Transcript Slide 1

Integrating Convective Weather
Forecasts with the Traffic
Management Advisor (TMA)
Jim Stobie and Bob Gillen,
ENSCO, Inc.
Wade Lester,
Embry Riddle Aeronautical University
Integrated Airport Initiative
(Florida NextGen Demonstration)
• A group of industry leaders to perform applied
research and promote NextGen concepts
• Formed March, 2006
• Catalyst for the development of what is now the
Daytona Beach NextGen Test Bed
• Membership: Embry Riddle Aeronautical
University (ERAU) (co-lead), Lockheed Martin
(co-lead), ENSCO, Mosaic ATM, Transtech,
Boeing, CSC, Frequentis, Sensis, Volpe Center,
Barco, Jeppesen, Harris, Daytona Beach
International Airport and Volusia County
Overview
• 2008 Project Objective
• Traffic Management Advisor (TMA)
• En Route Automation Modernization
(ERAM)
• A first step toward improving Weather in
TMA and ERAM (18 Nov Demo)
• What’s Next?
Project Objective
• Network-enabled integration of predictive weather into TMA and
ERAM
– “Reduce Weather Impact” solution set in the NextGen Implementation
Plan
• Problem Statement
– During convective weather events, aircraft vector around the weather.
This results in estimated time of arrival (ETA) and scheduled time of
arrival (STA) diverging in TMA, rendering it ineffective. Controllers are
forced to switch to miles-in-trail, which reduces airport arrival rates
– Lack of common predictive weather information being displayed to the
TMU Specialists, Supervisors and Controllers on ERAM and TMA
• Desired Outcomes
– An open architecture (SWIM-like) to integrate predictive weather into
ERAM and TMA
– The integration of predictive weather into decision support tools to
improve operations by allowing for proactive planning
Traffic Management Advisor (TMA)
•
TMA is an ARTCC-based decision support tool designed to maximize airport arrival
rates.
•
TMA calculates a scheduled time of arrival for aircraft that allows the ARTCC to
deliver an optimum rate to the TRACON based on runway acceptance rate and fleet
mix.
•
Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) use TMA to monitor and manage arrival
demand via graphical displays, TGUI, PGUI and load graph (see later slides).
•
ARTCC controllers use TMA information displayed on ERAM R-pos to Time Base
Meter (TBM) traffic into the TRACON. They use speed, vectors and holding to meet
scheduled meter fix crossing times. Metering times are displayed to controllers via
lists and delay times associated with the data blocks of individual aircraft on R-pos
display (see later slides).
•
TMA Weather Data
– TMA receives RUC upper level winds and temperatures for use in trajectory
modeling
– Convective weather forecasts are currently not received by TMA
TMA Reference Points*
*From: NASA Ames, http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.html
TMA Timeline Graphical User interface (TGUI)*
* From: Kim, C. (2006): TMA Integrated Metrics Model, Final Report, Howard University, 18 Oct 2006.
TMA Plain View Graphical User Interface (PGUI)*
*From: NASA Ames, http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.html
TMA Load Graph*
*From: NASA Ames, http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.html
ERAM
• Radar-Position (R-pos) (formerly DSR)
– Situational display for controllers who are talking to aircraft and
directing traffic
– Next to each aircraft data block it display TMA delay requirement
number in minutes
– Displays metering information (STA, delay minutes) information
next to each aircraft data block
– Displays NEXRAD mosaics from WARP
• Data-Position (D-pos) (formerly URET)
– Displays electronic flight data
– Displays conflict probe information
– Displays RUC upper level winds/temps
Sample ERAM R-pos Display
Aircraft Data Block
NEXRAD
Mosaic
Sample ERAM D-pos Display
ERAM D-pos Wind Display
Current TMA/ERAM System
• ERAM receives Radar data, user commands including flight plans,
RUC data (Wind and temperature) and NEXRAD weather data
• ERAM sends flight information and track data to TMA
• TMA generates metering data including Scheduled Time of Arrivals
(STA) and delay value and sends them to ERAM
• ERAM displays STA and ETA deviations on R-pos aircraft data block
• R-pos Controller communicates metering data to pilot via voice
communication
• During convective weather aircraft deviations extend flight path and
result in late arrival of aircraft to metering fixes.
