Transcript Структура финансовых операций и инструм

WORLD CRISIS
AND
BUSINESS IN BELARUS
Mikhail Kovalev
Consumption and Savings Problems
high consumption level
hypothec boom
low savings level (mainly USA)
Barrier 1: restriction of capital in hypothec
Barrier 2: risk retail banking and rate of
savings
Monetary Problem
World GDP2008= $60 689 bln – nominal
= $69 000 bln - by PPP
World Trade2008≈$14 000 bln
FDI ≈ $1 000 bln
New approach to the equation of quantity of money:
P∙GDP=MV
Country
M3/GDP
Japan
134
UK
112
US
65
China
Ukraine
30
Russia
27
Belarus
15
USD Problem
USD: - world currency
USD: - national currency
Senyorage
Debt – $11 000 bln
China, Russia – new world currency
(example: SDR)
Dynamics of Payment Balance in the USA
-417
-455
-385
-430
2000
1084
2001
1450
1370
975
-460
-485
2002
-522
-551
-640
-670
2003
1399
1017
1514
1157
1769
2004
1283
-755
-787
2005
-811
-838
-788
-815
2006
-673
-681
1070
1997
1446
2204
1628
2337
2007
1836
2517
2008
Deficit of trade balance
Deficit$ofmln
current account
Import
Export
Creditors Ranking of the USA
Government Treasury, $ bln
1.
China
739,6
2.
Japan
634,8
3.
Oil Exorters
186,3
4.
Offshore
176,6
5.
Brasil
133,5
6.
UK
124,2
7.
Russia
119,6
8.
Luxemburg
87,2
9.
Taiwan
73,3
10
Hong Kong
71,7
11
Switzerland
62,1
12
Germany
56,4
Total:
3073
Source: finance.yahoo.com
Liberal Rules and ICT-opportunities turned the
capital into the speculative one’s and create
disbalance of real and financial sector of economics
Derivatives Growth (bln of contracts)
16
14
12
12
10
8
6
4
15
10
8
8,5
6
2
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Bank of International Settlements, www.bis.org
Source: Bank of International Settlements
Demographic disbalance
Population size 6,5 / 10 bln.
3/5 bln.
GDP by PPP in 2008. $69 000 bln
The rest of the
world
14,3
4 Silver billions
Golden
Billion
2,5/4 bln.
BRIC (Brazil + Russia + India +
China) + other asian countries
2 + 2,3 +
3,3 + 7,9
+ 2 = 17,5
1/1 bln.
USA + EU 27 + Japan
+ Canada + Australia +
et alias.
14,3 + 15,3 +
4,3 + 1,3 + 0,8
+ 1,2 = 37,2
GDP by Purchasing-Power-Parity of world leading
countries in 2008,
$ bln. (Belarus – $118,9 billion)
others
19,5
Japan
4,4
Brazil
2
Russia
2,3
USA
14,3
India
3,3
EU27
15,3
China
7,9
Consensus Prognosis
GDP Growth
1Q09
09
10
11
USA
-5.7
-3.0
1.4
2.4
Eurozone
-2.5
-3.7
0.4
1.2
EU27
-2.4
Japan
-4
-6.3
1.0
1.3
China
6.1
7.0
7.9
9.0
Economic Development Indicators of
particular countries in 2008
Export of
goods and
services
(billion of
$)
GDP by
PPP
(thousand
of $ per
capita)
Country
Population
(mln)
Area
(km2)
GDP by
PPP
(billion of
intern. $)
World
6 750
149 000 000
68 996
14 838
10.2
EU 27
500
4 324 782
15 247
2037
30.5
USA
306
9 826 630
14 264
1427
46.9
China
1 328
9 600 000
7 916
1067
6.1
Japan
127
377 873
4 354
773
34.1
India
1 148
3 287 240
3 288
194
2.8
Russia
142
17 075 400
2 260
334,6
15.9
Ukraine
46
603 628
337
49
7.3
Belarus
9.6
207 600
119
22
12.3
BUSINESS IN
BELARUS
Business in Belarus
Human and Labour Resources
Population – 9,6 mln (UN: 2050 – 7,7 mln)
Urban population – 73,4%
Workforce – 4,5 mln
Literacy – 99,6%
0,95
0,935
Human Development Rank 2008
0,9
0,87
0,862
0,85
0,804
0,802
Belarus (64)
Russia (67)
0,8
0,788
0,75
0,7
Germany (23)
Poland (37)
Lithuani (43)
Ukraine (76)
Business in Belarus
Unemployment rate
4,5
%
4
4,0
3,5
2,9
2,7
3
2,3
2,5
3,1
2,8
2
1,5
2,1
1
2,1 2,1
1,9
1,2
2,3
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,8
1
