Transcript Globalization and resistance

Towards the
Kaliningrad partnership
in EU-Russia relations
RECEP, 27 April 2005
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Area
15,100 sq. km
Population
950 000
Distance from Moscow 1289 km
Major cities
Kaliningrad
428 000
Sovetsk
50 000
Chernyakhovsk
43 000
Baltiysk
31 500
Gusev
28 000
Share in the RF total:
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Area
Population
GDP
Retail trade
Exports
Imports
 FDI
0,1%
0,7%
0,4%
0,5%
0,4%
3,7%
0,1%
Two phases of research
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Phase 1 (November 2004 – April 2005)
 Request
from the Administration of the President,
 study the Kaliningrad region in the context of EU-Russia
relations, build scenarios
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Phase 2 (starting April 2005)
 Request
from the State Duma
 scenarios of the socioeconomic development
Phase 1: Report outline
Introduction (Christer Pursiainen)
Scenarios (Sergei Medvedev)
1.
2.
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Road Maps (Christer Pursiainen)
3.
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4.
5.
Russian Scenarios
EU Scenarios
EU-Russia Scenarios
Kaliningrad Scenarios
Towards a Common Economic Space
The EU-Russia Partnership Road Map
The Kaliningrad Partnership Road Map
Legal Instruments (Mark Entin)
Statistics and Bibliography (Marina Cherkovets)
Research methodology
R1
E1
K1 RE1
R2
E2
K2 RE2
R3
E3
European
scenarios
Kaliningrad
Road map
K3 RE3
Russian
scenarios
Kaliningrad
Partnership
Legal
instruments
Scenario template
Centralized/
Integrated
Economic axis
Political axis
Statist
Regulated
Decentralized/
Networked
Liberal
Global
Russian scenarios
Centralized/
Integrated
R3: Bureaucratic
Capitalism
R1: Administrative
Modernization
Statist
Regulated
Liberal
Global
R2: Liberal
Modernization
Decentralized/
Networked
EU scenarios
Centralized/
Integrated
E3: Fortress
Europe
E1: Global
Actor
Statist
Regulated
Liberal
Global
E2: Network
Europe
Decentralized/
Networked
Russia-EU scenario matrix
Russia
Liberal
Modernization
Administrative
Modernization
Bureaucratic
Capitalism
Global Actor
Partnership
Muddling
Through
Cold Peace
Network
Europe
Muddling
Through
Muddling
Through
Cold Peace
Fortress
Europe
Cold Peace
Cold Peace
Cold Peace
Europe
Kaliningrad in Russia-EU scenarios
Russia
Liberal
Modernization
Administrative
Modernization
Bureaucratic
Capitalism
Global Actor
Kaliningrad
partnership
Stagnation/
Preferences
Outpost
Network
Europe
Stagnation/
Preferences
Stagnation/
Preferences
Outpost
Fortress
Europe
Outpost
Outpost
Outpost
Europe
Kaliningrad in Russia-EU scenarios
Russia
Europe
Global Actor
Network
Europe
Fortress
Europe
Liberal
Modernization
Administrative
Modernization
Bureaucratic
Capitalism
Kaliningrad
partnership
Stagnation/
Preferences
Outpost
Preferences
Preferences
Outpost
Outpost
Kaliningrad
partnership
Stagnation/
Stagnation/
Outpost
Outpost
Guidelines for Kaliningrad Partnership
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Integration into the European economic space
Creating the institutional base of cooperation
Modifying the SEZ regime
Improving federal and regional governance
Improving business climate and lowering administrative
barriers
Development of infrastructure
Export incentives
Supporting small and medium business
Impact of Kaliningrad Partnership
 From
being a mere corollary, the Partnership can become a
shaping factor of EU-Russia relations
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Forward implementation of European Economic Space
Adaptation by Russia of part of the acquis
Improving EU-Russia compatibility through a common interface
 Promoting
cooperative regionality and cross-border
networks
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Linkage to existing regional institutions (CBSS, NCM)
 Tapping
into the existing EU instruments (Northern
Dimension, INTERREG, ENI) without creating new
institutions and ad-hoc structures
Kaliningrad Partnership Road Map
2005
• Creating a joint EU-RF list of policy priorities for Kaliningrad.
• Done in connection with drafting the third Northern Dimension Action
Plan (2007-2009), e.g., in the form of ND Kaliningrad Partnership
2006
• Connecting to regional organizations (CBSS, the Nordic Council of
Ministers)
• Detailing policy priorities, developing concrete projects at regional and
local levels by local governments, businesses and NGOs from
Kaliningrad and the larger Baltic Sea region
2007
2009
Securing linkage between the local and regional projects and the
financial instruments: the European Neighborhood Instrument (ENI,
replacing TACIS in 2007), INTERREG programs, Euroregions, IFIs
(EBRD, NIB etc.)
