Transcript Document

Singularity Economics
An Evolutionary Developmental Proposal
John Smart
April 2004, Los Angeles, CA
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Institute for Accelerating Change

IAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of
systems theorists and lay futurists exploring
accelerating change.

First, we practice "developmental" future studies,
that is, we focus primarily on highly probable,
convergent, and apparently permanent forces and
emerging capacities of our onrushing future.

Second, we ask what “evolutionary” choices we
have within humanity's apparently continually
accelerating technological developmental framework.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Intro to Future Studies

Four Types
–
–
–
–
Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art)
Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)
Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)
Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends)
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The last is the critical one for singularity studies
It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses
Accelerating, increasingly efficient, and increasingly
local computation is apparently the fundamental
meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Problem: The Prediction Wall
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Ten-year business plans (1950's) have been
replaced with ten-week (quarterly) plans (2000's).
Planning beyond two years in some technology fields
can be unwise speculation.
There is a growing inability of human minds to
imagine our future, a time that must apparently
include greater-than-human technological
sophistication and intelligence.
Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the
Future," 2001, notes that even our science fiction
writers have mostly abandoned any attempt to portray
the hyperaccelerated technological world of fifty years
hence.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
What Can We Predict?
Let’s Focus on Four Things. First:
1. The History of Continuous Acceleration
2. The Theory of Evolutionary Development
3. Examples of Hierarchical Emergence
We’ll use these three subjects to make some
broad comments on:
4. The Future of Automation and Economics
Your feedback is most welcome.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
A Brief History of Acceleration
Something Curious Is Going On
Unexplained.
(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
A U-Shaped Curve?
Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
100,000 yrs: Matter
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
Developmental Singularity
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
8B yrs: Earth
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Big Bang to Complex Stars:
The Slowing Phase
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Life to Intelligent Technology:
The Accelerating Phase
Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month is
roughly 1
billion years.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology,
Technology, Economics, and Politics

Eldredge and Gould
(Biological Species)

Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)
(income distribution  technology, econ, politics)
Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)
80% Equilibrium (Evolution)
Suggested Reading:
For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma
For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More © 2004 Accelerating.org
Saturation: A Biological Lesson
How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing
Curious Facts:
1. Universal structure permits each new computational substrate to
be greatly more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence,
Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our
80% Adaptive Strategy
While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to
improve our intelligence, interdependence, and
resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is
that successful solutions always increase MEST
efficiency, they “do more with less.” Strategies to
capitalize on this:
 Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill.
 Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions.
 Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency.
 Build a national culture that rewards refinements.
Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source
Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling.
30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Brief History of Accelerating Change
Billion
Years Ago
Generations Ago
12
Big Bang (MEST)
11.5
Milky Way (Atoms)
8
Sun (Energy)
4.5
Earth (Molecules)
3.5
Bacteria (Cell)
2.5
Sponge (Body)
0.7
Clams (Nerves)
0.5
Trilobites (Brains)
0.2
Bees (Swarms)
0.100
Mammals
0.002
Humans, Tools &
Clans Co-evolution
100,000
Speech
750
Agriculture
500
Writing
400
Libraries
40
Universities
24
Printing
16
Accurate Clocks
5
Telephone
4
Radio
3
Television
2
Computer
1
Internet/e-Mail
0
GPS, CD, WDM
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Observation 1:
Tech Interval Time Compression
3 million years ago
collective rock throwing; early stone use
1.5 million years ago lever, wedge, inclined plane
500,000 years ago
control of fire
50,000 years ago
bow and arrow; fine tools
5,000 years ago
wheel and axle; sail
500 years ago
printing press with movable type; rifle
50 years ago
commercial digital computers
10 years ago
commercial internet
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Obs. 2: Continuous Tech Innovation
(Even 400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Technological or Sociotechnological Innovation
Date (A.D.), Location
Alchemy (pre-science) develops a wide following
Constantinople University
Powers and Roots (Arybhata)
Heavy plow; horse shoes; practical horse harness
Wooden coffins (Alemanni)
Draw looms (silk weaving)
Decimal reckoning
Canterbury Monastery/University
Book printing
Suan-Ching (Science Encyclopedia)
Originum Etymologiarum Liibri XX (Sci. Encyc.)
First surgical procedures
Water wheel for milling (Medieval energy source)
Stirrup arrives in Europe from China
Early Chemistry (Abu Masa Dshaffar)
410, Europe
425, Turkey
476, India
500, Europe
507, Germany
550, Egypt
595, India
598, England
600, China
619, China
622, Spain
650, India
700, Europe
710, Europe
720, Mid-East
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Medicine, Astronomy, Math, Optics, Chemistry
Hanlin Academy
Pictorial Book Printing
Iron and smithing become common; felling ax
Chemistry (Jabir)
Mayan Acropoli (peak)
Algebra (Muhammed al Chwarazmi)
Ptolemaic Astronomy; Soap becomes common
Rotary grindstone to sharpen iron
Paper money
Salerno University
Iron becomes common; Trebuchets
Astrolabe (navigation)
Angkor Thom (city)
New Mathematics and Science (Jahiz, Al-Kindi)
Viking shipbuilding
Paper arrives in Arab world
750, Arab Spain
750, China
765, Japan
770, Europe
782, Mid-East
800, Mexico
810, Persia
828, Europe
834, Europe
845, China
850, Italy
850, Europe
850, Mid-East
860, Cambodia
870, Mid-East
900, Europe
900, Egypt
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Salerno Medical School
Linens and woolens
First European bridges
Arithmetical notation brought to Europe by Arabs
1,000 volume encyclopedia
First Mayan and Tiuanaco Civilizations
Horizontal loom
Astrolabe arrives in Europe
Greek medicine arrives in Europe (Constantine)
Water-driven mechanical clock
Antidotarum (2650 medical prescriptions)
Bologna University
Mariner's compass
Town charters granted (protecting commerce)
Al-Idrisi's "Geography"
Oxford University
Vertical sail windmills
900, Italy
942, Flanders
963, England
975, Europe
978, China
1000, Cent./S.America
1000, Europe
1050, Europe
1070, Europe
1090, China
1098, Italy
1119, Italy
1125, Europe
1132, France
1154, Italy
1167, England
1180, Europe
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Glass mirrors
Second Mayan Civilization
Cambridge University
Arabic numerals in Europe (Leonardo Fibonacci)
Tiled roofs
Cotton manufacture
Coal mining
Roger Bacon, our first scientist (Opus; Communia)
Goose quill writing pen
The inquisition begins using instruments of torture
Tradesman guilds engage in street fighting over turf
Toll roads
Human dissection
Wood block printing; spectacles
Standardization of distance measures (yard, acre)
Use of gunpowder for firearms (Berthold Schwarz)
Sawmill; wheelbarrow; cannon (large and hand)
1180, England
1190, Cent. America
1200, England
1202, England
1212, England
1225, Spain
1233, England
1250, England
1250, Italy
1252, Spain
1267, England
1269, England
1275, England
1290, Italy
1305, England
1313, Germany
1325, Europe
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Pisa and Grenoble Universities; Queens College
First scientific weather forecasts (William Merlee)
Mechanical clock reaches Europe
Blast furnaces; cast iron explodes across Europe
Steel crossbow first used in war
Vienna, Hiedelberg, and Cologne Universities
Incorporation of the Fishmonger's Company
Johann Gutenberg, inventor of mass printing, born
1330, Europe
1337, England
1354, France
1360, Europe
1370, Europe
1380, Europe
1384, England
1396, Germany
Lesson: Tech innovation appears to be a developmental process,
independent of Wars, Enlightenments, Reformations, Inquisitions,
Crusades, Subjugations, and other aspects of our cyclic
evolutionary ideological, cultural, and economic history.
Tech advances are something we consistently choose, even
unconsciously, regardless of who is in power, because they have
strong "non-zero sum" effects on human aspirations.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration

Moore's Law - Miniaturization
 Processing, Storage, ...
 Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months

Metcalf's Law - Interconnection
 Value of a network increases as the square of the number
connections

Gilder's Law - Quantization
 Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months