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Q1
Source: IMF
Business in Belarus
GDP Growth
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
%
11,4
11,4
9,9
10
8,3
9,4
5,8
7,0
5,0
2,8
3,4
8,1
5,0
1,2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Q1
Business in Belarus
Energy Shock
16
14
13,7
12,1
12
10,4
10
8
4,5
6
4
2
0
2,6
2,1
0,78
0,7
1996
2,2
1,3
0,5
0,5
2000
0,5
2001
2,3
1,6
0,5
2002
export (oil products)
3
2,2
0,7
2003
3,7
0,9
2004
7,3
5,5
5,4
0,9
2005
import (oil products)
8,4
2,1
2,7
1
2006
2007
gas import
2008
$ bln.
42
Business in Belarus
The secret of success: export
Problem: high import
41,8
37,3
37
32
27
30,4
27,6
23,8
22
22,2
18,2
17,2
17
12,2
12
5,8
7
2,6
2
-3
2,2
7,3
3,2
2,8
5,3
6,7
8,7
7,8
8,1
7,1
6,7
6,4
8,1
9
7,6
8,5
9,8
17,9
15,7
11,6
9,3
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Export
Import
Business in Belarus
The secret of success: export
16000
14428
14000
12000
9234
10000
7664
8000
6371
5078
6000
4000
2000
1334 1277 1098 1171 1338
2071 2147
2727
3623
232 241 348 421 516
753 731 812
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
export in EU27
including Germany
Business in Belarus
The secret of success: growth of
agricultural production
%
12,6
9,3
10
6,6
2,4
5
-0,7
0
-5
-4,7
-4,9
1,7
4,1
8,9
-8,3
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
-10
1,8 0,7
6,0
20
3
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
0
20 8
09
,I
V
15
6,6
Business in Belarus
The secret of success: export of
agricultural production
2500
2235
$ mln
2000
1816
1500
1329
1484
1144
1000
500
832
503
605
638
2001
2002
0
2000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Business in Belarus
The secret of success: knowledge
ex. Export of IT-service in
1994 - 2008
200
160
150
94
100
50
0,2
1,1
2,1
5,9
3,9
5,3
26,4
17,4
17,5
6,7 12,3
49,5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
FDI dynamics in Belarus in 20012008, mln. $
2500
FDI, min. S
374,7%
500%
Grow th rates, % 404%
2279,8 400%
2000
300%
1500
1769
200%
1000
500
-20%
96
-62,4%
453
2002
100%
16%
28,9%
170
0
2001
-4,6%
36,2%
2003
163
303
2004
2005
0%
351
-100%
2006
2007
2008
Largest M&A 2007-2008
GazProm is in the process of acquiring a control share holding of
BelTransGaz ($2, 5 billion)
Russian banks strengthened their position in Belarus through
acquisitions of controlling stakes in 4 medium-sized Belarusian banks
(VTB, Alfa Bank, VneshEconomBank, RosBank)
Mobilkom Austria Group acquired 70% of a mobile service provider
«MDC»(Velcom) for EUR 730 million
Turk Cell acquired formerly state- owned mobile phone operator BEST
for USD 600 million
Home Credit Group (Czech Republic) acquired the controlling stake in
«Lorobank»
Getin Holding S.A. (Poland) acquired 75.04% stake in a Belarusian
«Sombelbank»
Baltic Beverages Holding (Carlsberg) acquired JSC «Alivariya» (3d
largest beer-producer in Belarus)
Heineken NV bought Syabar brewery, (2d-largest beer brand in Belarus)
Heineken NV invested 6.4 Euro mln. In 51% stake in Rechitsa Brewery
Olvi plc (Finland) acquired a majority holding in a Belarusian brewery
Lidskoe Pivo for 16 mln.$
ay
,6
,3
,5
14
69
13
34
12
99
500
17
37
,1
19
21
1000
au
gu
se
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pt
em
be
r
oc
to
be
no
r
ve
m
be
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m
nu
ar b er
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20
09
)
fe
br
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28
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,2
