Transcript DCP Workshop - tech

Convergence
Digital Broadcasting-Mobile
Philips’ perspective on
critical challenges regarding
Future Value Chains
Arthur Weyns
VP Global Affairs
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
What does the future look like?
Disruptiv
e
events
End-user
needs
Technolog
y trends
FUTURE
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
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11
End-user Needs & Trends
• People are increasingly looking for:
– Personal empowerment ( freedom, control,
simplicity)
– Engaging in experiences (multi-sensorial)
– Creating experimentation & discovery (creativity)
– Fluid & open social grouping (sharing, belonging)
– Personal care & well being (monitoring, security)
– Environmental neutral footprint (sustainable
planet)
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
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What does this mean for convergence of dig
broadcasting and mobile?
Lessons from past: Convergence of dig. telecom and mobile
Communication
Type of owner
Marketsize (pcs)
Wired
Phone (POT)
Cordless
Phone
Car/Sattelite
Phone
Mobile/personal
Phone
family
family
individual
100 mln /y
10 mln/y
professional
`
100K - 1 mln/y
car/away from home
everywhere
1 bln/y
Place of usage
home
Price of device
low
medium
high
zero-medim
Device lifetime
5-10 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
0.5 years
high
medium
high
Medium/high
1/country
few /country
communication
communication,
SMS/MMS, games,
ring tones, …
Price of services
Price of
infrastructure
# Infrastructure
providers
home
low (zero for IP low (zero for incommunication) house& IP comm.)
zero (oprators)
very high (esp
digging in cables) low (end-user)
1/country
1/country
ISPs
Type of
communication
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
services
communication
4
What does this mean for convergence of dig
broadcasting and mobile?
Will Mobile TV become Personal TV/Personal Access Device?
Home TV
Portable TV
Mobile TV
Personal TV
Type of owner
family
family
mobile freak?
individual
Market (pcs)
100-200 mln /y
1 mln/y
1 - 10 mln/y
100-500 mln/y?
Place of usage
home
away
everywhere if signal
everywhere
Price of device
low - high
low
medium
zero-medium
Device lifetime
10 years
5-10 years
1-2 years
0.5-1 year?
Price of services
low (public)
medium ( pay)
zero (public)
low (satellite)
low-medium
low?
high (esp. cable)
zero
zero
low-medium
many
few
few
many?
TV- Device
Price of
infrastructure
# Infrastructure
providers
Type of
services
passive TV
entertainment
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
passive TV
entertainment
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(passive) TV
entertainment
interactive info/
TV entertainment
communication
Managing Content ecosystem becomes paramount
in the mobile TV/personal TV era
Content
Creation
N
O
W
Current
content
creators
+
F
U “Consumer
reporter”
T
U
R
E
Content
Aggregation
Current
content
aggregators
+
ISPs
“Consumer
reporter”
Content
Distribution
Content
Content
Access
Content
Consumption
Broadcasters
Access
Telecom operators
device
Satellite operators manufacturers
Family /consumer
at home
+
ISPs
(one –to-many
+
User communities one-to-one)
+
Ambient
solution
providers
+
Individual
anywhere
Access
Intermediaries
Changes will be disruptive - outcome very unclear
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Value chain (R)evolution
• Traditional business models and value chains will change
drastically:
– Media/Content value chain: consumer-reporter, from mass to individual focus,
largely internet based
– Advertisement business model: from mass to individual targeting
– Key brands: Service & Solution providers iso Device manufacturers
• Major disruptive events will influence people behaviour :
–
–
–
–
–
–
Global warming
High price of energy
People Migration
Cyber crime
Economic power shifts
-…
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
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Uncertainty of Future Use
- Currently 50% of mobile TV is done @ home*
so Personalization is more important than Mobility
- Will mobile TV business evolve into personal TV or even
into a “Personal access anywhere to my preferred content
and community” business ?
- Interactivity, individual consumer targeting and seamless
easy access services may become the most important new
value spaces
- “Content/infrastructure is already paid for”
* Source: Nokia & Mobile TV operators
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Uncertainty of Future Business
- Can broadcasters and telecom operators remain?
- What is the fundamental distinction that would allow
both to co-exist?
- Will it be a media value chain or a value web?
- Infrastructure investments and web-related services have a
fundamental different pace.
- Product & service life cycles are shortening fast (from
years to months) leaving less time for ROI
- Degree of penetration largely influenced by price of access
and services for the consumer
- Industry and media value chains are redefined and deverticalised
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Internet & Digital Content exploit these
trends more
More Content Available
Content Personalization
Internet Content & Services
More content leads to high
need for personalization
Anywhere, Anytime
Explore & Locate
Select / Playlists
Acquire
Change
Share
Conventional Content & services
Personalize and give me my content so I can enjoy and share it where & when I want
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
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Advertising Industry will pass through most
fundamental change in its history
from
towards
Product based
Storytelling based
Top down broadcast
Interactive network
Push, preach, persuade,
seduce
Pull, teach, co-create,
Identity-transformation
Consumption
Long term support in lifestyle
Attraction &
interaction
Mass media segmented
message
Invited unique participation
Communication
& seduction
Artificial slice of life
Idealised/homogeneous
consumer
Customer of product
Co-creative reality & truth
Maintained relation
Heterogeneous consumer
Partner
Brand
Channel
Mechanism
Offer
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Where is the money?
• What are consumers willing to pay for?
– The type of access service?
• Fast access – wireless access – anywhere access – easy/seamless access
– The content?
• Pay and download content/ Pay less and stream content
• Pay and get high quality
• Pay and avoid advertisements
• DRM expected to disappear due to consumer preference for free content Artists
more willing to prefer large audiences above royalties to increase their market value
thereby generating more income
– Nothing?
• Highly targeted advertisements focused on engaging individuals and/or
regional/global coverage could do the trick
• What is the value of (content) quality?
– Lower quality in audio (MP3 vs CD) was accepted to get it fast/more/free
– Lower quality in video (YouTube) seems acceptable (when it is free)
– Pay for fast high quality could be acceptable
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Conditions for a bright future
• Mobile communication created a tremendous new products and
services market ( larger than consumer electronics and IT products
and services markets combined).
… but success was built on a paradigm shift in the traditional
telecom market
• Personal TV could represent an even larger business
opportunity but seems to require a paradigm shift in
the broadcast, media and advertising industry.
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Conclusions
• One thing is sure: a lot will become even more unsure in the coming
years
• Different scenarios for the value chain need to be explored
• Flexibility is key:
– Rapidly switching roadmaps /business models
– Willingness to leave old paradigms
• Ultimately the user will define the direction …
to understand and know what he prefers : extensive consumer insight
research and experimenting in the market will be needed
The ROADIBROM research themes give a good first direction …
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing
Let’s do this
Consumer Research
and
Market Experiments
TOGETHER
Thanks!
Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Beijing