Negroponte's Law - Digitization
 Superiority of "bits over atoms"
 Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where
ideas are ultimate raw material
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Transistor Doublings (2 years)
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Processor Performance (1.8 years)
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2004 Accelerating.org
DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Many Unexpected Physical Processes
are Moore’s-Related: Dickerson’s Law
Richard Dickerson,
1978, Cal Tech:
Protein crystal
structure solutions
grow according to
n=exp(0.19y1960)
This predicts 14,201 crystal structure entries online in
the international Protein Data Bank (PDB) by 2002. The
actual number was 14,250, just 49 more.
The curve has been surprisingly consistent.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Hans Moravec, Robot, 1999
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Technological Singularity
Each unique physicalcomputational substrate
appears to have its own
“capability curve.”
The information inherent in
these substrates is apparently
not made obsolete, but is
instead incorporated into the
developmental architecture of
the next emergent system.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Henry Adams, 1909:
The First Singularity Theorist
The final Ethereal
Phase would last
only about four
years, and
thereafter "bring
Thought to the
limit of its
possibilities."
Wild speculation
or computational
reality?
Too early to tell,
at present.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Population History
Positive
feedback loop:
Agriculture,
Colonial
Expansion,
Economics,
Scientific
Method,
Industrialization,
Politics,
Education,
Healthcare,
Information
Technologies,
etc. © 2004 Accelerating.org
What Stopped it?
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Theory of
Evolutionary Development
Evolution vs. Development
“The Twin’s Thumbprints”
Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints
Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.
Development creates the predictable global patterns.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development:
The Two Basic Systems Processes
Evolution
Development
Chance
Randomness
Variety/Many
Possibilities
Uniqueness
Uncertainty
Accident
Bottom-up
Divergent
Differentiation
Necessity
Determinism
Unity/One
Constraints
Sameness
Predictability
Design (self-organized or other)
Top-Down
Convergent
Integration
Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting
models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that
both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.
The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Multicellularity
Discovered
Complex Environmental Interaction
Cambrian Explosion
Bacteria 
Insects
Invertebrates
Selection/Emergence/
Phase Space Collapse/
MEST Collapse
Development
Vertebrates
570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since!
Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).
Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.”
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Replication & Variation
“Natural Selection”
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
Left and Right Hands of
“Evolutionary Development”
Left Hand
New Computat’l Phase Space Opening
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Right Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Marbles, Landscape, and Basins
(Complex Systems, Evolution, Development)
The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST
compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of the basin.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Simplicity and Complexity
Universal Evolutionary Development is:
Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between
Simple Math
Of the Very Small
Simple Math
Of the Very Large
(Big Bang,
Quantum Mechanics,
Chemistry)
(Classical Mechanics,
General Relativity)
Complex Math
Of the In Between
(Chaos, Life, Humans,
Coming Technologies)
Ian Stewart, What Shape is a Snowflake?, 2001
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Meaning of Simplicity
(Wigner’s ladder)
Complex systems
are evolutionary.
Simple systems
are developmental.
Evolution
Development
Non-Pattern
Pattern
Variety
Uniformity
Symmetry
Symmetry Breaking
Chaotic Math Simple Math
The universe is painting complex local evolutionary pictures, on a
simple universe-wide developmental scaffolding.
The picture (canvas/intelligence, in the middle) is
mathematically complex (Gödelian incomplete),
and trillions of times evolutionarily unique.
The framework (easel/cosmic structure, very large,
& paint/physical laws, MEST structure, very small)
is uniform, and simple to understand.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Examples of
Hierarchical Emergence
Systems Theory
Systems Theorists Make Things Simple
(sometimes too simple!)
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
— Albert Einstein
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Cosmic Embryogenesis
(in Three Easy Steps)
Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Tielhard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Systems For Universal Computation (8)
(a.k.a. “Substrates”)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Substrate
I.P. System
Galactic-Subatomic
Stellar-Elemental
Planetary-Molecular
Biomass-Unicellular
Neurologic-Multicellular
Cultural-Linguistic
Computational-Technologic
AI-Hyperconscious
"Galactic"
"Atomic"
"Chemetic"
"Genetic"
"Dendritic"
"Memetic"
"Algorithmic“
"Technetic"
Note: Each is Vastly More MEST-Compressed and IP-Enabled
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Five Complex Adaptive Systems
Individual (Vitality,Creativity,Spirituality)
 Family/Relationship (Culture,Psychology)
 Tribal/Nation (Politics,Economics)
 Species/Planet (Peace,Globalization,Environment)
 Universal (Science,Technology,Computation)

