Transcript Keeping Students on the Graduation Path in High

Keeping Students on a
Graduation Path in High-Poverty
Middle-Grades Schools
Early Identification & Effective Interventions
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver (2007)
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
The High School Dropout Crisis
Research has shown that one-third to one-half
of the students in many urban districts in the
U.S. fail to graduate from high school
(e.g., Balfanz & Legters, 2004; Swanson, 2004)
In today’s society, their job prospects are
gloomy, and the social and economic costs
are staggering
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Early Intervention Is Crucial
By the time they reach high school, many urban
students are so far behind academically and
have such a poor pattern of attendance that
it is virtually too late to begin intervention.
Poor middle school education and failure to
intervene at the middle school level
contribute to 9th grade course failure and
ultimately to the dropout rate
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Research Questions
1.
2.
How many students exhibit early warning
signs that they are beginning to disengage
from schooling at the start of the middle
grades in high poverty schools?
Can schools easily identify and effectively
rescue students who have high odds of
ultimately dropping out?
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Data and Methods

We followed all 13,000 of Philadelphia’s
public school students who were enrolled in
the 6th grade in October 1996. We followed
them through October 2004 (1.25 years
beyond their expected graduation date)

We also looked at 3 more recent cohorts of
Philadelphia’s 6th-graders and at cohorts in
two other cities to verify our findings
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Cont. – Data and Methods

We did a preliminary screen of about 20
variables (e.g., test scores, over age for grade,
course marks, course failures, attendance,
behavior marks, status and demographic
indicators) to see which, if any, could identify as
early as 6th grade students at high risk for
slipping off a graduation pathway

We looked for variables with a high predictive
power (i.e., about 75% or more of students with
this characteristic do not make it to 12th grade on
time)
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Findings
Four Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of
“Slipping Off Path”
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Attending school 80% or less of the
time
Receiving a poor final behavior mark or
a suspension
Failing Math
Failing English
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
6th-Grade Course Failure
as a Predictor of Not Graduating

Course failure was a much better predictor of
not graduating than were low test scores.

Students who failed either a math course or
an English/Reading course in sixth grade
rarely graduated from the district.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Did 6th-graders who FAILED MATH in 1997 (n=1801)
Graduate On Time or One Year Late?
% who were in ….
In 2003 (on time)
In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade
4
1
10th grade
9
1
11th grade
8
2
12th grade
19
8
% of students who
actually graduated
13
6
Cum. % who left the
District
61
75
Did 6th-graders who FAILED ENGLISH in 1997
(n=1409) Graduate On Time or One Year Late?
% who were in ….
In 2003 (on time)
In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade
5
1
10th grade
9
2
11th grade
8
2
12th grade
16
9
% of students who
actually graduated
12
6
Cum. % who left the
District
62
74
6th-Grade Attendance as a Predictor of
Not Graduating


Attending school less than 90% of the time
increases the odds that a student will not
graduate.
When a sixth-grader’s attendance dips below
80% (missing 36 days or more in the year),
the student has only a 1 in 6 chance of
graduating from the district on time or oneyear late.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Did LOW ATTENDING 6TH Graders in 1997 (n=1934)
Graduate On Time or One Year Late?
% who were in ….
In 2003 (on time)
In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade
3
1
10th grade
6
1
11th grade
4
1
12th grade
17
5
% of students who
actually graduated
13
4
Cum. % who left the
District
69
79
Poor Behavior in 6th-Grade as a Predictor
of Not Graduating
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Students who were suspended slipped off the
graduation path in large numbers.
845 (6%) of the sixth-graders received one or
more out of school suspensions. Only 20%
of these students graduated on time or one
year late.
222 sixth-graders received in-school
suspensions. Only 17% graduated on time or
one year late.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Poor Behavior (cont.)


Receiving a final unsatisfactory behavior
grade in any subject in the sixth-grade
significantly reduced the chances that sixthgraders would graduate from the school
district.
A very large number (4,893) and percent
(38%) received at least one final
unsatisfactory behavior grade.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Did 6th-Graders With an Unsatisfactory Behavior Grade
in 1997 (n=1934) Graduate On Time or One Year Late?
% who were in ….
In 2003 (on time)
In 2004 (1 yr. late)
9th grade
3
1
10th grade
7
1
11th grade
7
2
12th grade
31
8
% of students who
actually graduated
24
5
Cum. % who left the
District
52
64
Percent of Sixth-Graders Graduating on Time
or One Year Late
Failure & Behavior
Combinations
On-Time Grads
1-Yr-Late Grads
Fail English but
Good Behavior
(n=176)
14%
7%
Fail English & Poor
Beh. (n=725)
6%
5%
Fail Math but Good
Behavior (n=298)
16%
8%
Fail Math & Poor
Beh. (n=1006)
8%
5%
Graduation rates for 6th Graders with Different
Numbers of Risk Factors
# of Risk Factors
N
Percent Who
Graduate
None
6265
56%
Only 1
3498
36%
2
1329
21%
3
619
13%
4
326
7%
1 or more
5772
29%
Discussion