2010
• Establishing Kaliningrad Partnership
• Project implementation
• Project evaluation
• New action plan for 2010-2012
Legal Instruments
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Comparing legal models for the development of Kaliningrad
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Selecting an optimal model
Various methods for legal regulation
Using the newly adopted Russian legislation
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Concession Law
Anti-monopoly Law
Tax Law
Customs Law
Legal regulation of Foreign Economic Activity
Law on Special Economic Zones
Phase 2: Research Issues
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Study of the shaping factors
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EU enlargement
New Russian law on the SEZ (from 2006 on)
The forthcoming Common Economic Space
Scenarios of socioeconomic development
Desired outcomes
Road maps
Economic/legal instruments
Appendix:
Kaliningrad Stats
Population Dynamics
2
%0
0
-2
Russian Federation
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad Region
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-4
-6
-8
-10
Russian Federation
16
North-West Federal
District
Kaliningrad Region
14
12
10
%0
4
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Natural change, per 1000
population (‰)
1990 1995
1996 1997
1998
1999 2000
Net migration, per 1000
population (‰)
2001 2002
Population Dynamics
Russian Federation
70
20
69
North-West Federal District
68
Kaliningrad Region
18
16
66
%0
years
67
65
14
12
64
63
10
62
8
61
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Life expectancy at birth
2001
2002
2003
Russian Federation
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad Region
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Infant mortality rate (infant deaths
under 1 year per 1000 live births)
Economy
18
130
16
14
10
%
%
Kaliningrad region
110
12
8
100
6
Russian Federation
90
4
North West Federal
District
Kaliningrad region
80
2
Russian Federation
120
0
1992 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Unemployment rate
70
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
GRP index (% to the previous year)
Standard of living
130
120
Kainingrad region
110
110
100
100
90
90
%
%
120
130
Russian Federation
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
Russian Federation
Kainingrad region
50
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Changes in real monetary
income, % change on previous
year
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Change in real wage, % change on
previous year
Industry
140
Energy production
600
500
Oil and gas
condensate
Passenger cars
400
TV sets
300
Paper
200
Meat
60
100
Fish and seafood
50
0
120
%
700
130
Russian Federation
Kaliningrad
110
%
100
90
80
20
03
1H
20
04
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
90
70
Real industrial production
index, % on the previous year
Canned fish
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Goods Production Index
Investment Climate
(Kaliningrad in the Rating of Investment Potential and Risk among 89 regions of
the Russian Federation)
Investment Potential
Investment Risk
37
22
2003-2004 to
2003-2002
-2
-9
2003-2004 to
1998-1999
5
-17
Rating 2003-2004
Change in rating
Rating of the components
Labour potential
52
Legal risk
45
Consumption potential
58
Political risk
68
Production potential
53
Economic risk
29
Financial potential
52
Financial risk
6
Institutional potential
29
Social risk
12
Innovation potential
54
Criminal risk
72
Infrastructure potential
3
Environmental risk
Natural resources
potential
40
36
Investment Climate
180
160
0,7
North-West Federal District
Kaliningrad region
140
0,6
120
0,5
100
0,4
%
80
Kaliningrad %
in the RF total
0,3
60
0,2
40
0,1
20
0,0
0
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Real index of investment in
fixed capital, % change to the
previous year
2003
19
90
19
95
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
%
0,8
Russian Federation
Investment in fixed capital
Foreign Investment
Kainingrad region
56,2
% of the RF total
47,7
50
20
0,5
30
24,6
23,5
18,3 19,1
16
11,3
10
0,4
0,3
0,2
%
USD mln
40
21,5
0,7
0,6
39,4
20
25
0,8
mln USD
60
15
14
12,7
10,6
10
5
9,2
6,6
4,1
5,9
3,2
0,1
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Foreign investment in the
Kaliningrad Region
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Direct Foreign investment
in the Kaliningrad Region
External Trade
Import
Foodstuf
fs
24%
Machiner
y&parts
45%
Export
Petroche
m icals
8%
Metals
7%
Other
goods
16%
Machiner
y parts
16%
Oil&oil
products
51%
Wood&fur
niture
11%
Other
goods
22%
Goods structure of Kaliningrad’s import and export (first half of 2004)
External Trade
2500
250
Import
mln USD
2000
201,4
186
200
Export
184,8
167,5
163,9
168,3
150,7
149
Import
137,4
150
1500
Export
118,9
92,5
100
69
60,6
52,2
1000
50
18,5
500
103,8
Balance
88,7
Turnover
67,4
42,3
25,1
8,4
15,1
13,25
16,6
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
0
Import and Export Dynamics in
Kaliningrad Region
Trade turnover between
Kaliningrad region and Lithuania in
1998–2003 (mln USD)