2000
26
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24
19
2500
ap
ril
ja
nu
ar
y
fe
br
ua
ry
m
ar
ch
$ mln
3500
Business in Belarus
Export of goods in 2008 - 2009
3000
0
nu
fe ar y
br
ua
ry
m
ar
ch
ap
ri
l
m
ay
ju
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ju
au ly
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t
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de be
ja
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nu cem
ar b e
y
(2 r
0
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br
ua
r
m y
ar
ch
ja
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
26
51
23
,
28 7
,2
83
29
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39
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,5
57
28
,
52
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74
30
83
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33
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82
32
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4,
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30
69
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36
30
19
50
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26
3
54
62
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0,
5
19
33
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17
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2
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17
42
37
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28
12
99
37
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17
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61
13
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19
14
77
69
,2
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22
30
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3500
26
4000
,6
4500
24
19
$ mln
Business in Belarus
Export – Import of goods in 2008-2009гг.
Export
Import
Business in Belarus
Gross External Debt
$ bln
14,8
17
15
12,5
13
11
9
6,8
4,2
2,8
2003
4,9
5,1
9,5
7,9
7
5
3,8
4,8
3
3,7
1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Business in Belarus
70
64
60
47
$ thousand
50
40
45
36
35
30
15,6
20
10
16
12,3
1,5
3,6
0
Germany
USA
GDP by PPP per capita
Poland
Belarus
Gross External Debt per capita
Russia
Exports and Imports split by sector,
2008
export
37,9
import
36,4
Mineral products
Machinery, equipment and
vehicles
18,7
24,3
Other
18,6
Chemical products, rubber,
fibers, and filements
18,9
11,7
Food and agricultural raw
materials
6,8
7,9
17,7
Business in Belarus
Dynamics of reserves in foreign currency
(2008 – 2009)
$ bln
3,4
3,6
3,6
3,3
2,6
2,4
2,8
ap
ril
4,1
au
gu
st
se
pt
em
be
oc r
to
b
no er
ve
m
be
de
r
ce
m
be
r
ja
nu
ar
fe y
br
ua
ry
m
ar
ch
4,1
ju
ly
4,1
ju
ne
3,9
m
ay
ap
ril
3,9
5
4
3 3
2
1
Business in Belarus
Ease of Doing Business - Global rank
180
159
160
145
140
120
120
103
100
85
80
70
68
60
40
20
ta
n
is
Ta
jik
ne
U
kr
ai
si
a
R
us
ov
a
ol
d
M
ar
us
B
el
an
hs
t
K
yr
gy
ak
K
az
Si
n
ga
p
or
e
0
s
1
Business in Belarus
Rank of World Bank
2007
2008
2009
Ease of Doing business
129
Starting a Business
148
121
97
Dealing with Construction Permits
84
93
65
Employing Workers
31
48
49
Registering Property
96
35
14
Getting Credit
171
126
109
Protecting Investors
142
101
104
Paying Taxes
175
181
181
Trading Across Borders
113
142
134
Enforcing Contracts
36
15
14
Closing a Business
91
72
71
85
Business in Belarus
Source: Doing Business, World Bank
Business in Belarus