Transcript Слайд 1 - Euroakadeemia

Alexander Sergunin
St. Petersburg State University
E-mail: [email protected]
Euroacademy Tallinn
December 13, 2013
The 21st century is an age of
 information revolution;
 Bio-technologies;
 Nanotechnologies;
 post-industrial age
In geographical terms, it is an age of
 The Asia-Pacific
 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa)
 More recently – the Arctic
 To
discuss the future role of the
Arctic for the humankind
 To identify the drivers of
instability in the region as well as
the potential incentives for
cooperation between the regional
players
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Oil and gas: 90 million barrels of oil, 47.3 trillion
cubic meters of gas and 44 billion barrels of gas
condensate. In other words, this is nearly 25% of
the world’s hydrocarbon unproven reserves. Over
60% of the Arctic oil and gas reserves are in the
territories that Russia owns or claims.
Coal: potential coal reserves in Russia’s Arctic
region accounting for nearly half of the country’s
coal resources equal 780 bln tons with 81 bln
tons of this figure - coking coals.
Rare and rare-earth metals and minerals in Russia’s Arctic Zone (RAZ):
 over half of Russia’s apatite concentrate reserves (over 90% reserves
are located in the Kola Peninsula, the Taimyr Peninsula, Yakutia and
Chukotka);
 nickel and cobalt (85% reserves – Norilsk; the rest – the Kola
Peninsula);
 copper (about 60% reserves are in Norilsk and the Kola Peninsula);
 platinum group elements (over 98% - in Norilsk and the Kola
Peninsula);
 tin (over 75% proven reserves and 50% predicted);
 mercury (with the main proven reserves in Chukotka and big
deposits in Taimyr);
 gold and silver (90%);
 diamonds (over 99% of proven resources - Yakutia, the Archangelsk
Region and Taimyr).
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Unique animals: the polar bear, the polar fox,
the narwhal, the killer whale, the walrus and
the white whale.
Fish: over 150 fish species live in the Arctic
and sub-Arctic waters, including the most
important ones for fisheries - the cod, the
herring, the haddock and the flounder. The
RAZ fisheries account for nearly 15% of the
fish catch and sea food production in Russia.
The Bering Sea (sub-Arctic area): 50% of the
U.S. fish catch.
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The route between Hamburg and Yokohama through the Suez Canal (18,350
kilometers) would be reduced to 11,100 kilometers by using the NSR, which
in theory reduces the sailing time from 22 to 15 days; in other words, a 40%
reduction.
The route between Rotterdam and Shanghai would be reduced from 22,200
kilometers (via the Cape of Good Hope) to 14,000 using the NSR.
The volatile situation in the Middle East, especially since the “Arab spring” of
2011, the overburdening of the Suez Canal, rising tensions in the Hormuz
Strait and, more importantly, growing piracy in the Horn of Africa, all
encourage the development of new alternatives.
Transit from Russia to the North American continent would also be made
shorter by crossing the Arctic. Murmansk is only 9,600 kilometers from
Vancouver via the Bering Strait, but is 16,000 kilometers via the Panama
Canal.
Similar savings are gained when navigating the North-Western Passage along
the northern coast of North America instead of the southern trek via the
Panama Canal.
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On the one hand, the GCC, specifically the global
warming causing the Arctic ice thaw, makes the
natural resources and transport communications
more accessible for operation. The emergence of
the Arctic tourism.
On the other hand, there are numerous negative
implications of the GCC: radical changes in the
Arctic and sub-Arctic eco- and bio-systems that
affect fisheries and indigenous peoples’
economies; global weather change; growing
competition for natural resources and sea routes.
Bad news: The Arctic ice area has contracted by
8% since 1978 while the temperature of the
permafrost upper layer went up by 3°. If the
warming trend continues, scholars expect
that, by 2099, the temperature will go up by
6.4°, the sea level will rise by 0.59 cm and the
ocean will be completely ice-free in summer.
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The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg):
the ‘instability point’ in the high Arctic latitudes climate
rather than a stable global warming trend. There was a
cooling trend in the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice cover
in 2008 and 2013.
The cycle theory: Ice growth was observed in 1900-1919 and
1938-1968 with its shrinkage in 1918-1938 and since 1968
till today.
However, the cycle hypothesis does not contradict the theory
that the current climate changes are caused by man.
According to IPCC data, the existence of cycles is undeniable,
but they have been superimposed over the last 10- 20 years
by short-term increases of the anthropogenic greenhouse
effect.
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The Arctic oil and gas deposits are overestimated.
Development and exploitation of these resources
will remain costly in the foreseeable future.
The Western and Russian energy companies are not
ready to invest to risky Arctic projects. They prefer
less risky and more profitable options.
No safe technologies for off-shore drilling for the
moment.
No safe means for oil and liquid gas transportation
by sea routes.
‘Shale gas revolution’ in the U.S.
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The disappearance of the ice-cap during the
summer does not mean that the Arctic Ocean
will become totally ice-free. Ice can quickly
form in very different locations and can take
ships by surprise and reduce the
predictability of the journey. There will still be
icebergs; and the danger of collision will be
considerable.
Travelling in extreme climate is difficult in
technical terms because it requires ice-class
vessels, including ice-breaking capacities.
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In case of the NSR, there are numerous
administrative-technical barriers to be taken into
account such as the Russian demands that foreign
ships pay fees for chartering icebreakers, obtaining
weather and ice reports, and hiring Russian pilots
to guide vessels in the straits. These expenses are
considered too costly by the main international
shipping companies.
The insurance tends to be very expensive because
the international insurance companies have to take
into account the NSR and NWP’s unpredictability in
terms of time and conditions of cargo shipments.
