ISA – Killing Speed Electronically

Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK

How does ISA operate?

1. Position:

a GPS based navigation system

2.

Information:

a digital road map with speed limits Evidence from trial after trial is that this can be made to work reliably

3.

HMI:

Tell the driver the speed limit

4.

Control (if wanted):

a link to the drivetrain

Driving with ISA reduces crash risk

• Calculation of

individual

crash risk with intervening ISA (report to Transport for London, 2006) • Method: – By combining observed changes in speed behaviour on 30 mph roads (from ISA-UK Trial 1) – With risk of crash involvement given driving speed on urban roads (from Kloeden et al., 1997) – We can calculate an average saving in the risk of a crash • Answer: – 19.3% reduction

Attitudes

• Generally supportive public attitudes: – MORI poll in UK for FIA Foundation in 2002: • 70% support for warning ISA in urban areas • 58% would support non-overridable limiters on residential streets if that meant road humps would be removed • ISA “grows” on those who experience it: – Almqvist and Nygard (1997) found that 73% of drivers reported being more positive towards ISA after using it than before – Lahrmann, Madsen and Boroch (2001) reported that 15 out of 20 drivers became more favourable to using ISA after experience of the system

ISA brings other benefits

• Fuel savings • CO 2 savings • Potential to

reduce

journey time (managed motorways; reduction in incidents) • Cheap traffic calming

PROSPER Results: Benefits and Costs

 Oliver Carsten  Institute for Transport Studies  University of Leeds  UK The Prosper project is co-funded by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport.

Accident prediction and cost-benefit

   

analysis

Six countries — Belgium, Great Britain, France, NL, Spain and Sweden Two major scenarios – Market driven (those who want ISA fit it) – Authority driven (first encouragement and then compulsion) Scenarios affect mix of ISA systems Procedure: – Predict traffic growth – Predict accident risk without ISA – Predict additional safety impact of ISA (via change in speed patterns) – Analyse costs and benefits

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005

Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Market-Driven Scenario

2010 2015 Belgium Britain France Netherlands Spain Sweden 2020 2025

Year

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005

Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Authority-Driven Scenario

2010 Belgium Britain France Netherlands Spain Sweden 2015 2020 2025

Year

2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Reductions in fatalities (ISA versus no ISA) in 2050 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Belgium GB France Market Scenario NL Spain Authority Scenario Sweden

Benefit-to-cost ratios by country and scenario 5 4.5

4 3.5

3 2.5

2 1.5

1 0.5

0 Belgium GB France NL Spain Sweden Market Scenario Authority Scenario

Note: Year of mandatory usage for Authority Scenario is in range 2032 to 2035

Implementation of ISA

• Comments at PROSPER seminar (policy-driven group): – Waiting till 2035 or 2050 is too long • Can we learn some lessons from another successful technology — seatbelts?

Time line for seatbelts

1949 1950 1955 1959 1962 1967 1968 1968 1970 1975 1983 Nash offers lap belts in USA Nash withdraws option Ford and Chrysler offer optional lap belts in USA Volvo introduces 3-point belt as standard in Sweden Seatbelt anchors standard in US GB requires installation of 3 point belts in front US requires installation of 3 point belts in front GB requires retrofit of 3 point belts in front on model year 1965 and later cars Victoria (Australia) mandates use in front and rear Sweden mandates use in front GB mandates use in front

Stages

• Stage 1: Voluntary fitment – Lots of trouble to install • Stage 2: Required anchorages – Pioneers adopt • Stage 3: Required fitment – Large numbers can voluntarily adopt • Stage 4: Compulsory usage

The “Tipping Points”

The “Tipping Points” are: 1. Requiring capability on the vehicle (= the seatbelt anchorages)

This enables voluntary fitment

2. Requiring fitment

This enables large scale voluntary usage

But also one crucial difference with seatbelts:

ISA cannot be used without an information service

Great Britain: Seatbelt wearing rates for front occupants of cars and vans

100 90 80 30 20 10 0 70 60 50 40 19 70 19 71 19 72 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85

Conclusions

• “ETSC seeks to identify and promote effective measures on the basis of international scientific research and best practice in areas which offer the greatest potential for a reduction in transport crashes and casualties.” • ISA fits those criteria with huge potential for casualty reduction • ETSC and other safety organisations should promote 2 stages of deployment:

Stage 1:

– A pan-European speed limit information service – A standard link between speed limit information and vehicle control (ECE Reg 89 on Speed Limitation Devices as amended in 2002 allows for adjustable speed limiters) Stage 2: – Required fitment of intervening (but overridable) ISA

One last point

• Do we need a new name for ISA?

– How likely is that a customer will walk into the showroom and ask for “Intelligent Speed Adaptation”?

• How about “In-Vehicle Speed Support” (IVSS)?