Transcript USDA 2001 Agricultural Baseline International Projection

Prospects for World Agriculture
Baseline Projections to 2014
Ronald Trostle
Economic Research Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foro de Perspectiva Agroindustrial, 2005
27 y 28 de Julio, 2005.
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Presentation Outline
• Summary of projections
• Main assumptions
• Developments influencing world
agriculture
• Projections for farm commodities
• Uncertainties
• Conclusion
28 July, 2005
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
USDA Baseline Projections
• 10-year projections for major farm commodities
- Supply, demand, trade, and prices.
• Projections based on:
- Economic models
> Crop-area allocation model - for the USA
> Models for individual commodity markets in the USA
> Linked Country Model (“Linker”)
( Links 23 commodity markets in 39 countries & regions )
- Analysis and judgments by commodity analysts, country
analysts and policy analysts.
• Assumptions:
- Basline projections based on many assumption
- The baseline is not a forecast; but a projection of what might
occur under a specific set of assumptions
• Projections made November, 2004.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Total World Grain & Oilseeds1
Area, Yield, Production, & Percap Consumption; and Population
Index: 1975 = 100
200
Production
Yield
Area Harv
Percap Use
Population
180
160
Exponential trend
growth rates:
1975-95
Prod
1.6
Yields
1.8
Area
-0.26
Percap
Use
0.08
Populatio 1.68
140
120
Peak
100
Peak
80
1975
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1980
1 Total
95-04
0.7
1.3
-0.59
06-14
.09
0.8
0.11
-0.04
1.23
-0.18
1.05
oilseeds = soybeans +
rapeseed + sunflowers
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Global Meat1
Production & Percap Consumption; and Population
Index: 1975 = 100
300
250
Productio
n
200
Population
150
Per capita Consumption
100
1975
1Meat
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1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
= Beef + Pork + Poultry
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2005
2010
2015
Main Assumptions
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Strong Economic Growth
GDP growth rates, by decade averages
Percen
t
5
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-14
3
1
-1
-3
-5
World
Developed
United
States
EU-25
Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014, February 2005.
Economic Research Service, USDA.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
FSU
Developing
Population Growth Rates Decline
(Percent by Decade)
Percent
4
Middle
East
Africa
3
Latin
Asia
America Developing
World
2
Developed
1
0
1970's
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1980's
1990's
(2002-2014)
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Inflation Rates Generally Decline
Percent
15
10
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-14
5
0
World
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Developed
United States
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Developing
U.S. Dollar Projected to Strengthen1
Index values: 2000=100
120
100
80
60
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Crude Oil Prices
$ per barrel
45
40
35
Refiners' acquisition cost
of crude, imports
30
25
Refiners' acquisition
cost, adjusted for
inflation
20
15
10
5
0
1990
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1995
2000
2005
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
2015
Policy Assumptions
• Domestic agricultural and trade policies in
most countries either do not change, or
they continue to evolve along their current
path.
• All countries fully comply with all existing
bilateral and multilateral agreements.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Other Global Influences
• Technical developments enhance productivity:
- Biotechnology increased farm productivity
- Developments in transportation, processing, energy use
- Increased availability of data and information
• Globalization: Markets more integrated from farm to table.
• Environmental Policy: Will influence farm production.
• Renewable energy: Will reallocate production resources.
• Food Safety: Will affect production, processing &
marketing.
• New producers exporting to niche markets: Will mean
increased competition.
• Aging World Population: Will change eating habits.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Changes in Food Consumption
• Greater consumption of:
- Fruits & Vegetables
- Vegetable Oils
- Processed Cereal Products
- Meats & Dairy Products
• Less consumption of:
- Staple grains - rice in Asia, corn in Mexico & Africa
- Low-quality grain varieties (switching to higher quality)
(high-quality varieties may have lower yields)
- Roots & tubers
• Feed demand increases:
 import demand for feed grains & protein meals
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Oilseeds, Grains and Cotton
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Global trade: Wheat, Coarse Grains,
and Soybeans & Soybean products
Million metric tons
175
Soybeans and
soybean products 1/
150
125
Wheat
100
Coarse
grains
75
50
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2009
2014
S. American Exports: Grain & Soybeans
Million metric tons
100
80
60
Oilseeds
40
Coarse grains
20
Wheat
0
84/85
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Rice
89/90
94/95
99/00
04/05
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
09/10
14/15
Global exports: Soybeans, soybean
meal, and soybean oil
Soybeans and soybean meal,
million metric tons
Soybean oil,
million metric tons
100
16
Soybeans
80
14
12
Soybean oil
10
60
Soybean meal
40
8
6
4
20
2
0
1985
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0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
Global Soybean Imports
Million metric tons
100
90
Other
80
China & Hong Kong
70
60
50
40
N. Africa & M. East
L.Amer & Mexico
East Asia
European Union 1/
30
20
10
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
1/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
Global soybean meal imports
Million metric tons
70
Other
60
FSU & OE 1/
50
N. Africa & Middle East
L. America & Mexico
40
East Asia
European Union 2/
30
20
10
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1/ Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Global soybean oil imports
Million metric tons
14
Rest of w orld
12
Other Asia 1/
India
10
China
8
N Africa & Middle East
Latin America 2/
6
4
2
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
1/ Asia less India and China. 2/ Includes Mexico.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
Global Exports of Soybeans & Products1
Million metric tons
180
Other
160
140
120
100
Brazil
80
60
Argentina
40
20
0
89/90
1Soybeans
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United States
94/95
99/00
04/05
+ bean equivalent of soymeal.
