Transcript Production Functions - Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Identification of Potentially
Valuable Flexibilities -- Intro
• Introduce Methods for identifying potentially
valuable sources of flexibility
• More detailed presentation at end of course
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The Issue:
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Interesting Systems easily have 10s of 1000s
possible combinations
10s of major elements; each with several sizes or
configurations, with several possible phases
Elements exp(sizes or shapes) exp(phases)
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Which to choose?
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 1 of 13
2 Fundamental Ways
To Approach Issue
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Both work with system experts
… Differ in how the methods work with them
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Either: to elicit their suggestions directly
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“Direct Assessment”
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Or: to describe system, and then use this to
determine likely possibilities
“Indirect Assessment”
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 2 of 13
Direct Assessment
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Simple Version: Ask designers for ideas
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What we did for Gulf of Mexico analysis
Effective – if designers are responsive
Limited –important opportunities may be hidden
Advanced Version: Interactive collaboration
structured to search for, reveal opportunities
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Lin dissertation work with BP (later presentation)
Effective – for BP found unsuspected, valuable
opportunities
Time Consuming – BP case, about a year
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 3 of 13
Indirect Assessment
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The common approach uses some form of
“Design Structure Matrix” (DSM)
DSM is a Square matrix of all important
elements of system in rows and columns
… showing various forms of linkages
… comes in different versions
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Existence (0 or 1 or check as entry)
Causality (which affects what)
Intensity…
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 4 of 13
Indirect Assessment:
3 Examples
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Wilds (SM Thesis in Aero and ESD, 2008)
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Kalligeros (PhD Dissertation ESD, 2006)
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Based upon standard DSM
Estimates detailed impact of change in one
parameter over series of components
Sensitivity – DSM (SDSM)
Bartolomei (PhD Dissertation, ESC, 2007)
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Engineering System Matrix (ESM)
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 5 of 13
Kalligeros S-DSM
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In brief
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Develops DSM
Interviews Designers to determine sensitivities
of components to changes
Fades out insignificant items (Think of zooming
out on Mapquest and losing detail)
Matrix operations to reorder rows and columns
into blocks
Places where these blocks overlap indicate
“Hot Spots” , design elements where Flexibility
is desirable
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 6 of 13
Kalligeros S-DSM
Assessment of Sensitivities
FRi x j
x j FRi
Functional
Requirements
Design
Variables
xi FR j
FR j xi
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
xi x j
x j xi
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 7 of 13
Kalligeros S-DSM
After Matrix Operations
Changing
functional
requirements
Platform design
variables and
functional
requirements
xp
FRc
xp
0
xp
Changing
design variables
and functional
fequirements
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
0
xc
xc
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 8 of 13
Bartolomei -- ESM
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In Brief
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Expands DSM concept beyond mechanical,
technical components
Includes stakeholders in Engineering System:
-- decision-makers, users, those impacted by
system
Uses sophisticated Social Science methods to
elicit validated assessment of matrix entries
Hopes to determine “hot spots” more
generally (method not specified)
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 9 of 13
Implications of ESM
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Interesting Opportunities for Flexibility may
exist outside of physical (DSM) system
Example: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)
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Originally developed by US military for with
requirement for photographic surveillance
Requirements changed by military:
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Longer “dwell time”, new payloads
… also by others stakeholders – fire service
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different altitudes, sensors…
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 10 of 13
Bartolomei ESM
Illustration of Concept
Engineering Systems Matrix
SYSTEM DRIVERS
STAKEHOLDERS
AGENTS (TEAM DSM)
SYSTEM BOUNDARY
OBJECTIVES
FUNCTIONS/PROCESSES
OBJECTS/DETAILS (COMPONENT DSM)
ACTIVITIES (ACTIVITY DSM)
PARAMETERS (PARAMETER DSM)
CHARACTERISTICS
ATTRIBUTES/MOPs
© 2006 Jason Bartolomei, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 11 of 13
Bartolomei ESM
Desired Outcomes of Process
Engineering Systems Matrix
SYSTEM DRIVERS
STAKEHOLDERS
AGENTS (TEAM DSM)
SYSTEM BOUNDARY
OBJECTIVES
FUNCTIONS/PROCESSES
OBJECTS/DETAILS (COMPONENT DSM)
ACTIVITIES (ACTIVITY DSM)
PARAMETERS (PARAMETER DSM)
CHARACTERISTICS
ATTRIBUTES/MOPs
© 2006 Jason Bartolomei, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 12 of 13
Summary of Introduction
Methods of Identifying Flexibilities
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At this point:
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Indirect Assessments popular in research
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Direct Assessments more practical
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But: Not operational for practical
But: No systematic way to implement
Fuller Presentation at end of Semester
Engineering Systems Analysis for Design
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard de Neufville ©
Identification of Flexibility
Slide 13 of 13