• Excessive delays may result in TMA metering not being used and
reverting to less efficient “miles in trail”
18 Nov Demo Scenarios
• Jacksonville Sectors ZJX33, ZJX49, ZJX78, ZJX15
• Scenario 1 : Good Weather / Today’s System
– Aircraft fly normal arrival
– Aircraft cross metering fixes at Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA)
• Scenario 2 : Bad Weather / Today’s System
– Aircraft vectored around convective weather
– ETA diverges from STA as aircraft are vectored around weather
• Scenario 3 : Bad Weather / System Modifications
– Aircraft flight plans amended and rerouted around convective
weather prior to freeze horizon
– Aircraft follow same trajectory around weather used in Scenario 2
– Aircraft cross metering fixes at STA
Demo Scenarios : Sectors
49
33
78
120
TMA Freeze
Horizon
NM
+
+ +
BUGGZ
PIGLT
LEESE
}
Transition Fixes
15
Orlanda International
Airport (MCO)
Significant Weather Day
•
9 August chosen •
for demonstration
1100 Local
Typical summer pattern
in Florida with “popup”
thunderstorms along
sea-breeze fronts
•
Storm coverage
allowed for insector rerouting
1300 Local
Weather Forecast Data Source
• WRF Model chosen for study since it was already configured for
Florida for use by NASA and by NWS in Melbourne, FL
– Already set up to run over the FL peninsula and the output formats are
clearly understood
– Initialized with NEXRAD radar, 4 km resolution, 42 levels, run every 3
hours with 5 minute outputs (Composite Reflectivity and Echo Tops)
– Polygons based on 35 dBZ, altitude set to FL 400
• Originally, much larger time-scales (> 2 hours) were envisioned for
the forecast data.
– Covered extended timescales for strategic planning for Traffic Flow
Management and shorter Tactical timescales
– Single source for data would ensure consistency across timescales
• Demo timescale limited to 0-1 hours forecast period
– Single sector used for demonstration
– Moved the TMA freeze horizon in to 120 miles in order to use TMA
within the targeted sector
Scenario 1 : Good Weather /
Current System
• TMU Specialist
– TMA displays STA/ETA based on filed flight plan
– Sequence of aircraft arrivals fixed at freeze horizon
• ERAM R-Display
– Datablock shows STA received from TMA
– Aircraft arriving at metering fix at STA
• Scenario 1 demonstrated how TMA is used to
provide effective flow in delivering aircraft to
metering fixes during normal weather conditions
Scenario 2 : Bad Weather /
Current System
• TMU Specialist
– Reviews convective weather on various displays to develop a mental
view of convective weather
– Reviews arrivals on TMA PGUI to identify aircraft affected by convective
weather
– TMU updates ESIS, contacts AT Supervisor to notify of convective
weather impact and reroute strategy
• ERAM R-Display
– Aircraft vector around convective weather
– Vectoring around weather causes delay in meeting STA
– Excessive delays are displayed in the data block as aircraft deviate from
flight plan
– Aircraft arrives at metering fix behind schedule
• Switch to less efficient miles-in-trail
Scenario 3 : Bad Weather /
System Modifications
• Convective Weather Forecast published via the Forecast Convective
Weather service to TMA and ERAM
• TMA displays Convective Weather Constrained Areas on the PGUI
• ERAM performs 4D Trajectory conflict probe against 4D Convective
Weather constrained areas and displays Forecast Convective
Weather and Weather Conflicts on GPD
• D-Controller uses ‘Trial Plan Reroute’ to reroute aircraft around
convective weather constrained areas
• R-Side Controller issues reroute to pilot via voice communication
• Pilot reroutes aircraft per flight plan amendment but deviates as
required to adjust for weather conditions
• ERAM sends flight plan amendment to TMA
• TMA updates metering list ETA/STA and sends updated metering
data to ERAM
• ERAM displays updated ETA/STA on R-Console in Data block and
Metering List
Scenarios Summary
•
Scenario 1 demonstrated how TMA is used to provide effective flow in
delivering aircraft to metering fixes during normal weather conditions
•
Scenario 2 demonstrated how TMA becomes less effective when convective
weather requires aircraft to deviate from the planned flight path
– Vectoring of aircraft extends flight path and results in late arrival to metering fixes
– Excessive delays may result in TMA metering not being used and reverting to
‘miles in trail’
•
Scenario 3 demonstrated how enhancements could extend the use of TMA
during convective weather
– Provide common predictive weather information to the TMU/Controllers
– Aid in the identification/resolution of convective weather conflicts
– Flight plan amendments enable TMA to calculate an accurate trajectory to
support effective calculation of aircraft STA/ETA to metering fixes
What’s Next?