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
09/10
14/15
Global Corn Imports
Million metric
120
tons
100
China
Other
80
S & SE Asia 1/
Latin Am 2/
60
NAFTA
Afr & M East
40
East Asia
20
0
1994
1999
2004
2009
1/ Includes Oceania. 2/ Excludes Mexico which is part of NAFTA.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2014
China: Corn Imports and Exports
Million metric tons
15
15
Exports
12
12
9
9
Imports
6
6
3
3
0
1985
0
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2015
Global Corn Exports
Million metric tons
100
80
Other 1/
China
Argentina
United States
60
40
20
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1/ Republic of South Africa, Brazil, EU, former Soviet Union, and others.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
Global Wheat Imports
Million metric tons
200
175
150
125
Other 1/
FSU & OE 2/
China
Africa & Middle East
NAFTA
Latin America
East Asia
European Union 3/
100
75
50
25
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1/ Predominantly South and Southeast Asia.
2/ Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
3/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Global Wheat Exports
Million metric tons
125
United States
100
FSU & OE 1/
Argentina
75
Australia
50
Canada
Other
25
European Union 2/
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1/ Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Global Cotton Imports
Million
bales
40
China
30
South Asia 3/
Southeast Asia 2/
20
Other
Latin America 1/
East Asia
10
EU, FSU, & OE 4/
0
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
3/ Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and Other Europe.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Global Cotton Exports
Million bales
40
30
Other
Former Soviet Union
South America
20
Australia
Sub-Saharan Africa
United States
10
0
1985
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Livestock and Meats
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Beef and Veal Imports: Major Countries1
Million metric tons
6
5
4
North Africa & Middle East
European Union 2/
Russia
East Asia
NAFTA
3
2
1
0
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
1/ Selected importers.
2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2009
2014
Pork Imports: Major Countries1
Million metric tons
5
United States
Mexico
Russia
China
East Asia
4
3
2
1
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1/ Selected importers.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
Poultry Imports: Major Countries1
Million metric tons
5
East Asia
4
China
Russia
3
Saudi Arabia
EU 2/
2
Mexico
1
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1/ Selected importers.
2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
Meat Exports from Major Exporters
Million metric tons
26
21
17
Poultry
13
Pork
9
4
0
1984
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Beef & veal
1989
1994
1999
2004
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2009
2014
S. Amercia: Meat Exports
Million metric tons
8
7
6
5
Poultry
4
3
Beef
2
1
0
1975
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Pork
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2010
2015
Uncertainties - General
• Economic growth: Will it be less rapid than
projected?
• Energy prices: Will petroleum & natural gas prices
drop from current highs -- or rise even further? What
will be impact on fertilizer and fuel costs?
• Diseases: Will Avian influenza, BSE, FMD and
Asian rust spread to other countries?
• Supply response: How fast can world ag
production respond to future shocks in production?
• Additional crop land: How much can be brought
into production -- on a sustainable basis?
• Water shortages: Agriculture competition with
residential, commercial and industrial demand?
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Uncertainties - Country Specific
• Argentina: Expansion in crop area? Productivity
growth? Expansion in cattle feed-lot sector?
• Brasil: Expansion in crop area? Infrastructure
improvements (transportation & on-farm storage)?
• China: Becomes a net corn importer? Soybean
imports continue to rise? Possible revaluation of
Yuan? Water shortages constrain farm
production?
• Eastern Europe: Becomes the bread basket for
Europe and a major exporter?
• Asian Rice Consumption: Trend in per capita
consumption continues to decline?
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Conclusions
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Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Farm Prices1
Corn, Wheat, and Soybean
$ per bushel
8
7
Soybeans
6
5
4
Wheat
3
2
Corn
1
0
1984
1Nominal
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1989
1994
1999
2004
U.S. farm prices
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2009
2014
Livestock Prices1
$ per hundredweight
90
Beef cattle
80
70
Broilers
60
50
Hogs
40
30
1994
1Nominal
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1999
2004
2009
U.S. prices
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
2014
Conclusions
• Demand: Strong income growth in developing
countries and increasing population increases
import demand for bulk commodities and high-value
products.
• Production: Slower producivity growth, but still
nearly sufficient to maintain global level of per capita
production.
• Trade: Continued growth in global trade in most
agriculture commodities. But trade continues to be
very competitive.
• Prices: Prices for farm products, after adjusting for
inflation, will decline more slowly than in past
decades.
28 July, 2005
Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Prospects for World Agriculture
Baseline Projections to 2014
USDA-ERS baseline briefing room
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/baseline
Gracias, Obrigado, y Thank you
Ronald Trostle
Economic Research Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture