Transcript An Entry Strategy for Latin America

ChileConsult
Latin America Overview
Latin American Upstream Overview
Selected Countries Overview
Houston, November 2006
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Latin America Overview
RESERVES ARE LIKE FISH
•PROVED DEVELOPED:
•PROVED UNDEVELOPED:
• The fish is on the boat. You have weighed
him; you can smell him and you will eat him.
• The fish is on your hook in the water by the
boat and you are ready to net him. You can
tell how big he looks (they always look bigger
in the water)
•PROBABLE:
• There are fish in the lake. You may have
caught some yesterday. You may be able to
see them, but you have not caught any today.
•POSSIBLE:
• There is water in the lake. Someone may
have told you there are fish in the lake. You
have your boat on the trailer but you may go
play golf instead.
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-Selected Countries Overview - Argentina
Argentina
National name: República Argentina
President: Néstor Kirchner (2003)
Land area: 1,056,636 sq mi (2,736,690 sq km);
Population 39,921,833
Capital and largest city Buenos Aires, 13,349,000
Total exploratory wells drilled 7,648 (Onshore) / 188
(Offshore)
Current Production Mbo/d = 665 MMcf/d = 5,042
bc/d = 35,466
Cumulative Production MMbo = 9,536 Bcfg = 33,467
Remaining Proven and probable Reserves
MMbo = 3,269 Bcfg = 27,230
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-Selected Countries Overview - Argentina
Production & Consumption
Source: EIA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Argentina
Operating Companies
Alianza Petrolera Argentina SA
Antrim Energy Inc
Apache Corp
Australian Worldwide Explor NL
BASF Group
BP plc
Bridas SA
Burlington Resources Inc
Central International Corp
Chanares Herrados SA
ChevronTexaco Corp
Chubut Province Govt
Cia Argentina Comodoro Rivadavia
Cia de Minas SA
Cia General de Combustibles SA
Clear SRL
Codi SA
Codipa SA
Colhue Huapi SA
Conevial SA
Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd
Corpet SA
Cutral Co SA
Desarrollo Petrolero Ganadero SA
Devon Energy Corp
Dong Won Corp
East Asia Gas Co Ltd
EHRENCAP SA
El Paso Corp
Norwest Energy NL
Empresa Desarrollo Hidrocarburifero Provincial SA
Ormas SAICIC
Empresa Nacional del Petroleo
Petro Andina Resources Inc
Energia Argentina SA (ENARSA)
Petro Uruguay SA
Eni SpA
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)
EPP Petroleo SA
Petroleos Sud Americanos SA
Equitable Resources Energy Co
Petrolera del Comahue SA
Exploraciones Oromin SA
Exxon Mobil Corp
EZ Holding SA
Petroquimica Comodoro Rivadavia SA
Pioneer Natural Resources Co
Produmet SA
Foxpetrol SA
Gener SA
Grecoil y Compania
Gyapro SA
Repsol-YPF SA
Rio de la Plata SRL
Roch SA
Havana Group
Royal Dutch/Shell
Hidraco SA
Rutilex Hidrocarburos Argentina (RHA) SA
Hinton Production Co Inc
San Enrique Petrolera SA
Huayqui SA de Construcciones
Santa Cruz Province Govt
Ingeniera SIMA SA
Sebastian Maronese e Hijos SA
Ingenieria Alpa SA
Servoil Int'l Ltd Argentina SA
International Finance Corp
Silsy SA
ITSA SA
Techint Cia.Tecnica Int.SA
Kilwer SA
Tecnicagua SAICA
Korea National Oil Corp
Ledesma SAAI
Medanito SA
TOTAL SA
Tripetrol E & P Co
Tyax SA
Metro Holdings SA
Williams Companies Inc
Misahar Argentina SA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Argentina
• Five mayor prospective basins currently producing in the country. Activity
heavily concentrated in Neuquén and San Jorge basins
• Policy downturn may have reached bottom. Good long term stability
prospect
• Struggle to maintain hydrocarbon self-sufficiency may bring some new
incentives
• Strong economic recovery underway, giving room to gradual increase of
domestic gas prices
• Expansion of TGN and TGS pipelines easy restrictions in the gas market
• Comparatively high M&A activity. Still room for consolidation due to a
substantial number of smaller operators
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-Selected Countries Overview - Brazil
Brazil
National name: República Federativa do Brasil
President: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003)
Land area: 3,265,059 sq mi (8,456,511 sq km);
Population 188,078,227
Capital Brasília, 2,160,100
Largest cities: São Paulo, 18,333,000; Rio de
Janeiro, 11,469,000
Total exploratory wells drilled 3,754
(Onshore) / 2,216 (Offshore)
Current Production Bo/d = 1,630,384 Mcf/d =
1,711,216
Cumulative Production MMbo = 8,477 Bcf =
8,616
Remaining Reserves MMbo = 11,77 Bcf =
10,813
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-Selected Countries Overview - Brazil
Oil Production & Consumption
*Despite market liberalization, Petrobras still controls over 90 percent of
Brazil’s crude oil production.
