Transcript FEEM PPT Template - Privatization barometer

Understanding Privatization Policy:
Political Economy and Welfare Effects
Project Co-ordinator: Bernardo Bortolotti
(Università di Torino and FEEM)
Background: Global Privatization Revenues
Source: Privatization Barometer
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Privatization: What we know
 Strong post-privatization performance
improvements
 Macroeconomic effects: public finance,
financial market development
 Privatization methods politically motivated
 Controversial welfare effects on consumers
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Privatization: What we do not know
 What triggers privatization and make it politically
acceptable?
 Are performance improvements robust to
counterfactual analyses?
 Do governments relinquish ownership and control in
privatized firms?
 What are the overall welfare effects of divestiture in
EU?
 Is privatization per se or associated policies
(liberalization, regulation, corporate governance
reforms) that matter more?
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UPP: Strategic Objectives
 Identifying the political and institutional determinants
of privatization
 Analyzing the evolution of corporate governance in
privatized firms and their effects on perfomance
 Evaluating the welfare effects of privatization on
society
 Finding the most suitable policies to make
privatization deliver efficiency and growth
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UPP: The building blocks
 Part I. The determinants of privatization
 Part II. The methods of privatization
 Part III. the welfare effects of privatization
 Methodology: political economymultidisciplinary approach (economics,
finance, political science, legal disciplines)
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WPs implementation
The Determinants of Privatisation
WP2, Theory and Data, OECD countries
WP3, MEDA countries
ANALYSIS
The Methods of Privatisation
WP 4, Theory and Data, OECD countries
WP3, MEDA countries
WP5, Accession country
DISSEMINATION
POLICY
Survey
WP9
Assessment of Policy Instruments to
Make Privatisation Deliver
WP10
Co-ordination
and management
WP1
The Welfare effects of Privatisation
WP6 Consumers
WP7 Taxpayers
WP8 Shareholders
Stakeholders
Dissemination
WP11
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The UPP Consortium
Partic.
Role*
Participant name
Participant
short name
Country
FEEM
IT
UPF
SP
UMIL
IT
CO
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
CR
Universitat Pompeu Fabra
CR
University of Milan
CR
Universiteit van Amsterdam
UvA-CIFRA
NL
CR
IFO Institute for Economic
Research at the University of
Munich
IFO
DE
CR
Stiftung Wissenschaft und
Politik - Deutsches Institut für
Internationale Politik und
Sicherheit
SWP
DE
CR
Center for Economic Research
and Graduated Education,
Charler University
CERGE
CZ
CR
University of Padua
UNIPD
IT
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WP2: The determinants of privatisation policy
Objectives:
To provide a conceptual framework to relate the observed
differences in privatisation outcomes across countries to
different political and institutional settings.
Deliverables:
 Two theoretical papers on the determinants of privatisation
policy (month12 and 20)
 Guidelines for data collection on political institutions (month
6)
 Database on political institutions and political orientation
(month14)
 Two empirical papers on the determinants of privatisation
policy (month18 and 20)
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WP3: Privatisation in MEDA countries
Objectives:
 To examine the track record of different forms of public
ownership and control in MEDA countries
 To evaluate the determinants, methods and outcomes of
privatization in this area
Deliverables:
 Four reports on privatization and regulatory reform in the
MEDA region (month 10, 12, 18, and 20)
 Database on the privatization transactions in the MEDA
region (month 20)
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WP4: Public vs. private ownership and control
Objectives:
 To develop a theoretical models analysing the trade-offs
between private and public ownership and control of
privatized firms and to study their evolution overtime
Deliverables:
 Guidelines for data collection on ownership and control
structures (month 6)
 A theoretical paper on the trade offs between public and
private ownership and control (month14)
 Database on ownership and control structures in OECD
economies (month 14)
 Two empirical papers on the evolution of ownership an
control in privatised firms (month 18 and 20)
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WP5: Performance from transition to EU integration
Objectives:
 To explore how various ownership and management
structures affect corporate performance in a main transition
country such as the Czech Republic.
Deliverables
 A panel data set on corporate ownership and performance
in the Czech Republic (month10)
 A theoretical paper on the effect of ownership changes in
performance (month 14)
 Two empirical papers on company performance in a
transition economy (month 18 and 20)
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WP6: Welfare effects I
Objectives:
 To study the welfare impact on consumer and employees
wealth of privatisation, liberalisation and regulation of
public utilities under different policy regimes with special
reference to SGI
Deliverables
 Databases on welfare measures for consumers and
employees (month 8)
 Three empirical papers on the welfare effects of
privatisation on consumers (month 8, 14 and 20)
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WP7: Welfare effects II
Objectives
 To consider the fiscal impact of privatisation on the current
and the long-term budget and to relate it with the incentives
for government policy by means of theoretical and empirical
analysis
Deliverables
 A panel database on fiscal measures and institutions for
European countries (month 8)
 Three empirical papers on the fiscal effects of privatization
(month 12, 18, 20)
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WP8 Welfare effects III
Objectives:
 To analyse the risk and return characteristics of these
indexes using multifactor analysis
 To identify – if any - an undiversifiable risk factor
associated with the residual influence of the State in
the economic system.
Deliverables:
 A database with daily series of privatization indexes
(month 12)
 An empirical paper on the stock price performance of
privatization-related indexes (month 20)
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WP9: Expert interviews and targeted surveys
Objective:
 To develop a joint / harmonised interviewing and survey
methodology to be implemented in at least the 5 countries - Czech
Republic, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain – represented in the
consortium on privatisation choices and outcomes as perceived by
the most relevant stakeholders
Deliverables
 Standardised questionnaire to be used for enterprises in all 5
countries (month 6)
 Frame for in-depth interviews with key informants and other relevant
stakeholders in all 5 countries (month 6)
 Report on judgements and qualitative other information on politics of
privatisation user in the individual countries as well in a synthesised
cross country comparison (month 21)
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WP10: Making privatisation deliver
Objectives:
 To identify policy recommendations for successful
implementation of privatisation policies, with special
reference to the enlarged EU and MEDA countries
Deliverables
 Policy report summarising the main
recommendations (month 24)
 Regulatory guidelines on Corporate Governance,
Institutional Reform and European Financial and
Economic Integration (month 24)
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