–
Question: Which is unlike the others? This last
system is growing apparently asymptotically in
local capacities
These five systems may exist on all Earth-like
planets (e.g., astrobiologically developed).
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Three Systems of Social Change

Sociotechnological
(dominant since 1950!)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables, how
inexpensively it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power
of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Developmental Spiral
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Hominid Age
Homo Sapiens Sapiens
Tribal Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
25,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Gently Tightening Subcycles
Period
Subcycle
Some Features
1390-1500, 110 yrs
1500-1600, 100 yrs
1600-1690, 90 yrs
1690-1770, 80 yrs
1770-1840, 70 yrs
1840-1900, 60 yrs
1900-1950, 50 yrs
1950-1990, 40 yrs
1990-2020, 30 yrs
2020-2040, 20 yrs
2040-2050, 10 yrs
2050-2060, 5/2/1
Pre-Scientific Rev.
1st Scientific Rev.
2nd Scientific Rev.
3rd Scientific Rev.
1st Industrial Rev.
2nd Industrial Rev.
3rd Industrial Rev.
1st Computer Rev.
2nd Computer Rev.
1st Symbiotic Rev.
2nd Symbiotic Rev.
Autonomy Rev’s
Oresme, Coord.Geom., Series
Copernicus, Vesalius
Bruno, Kepler, Descartes
Newton, Linnaeus
“CWT: Coal, Wood, Textiles”
“SST: Steam,Steel,Telegrph”
“ICE: Int.Comb,Chem, Electr”
“Dig.Comp,Engrg,MNC’s,TV”
“Planetnet, MIME, Security”
“GUI,LUI,NUI, Peace/Justice”
“Coll. Intell., Minor Magic”
“Autonomy-Under-the-Hood”
Circa 2060
Tech Singularity
“AI,Earthpark”(Next:Uploads)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?
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A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020
–
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A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040
–
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LUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation,
Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades.
A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050
–
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1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd
gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins.
LUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature
Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing.
2050: Era of Strong Autonomy
–
Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles,
each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Tech Singularity – Overview

