( Source: National Renewable
Energy Laboratory, NREL)
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TOTAL INSTALLED U.S. WIND ENERGY
CAPACITY: 6,740 MW as of Jan 24, 2005
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Cape Wind Project
At least five
miles offshore
Strong,
consistent winds
and shallow
water
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Pros of the Project
Replaces 113 million tons of oil per year
“Zero-emissions”
Boost to Cape Cod’s economy (600-1,000
new jobs for Cape Codders)
Does not require land
May help with navigation and rescue
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Typical Turbine Dimensions
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Future of Energy Markets:
Renewables (BP Source)
25
Year 2000 (cents/kWh)
Solar Photovoltaic
20
15
10
5
Est. Current
residential premium price
Est. Current residential
retail price
Wind
0
2000
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Est. Wholesale price
2010
2020
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Assumptions to lower CO2
emissions by 2/3 by 2100…
Global supply of renewable (wind, PV,
hydro) would increase to 50% by 2100
Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes,
municipal wastes, would account for 30%
of supply by 2100
Nuclear would be phased out by 2100
Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to 18%
of global supply from its present value of
80%
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Energy supply: The global
transition to non-fossil energy
Mtoe
25,000
Solar
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
N. Gas
Coal
Oil
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
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2020
2050
2100
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Are Bio Fuels Competitive?
Bio-fuel combustion does produce CO2 as well
Ethanol
2C2H5OH  6O2  4CO2  6H2O  Energy
Ethane
2C2H6  7O2  4CO2  6H2O  Energy
Energy intensity of ethanol and methanol
compared to diesel are about 56% and 46%
respectively
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Are Bio Fuels Competitive?
Major pollution from aerosols formed
during combustion of some bio-fuels
(solid particulates)
May cause respiratory problems
Reserves not ‘unlimited’
More technological barriers to overcome
than ‘conventional energy’
However… aerosols have a cooling effect
as opposed to GHG
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What else to do to lower the rate
of GHH in the atmosphere?
New policies to enforce
and monitor actions taken
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Policies Kyoto
December 1997, International Agreement to
reduce CO2 emissions to 1990 levels, with
further reductions over time
Agreement between 160 signatories, who
represent individual countries and
territories
Established that these reductions in CO2 are
legally binding
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What happened to the Kyoto
protocol?
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US Response
‘I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because
it exempts 80% of the world,
including major population centers
such as China and India.’
Pres. G. W. Bush
(Letter from Bush to Sens. Hagel, Helms, Craig, and Roberts. March
13, 2001)
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Global CO2 Emissions
Emissions in 000
Metric Tons
6,000,000
5,250,000
4,500,000
US
China
India
3,750,000
3,000,000
2,250,000
1,500,000
750,000
0
1990
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1996
(Source:
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center)
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Proposed Alternatives
Clean Skies
Clean Development
Mechanisms
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An Inconvenient Truth…
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Project ‘Clean Skies’
Cuts power plant emissions of nitrogen
oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury
Cuts greenhouse gases (by 18%)
Supports more research
Supports American workers
Includes developing world
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Clean Development
Mechanism
Improves air quality by market-based
approach
Developed countries receive credits for
reduction
Incentives for project activities in
developing countries
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Discussions
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Conflicting Views
Energy use warming atmosphere
Warming is (not) happening
GHG’s trapping solar heat
Human impact minor or beneficial
Can’t afford the solutions
Wind, biomass, solar, nuclear,
hydroelectric and other energy
supplies have their own problems
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The Balance of Evidence Says...
Warming IS happening
Waste of fossil fuels IS a real problem
GHG’s trapping SOME solar heat
Energy use IS warming atmosphere
Human impact COULD BE harmful or
beneficial
Can’t afford SOME solutions
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Does It Matter Which View is
Right?
Likely no one view is entirely
right
By the time we are sure which is
most right, it may be too late
What is the best strategy?
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Global Warming & Energy
Use or Abuse
THANKS
Maria A. Barrufet
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Global energy Web sites
www/iiasa.ac.at/cgibin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.pv
Global Energy Perspectives
www.undp.org/seed/eap/
United Nations Development Program
www.worldenergy.org/
World Energy Council
www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/
World Energy Assessment
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References
www.ipcc.ch/
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change”
www.usgcrp.gov/
“US Global Change Research Program”
globalchange.gov/
“Gateway to Global Change Data”
www.globalchange.org/
“Global Change, Electronic Edition”
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