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We were able to find four variables with a
very high predictive yield that identify the
majority of sixth-graders who fall off the
graduation path
These variables are each commonly
measured and collectively capture a
significant portion of a district’s future
dropouts
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Replications

We have replicated these findings using data
from several other urban districts:
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Baltimore
Indianapolis
Boston
In each case, we found that about half the
students who eventually drop out can be
identified in 6th grade
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Implications

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Students fall off the graduation path in
different but identifiable ways.
In 6th grade, most future dropouts have just
one of the big four risk factors – especially
poor behavior or poor attendance
Some have two risk factors, especially poor
behavior plus course failure (in English or
mathematics)
Less than 8% of the sixth-graders had more
than two of the big four indicators.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
What Districts Can Do: Helping Schools
Implement Early Warning Systems


Offer training institutes to principals on the
early identification of students who are falling
off the graduation pathway during the middle
grades
Training should include the nuts & bolts of
creating a user-friendly early-warning system
of indicators
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
District Interventions
Key goals of the training institutes:
 increase awareness that students’ academic
and behavioral problems at the start of the
middle grades typically do not self correct
 Convince school leaders that early
intervention is absolutely essential and also
feasible
 Teach school leaders how to implement a 3tier prevention model
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
A 3-Tier Prevention Model
1.
2.
3.
Schoolwide reforms aimed at alleviating
75% or so of the problem behaviors
including poor attendance
Shepherding for the 15% to 20% of students
who need additional supports beyond the
schoolwide reforms
Intensive efforts involving specialists
(counselors, social workers, tutors) for the
5% to 10% who need more clinical types of
support
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Comprehensive School Reform
Research suggests that comprehensive
school reform can significantly reduce the
number of students who develop a poor
attendance habit, who fail math, or who fail
English and can produce significantly higher
graduation rates.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Importance of Additional Interventions
in the Middle Grades
Additional interventions specifically focused
on improving behavior and attendance must
be added
What characterizes effective interventions for
behavior and attendance?
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Features of Effective Interventions for
Behavior and Attendance
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Positive behavior and good attendance is constantly
recognized, modeled, and promoted
The first absence or incident of misbehavior brings a
consistent, appropriate response
The intervention uses simple data collection and
analysis tools that enable teachers and
administrators to better understand the school’s
absenteeism or misbehavior problems
Interdisciplinary teams regularly meet to analyze
data and devise solutions
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Shepherding of the Initially Unresponsive
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If the student is a low attender, the shepherd
might call the student each day the student is
absent to communicate that the student is
missed and to ask the reason for nonattendance.
If the student has behavior problems,
shepherding might involve asking each of the
student’s teachers to complete a simple
behavioral record and then checking at the
end of the day how the student did.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Comprehensive Plan for Keeping Middle
Grades Students on the Graduation Track
Type of
Attendance
Intervention
School-wide
(all
students)
Behavior
Course
Failure
•Every absence
•Teach, model,
•Research-based
brings a response
•Create culture
which says
attending every
day matters
•Positive social
incentives for
good attendance
•Data tracking at
teacher team
level
expect good
behavior
instructional
programs
•Positive social
•In-classroom
incentives and
recognition for
good behavior
implementation
support to enable
active and
engaging
pedagogies
•Advisory Period
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Comprehensive Plan for Keeping Middle
Grades Students on the Graduation Track
Type of
Intervention
Targeted
(15% to
20% of
students)
Attendance
Behavior
Course
Failure
•2 or more
•2 or more office
•Extra help
unexcused
absences in a
month brings brief
daily check by an
adult
referrals results in
involvement of
Behavior Team
courses (replacing
electives) tightly
linked to core
curriculum, to fill in
knowledge gaps
•Targeted reduced
class size for
students whose
failure rooted in
socio-emotional
issues
•Attendance team
investigates and
problem solves
•Simple behavior
checklist brought
from class to class
and checked each
day
•Mentor assigned
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
Comprehensive Plan for Keeping Middle
Grades Students on the Graduation Track
Type of
Attendance
Intervention
Intensive
(5% to 10%
of
students)
Sustained oneon-one attention
and problem
solving
Bring in
appropriate social
service and/or
community
supports
Behavior
Course
Failure
•In-depth behavioral •One-on-one
assessment – why
is student
misbehaving?
•Behavior contracts
with family
involvement
• Bring in
appropriate social
service and/or
community supports
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007
tutoring
A Promising Path to
Higher Graduation Rates
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Identify students who need sustained intervention in the
middle grades.
Assist school to adopt both comprehensive schoolwide
reforms and more targeted and individually-focused
interventions to prevent and alleviate student
disengagement.
Combine district supports to troubled high schools with
supports to the middle grades schools that feed them.
Conduct district and state-level evaluation and
dissemination of what’s working at each tier as schools and
districts implement the 3-tier prevention model.
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007