Circa 2060: Technological Singularity
–
–
The AI (shortly thereafter, AI's) claim selfawareness. True, 3rd-gen uploading begins.
World population hits its maximum (2030-2050),
declines increasingly rapidly thereafter.
2040
Any Fixed-Complexity
Replicating Substrate
(e.g. Homo Sapiens)
1970
“The Envelope Curve is
Local Universal Computation”
Sources:
Warren Sanderson, Nature, 412, 2001
Tom McKendree, Hughes Aircraft, 1994
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Types of Singularities
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Mathematical
Physical
Cosmological (our best model?)
Computational
Developmental (our best model?)
Technological
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"singular" human-competitive A.I. Emergence
discontinuous (physical-dynamical singularity)
unknowable (computational-cognitive singularity)
convergent (developmental singularity)
hierarchical (developmental singularity)
instantaneous (developmental singularity)
reproductive (developmental singularity)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Sagan, Chaisson, Moore, Vinge
Chaisson’s Phi, a Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Plants
Animals/Genetics
Brains (Human)
Culture (Human)
Int. Comb. Engines
Jets
Pentium Chips
(ergs/second/gram)
0.5
2 (unexpected?)
75
900
20,000(10^4)
150,000(10^5)
500,000(10^5)
(10^6)
(10^8)
(10^11)
Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Growth and Limits of Computation
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Universal Computing to Date: 10^120 logical ops
– Turing, Von Neumann, Ed Fredkin, John Wheeler
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Digital Computing to Date: 10^31 logical ops
– Half this was produced in the last 2 year doubling.
300 Doublings to a “Past-Closed” Omega Comp.
– Understanding most Developmental History and
some of Evol. History. (e.g., CA’s, Gen. Engrg.)
Computing right down to Planck Scale?
– No Minimum Energy to Send a Bit (Landauer)
– Quantum and Femto-Scale Processes
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Sources: Seth Lloyd, “Computational Capacity of the Universe, Phys.Rev.Lett., 2002
Bennett & Landauer, “Fund. Phys. Limits of Computation, Sci. Am., July 1985
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Binding Energy (of Computational Structure)
Systems theorist Ervin Laszlo (Evolution, 1987) notes each hierarchically
emergent universal substrate greatly decreases the binding energy of its
diverse (evolutionary) physical configurations. Examples:
 matter (earliest emerging physical substrate), e.g., protons and neutrons
within the nucleus of atoms, is bound by nuclear exchange ("strong") forces
 atoms are joined by much weaker ionic or covalent (electromagnetic) bonds
 cells within multicellular organisms are connected "another dimension down
the scale of bonding energy."
 memes encoded in a vesicular-morphologic language of synaptic weights and
dendritic arborization involve vastly less binding energy still
 technemes, in communicable electronically-encoded algorithms and logic
circuitry involve orders of magnitude less binding energy yet again.
 gravitons. Note gravity is the 2nd weakest of the five known forces (only dark
energy is weaker). Yet in Smolin’s model gravity guides us to black holes as a
developmental attractor for substrate computation in this universe.
In other words, the MEST efficiency, or energy cost of computation, of
learning (encoding, remembering, reorganizing) rapidly tends to zero in
emergent substrates as we approach the developmental singularity.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding MEST Compression
We
End Up
Here
The Finite
Universe Box
Six Billion
Years Ago
MEST compression/Time
© 2004 Accelerating.org
A Developmental Universe?
Developmental Lesson: A Possible Destiny of Species
MEST compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, Immunity
Inner Space, Not Outer Space (Mirror Worlds, Age of Sims)
Black Hole Equivalent Transcension?
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Just what exactly are black holes?
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Lee Smolin’s Answer:
“Cosmological Natural Selection”
At least 8 of the 20 “standard model”
universal parameters appear tuned for:
– black hole production
– multi-billion year old Universes
(capable of creating Life)
The Life of the Cosmos, 1996
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Developmental Singularity – Overview

Post 2060
–
–
Full AI Sim of Human Thoughtspace (ref.: Our multimillion
dollar sims of bacterial metabolome)
Historical Computational Closure (astronomy, geography,
brains, etc.). Maps rapidly close the very large, and very
small, leaving only the very complex…
"Inner space," not outer space, now appears to be our constrained
developmental destiny, incredibly soon in cosmologic time. "
For astronomical closure, see Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery, 1981
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Physics of a “MESTI” Universe
Physical Driver:
 MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density
Emergent Properties:
 Information Intelligence (World Models)
 Information Interdepence (Ethics)
 Information Immunity (Resiliency)
 Information Incompleteness (Search)
A Speculation in Information Theory:
Entropy = Negentropy
Universal Energy Potential is Conserved.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Future of
Automation and Economics
World Economic
Performance
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks
very smooth on a
macroscopic scale.
The “knee of the
curve” occurs at the
industrial revolution,
circa 1850.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Finite-Time Singularities
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PDE’s of General Relativity in a mass field, leading to
black hole formation
PDE’s of Euler equations of inviscid fluids in relation
to turbulence
Rotating coin spinning down to a table (Euler’s disk)
Earthquakes (ex: slip-velocity Ruina-Dieterich friction
law and accelerating creep)
Micro-organism chemotaxis models (aggregation to
form fruiting bodies)
Stock market crashes (as catastrophic events).
Source: Didier Sornette,
Critical Phenomena in the Natural Sciences, 1999
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Finite-Time
Singularities
Trees of Evolution, 2000
Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003
Singularity 2080 ±30 years
Singularity 2050 ±10 years
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding Automation
Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost
22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing
to a Service/Information Economy.
1995-02, America lost 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China.
China lost 15 million such jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune)
Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, our
country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since
1992. (Economist)
“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in
mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also
being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by
electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on
shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is
jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we
knew on farms and the assembly line.” (Tsvi Bisk)
"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003
"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003
“The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Lesson: The Social Value of Most Jobs
Is Delivered In Mechanical Automation