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Presently, the NSR has a limited operational rescue
system – only three rescue centers in Dikson, Tiksi
and Pevek. The number of ports that are able to host
ships in need of repairs is insufficient, while the risks
of collision are considerable because of the
unpredictable ice conditions and because the lanes of
direction are not clearly defined. The Russian
government plans to build 10 search and rescue
centers along the Russian Arctic coastline but the
question whether these plans would come true or not
and whether these centers would be sufficient to
develop the NSR up to the level of international safety
standards remains open to discussion.
In 2013 the NSR Administration got 701
applications, 620 were approved and 81 were
declined. The NSR Administration’s
prognoses: the freight traffic through the NSR
will exceed one million tons in 2013.
The hopes that the volume of freight traffic will
reach 35–40 million tons per year by 2020
are unrealistic.
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Russian is an expansionist/revisionist country that aims at
establishing its control over the Arctic natural resources (e.g.,
Chilingarov’s flag planting in 2007; Moscow’s claims on the
Lomonosov and Mendeleev ridges, etc.)
Russia is a militarist power: resumption of air and maritime
space patrolling in the Arctic and North Atlantic;
modernization of the Northern Fleet (both its conventional
and nuclear components); creation of a special Arctic task
force; border guard build-up and strengthening border
controls around the Arctic Ocean’s coastline
Russia is an emerging world ‘energy hegemon’ because of the
Arctic natural resources
Russia is a ‘colossus with feet of clay’ because the Arctic oil
and gas deposits are overestimated + the U.S. ‘shale gas
revolution’
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In 2009, the Russian government granted a contract to
Tupolev company to develop a new stealth bomber the
PAK-DA that would replace the Tu-22M, the Tu-160
and the Tu-95MS. The prototype is scheduled to fly in
2020 and the aircraft is expected to enter service only
in 2025–30.
Plans to upgrade three heavy nuclear-powered missile
cruisers, the Admiral Lazarev, the Admiral Nakhimov,
and the Admiral Ushakov.
The purchase of two Mistrals helicopter carriers from
France is delayed.
Plans to build eight Admiral Gorshkov class and six
Krivak class frigates.
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The Delta IV submarines will be provided with a new sonar system
and the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Sineva (Skiff
SSN-23).
The Typhoon-class strategic submarines will be re-equipped with
long-range cruise missiles and the Bulava system, a new generation
solid-fuel SLBM, designed to avoid possible future U.S. anti-ballistic
missile defense weapons, and which can cover a distance of more
than 9,000 kilometers. For the time-being, only one Typhoon-class
strategic submarine, the Dmitri Donskoy, has been modernized and
deployed to the Northern Fleet.
The Typhoon-class submarines should be replaced with the new
Borey-class fourth generation strategic submarines. 8 submarines
will be built: 4 for the Northern Fleet and 4 for the Pacific Fleet. The
Yuri Dolgoruky - has been in operation by the Northern Fleet since
January 2013. Two others are under the sea trials.
The "Aleksandr Nevsky" Borey-class
nuclear missile submarine sailing out from
the Sevmash yard into the White
Sea. (Photo: Sevmash)
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To provide the logistical and administrative
support to the Northern Fleet a new Arctic
Center for Material and Technical Support
with a staff of more than 15,000 was
created in 2012.
The 200th independent motorized infantry
brigade (Pechenga) will be operational in
2016.
Moscow plans to build 20 border guard
stations along the Arctic Ocean’s coastline.
10 SAR centers will be created by 2016.
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No military build-up in the Arctic. There are
modernization programs and the efforts to
increase the coastal states’ control over the
vast Northern territories to prevent nontraditional security challenges.
The military force has changed its meaning in
the Arctic context. Now it does not serve the
global East-West confrontation; rather, it aims
at protection of the economic interests of the
regional players.
It is easier to solve the existing problems
through negotiations than by means of war.
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Value-based approach (neo-liberalism): the Arctic (its natural
resources and sea routes) is a common humankind’s
heritage/asset; UNCLOS regime; regional organizations such as
the Arctic Council and Barents-Euro-Arctic Council is a part of
the global governance system; the AC’s and BEAC’s main
priorities should be environment protection and the ‘human
dimension’. A future Arctic comprehensive treaty (similar to the
Antarctic Treaty)?
Interest-based approach (geopolitics and neo-realism): The
coastal states view the Arctic as a ‘strategic resource base’; their
national interests in the region should be secured; each UNCLOS,
AC and BEAC member-state uses these institutions to
protect/promote its national interests in the region.
Mixture (combination) of two approaches: for example, Russia’s
Arctic Strategies of 2008 and 2013, Norwegian and Canadian
High North strategies.
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Securitized approach: each Arctic problem is
seen from the national security point of view
- from ecological problems and fisheries to
territorial disputes and sea routes (e.g. the
Russian Arctic strategy-2013)
De-securitized (technocratic/instrumentalist)
approach: most of the Arctic problems can be
solved beyond the security context, in a
‘normal way’.
Arctic-5
Arctic-8
Non-Arctic
states and
actors
Russia
China
Denmark
U.S.
Canada
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environmental protection and monitoring;
large-scale studies of the Arctic climate
change, the status of Arctic wild animals and
plants, social, economic and demographic
trends in the Far North;
preservation of the unique way of life and
culture of the people of the North;
search and rescue operations;
combating oil spills and other man-made
disasters, etc.
On the one hand, numerous conflicts driven
both by natural and anthropogenic factors,
are looming ahead.
On the other hand, the Arctic is a rapidly
developing region fraught not only with
problems but offering a variety of
opportunities. It is a kind of testing ground
which, contingent on reasonable and prudent
use, could enable to design new models and
mechanisms of international cooperation.
Thank you!