Transcript DEVIZNA IZPOSTAVLJENOST PODJETIJ, POSLOVNIH BANK IN …

NATIONAL MOTORWAY CONSTRUCTION
PROGRAM (NMCP) IN SLOVENIA
(realisation, financing, impact on national economy)
France Krizanic, Ph.D., director
Economic institute of the Law School, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Zan Oplotnik, Ph.D, researcher
Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor
Economic institute of the Law School, Ljubljana, Slovenia
November 2004
Slovenia as a crossing point for V. and X. Pan-European corridors
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE IN SLOVENIA
•AROUND 20.000 KM OF PUBLIC ROADS
•31% - state owned (6349 km)
•69% - owned by municipalities
Competent authority for state roads:
•DRSC – directorate of Republic Slovenia for Roads
•DARS – Company for Motorways (100% state owned)
(from 2003: construction agent
and concessionaire for managing and maintenence
of existing motorway network)
MOTORWAYS IN SLOVENIA
• build since 1972
• ‘big bang’ in construction – after 1994
•
in 1994 enacted first NMCP (amendments in 1998)
(National motorway construction program)
•
goal – complete ‘Slovenian Motorway Cross’
•
in 2004, new NMCP enacted for period 2004-2013
MOTORWAYS IN SLOVENIA
km
1972-1994
1994-2003
(First
NMCP)
2004-2013
(New
NMCP)
Total
(1994-2013)
Motorways
182
230
311
541
Expressways
16
29
23
52
In total:
198
259
334
600
New NMCP – enacted 2004
(Motorways constructed and anticipated till 2013)
FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF NMCP
• in 1994, NMCP was set at €2,2 bill for 440 km
• till 2002 around €2,3 bill spent for 230 km due to
some cost underestimation
• financial resources for construction (1994-2002)
budget funds –gasoline Tolar(56%)
Tolls (7%)
Commercial financial credits (22%)
EIB, EBRD, etc loans (15%)
Sources of finances for NMCP from 1994 and 2002
Other foreign
loans
7%
Domestic loans
15%
International loans
(EBRD, EIB)
15%
Toll envisaged for
motorway
construction
7%
Petrol Tolar
(budged funds)
56%
FINANCING new NMCP (2004-2013)
• €3,5 bill still needed for new NMCP completion
• new NMCP is set at around €320-420 mill per year
• sources of financing:
 budget funds fixed at €160-200 mill p.y.
Tolls – completly spend for maintenance
 ?????
POSSIBILITY OF CONCESSIONARY CONSTRUCTION?
• concessions were often mentioned in the past
• feasibility of implementation failed due to:
low daily traffic volume (10-15.000)
high frequent sections already constructed
long lasting and costly procedure
….
• concession YES, but for managing and maintenance of
existing motorway network (DARS from 2003)
FINANCING new NMCP (2004-2013)
• instead of concessions and loans from 2004:
LONG-TERM INFRASTRUCTURE BONDS
• Why?
 benevolent influence on domestic capital market
domestic private capital included
liquidity for investors through secondary market
disburden state budget
FINANCING NEW NMCP (2004-2013) in mill €
Investment
Sources of financing
Anticipated:
In NMCP
Bonds
Budget
Debt
Other
Total:
2003
388,9
27
151,4
207,9
2,6
388,9
2004
424,4
70
158,2
206,9
2,4
437,5
2005
421,9
255
163,1
44,1
4,2
466,4
2006
405
285
168,1
21,6
3,7
478,4
2007
403
300
173,4
13,8
4,2
491,4
2008
366,7
310
178,3
0
6,7
495
2009
354,7
310
184,3
0
4,9
499,2
2010
320,6
280
190
0
4,3
474,3
2011
200,6
150
194,9
0
0
344,9
2012
198
125
202,5
0
0
327,5
2013
69,9
0
195,4
0
0
195,4
Total:
3.553,7
2.112,0
1.959,6
494,3
33,0
4.598,9
MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF NMCP
• significant part of all construction works (25%)
•Analyses exhibit strong positive influence on:
total investment activity in Slovenia (+7% p.y.)
 Slovenian economic growth (+0,9% p.y.)
Employment (+0,7% p.y.)
Influence on inflation insignificant
• set-back in construction in 2001 (around –30%),
proved to be in correlation with overall economic
stagnation that year
5.5
25
5.0
20
4.5
15
4.0
10
3.5
5
3.0
0
2.5
-5
94
95
96
97
GDP growth
98
99
00
01
INVESTMENT growth
02
change in %
change in %
MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF NMCP
MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF NMCP
• due to previous experiences and positive expectations,
new NMCP is set in accordance with following:
dynamic and structure of financing adapted to
economic conditions (app. 1,6% GDP p.y.)
Avoiding excessive annual oscillations
‘soft-landing’ in last years of NMCP
Use of long-term and stable, noniflationary, private
source of financing (infrastructure bonds)
Disburden state budget