90% of today's typical First
World jobs are paid for by
automation.
Developing countries are
next in line (soon or late).
The human contribution
(10%) of a First World job is
Creativity+Education
Continual education and
grants (“tax the machines”)
as final destination for
biological human beings.
Termite Mound
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Example: Automated Oil Refinery
Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,
each needing only a high school education.
The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Problem: Social Disruption Due to
Technological Revolutions
Manufacturing Globalization Revolution (1980’s)
 Info Tech (IT) Globalization Revolution (2000’s)
 LUI Automation Revolution (2020’s)

Some jobs that went to Mexican maquiladoras in the
1980’s are going to China in the 2000’s. Many of these
jobs will go to machines in the 2020’s.
What to do?
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Automation Development Creates
Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts




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Automating of farming pushed people into
factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today)
Automating of factories is pushing people
into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today)
Automating of service is pushing people into
information tech (2003, 65% of GDP is in service industry)
Automating of IT will push people into
symbiont groups (“personality capture”)
Automating of symbiont groups will push
people beyond biology (“transhumanity”)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
IT’s Exponential Economics
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Automation and the Service Society
Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio,
110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Future of Work: A Tax- and FoundationSupported Age of Global Philanthropy
A 2050 Scenario:
 As technology-driven corporate GDP grows exponentially at 4% or more
each year, historical analysis argues governments will continue to do by far
the most “social contract giving,” (100:10:1 govt. to individual to corporate
giving ratio). That would mean that the service work of many, perhaps even
most of our 200 million+ employees (total 2050 pop. of 300-400 million) circa
2050 will be supported by ‘grant proposals’ to the government to do various
public works, in the same the way our country’s 1.5 million nonprofits
presently are supported by government and foundations grants today.
 Secondarily, individuals and their foundations, with progressively increased
social leverage due to tech-aided wealth increase, will do more giving each
year. Look to individuals, with their uniquely creative and transformative
giving styles (through foundations, legacy, and discretionary giving) to
usher in an Age of Global Philanthropy in the post-LUI era after 2020.
 Finally, while corporations will bring lots of new technology-enabled wealth
into the world, governments and individuals will continue to drive
philanthropy
See: Millionaires and the Millennium, Havens and Schervish, 1999
© 2004 Accelerating.org
U.S. Transcontinental Railroad:
Promontory Point Fervor
Built by hard-working
immigrants
The Network of the 1880’s
© 2004 Accelerating.org
IT Globalization Revolution (2000-20):
Promontory Point Revisited
The more things change, the
more some things stay the
same.
The coming intercontinental internet will be built
primarily by hungry young programmers and tech
support personnel in India, Asia, third-world
Europe, Latin America, and other developing
economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals
will outnumber the First World technical support
population between five- and ten-to-one.
Consider what this means for the goals of modern
business and education: Teaching skills for global
management, partnerships, and collaboration.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Technological Globalization: Winners
Globalization is less a choice than a
statistical inevitability, once we have
accelerating, globe-spanning technologies
(communication, databases, travel) on a
planet of finite surface area (“sphericity”).
There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as:
Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets,
Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies
(The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael Mandelbaum)
Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism)
(Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen)
Global Corporations (large and small)
(New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Technological Globalization: Losers
Some of the longer term losers:
Non-Network Memes and Traditions like
Autocracy, Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism, Communism
(Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson)
 Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven
(mostly Bottom-Up) Economies (“Third World War”)
(The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin)
(Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin)
 Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions Sanctioning
Network-Breaking Violence (“Fourth World War”)
(The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington)
Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems
(excepting critical systems, like Security)
(The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Technological Globalization: Uncertains
Most elements of modern society, of course, are evolutionary,
meaning they remain ‘indeterminate’ actors which may or may
not become winners. Their fate depends critically on the paths
we choose. Some key examples:
Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity,
Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity, Compassion,
Cultural Diversity, Sustainability, Religious Tolerance
(The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks)
The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U.S. to Uganda)
(A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge)
 The Developing World
(The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Socioeconomic Globalization:
Two Dialogs of Change
Socioeconomic discussions concern both development (likely
or inevitable futures) and evolution (paths we choose toward the
attractor). Two valuable dialogs:
Fukuyama: Global democratic capitalism
is an “End of History,” probably the last
stable developmental attractor for the
structure of our human economies.
Stiglitz: This may be true, but the evolutionary
path taken can be greatly improved. Cultural
sensitivity, and more IMF/WB/WTO democracy
and transparency are needed. Expect conflict,
including some rioting in the streets, as stakes are
high for all. These are prime issues of choice.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
5 Info- and Socio-technological Levers
for Third World in the 21st Century
1. Infotech (Education, Digital Ecologies)
2. Globalization (Education, Bilingualism,
Unique Competitive Advantages)
3. Transparency (Education, Accountability,
Anti-Corruption)
4. Liberalization (Education, Legal and
Democratic Reform)
5. Compassion (Education, Rich-Poor Divides,
NGOs, Workfare, Philanthropy)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Infotech: Digital Ecologies
Key Questions: Public access? Subsidized? Education?
Strong network effects. Intrinsically socially stabilizing.
“There is no digital divide.” (Cato Institute)
Radio
Low Power TV
Groupware
Internet
IM/SMS
Avatars
Email
Cell Phones
Cordless Phones
Game PCs
Newspapers
(Program Guides)
Desktop PCs
PDAs
Social Software
© 2004 Accelerating.org
A Simulation Society (“Hyperreality”)
A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”)
“The Desert of the Real”
(Reality vs. Hyperreality)
Jean Baudrillard,
Simulacra and Simulations, 1981
David Gelernter,
Mirror Worlds, 1991
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper currency
David Brin,
The Transparent Society,
1998
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Key Shifts in the Venture Capital Market
Switching is shifting from circuits to packets.
Data, then voice; Backbone, then access
Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic.
First long haul, then metro, then local access
Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net.
IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net
Offerings are moving from products to services.
"Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, knowledge
Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico.
First Genomics, then Proteomics, then nanotechnologies
(More agent-based, more MEST-compressed, more
network-like, more information-based, more hardware
oriented.)
Source: Jim Spohrer, IBM Almaden, 2004
© 2004 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression as a Developmental
Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It!
Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech?
Inventor: Hokan Colting
21stCenturyAirships.com
180 feet diameter. Autonomous.
60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles)
Permanent geosynch. location.
Onboard solar and navigation.
A “quarter sized” receiver dish.
Q1: Which apps have been
discussed?
a.
Border monitoring
b.
City monitoring
c.
Urban broadband
d.
Early warning radar
Q2: Why are satellites presently
failing against the wired world?
Latency, bandwidth, launch costs.
MEST compression always wins.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Seeing MEST Efficiency and
Compression Everywhere in the World