Source: EIA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Brazil
Exploration Area under Concession
Source: ANP
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-Selected Countries Overview - Brazil
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-Selected Countries Overview - Brazil
Operating Companies
A.P. Moeller (Maersk)
Maritima
Amerada Hess Corp
Mitsubishi Corp
Anadarko Petroleum Corp
Mitsui & Co Ltd
Arbi Petroleo Ltda
Newfield Exploration Co
Aspen
Nexen Inc
Aurizonia Empreendimentos Ltda
Northern Oil ASA
BASF Group
Other partner(s)
BG Group plc
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)
BHP Billiton
Petropar
BP plc
PetroSantander Inc
ChevronTexaco Corp
Petroserv SA
Cia Brasileira de Petroleo Ipiranga
PortSea Oil & Gas NL
Devon Energy Corp
Queiroz Galvao SA
Dover Technology Inc
Rede Electrica Nacional (REN)
EDP-Energias de Portugal SA
Repsol-YPF SA
El Paso Corp
Royal Dutch/Shell
EnCana Corp
SK Corp
Eni SpA
Sojitz Corp
Exinvest
Starfish Oil & Gas SA
Exxon Mobil Corp
Statoil ASA
Grupo Iberdrola
TDC Engineering Inc
Japan National Oil Corp
Teikoku Oil Co Ltd (TOC)
Kerr-McGee Corp
TOTAL SA
Koch Industries Inc
W. Washington-SP
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-Selected Countries Overview - Brazil
• Political stability secured with recent reelection of Lula da Silva
• Regional success story, reaching self-sufficiency in spite of growing
consumption
• Shelf to ultra-deepwater off-shore believed to offer a number of
giant discoveries
• ANP taking measures to reduce Petrobras disproportionate
presence.
· Limiting number of bids per operator in recent round
· Requesting relinquishment of up to 200 mature fields
• Expanding market and distribution infrastructure generates good
gas price scenario
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-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
Colombia
National name: República de Colombia
President: Alvaro Uribe (2006)
Land area: 401,042 sq mi (1,038,699 sq km);
Population (2006 est.): 43,593,035
Capital and largest city: Bogotá, 7,594,000
Total exploratory wells drilled 2323 (Onshore) / 55
(Offshore)
Current Production Mbo/d =525.3 MMcf/d = 3,521
Cumulative Production MMbo = 6,441 Bcf =
15,416
Remaining Reserves MMbo = 1,453 Bcf = 6,711
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-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
Oil Production & Consumption
Source: IEA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
Top 10
Operators
Source: IHS
2003
Source: ANH
2006
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Source: ANH
-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
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Source: ANH
-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
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-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
Operating Companies
Adulis Resources Inc
Geoadinpro
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)
Alpha Consultores Ltd
Geoconsult Ltd
Petroleos Carbon Ltda (Petcar)
Andina Electrica
Geopetrocol Ltda
Petroleos Exploration-Petex SA
Apple Oil & Gas Ltd
Geoproduction Oil & Gas
Petroleos Nacionales SA
Aviva Petroleum Inc
Halliburton Co
Petroleum Equipment International Ltda (PEI)
Baker Hughes Inc
Harken Energy Corp
PetroSantander Inc
BHP Billiton
Houston American Energy Corp
Petrotesting Colombia SA
Bob Moore
Hughes, Dan R.
Prime Natural Resources Inc
BP plc
Ismocol de Colombia SA
Quadra Resources Inc
Burlington Resources Inc
Joshi Technologies Int'l Inc
R-3 Exploracion y Production S.A.