• Replace WRF model forecast with more
practical 0-1 hr forecast
– CIWS
• Investigate products for longer term TMA
projections (2-6 hours)
– CoSPA
• Investigate how to incorporate forecast
uncertainty
Backup Slides
FAA Products
• Several FAA products were considered for the study
– Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)
• Polygons too large with insufficient detail for this effort
– Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
• Could be converted into forecast convective cells with some effort
• Original forecast period (>2 hours) prevented adoption
• Should be considered for follow-up work as timeframe has been
reduced
– Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA)
• Still in development stage at initial kickoff
• Should be included in future activities
– Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS)
• Focus on Terminal area limits application beyond very close sectors
Outcome Summary
• Observed:
– Convective weather forecast has been integrated into an existing
automation system and decision support tool via an open
architecture (SWIM-like) network
• Alternative forecast weather products (e.g. CIWS, CoSPA) that can
be modified to meet the published ICD can be “plugged in” for
assessment
– Common situational awareness of forecast weather between
TMU and controller
– Updated flight information exchanged between ERAM and TMA
– TMA has used an alternative source for its RUC winds data, via
the SWIM-like network
• Remaining:
– Research and metrics collection regarding improvement in the
arrival flow during convective weather events
Scenario 2 : Bad Weather /
Today’s System (2)
• TMA PGUI
– Aircraft deviate from planned route when vectoring around
convective weather.
– TMA lacks information to determine revised trajectory
– TMA uses reconformance logic to model trajectory and calculate
ETA
• Scenario 2 demonstrated how TMA becomes less
effective when convective weather requires aircraft to
deviate from the planned flight path
– Vectoring of aircraft extends flight path and results in late arrival
to metering fixes
– Excessive delays may result in TMA metering not being used
and reverting to ‘miles-in-trail’
Scenario 3 : Bad Weather /
System Modifications
• Convective Weather
– Convective Weather data enters via “Weather and Research Forecast
(WRF) model
– Cx Weather Forecast published via the Forecast Convective Weather
service to TMA and ERAM via an Enterprise Service Bus.
• TMA
– TMA displays Convective Weather Constrained Areas (Polygons) on the
PGUI
– TMU specialist reviews convective weather impacts on PGUI
• “Minutes in Future” slider bar to review movement of convective weather
• Can filter Convective Weather constrained areas by altitude,
• Used to identify impacted aircraft and to develop strategy to route aircraft
around convective weather
– TMU updates ESIS and contacts AT Supervisor to notify of convective
weather impact and reroute strategy
Scenario 3 : Bad Weather /
System Modifications (2)
•
ERAM
–
–
–
–
ERAM performs 4D Trajectory conflict probe against 4D Convective Weather constrained
areas
ERAM updates D-Pos Aircraft list with Convective Weather Alerts for conflicts in Controllers
sector.
ERAM displays Convective Weather Constrained Areas (Polygons) in the D-POS GPD
window.
D-Controller reviews aircraft conflicts with convective weather in the Graphic Plan Display
(GPD)
•
–
D-Controller can use enhanced ‘Trial Plan Reroute’ to point and click reroute around
convective weather constrained area
•
•
•
–
•
•
‘Future Time’ slider bar displays aircraft and weather at a future point in time (Up to 60 minutes)
Can zoom in/out on the GPD that selects a range from 25-1000 nmi
Probes for Convective weather and aircraft conflicts
D-Side Controller submits ‘Trial Plan Reroute’
R-Side Controller issues reroute to pilot via voice communication
Pilot reroutes aircraft per flight plan amendment
–
•
Displays trajectory conflicts against 4D convective weather constrained areas
Pilot deviates as required to adjust for weather conditions
ERAM updates/ publishes flight plan amendment via SWIM flight object and HADDS
interface
Scenario 3 : Bad Weather /
System Modifications (3)
• TMA
– TMA receives flight plan amendment via HADDS Interface and
recalculates flight trajectory and flight ETA/STA
– TMA updates metering list ETA/STA on PGUI/TGUI
– TMA sends updated metering list to ERAM via HADDS interface
• ERAM R-Console
– ERAM receives updated metering data via HADDS Interface
– ERAM displays updated ETA/STA on R-Console in Datablock
and Metering List
• Flight plan amendments enable TMA to calculate an
accurate trajectory to support effective calculation of
aircraft STA/ETA to metering fixes