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

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
Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005)
Working in Offices (or telecommuting with
coming videophone virtual offices)
Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail
Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since
2001)
Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea)
Category-Killer Stores (Home Depot, Staples)
Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell,
Amazon, eBay)
Local community/Third Space (Starbucks)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic
Technological Development


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

Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology)
Biotech (biotechnology, health care)
Infotech (computing and comm. technology)
Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors)
Sociotech (remaining technology applications)
It is easy to misspend lots of R&D money on a still-early
technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is even easier to misspend disproportionate amounts of
R&D budgets on a less centrally accelerating field.
Current examples: Nanotech and biotech
Assumption: Any nation today can far more quickly get
substantially better infotech than biotech or nanotech.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Biotech is a Saturated Substrate
21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t
accelerate biological complexity!
– Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions
– “Most complex structure in the known universe”
Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions
– Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity
We’ll learn a lot, not biologically “redesign humans”
– No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so.
– Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead.
Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity
– Biologically inspired computing. “Structural mimicry.”
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Computational Limits on
21st Century Biotechnology
Biology is Bottom-Up Designed, Massively Multifactorial,
and Nonlinearly Interdependent.
“Genetically engrd humans” (2000) are “atomic vacuum cleaners” (1950)
Increased Differentiation = Decreased Intervention
Clipping growth genes into frogs vs. mice vs. pigs. Developmental damage!
“Negative pleiotropy increases with complexity.”
Our Genetic “Legacy Code” Appears Highly Conserved
The entire human race is more genetically similar than a single baboon troop.
A massive extinction event circa 70,000 years ago is one proposal for this (ref).
Much more likely is simple developmental path dependency.
Mental Symbolic Manipulation is Deep Differentiation
Wernicke’s and Broca’s are apparent equivalent of metazoan body plans!
(see Terrence Deacon, The Symbolic Species, on co-evolution of lang. & brain)
Even with preadaptation (Gould) & requisite variety (Ashby), drift = dysfunction.
Features of Evol. and Expansion of Modern Humans, Inferred from
Genomewide Microsatellite Markers," Zhivotovsky, 2003, AJHG
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Nanotech and Cognotech are both
AI-Dependent Systems
Two Key Assumptions:

Nanotech Will Require Bottom-Up,
Biologically-Inspired AI to Realize the full
“Drexlerian” molecular assember vision
(Erik Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1986).

Cognotech (e.g., human consciousness) will
only expand past its current saturation when
we have nanotech and fine-grained AI
personality capture interfaces
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Infotech and Sociotech:
The Central Drivers

Infotech (AI):
Process Automation and Simulation 
Biologically-Inspired Computing

Sociotech (IA):
Digital Ecologies and Immunity 
The Linguistic User Interface
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Linguistic User Interface


Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech
Watch Windows 2004 become
Conversations 2020…
© 2004 Accelerating.org
De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
"No one can deny that
a world network of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven
at ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of
us. With every day that
passes it becomes a little
more impossible for us
to act or think otherwise
than collectively."
© 2004 Accelerating.org
AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”)
• AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003)
― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(now mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong
― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing
faster than decision support and agents
― Incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.)
• Computer telephony (CT) making strides
(Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys).
ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs
on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?)
• Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Robo sapiens
“Huey and Louey”
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
Aibo Soccer
© 2004 Accelerating.org
What Computers Do that Human’s Don’t
Humans Need Secrecy, Lies, Violence.
They Solve Computational Problems for Us.
(Harold Bloom, The Lucifer Principle). But Computers?
Open-Ended Learning Capacity: Hyperconsciousness
Greater Degrees of Freedom, "Perfect" Retention and Forgetting
Communication of Knowledge Structures, Not Just Language
Maintain Multiple Perspectives Until Data Come In. No Variation Cost.
Computational Ethics: NZS Games, Global Optima
Information Flow Hypothesis of Self (Boundary, Dennett)
Information Flow Hypothesis of Conflict (Rummel, etc.)
Tolerance of Human Beings vs. Human Brains (Minsky, Society of Mind)
Conclusion: AI’s Will Be Far More Interdependent,
Ethical, Empathic to Others, & Stable Than
Humans Could Ever Be, By Apparent Design
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Solution: Personality Capture and
Transhumanity
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
One Transhumanist’s Creed
“Teilhard insists that only by cultivating our
moral sense of obligation to life can we
overcome our present fear and anxiety
for the human future. For him the
fundamental law of morality is thus to
liberate that conscious energy that seeks
further to unify the world. This is the
energy of human love, an impulse toward
unity, an impulse of mind and heart that
manifests itself particularly in the relish a
person has for creative tasks undertaken
from a sense of duty.”
Ref: Prof. Joseph MacDonnell, Fairfield University
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Closing Questions
Six Questions
1. What would you monitor/scan/measure today to see if we are on an
S-Curve or J-Curve of global computational change?
2. What methods would you use to distinguish evolutionary randomness
from developmental trajectory
3. Is the tech singularity coming? What? When? Where? How? Why?
4. What are our control options for accelerating and ever more
autonomous computation?
5. What are better and worse paths of technology development?
6. How do we promote unity, balance, and accelerating compassion in
the transition?
Consider the First and Third World GDP Curves, 1900 to 2000.
A Proposition: The third world curve is largely ours to choose.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Action Items
1. Visit SingularityWatch.com
2. Sign up for our Accelerating Times Newsletter
3. Join Institute for Accelerating Change
4. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2004)
Friday-Sunday, Sept. 10-12 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA.
See Accelerating.org
5. Read Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999.
6. Feedback to [email protected]
Thank You!
© 2004 Accelerating.org