C & C Energy
Kappa Resources Colombia Ltd
Rancho Hermoso
ChevronTexaco Corp
Knightsbridge Investments
Rangel Petroleos Ltd (Ranpetrol)
Claudio Avila Geopozos y Cia
Loon Energy Inc
Ray Oil Tool Co
Colombian Holsan Ltda
Mercantile Int'l Petroleum Inc
Repsol-YPF SA
Colregistros
META Petroleum Co Ltd
San Domingo Group
Comercial de Oriente Ltda
Mohave Oil & Gas Corp
Sheridan Corp
Conequipos
Montecz Ltda
Sismopetrol
ConocoPhillips
Nexen Inc
Talisman Energy Inc
Drummond Ltd
Occidental Petroleum Corp
Tecnicontrol
Ecopetrol SA
Omimex Resources Inc
Tecnopetrol Inc
Emerald Energy Plc
Operaciones Petroleras Andinas (OPA)
Texican Oil Plc
Empresa Nacional del Petroleo
Pacific Stratus Ventures Ltd
TOTAL SA
Eni SpA
Parko Services SA
Union Fenosa SA
Erazo Valencia y Cia
Perenco plc
Winchester Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil Corp
Petrobank Energy & Resources Ltd
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-Selected Countries Overview - Colombia
• Alvaro Uribe’s pro-business policies to be enhanced under new
mandate
• ANH’s aggressively working to revert production decline. Bidding
activity second only to Brazil
• Number of local players and small independents in the E&P sector
creates M&A opportunities
• Mixed system of bidding rounds and open acreage makes possible
to enter low exposure TEA’s
• Best economic terms in the region, and great prospectivity (don’t
believe PEPS!)
• Improved security, but still a concern in the Llanos and Putumayo
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-Selected Countries Overview - Ecuador
Ecuador
National name: República del Ecuador
President: Alfredo Palacio (2005)
Land area: 106,888 sq mi (276,840 sq km
Population: 13,547,510
Capital: Quito 1,780,700
Largest cities: Guayaquil, 2,597,600
Total exploratory wells drilled 513 (Onshore) / 93 (Offshore)
Current Production Bo/d = 531,817 Mcf/d = 25,383
Cumulative Production MMbo = 3,836 Bcf = 771
Remaining Reserves MMbo = 4,600 Bcf = 345
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-Selected Countries Overview - Ecuador
Production & Consumption
Source: EIA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Ecuador
Production by Sector
Source: IEA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Ecuador
Operating Companies
Agip Oil Ecuador BV
OMV AG
Andes Petroleum Co
Overseas Petroleum & Investment
Andipetroleos
Pacifpetrol SA
Burlington Resources International
Perenco Ecuador Ltd
Canada Grande
Petrobras Energia Ecuador SA
Cayman Int'l Exploration Co
Petroleos Sud Americanos SA
China National Petroleum Corp
Petromanabi
Cia General de Combustibles SA
Petroriva SA
City Oriente Ltd
Repsol-YPF Ecuador Inc
Ecuador TLC SA
Santa Elena Oil & Gas
EDC Ecuador Ltd
Sinochem
Fosforocomp SA
Southern Mineral Corp
International Sovereign Energy
Tecnie SA
Murphy Ecuador Oil Ltd
TecpEcuador SA
Occidental E & P Co
Tripetrol Ecuador Inc
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-Selected Countries Overview - Ecuador
• Substantial increase in exploration and production due to the OCP
oil pipeline 2003 completion
• Good prospectivity. Abundant exploration and rehabilitation
opportunities if a future government brings some stability
• Marginal fields round failed to attract established operators. ITT
will likely be different. Offshore, who knows?
• Actions to capture a portion of the high-oil-price driven windfall
profits shouldn’t scare investors (C’mon, it’s happening in
Louisiana!)
• French IFP working with Ecuadorian government on new model
contract and fiscal regime
• Finding your way in the bureaucratic jungle can be a burden, but it
can be done. Security, on the other hand, is good
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Latin America Overview
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-Selected Countries Overview - Mexico
Mexico
Official name: Estados Unidos Mexicanos
President: Felipe Calderon (2006)
Land area: 742,485 sq mi (1,923,039 sq km);
total area: 761,606 sq mi (1,972,550 sq km)
Population (2006 est.): 107,449,525
Capital and largest city: Mexico City,
19,013,000
Total exploratory wells drilled 5,034 est.
Current Production b/d = 3,333,953 Mcfg/d = 4,817,367
Cumulative Production MMbo = 33,703 Bcfg = 54,948
Remaining Reserves MMbo = 23,500 Bcfg = 40,000
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-Selected Countries Overview - Mexico
Oil Production & Consumption
Source: EIA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Mexico
Proyected Oil Production & Consumption
(US$ 10bn/year Investment Scenario)
Source: Pemex
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-Selected Countries Overview - Mexico
Import / Export
Gas and Refined Products
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-Selected Countries Overview - Mexico
Mexico Exploration Projects
Source: Pemex
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-Selected Countries Overview - Mexico
• Closed to direct foreign (or private, to that matter) investment in
the energy sector since 1938 nationalization
• Pro-business PAN government was tentatively opening spaces
(Burgos MSC’s). Vicente Calderon is thought to have a better
political chance to enhance that policy
• Opening should be driven by necessity. Mexico’s critically low
reserve to production ratio’s problem is now compounded by the
production decline. (Cantarell, the second largest field in the world, (and
producing 65% of the total Mexican oil output) is declining at about 14% a
year)
• Pemex, most highly indebted company in the world, can not
possibly undertake the needed investment
• Opportunities without equal in the Western hemisphere, where
highly prospective country is mostly unexplored
• Scores of fields needing development or reactivation since Pemex
concentrated in a few giants
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Latin America Overview
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-Selected Countries Overview - Peru
Peru
Capital Lima
President Alan García Pérez (2006)
Area 1,285,216 km²
Population 27,968,000
Total exploratory wells drilled 1541 (Onshore) 361 (Offshore)
Current Production Mbo/d = 111 - MMcf/d = 146
Cumulative Production MMbo = 2,320 - Bcfg = 3,253
Remaining Proven and probable Reserves MMbo = 1726 (2P) Tcfg
= 16.65 (2P)
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-Selected Countries Overview - Peru
Production & Consumption
Source: EIA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Peru
Operating Companies
Aguaytia Energy del Peru SRL
Pan Andean Resources Plc (Peru)
Andean Energy Corp SA
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras)
Barrett Resources Corp
Petrolera Monterrico SA
BPZ Energy Inc, Peru
Petrolifera Petroleum del Peru SAC
Burlington Resources Peru Ltd
Petro-Tech Peruana SA
Cia Petrolera Rio Bravo SA
Pluspetrol Peru Corp SA
Cia. Consultora de Petroleo
Radial Energy Inc
Daewoo International Corp, Suc. Peruana
Ramshorn International
Edegel SA
Repsol Exploracion Peru SA
Empresa Petrolera Unipetro ABC S.A.
Sapet Development Peru Inc
Fugro Robertson Ltd
Serpet Consult SA
Grana y Montero Petrolera SA
Shona
Hess Corp
Sibirskaya NefteGazovaya (Siberian O&G Co)
Hunt Oil Co
SK Corp
Korea National Oil Corp
Sonatrach
Maple Production del Peru Ltd
Talisman Energy Inc
Mercantile Peru Oil & Gas SA
Tecpetrol SA
Occidental Petrolera del Peru Inc
Upstream Consultants Ltd
Olympic Peru Inc
Ziegler
Oracle Energy Corp
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-Selected Countries Overview - Peru
• Hopes of political stability after the Ollanta Humala scare. Alan
Garcia’s initial steps seem to show he has learned from past
mistakes
• Dramatically improved contract terms in 2003, generating a high
number of awards in 2005. Exploration activity will be revitalized,
but probably not to the 1998 level
• Blocks promoted by Perupetro are open to direct negotiation in a
first-come first-served basis. Formal bidding rounds too
• Gas potential (currently 17 TCF 2p) should be unleashed with the
construction of the Camisea LNG plant, and domestic
transportation infrastructure
• Investor-friendly environment may attract companies willing to take
exploration risk. Limited M&A opportunities
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Latin America Overview
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-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
Venezuela
National name: República Bolivariana de
Venezuela
President: Hugo Chavez (1999)
Land area: 340,560 sq mi (882,050 sq km);
total area: 352,144 sq mi (912,050 sq km)
Population 25,730,435
Capital (2003 est.): Caracas, 3,517,300
Total exploratory wells drilled 13,215 (Onshore) / 156
(Offshore)
Current Production Mbo/pd = 3,216 Mmcf/d = 6,646 b
Cumulative Production Mmbo = 55,610 Bcf = 84,550
Remaining Reserves Mmbo = 76,560 Bcf = 147,860
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-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
Production & Consumption
Source: EIA
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Source: PDVSA
-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
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-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
Operating Companies
Agencia Operadora La Ceiba CA
Eni Venezuela BV
Amoco Venezuela Petroleum Co
Exploracion y Produccion Colectiva SA
Astra Quiamare SA
Fivenez-Distral
Bitumenes Orinoco SA
Harvest-Vinccler, C.A.
BP Exploracion de Venezuela SA
Hocol Venezuela BV
CARDON IV SA
Inelectra SACA
Cartera de Inv. Venezolanas CA
IneParia
Cerro Negro
Inversiones Mata
Chevron Cardon III SA
Korea National Oil Corp
Chevron Latinoamerica SA
LASMO BV
ChevronTexaco Global
Maxus Venezuela (C.I.) Ltd
China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC)
MORUY II SA
Cia General de Combustibles SA
OLEOLUZ SA
CMS NOMECO Venezuela LDC
OMV AG
ConocoPhillips Venezuela BV
Overseas Petroleum & Investment Corp
Coparex Latina de Petroleos SA
Perenco plc
Corepli de Venezuela
Petrobras Energia Venezuela SA
Corod Produccion
Petrolera Ameriven SA
Corporacion Venezolana del Petroleo
Petrolera San Carlos SA
Cosa Ingenieros Consultores
Petrolera Zuata CA
Ecopek SA
Petroleum Technical Services Corp
PETROUDO SA
Phoenix International CA
Pluspetrol Venezuela SA
Polar Uno CA
Repsol YPF Venezuela SA
RME Venezuela
Samson Hydrocarbons SRL
Shell Venezuela SA
Sincrudos de Oriente SINCOR CA
Statoil Venezuela AS
Suelopetrol
Tecpetrol de Venezuela SA
Teikoku Oil Co Ltd
Total Oil & Gas Venezuela BV
Trio Placer Consortium
Urdaneta Gazprom SA
Veba Oel Venezuela Exploration
Vinccler Oil and Gas CA
Williams Companies Inc
YPF SA
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-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
New bid round for marginal fields in the works…
 Bidding process likely to be announced
Jan – Feb, 2007
 No plans to favor NOC’s over IOC’s.
 Independents expected to be encouraged to
bid.
 15 new mixed companies in fields
throughout the country.
 Most of the fields are likely to be located in
eastern Venezuela, specifically in the
Oficina area.
•Fields will range from small (reserves
less than 30 MMBBL) to medium
(reserves greater than 150 MMBBL).
Source: IPD
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-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
New bid round for marginal fields in the works…
Source: PDVSA/IPD
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-Selected Countries Overview - Venezuela
• Largest proven oil reserves outside the Middle East. (largest, period, if you
count the Orinoco Belt). Two thirds of total Latin American gas reserves
• Don’t take at face value what the media (and Hugo Chavez) are telling you.
The “Bolivarian Revolution’s” actual effect in the oil industry needs a second
reading:
- Increased rate of return per working interest point
- IOC’s no longer mere service contractors: now have direct title on the concession
by partnering with PDVSA in the Empresas Mixtas
- The new regime gives the IOC access to price and production upsides
- IOC’s may even be remunerated for performing operator-like functions
• Upper level PDVSA’ personnel fired after the 2003 strike, creating a
technical and managerial vacuum (and the corresponding need)
• Highly prospective basins, including gas-prone offshore.
• Both direct negotiations and access through bidding available
• The perfect “counter-move” field?
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Latin America Overview
Oil & Gas Investment Scenario
How can ChileConsult help?
•
Latin America business development, including entry strategy
planning and implementation
•
Country risk assessment and mitigation
•
Regulatory authorities’ relationship building
•
Business opportunity screening and targeting
•
Contact facilitation with international and domestic players
•
Contract Negotiations
•
Tax and contract analysis and evaluation
•
Due diligence processes, including environmental risk
assessment
•
Establishing foreign branches and securing local professional
services
Why can ChileConsult help?
•
Inside understanding of the cultural and economic forces in play
•
Extensive contact base all throughout Latin America
•
Deep knowledge of the regional oil & gas industry
•
Proven track record of deals closed
www.chileconsult.com
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Latin America Overview
Oil & Gas Investment Scenario
ChileConsult
Leading Partner
Alberto Harambour
[email protected]
An Attorney by education with extensive experience in the fields of
international negotiations and new business development, as well as in
business opportunity screening, project management and asset evaluation,
primarily in the energy industry. Alberto has been exposed to a rich and
varied experience through a career of more than 25 years, working
efficiently with people from different professional and cultural backgrounds,
and enjoys an extensive contact network in the international oil & gas
business community as well as in government and entrepreneurial circles
throughout Latin America
Self-motivated and possessing a creative problem-solving mentality, is
fluent in English and his native Spanish, and has working knowledge of
French and Portuguese.
Alberto Harambour
2004 Buffalo Terrace
Houston, TX 77019, USA
+1 713 521 2664
+1 713 922 9007 (mobile)
Based in Houston, Alberto is an active member of the Association of
International Petroleum Negotiators and the Chilean bar association. In his
spare time enjoys motorcycling, tennis and shooting sports
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